Presented by Janna Anderson

1. AUTONOMOUS INTELLIGENT ROBOTS AND
THE FUTURE OF JOBS
Professor Janna Anderson,
Pew Research and Elon University
andersj@elon.edu
Mr. Jeff Burnstein, President
Association for Advancing Automation
jburnstein@robotics.org
Dr. Robert Finkelstein, President
Robotic Technology Inc.
Collegiate Professor, University of Maryland
University College
BobF@RoboticTechnologyInc.com
RoboUniverse Conference, New York, NY
13 May 2015

2. Elon University/Pew Internet Expert Survey
 Question: Self-driving cars, intelligent digital agents that
can act for you and robots are advancing rapidly. Will they
displace more jobs than they have created by 2025?
The nearly 1,900 respondents
were divided nearly evenly – 52%
said no, 48% said yes. All wrote
long elaborations to explain their
viewpoints. Those who said “no”
generally either said 2025 is too
soon for the switchover or they
said technological innovation has
historically be accompanied by
the creation of new types of jobs
for displaced workers.

3. Elon University/Pew Internet Expert Survey
Hal Varian of Google: “The conventional work week will
decrease and there will be the same number of jobs.”
Jonathan Grudin of Microsoft: “More jobs seem likely
to be created… There’s no shortage of things to be
done.”
David Brin, author, futurist: “Galbraith’s prediction of
the 30-hour work week will come true.”
Predictions for major transformation of transportation,
health care, accounting. JP Rangaswami of Salesforce:
“The knowledge/information work sector impact will be
transformational.”

4. Elon University/Pew Internet Expert Survey
Among the “yes they will displace more jobs”
responses:

5. Elon University/Pew Internet Expert Survey
Among the “yes they will displace more jobs”
responses:

6. Elon University/Pew Internet Expert Survey
Among many themes in the responses:
 Technology will free us and allow us to define our
relationship with “work” in a more positive way.
 Automation has thus far mostly impacted blue-collar
work but white-collar work is soon to be upended
significantly, with possibly millions of jobs lost.
 Our education system is not adequately preparing
people for work of the future, and political and
economic systems are not prepared to handle this
future.
http://www.elon.edu/e-
web/imagining/surveys/2014_survey/2025_Internet_AI_Robotics.xhtml

7. What is the future of jobs?
• Capabilities of cooperative and humanoid
robots and software-based agents are
advancing rapidly. Autonomous vehicles and
knowledge engines such as Wolfram’s tools
and IBM’s Watson are making headlines and
raising the debate.

8. Why I Automate…
– Quality
– Productivity
– Safety
– Speed
– Competitiveness
– Jobs
– Reduce Costs
– More…
Jeff Burnstein:
Why Small Businesses are Automating
www.A3automate.org

9. -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Industrial Robot Shipments vs. Unemployment Level in the U.S.
Industrial Robot Shipments (USA) Unemployment (USA, Thousands)
As industrial robot shipments have increased, the unemployment level has typically
decreased in the United States.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics and RIA Historical Data
2001 Recession Great Recession

10. -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Industrial Robot Shipments vs. Manufacturing Employment in the
United States
Industrial Robot Shipments (USA) All Employees: Manufacturing (USA, Thousands)
There is no evidence suggesting that increases in industrial robot shipments directly
cause decreases in manufacturing employment.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics and RIA Historical Data
2001 Recession Great Recession

11. From Brookings Institute Study: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-avenue/posts/2015/04/29-robots-manufacturing-jobs-andes-muro
• Despite the installation of far more robots between 1993 and 2007,
Germany lost just 19 percent of its manufacturing jobs between
compared to a 33 percent drop in the U.S.
• Korea, France, and Italy also lost fewer manufacturing jobs than the
United States even as they introduced more industrial robots.
• On the other hand, United Kingdom and Australia invested less in
robots but saw faster declines in their manufacturing sectors.
• Evidence suggests there is essentially no relationship between the
change in manufacturing employment and robot use

12. From Brookings Institute Study: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-avenue/posts/2015/04/29-robots-manufacturing-jobs-andes-muro
• How many jobs would each economy have lost if the decline in
manufacturing employment was proportional to the increase in robots?
• The U.S. should have lost 1/3 more manufacturing jobs than it actually
did and Germany should have lost 50 percent more, while the United
Kingdom lost five times more than it should have.
• The lesson is that the net impacts of automation on employment in
manufacturing are not simple and cannot be said to have caused job
losses.

