Within a very limited timeframe of only 20 years, the internet has upended entire industries from the ground up. Each and every industry will increasingly turn into a tech-industry with the dynamics of Moore's law at play. These exponential developments will only accelerate the pace of change. The questions posed to the economy and the very foundation of our society will be nothing short of earth-shattering.

1. DIGITAL TRENDS
Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns

2. PREDICTIONS...
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Niels_Bohr.jpg
„Predic(on
is
very
difficult,
especially
about
the
future.
“
Niels
Bohr
(1885
-­‐
1962)

3. PREDICTIONS...
http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T
„The
horse
is
here
to
stay
but
the
automobile
is
only
a
novelty
—a
fad.“
President
Michigan
Savings
Bank
advising
not
to
invest
in
Ford
Motor
Co.
(1903)

4. PREDICTIONS...
http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T
„There
is
not
the
slightest
indica(on
that
nuclear
energy
will
ever
be
obtainable.
It
would
mean
that
the
atom
would
have
to
be
shaSered
at
will.“
Albert
Einstein
(1932)

5. PREDICTIONS...
http://blog.4psa.com/wp-content/uploads/120919071727-ibm-ceos-tom-watson-sr-large-gallery-horizontal.jpg
„I
think
there
is
a
world
market
for
maybe
five
computers.“
Thomas
Watson
(1943)

6. PREDICTIONS...
https://ionegiantmag.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bill-gates-desk-picture.jpg
„A
computer
in
every
home.“
Bill
Gates
(1977)

7. PREDICTIONS...
http://cache.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2011/02/07/1297139267_6722/539w.jpg
„There
is
no
reason
for
any
individual
to
have
a
computer
in
his
home.“
Ken
Olsen
(1977)

8. PREDICTIONS...
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1265759/images/o-MICROSOFT-MISTAKE-facebook.jpg
„There's
no
chance
that
the
iPhone
is
going
to
get
any
significant
market
share.“
Steve
Ballmer
(2007)

9. PREDICTIONS...

10. PREDICTIONS...
http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306
„Visionaries
see
a
future
of
telecommu(ng
workers,
interac(ve
libraries
and
mul(media
classrooms.
They
speak
of
electronic
town
mee(ngs
and
virtual
communi(es.
Commerce
and
business
will
shi_
from
offices
and
malls
to
networks
and
modems.
And
the
freedom
of
digital
networks
will
make
government
more
democra(c.
Baloney.
Do
our
computer
pundits
lack
all
common
sense?
The
truth
in
no
online
database
will
replace
your
daily
newspaper,
no
CD-­‐ROM
can
take
the
place
of
a
competent
teacher
and
no
computer
network
will
change
the
way
government
works.“

11. REALLY?!

12. REASONS
Companies
are
planning
for
con(nuous/linear
development
–
while
the
world
is
increasingly
discon(nuous/exponen(al
„If
the
rate
of
change
on
the
outside
exceeds
the
rate
of
change
on
the
inside,
the
end
is
near.“
Jack
Welch
http://www.mrgoodacre.com/uploads/1/0/5/3/10539489/7363039_orig.png?1

13. REASONS
“How
did
you
go
bankrupt?”
“Two
ways.
Gradually,
then
suddenly.”
―
Ernest
Hemingway,
The
Sun
Also
Rises

14. REASONS
1. Innovator‘s Dilemma

15. REASONS
2. Technology-adoption

16. REASONS
3. Illusion of linearity
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐management-­‐teams.html

17. REASONS
„We
are
fine!“
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐management-­‐teams.html

18. REASONS
„We
are
fucked!“
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐management-­‐teams.html

19. ASCI RED: FIRST TERAFLOP COMPUTER 1997
http://www.top500.org/static/media/uploads/20/top-1-systems/asci-red-sandia-national-laboratory/asci%20red5_800x600.jpg
• 1.8
teraflops
• 10.000
Intel
Pen(um
Pro
• Size:
Tennis-­‐Court
• Energy
consump(on:
800
houses
• Cost:
$55
million

20. PS3: JUST 8 YEARS LATER (2005)
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3
• 1.8
teraflops
• Cost:
$399

21. DNA-SEQUENCING
http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg
• Cost
2007:
$10
million

22. DNA-SEQUENCING
http://www.nature.com/news/technology-the-1-000-genome-1.14901
http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg
• Cost
2015:
$1.000

23. LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/9/92/Texaco1955wide.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20080110081542
• 30
years:
1955
-­‐>
1985

24. LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif
• 30
years:
1985
-­‐>
2015

25. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
http://www.ventures-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/stack-of-paper.jpg
• How
many
folds
to
the
moon?

26. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif
http://www.codersrevolution.com/blog/will-a-piece-of-paper-folded-42-times-reach-the-moon

27. REPLACING JOBS
„The
role
of
humans
as
the
most
important
factor
of
produc(on
is
bound
to
diminish
in
the
same
way
that
the
role
of
horses
in
agricultural
produc(on
was
first
diminished
and
then
eliminated
by
the
introduc(on
of
tractors.“
Wassily
Leon(ef
(1983)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/aa/Leontief-Harvard.jpg

28. REPLACING JOBS
In
the
next
two
decades,
47
per
cent
of
employment
is
‘in
the
high-­‐risk
category’,
meaning
it
is
‘poten(ally
automatable’.
http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/future-employment-how-susceptible-are-jobs-computerisation-oms-working-paper-dr-carl-benedikt-frey-m

29. REPLACING JOBS

30. MOBILITY
Cars:
$9
trillion
market
http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/global/global-car-automobile-sales.html
http://i.cbc.ca/1.1508368.1381554204!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/hi-manufacturing852-cp01542.jpg

31. MOBILITY
1.2
million
deaths
related
to
car
accidents/year
(40%
alcohol/93%
distracted)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN44bL3reCo
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Head_On_Collision.jpg

32. MOBILITY
Driven
just
4%
of
the
(me
Cost
of
$9.000/year
http://qz.com/264781/the-latest-attack-on-americas-car-culture-comes-from-wall-street/
http://www.autoblog.com/2012/05/04/average-cost-of-car-ownership-rises-to-8-946-per-year/
http://demonsofdistraction.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/media/2011/11/LostCarParkingLot.jpg

33. MOBILITY
Self-­‐driving
cars:
99%
fewer
cars
required
Parking
lots
no
longer
required
(10%
city
space)
http://www.detroitchamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/AutofactsAnalystNoteUSFeb2013FINAL.pdf
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/

34. ENERGY
$6 trillion market (10% GDP)
$6
trillion
market
(10%
GDP)

35. ENERGY
http://www.gianvonplanta.ch/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/fukushima.jpg

36. ENERGY
http://rameznaam.com/2011/03/17/expis-moores-law-really-a-fair-comparison-for-solar/

37. ENERGY
http://www.digitaltonto.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/solar-cost_curve.jpg

38. ENERGY
http://icdn3.digitaltrends.com/image/tesla-powerwall-7-970x548-c.jpg

39. HEALTH
$7.5
trillion
market
From
one-­‐for-­‐all
to
personalized
medicine
From
treatment
to
preven(on

40. HEALTH
$258
bn.
+
130,000
deaths
due
to
non-­‐prescribed
medica(on
just
in
US
No
doctors
required
within
20
years?
http://www.marsdd.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/marsblog-GivenImaging-PillCam.png
http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/quantified-self/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTtL-iAXJxo

41. INSURANCE
Sensors
everywhere
http://iot.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/the-internet-of-things.jpg
http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/redefinition-privacy/

42. TELCOS
$33
bn.
lost
SMS
revenues
http://www.bitkom.org/de/presse/8477_82223.aspx
http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/whatsapp-sails-past-sms-but-where-does-messaging-go-next
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-21/whatsapp-shows-how-phone-carriers-lost-out-on-33-billion

43. TELCOS
Dumb
pipe?

44. EDUCATION
http://www.wired.com/2015/05/altschool/

45. BANKING
„Banking
is
necessary,
banks
are
not.“
Bill
Gates
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/mfonobongnsehe/files/2014/09/bill-gates.jpg

46. BANKING
2020:
35%
of
revenues
lost
to
non-­‐banks
and
online
pure-­‐plays
http://cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/a9329ebf6090afb969b7a98195460892.jpg
http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/

47. BANKING
Banking
license

48. BANKING
ASacks
on
all
fronts
https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/disrupting-banking-fintech-startups/

49. MONEY
$500
bn.
transfer/payment
fees/year
http://blog.pmarca.com/2014/01/22/why-bitcoin-matters/
http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-07/andreessen-on-finance-we-can-reinvent-the-entire-thing-
http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/06/features/bitcoin-reid-hoffman

50. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
=
largest
„taxi“
provider;
no
vehicles
=
most
popular
media
owner;
no
content
created
=
most
valuable
retailer;
no
inventory
=
largest
accomoda(on
provider;
no
real
estate
=
largest
food
delivery;
no
restaurants,
no
fleet

51. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
User
experience
=
the
central
part:
own
the
customer
(and
the
profits)
by
solving
her
problem
in
the
most
seamless,
enjoyable
way.
„The
customer's
percep(on
is
your
reality.“
Kate
Zabriskie
„Design
is
not
just
what
it
looks
like
and
feels
like.
Design
is
how
it
works.“
Steve
Jobs
http://www.dandzombak.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Steve-Jobs-Secret-of-Life.jpg

52. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
Service
Aggrega(on
Need
Convenience
passive
responsive
proac(ve
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/NY-Taxis.jpg

53. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?

54. DIGITAL DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCdJ8btW0AAlNKz.png:large
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Building%20Lucky%20Country/deloitte-au-consulting-digital-disruption-whitepaper-0912.pdf

55. THANK YOU!
Alexander
Braun
alexander@crea(veconstruc(on.de
@almarrone