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Digital Dividend A technology disruption in Mobile broadband A unique opportunity for connecting India Manas Ganguly
Telecom is a large economic multiplier A 10% increase in tele-density leads to a 0.6% p.a. increase in GDP growth Potential growth dividend for India from telecom sector GDP ($ bn.) Extrapolation of current GDP growth trajectory Higher GDP growth owing to increased tele-density Present value difference of $250-300 bn However, this incremental value does not all accrue to the operators, but rather to other beneficiaries Furthermore, it occurs over time – the “cost” has to be borne upfront Thrust in Rural Telecom sector can further increase GDP by $520 bn. over  8 1 / 3  year period
Of Telecom Opportunity and Rural Upliftment
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What ails Rural Up-liftment?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Applications that can secure quality of life in agri - economies 19th June 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Spectrum Requirement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],India needs to consider new frequency bands (like 700 MHz) for the future growth of mobile/ mobile broadband services.
Spectrum bands for mobile broadband for mobile broadband Making Mobile Broadband a reality ,[object Object],[object Object]
Globally, for broadband - mobile is the answer 1.1 Billion Lines Only 1/6 world’s population 4 Billion Connections Mobile networks will connect the world Fixed Broadband Mobile
Mobile Broadband: Making a real impact in India ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],* Investment of $20 billion over 5 years Source: McKinsey, 2009; LECG, 2009. $ Mobile Broadband has a significant impact on the economy GDP
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Digital Dividend  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Digital Dividend ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Digital Dividend ,[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Present usage of 700 MHz in India  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
700 MHz band – Uses/users ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Status of 700 MHz Band ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Band  Spectrum  Number of TV Channels available in analogue mode  TV Channel Number  UHF Band IV  470-582 MHz  14  21 to 34  UHF Band V  582-806 MHz  806-960 MHz  28  ---  35 to 62  ----
Status of 700 Mhz Band ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why is the 698-862 MHz band critical? ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: SCF Associates Study Source: SCF Associates Study Statistic shows the variation in Capex and no of base stations in different frequency bands x1 x1.5 x3 x5 x7 x12 Number of base stations 2 5 7 10 20 15 x1 x1.5 x3 x5 x7 x12 UHF Band
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],450MHz   470MHz 698MHz 790MHz 3400MHz 2100MHz 862MHz 2500MHz 3600MHz 900MHz 1800MHz COVERAGE Low Cost of Deployment CAPACITY High Cost of Deployment MOBILE MOBILE MOBILE MOBILE
700 MHz band – Potential Uses/user ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Proposed Band Plan for India ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],698  806  8MHz 748  756 Downlink Uplink Description of 2x50MHz band plan
Proposed Band Plan for India ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Proposed Band Plan for India ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],806 MHz 698 MHz (2x50 MHz)
Spectrum defines the choice of technology * Not possible in present scenario because of non availability of spectrum inline with global harmonization.
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ICT readiness drives economic development 0 2.5 3.5 3.0 0 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 Increasing ICT readiness (Digital opportunity index)** Increasing economic competitiveness (Global competitive index)* * Composite index of indicators relating to institutions, infrastructure, macro-economy, health, education, market efficiency, technological readiness, business sophistication, and innovation ** Composite index of indicators relating to coverage/access, tariffs, equipment penetration and broadband adoption Source:  World Economic Forum; McKinsey Developed economies Emerging and  developing economies
The band 698-960 MHz in ITU 698 MHz 790 MHz 862 MHz IMT-2000 GSM/WCDMA Region 2  (Americas) Region 1  (EMEA) Region 3  (APAC) 894 MHz IMT-2000 cdma2000/WCDMA BROADCASTING 880 MHz 824 MHz 806 MHz 960 MHz 894 MHz IMT-2000 cdma2000/WCDMA 824 MHz IMT-2000 GSM/WCDMA 880 MHz 960 MHz 698 MHz 790 MHz 862 MHz MOBILE & IMT MOBILE & IMT MOBILE & IMT (9 countries) MOBILE & IMT Momentum
European Digital Dividend band  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],791 MHz 821    832   862 MHz
US considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],(2x18 MHz)  +  (2x10 + 2x10 MHz) 716 728 746 756 776 786 768 798 698 758 788
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US considerations
Regional harmonisation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
BTS deployment in different spectrum bands Lower the spectrum, more the coverage per BTS z 19th June 2009
700 MHz vs. 3500 MHz –  Half the range, 5 times more expensive  Operating  frequency (Mhz) Cost and range of wireless networks vs. frequency  Cell radius (km) Wireless  network costs ($k per km 2) Weighted  average  cost Urban Suburban Rural  range 0 5 10 15 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 0 10 20 30 Source: Deutsche Bank & BCG Analysis 700 Mhz 3500 Mhz Underlying spectral band is critical to performance and cost  19th June 2009
Advantages of 700 MHz Band ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
700 MHz band in India ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Advantages of Proposed band plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Benefits of UHF 700 MHz Band ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Access to harmonized spectrum in UHF is a key to deliver mobile broadband services specially to the masses
Benefits of Mobile Broadband Services ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Advantage: 700 MHz Higher Coverage + Lower costs
Advantage 700 MHz Higher Coverage + Lower costs
700 MHz band advantage  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regulatory Levers that influence economics for rural broadband deployment
TRAI’s recommendations  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
COAI Recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],Thus, there is a need to allocate 100 MHz of digital dividend band to mobile services
Mobile’s role in economic value ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Government Enabler Immediate benefits Long term benefits
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
References ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thanks Please add your comments to enrich the discussion Reach me:  [email_address] ,  Profile:  www.linkedin.com/in/manasganguly Blogs:www.ronnie05.wordpress.com www.newspaper-posts.blogspot.com Tweeting @ronnie051178

