This document provides a review of online media trends in 2011 and predictions for 2012. Key events of 2011 included the rise of the mobile web and smartphones surpassing PCs in sales. Real-time bidding for digital ads also grew substantially. Facebook expanded as an advertising platform. Predictions for 2012 include an intensifying competition between tech giants like Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon. Social, local and mobile features will continue growing in importance, especially for television. Concerns around online privacy are also expected to increase.

1. Online Media
A review of 2011 and predictions for 2012
(before the December 21st apocalypse)
Nigel Gwilliam
Consultant Head of Digital
IPA

2. What I’ll be talking about
—The current Search market
(according to a non-specialist)
—5 big things that happened this year
—5 predictions for 2012

3. Search Marketing Review
(from a non-search specialist)

4. The Big Picture: IPA Bellwether

5. Search & Internet Marketing
(much more positive)

6. You’re in a good place!
IPA Bellwether: 3Q2011 vs 2Q2011

7. “The Bellwether Report reveals a strengthening of marketing
budgets in Q3, particularly in the internet and search
channels, in a cautious economic environment as brands
focus on defending market share and in some instances
driving sales growth forward. Digital and search investment
continues to grow as brands take cautious shelter in channels
that provide measurable return on investment.
”
Chris Whitelaw
IPA Search Group Chairman,
President, I Spy

8. SEM attracting budget shifts from where? (US)

9. Trends & Technologies impacting SEM
(US Agencies)

10. Check out this presentation I saw in SXSW!
— Mobile search…
… is different
… is local & local is growing
exponentially at 50% per year
(in the US)
… is social
… needs mobile UX

11. Marketers rate their SEM knowledge…
Source: IAB National Search Marketing Barometer, 2010

12. 5 big things that happened
this year

13. NUMBER 1
— A new epoch: the mobile web

14. “
A smartphone today would have
been the most powerful computer
in the world in 1985
”
Horace Dediu, former Nokia Executive
In fact, today's phones have about the same raw processing power
as a laptop from 10 years ago. And every year they close the gap.
Source: The Guardian

15. Smartphones surpass
feature phones

16. Smartphone sales beat
PC sales in 2011

17. NUMBER 2
— The Stupid EU Cookie Law

18. … in 2 ½ minutes

19. IPA advice for agencies
— Tell clients there is no need to panic
— BUT don’t do nothing
— Audit the use of cookies
— Classify cookie usage
— Increase prominence of information
— And for OBA…

21. NUMBER 3
— The rise of Real Time Bidding

22. The most infamous chart of 2011

23. Spend to quadruple this year
“By 2015, more than one in four
display ad dollars will be spent
via real-time bidding”
International Data Corporation

24. NUMBER 4
— Therise of Facebook as an advertising
medium

25. Facebook steps up
Estimated Ad Revenue (£m)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010 2011 2012
“Facebook now accounts for the majority of net online display
growth in the UK.”
Ian Maude, Enders

26. NUMBER 5
—Google changes
— Mobile search prioritises mobile content
— Removes natural search analytics (for signed in
Google account holders)?

27. 5 predictions for 2012

28. NUMBER 1
—The Great
Tech War
of 2012

29. NUMBER 2
— Forget 3D TV, 2012 is all about
Social TV & Connected TV

30. Social TV: The Second Screen

31. Wifi – unleashes laptops
(and smartphones)
Source: Percentage HH, Touchpoints 3 (2010) vs Touchpoints 2 (2008)

32. Re-linearization of TV
“ linear TV, far from being dead,
is actually making a resurgence
”
Chloe Sladden, Twitter

33. Connected TV
— “The integration of the internet and Web 2.0
features into modern television sets and set-top
boxes, as well as the technological convergence
between computers and these television sets /
set-top boxes.”
Source: Wikipedia

34. Online video
— accelerating growth set to continue

35. NUMBER 3
—Local explosion

36. Local Explosion
— 95% of Smartphone users have searched for local
info
— 61% have called, 59% visited after a search
— 90% act within 24 hours
Source: Google

37. Location, location, location
The mobile phone acts as a cursor
that connects the digital and
physical worlds

38. NUMBER 4
—Privacy Push-Back

39. EU Data Privacy Directive
“Overly strict, static and bureaucratic data-protection rules will have
a detrimental impact on Europe’s economy”
said 11 industry associations, including the Business Software Alliance, which counts Microsoft
among its members, and IAB Europe, which has Google and Yahoo! Inc. on its roster.

40. NUMBER 5
—Tick, tick, BOOM

41. The Ad Environment
Time Bomb

42. A summary in buzzwords
— Google v Facebook v Apple v Amazon Tech War
— Real time
— So(cial) Lo(cal) Mo(bile)
— Social, Connected TV
— Privacy push-back
— Danger UXB