The document provides Sanjay Mehta's predictions for digital media in 2012. It begins with an overview and introduction, then lists 10 predictions: 1. E-commerce and online retail will continue growing rapidly in India, especially in tier 2 and 3 cities. 2. The business model for group buying and daily deals sites will struggle as discounts become unsustainable. 3. Media spending will see a significant shift towards digital formats, though boundaries between traditional and digital will blur. 4. Marketing will become more integrated across traditional, digital and social media platforms. The document then provides further explanation and reasoning for the first four predictions. It emphasizes continued growth in e-commerce, issues with the sustainability of group

1. Predic'ons
for
Digital:
2012
Also
known
as
‘S'cking-­‐my-­‐neck-­‐out’
syndrome,
in
month
of
December!
SANJAY
MEHTA

2. THESE
DECEMBER
DISEASES
SANJAY
MEHTA

3. These
December
Diseases
• Round-­‐up
of
the
year
gone
by
(Best
of,
Worst
of,
Ugliest
of,
Smartest
of,
etc.)
• Predic'ons
for
the
year
to
come
• LaSer
is
easier
–
no
one
has
seen
it,
and
will
take
12
months
to
prove
you
wrong;
by
that
'me,
your
predic'ons
would
be
forgoSen
• AND
if
by
chance,
you
got
lucky
and
got
many
right,
you
can
always
‘tom-­‐tom’
it
yourself!
• So
I
s'ck
my
neck
out
too..
!
SANJAY
MEHTA

4. CRYSTAL
BALL
GAZING
2012
SANJAY
MEHTA

5. My
Predic'ons
for
Digital:
2012
1. E-­‐commerce
/
Online
Retailing
will
con'nue
to
show
blazing
growth
in
India
2. Group
Buying
/
Daily
Deals
on
the
other
hand…the
model
will
crack!
3. Media
Spends
will
see
a
sharp
swing
to
what
is
considered
as
digital,
though
boundaries
will
blur
in
2012
4. Integra'on:
Tradi'onal+Digital+Social
etc.
5. Facebook
pages
will
have
to
fight
cluSer
SANJAY
MEHTA

6. My
Predic'ons
for
Digital:
2012
(contd)
6. Google+
will
be
one
more
promising
project
of
Google…that
didn’t
go
far!
7. Social
Media
will
see
a
few
embarrassments
(and
I
hope
it’s
not
our
clients!!)
8. Online
Reputa'on
Management
will
be
HOT
9. India’s
Old
Spice
equivalent
will
happen
–
beyond
Kolaveri
(and
I
hope
it’s
our
client!!)
10. We’ll
see
M&A
in
agency
space
SANJAY
MEHTA

7. 1.
E-­‐COMMERCE
/
ONLINE
RETAIL
WILL
CONTINUE
TO
ROCK
AWAY..
SANJAY
MEHTA

8. 1.
E-­‐commerce
/
Online
Retail
• Last
12
months
have
seen
serious
break-­‐out
in
volumes
• Internet
penetra'on,
broadband,
mobile
growth
have
all
been
factors
• Most
important
though:
a
new
digital
na've
genera'on
of
consumers
• Blazing
growth
will
con'nue,
largely
driven
by
Tier-­‐II,
Tier-­‐III
markets
SANJAY
MEHTA

9. 1.
E-­‐commerce
/
Online
Retail
(contd)
• Tier
II
/
Tier
III
–
same
aspira'ons
and
similar
means,
but
fewer
or
non-­‐existent
brand
stores
• Flipkart,
Infibeam
and
other
leaders
of
today
will
con'nue
to
grow
and
maintain
posi'on
• But
several
new,
niche
specialist
sites
will
emerge
and
challenge
category
leadership
• Amazon
will
acquire,
but
not
Flipkart
• Indian
retail
majors
will
not
acquire
yet
SANJAY
MEHTA

10. 2.
GROUP
BUYS
/
DAILY
DEALS:
THE
MODEL
WILL
CRACK
UP..
SANJAY
MEHTA

11. 2.
Group
Buying
/
Daily
Deals
–
the
business
model
will
crack!
• Taggle
was
not
able
to
tackle,
and
now
we
will
see
Snap
Deal’s
model
also
Snap!!
• 10%
off
is
not
a
big
deal,
and
75%
off
can’t
sustain
–
something’s
got
to
give!
• The
MRPs
of
Spas
would
have
got
permanently
rerated;
other
categories
can’t!
• Excess
inventory
–
physical
or
perishable
(hotel
rooms,
spa
capaci'es,
saloon
chairs,
airline
'ckets
etc.)
may
s'll
work
• Good
as
a
niche
play,
can’t
challenge
core
commerce
SANJAY
MEHTA

12. 3.
MEDIA
SPENDS
WILL
SHIFT
MORE
TOWARDS
DIGITAL
SANJAY
MEHTA

13. 3.
Media
Spends
will
see
BIG
ships
• Bunch
of
factors
will
influence
the
ship
• Economy
blues
will
prohibit
large
mainline
campaigns
• Good
'me
for
brand
managers
then,
to
walk-­‐
their-­‐talk
on
digital
becoming
more
crucial
• Boundaries
between
tradi'onal
and
digital
(and
all
other
types
in
between)
media
will
blur
• But
agencies
playing
in
digital
space
will
see
larger
billings,
any
which
way
SANJAY
MEHTA