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Digital Dividend

  • 1. Digital Dividend A technology disruption in Mobile broadband A unique opportunity for connecting India Manas Ganguly
  • 2. Telecom is a large economic multiplier A 10% increase in tele-density leads to a 0.6% p.a. increase in GDP growth Potential growth dividend for India from telecom sector GDP ($ bn.) Extrapolation of current GDP growth trajectory Higher GDP growth owing to increased tele-density Present value difference of $250-300 bn However, this incremental value does not all accrue to the operators, but rather to other beneficiaries Furthermore, it occurs over time – the “cost” has to be borne upfront Thrust in Rural Telecom sector can further increase GDP by $520 bn. over 8 1 / 3 year period
  • 3. Of Telecom Opportunity and Rural Upliftment
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Globally, for broadband - mobile is the answer 1.1 Billion Lines Only 1/6 world’s population 4 Billion Connections Mobile networks will connect the world Fixed Broadband Mobile
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27. Spectrum defines the choice of technology * Not possible in present scenario because of non availability of spectrum inline with global harmonization.
  • 28.
  • 29. ICT readiness drives economic development 0 2.5 3.5 3.0 0 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 Increasing ICT readiness (Digital opportunity index)** Increasing economic competitiveness (Global competitive index)* * Composite index of indicators relating to institutions, infrastructure, macro-economy, health, education, market efficiency, technological readiness, business sophistication, and innovation ** Composite index of indicators relating to coverage/access, tariffs, equipment penetration and broadband adoption Source: World Economic Forum; McKinsey Developed economies Emerging and developing economies
  • 30. The band 698-960 MHz in ITU 698 MHz 790 MHz 862 MHz IMT-2000 GSM/WCDMA Region 2 (Americas) Region 1 (EMEA) Region 3 (APAC) 894 MHz IMT-2000 cdma2000/WCDMA BROADCASTING 880 MHz 824 MHz 806 MHz 960 MHz 894 MHz IMT-2000 cdma2000/WCDMA 824 MHz IMT-2000 GSM/WCDMA 880 MHz 960 MHz 698 MHz 790 MHz 862 MHz MOBILE & IMT MOBILE & IMT MOBILE & IMT (9 countries) MOBILE & IMT Momentum
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36. BTS deployment in different spectrum bands Lower the spectrum, more the coverage per BTS z 19th June 2009
  • 37. 700 MHz vs. 3500 MHz – Half the range, 5 times more expensive Operating frequency (Mhz) Cost and range of wireless networks vs. frequency Cell radius (km) Wireless network costs ($k per km 2) Weighted average cost Urban Suburban Rural range 0 5 10 15 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 0 10 20 30 Source: Deutsche Bank & BCG Analysis 700 Mhz 3500 Mhz Underlying spectral band is critical to performance and cost 19th June 2009
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. Advantage: 700 MHz Higher Coverage + Lower costs
  • 44. Advantage 700 MHz Higher Coverage + Lower costs
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48. Regulatory Levers that influence economics for rural broadband deployment
  • 49.
  • 50.
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  • 53.
  • 54. Thanks Please add your comments to enrich the discussion Reach me: [email_address] , Profile: www.linkedin.com/in/manasganguly Blogs:www.ronnie05.wordpress.com www.newspaper-posts.blogspot.com Tweeting @ronnie051178

Editor's Notes

  1. Digital Dividend to Digital Opportunity 11/08/09 Ericsson AB 2009