13. Robert Finkelstein:
DISRUPTIVE AND TRANSFORMATIVE
TECHNOLOGY IN HISTORY
 Disruptive technology: new technology
that is sufficiently different (and usually
considered superior) from the old
technology that it is replacing such that
it could change the companies and
industry producing the old technology
 Transformative technology: new
technology that is sufficiently different
(and usually considered superior) from
the old technology that it is replacing
such that it could transform culture and
society
 Autonomous intelligent robotic
technology: a disruptive and
transformative technology
 The robotic “next big thing”:
autonomous intelligent vehicles

14. QUESTIONS
 Will the advent of autonomous intelligent robots
cause the loss of more jobs than will be gained?
 If so, what are prospective solutions?

15. DISRUPTIVE AND TRANSFORMATIVE
TECHNOLOGY IN HISTORY
 Historically, technology that was
disruptive and transformative
caused some jobs to be lost while
many more new ones were gained
 Hypothesis: the technology of
intelligent machines is sufficiently
different in function and effect
from the historical experience that
the usual benign (overall) impact
on jobs may no longer be valid
 First autonomous robot impact
wave (2020 – 2030): autonomous
(driverless) vehicles will cause
the loss of jobs for millions of
drivers (taxis, trucks, buses,
delivery vans, etc.)

16. DRIVERLESS VEHICLES
 The advent of driverless vehicles is
inevitable, whether by 2020 as
many predict or a bit later
 Some partially autonomous
vehicles are being sold now by the
automotive industry
 The motivation (safety and
efficiency) is compelling, the
technology (hardware and
software) is improving rapidly, and
the policy issues are converging
toward solutions
 Prediction: by 2030 it will be illegal
to drive vehicles manually
wherever it is illegal to drive a
horse
 Now is the time to prepare for
potential job consequences

17. BEYOND DRIVERLESS VEHICLES
 Prediction: autonomous humanoid
and other legged robots (as being
developed under DARPA
sponsorship) will become
technologically feasible soon after
autonomous vehicles
 Hypothesis: these robots will be
able to replace humans in manifold
service and professional jobs, such
as janitor, fast-food worker, athlete,
soldier, accountant, nurse,
physician, lawyer, and professor
 Before the end of the 21st century,
intelligent machines will be equal
(and perhaps superior) to humans
in cognition
 How will people make a living?

18. PROSPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
 In the 1970s Dr. James Albus, of the
U.S. National Institute for Standards
and Technology, wrote a book;
“People’s Capitalism: The Economics
of the Robot Revolution”
 He proposed new government
agencies to manage a National Mutual
Fund (NMF) and national investment in
highly efficient robotics for all sectors
of the economy: manufacturing;
agriculture, fishing, and extraction;
and service
 Thus some of the increase in national
wealth could be distributed to all
residents as dividends, similar to what
some oil-producing regions (including
Alaska) have done
 The incremental wealth distribution
would be a sufficient income to allow
people to live reasonably – work would
be optional

19. PROSPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
 An alternative solution, especially if
there is near-term job loss from the
advent of driverless cars, trucks, and
buses:
 The government facilitates loans to
qualified erstwhile drivers so that they
can own the means of production (the
driverless vehicles)
 The government facilitates training for
erstwhile drivers so they can become
vehicle owners and managers instead
of vehicle drivers
 Not all former drivers will qualify, but
sufficient numbers as to reduce the
impact of otherwise massive job loss
 This solution could also work for farm
workers, miners, barbers, elder-care
workers, and others who lose jobs
due to future robots

20. We say hindsight is 20/20 but due to accelerating change…
and the complexity and potential for chaos becoming
more implicit in our need to simplify the complicated we
must aim for foresight to be 40/40, whether it can be or
not. We should anticipate challenges and opportunities,
risks and rewards or many could suffer needlessly. Why
not project the negatives of this future we are so sure will
continue to barrel along as well as the positives and plan
for all contingencies we may perceive?
May you all find a fine and rewarding collaborative future
as we extend upon our blending with and dependence
upon technology.
Foresight target should be 40/40!

21. Your questions, discussion?
Dr. Robert Finkelstein, President
Robotic Technology Inc.
Collegiate Professor, University of
Maryland University College
BobF@RoboticTechnologyInc.com
Mr. Jeff Burnstein, President
Association for Advancing Automation
jburnstein@robotics.org
Professor Janna Anderson,
Pew Research and Elon University
andersj@elon.edu