14. 4.
INTEGRATED
MARKETING
SANJAY
MEHTA

15. 4.
Integra'on’s
the
word
• Your
TVC
has
a
call
to
ac'on
to
a
Facebook
page,
and
the
campaign
extends
there
• Your
successful
TV
campaign
takes
a
new
leaf,
in
terms
of
sequels
on
YouTube
• Flash
mobs
at
the
mall
largely
aimed
to
create
content
that
will
viral
on
social
media
• Bloggers
invited
to
your
press
conference
• Live
twee'ng
of
your
on-­‐ground
event
SANJAY
MEHTA

16. 4.
Integra'on’s
the
word
(contd.)
• Business
scandal
that
refuses
to
die
on
TwiSer
• Or
a
story
that
breaks
on
TwiSer,
and
then
finds
wings
as
it
gets
on
to
mainline
media
• Driving
traffic
to
your
YouTube
takeover
page,
via
banners
on
Rediff
or
Yahoo
• All
of
these
are
real,
and
already
there
today!
• Will
become
the
norm
in
2012
• Think
ONE-­‐line:
mainline-­‐new
media-­‐social-­‐
digital-­‐ATL-­‐BTL….it’s
all
about
the
brand
aper
all!
SANJAY
MEHTA

17. 5.
BRAND
PAGES
ON
FACEBOOK
WILL
HAVE
TO
FIGHT
CLUTTER
SANJAY
MEHTA

18. 5.
Facebook
pages
will
be
cluSered
• Everybody
and
their
uncle
will
have
one!
• And
new
ones
will
keep
coming
up
daily!
• The
fight
to
acquire
fans
will
con'nue;
those
who
can’t
(and
few
who
won’t)
fight
will
look
for
‘the
deeper
meaning’
• Crea'vity
will
be
at
a
premium
–
how
to
make
my
Facebook
page
no'ced
and
get
more
fans
• The
wiser
will
focus
on
the
‘right’
community
and
engagement,
and
real
business
goals!
SANJAY
MEHTA

19. 6.
GOOGLE+
WILL
BE
AN
ALSO-­‐RAN
SANJAY
MEHTA

20. 6.
Google+..aah..Google+
• Would
be
acknowledged
as
one
of
the
best
Google
projects
on
Social
Media..
• ..before
being
given
it’s
rightul
place
in
HISTORY
• It
may
morph
into
a
decent
search
engine
aid
or
a
cool
Web
mee'ng
(hangout)
place,
but
as
a
wannabe
social
network,
the
game
would
be
up
• The
geeks
will
con'nue
to
use
it
like
their
private
network,
and
swear
by
it
too
• But
Facebook
will
remain
streets
ahead
SANJAY
MEHTA

21. 7.
WHOOPS..I
AM
ON
SOCIAL
MEDIA:
EMBARRASSMENTS
WILL
HAPPEN!
SANJAY
MEHTA

22. 7.
Social
Media
will
see
few
boo-­‐boos
• There
is
an
itch
for
top
management
to
get
on
to
Social
Media,
especially
TwiSer
• “Anand
Mahindra’s
there,
I
should
too..”
• And
as
top
management
go,
they
listen
less
• 2012
will
see
a
few
of
them
making
mistakes!
• (Hope
it’s
not
one
of
our
clients!

)
• Causes
could
be:
not
realizing
consequences,
or
being
trigger
(twiSer)
happy,
etc.
• All
hell
will
break
lose,
then..
!
SANJAY
MEHTA

23. 8.
REPUTATION
WILL
HAVE
TO
BE
MANAGED:
ORM
WILL
BE
HOT
SANJAY
MEHTA

24. 8.
ORM
will
be
the
NORM..
!
• Online
Reputa'on
Management
has
not
been
taken
very
seriously
by
most
brands
yet
• As
nega've
men'ons,
brand
aSacks,
customer
revolts,
etc.
become
common,
brands
will
wake
up
• Some
will
directly
impact
market
share,
some
the
market
cap,
and
most
will
be
expensive
to
correct
• ORM
will
thus
become
the
norm
–
more
brands
will
want
to
detect
and
protect,
rather
than
fix!
• Budgets
will
be
treated
akin
to
insurance
premia
SANJAY
MEHTA

25. 9.
THE
FIRST
OF
INDIA’S
BIG
SOCIAL
MEDIA
BRAND
WINS
WILL
BE
SEEN
SANJAY
MEHTA

26. 9.
India’s
big
SM
winner
will
happen
• Tata
DoCoMo’s
fan
base
is
largely
incen've
based
• Kolaveri
Di
was
a
winner,
but..
• We
don’t
have
a
very
strong
SM
winner,
from
regular
product
brands
yet
• We
don’t
have
our
Old
Spices
or
Blendtechs
• 2012
will
see
the
big
SM
brand
winners
in
India
• (hope
it’s
one
of
our
clients

)
SANJAY
MEHTA

27. 10.
M&A
IN
AGENCY
SPACE
SANJAY
MEHTA

28. 10.
Consolida'on
in
the
space?!
• Digital
and
Social
Media
space
dominated
by
independent
agencies,
including
bou'que
ones
• Majors
and
larger
agencies
will
scout
space
• A
first
major
acquisi'on
will
be
seen
in
2012
• Consolida'on
may
happen
amongst
the
smaller
agencies
as
well
• This,
in
spite
of
the
slow
economy!
SANJAY
MEHTA

29. Ouch..the
neck
hurts!
From
s'cking
out
for
so
long..
• What’s
your
take?
Love
to
hear
your
opinions
as
well..
• Meanwhile,
wishing
all
of
you
a
Fabulous
New
Year!!
Sanjay
Mehta
Jt
CEO,
Social
Wavelength
TwiSer:
@sm63
SANJAY
MEHTA