This chapter discusses the important role of buildings in addressing climate change through reducing energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions. It notes that buildings account for a large portion of global energy demand and CO2 emissions. In developed countries, improving efficiency in existing buildings is key, while in developing countries focusing on high-efficiency new construction is important as those nations continue to develop. The chapter outlines the massive investments that will be needed in building efficiency globally to achieve climate goals but also notes that these investments will be largely offset by future energy cost savings. Further technological advances will be required to achieve deeper emissions cuts over time.
Climate change is any change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity and that alters the composition of the global atmosphere (United Nations 1992). Climate change is caused by the increment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels and land use (United Nations 1992). This causes increased radiation of infrared rays back to the earth hence temperature increases through the greenhouse gas effect.
Climate change worldwide is affecting biophysical and social systems (Maitima. J. et al 2009). The spatial extent and intensity of these effects vary geographically from one place to another depending on the location in the global atmospheric systems, regional settings, land cover, land use patterns, topography and weather patterns (Maitima. J. et al 2009). These effects have become a major concern for most countries of the world due to their longterm implications and adverse effects on development activities with developing and underdeveloped nations being the most affected (ECOLAO 2012) Indigenous people are most vulnerable to impacts of climate change due to their high reliance on climate sensitive natural resources, inhabitation of fragile ecosystems and social, economic plus political marginalization (ECOLAO 2012).
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty (also known as a multilateral environmental agreement) that was opened for signature at the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and came into force in 1994.
The ultimate objective of the Convention is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system." It states that "such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.“ 194 countries signed the UNFCCC showing near universal agreement that there is a problem and that action is required against climate change.
WWF: Policy Expectations for COP 19 WarsawWWF ITALIA
Oggi possiamo salvare il clima e conquistare un futuro di benessere per noi e i nostri figli. Bruciare i combustibili fossili per procurarsi energia e calore ha portato la concentrazione di CO2 in atmosfera ai livelli di 3 milioni di anni fa. Dobbiamo riconquistare l'energia, puntare sulle fonti rinnovabili e l’efficienza energetica. Occorre investire le risorse pubbliche e private nel nostro futuro. E invece i nostri soldi continuano a finanziare il passato fossile. E' ora di cambiare noi, non il clima." Mariagrazia Midulla, Responsabile Clima ed Energia
http://www.wwf.it/riprenditilenergia.cfm
Seeds of actions on Climate Change, Is it now India’s moment? TERRE Policy Centre
Secretary of State John Kerry will be in India this week and India should lend its support on priority for HFC phase down under the Montreal Protocol. Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Washington DC later this year can seal the deal to demonstrate that three largest economies of the world working shoulder to shoulder to take action on climate change would be good omen and a strong signal.
Climate change is any change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity and that alters the composition of the global atmosphere (United Nations 1992). Climate change is caused by the increment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels and land use (United Nations 1992). This causes increased radiation of infrared rays back to the earth hence temperature increases through the greenhouse gas effect.
Climate change worldwide is affecting biophysical and social systems (Maitima. J. et al 2009). The spatial extent and intensity of these effects vary geographically from one place to another depending on the location in the global atmospheric systems, regional settings, land cover, land use patterns, topography and weather patterns (Maitima. J. et al 2009). These effects have become a major concern for most countries of the world due to their longterm implications and adverse effects on development activities with developing and underdeveloped nations being the most affected (ECOLAO 2012) Indigenous people are most vulnerable to impacts of climate change due to their high reliance on climate sensitive natural resources, inhabitation of fragile ecosystems and social, economic plus political marginalization (ECOLAO 2012).
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty (also known as a multilateral environmental agreement) that was opened for signature at the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and came into force in 1994.
The ultimate objective of the Convention is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system." It states that "such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.“ 194 countries signed the UNFCCC showing near universal agreement that there is a problem and that action is required against climate change.
WWF: Policy Expectations for COP 19 WarsawWWF ITALIA
Oggi possiamo salvare il clima e conquistare un futuro di benessere per noi e i nostri figli. Bruciare i combustibili fossili per procurarsi energia e calore ha portato la concentrazione di CO2 in atmosfera ai livelli di 3 milioni di anni fa. Dobbiamo riconquistare l'energia, puntare sulle fonti rinnovabili e l’efficienza energetica. Occorre investire le risorse pubbliche e private nel nostro futuro. E invece i nostri soldi continuano a finanziare il passato fossile. E' ora di cambiare noi, non il clima." Mariagrazia Midulla, Responsabile Clima ed Energia
http://www.wwf.it/riprenditilenergia.cfm
Seeds of actions on Climate Change, Is it now India’s moment? TERRE Policy Centre
Secretary of State John Kerry will be in India this week and India should lend its support on priority for HFC phase down under the Montreal Protocol. Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Washington DC later this year can seal the deal to demonstrate that three largest economies of the world working shoulder to shoulder to take action on climate change would be good omen and a strong signal.
Australian coal reserves and resources alone could exceed global coal carbon budgets and attempts to avoid dangerous climate change. Investors in our coal resources are taking high risk gambles on global climate inaction, the deployment of carbon capture and storage technology or significantly increasing Australia’s share of global coal markets. Governments, investors and even many coal companies say they take climate change seriously, but this report shows that if they did, their Australian investments could be a costly speculative bubble.
Climate Change: Implications for CitiesECFoundation
The Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the
most comprehensive and relevant analysis of our changing climate. It provides the scientific fact base that will be used around the world to formulate
climate policies in the coming years.This document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findings of AR5 for specific economic and business sectors. It was born of the belief that the cities sector could make more use of AR5, which is long and highly technical, if it were distilled into an accurate, accessible, timely, relevant and readable summary. Although the information presented here is a ‘translation’ of the key content relevant to this sector from AR5, this summary report adheres to the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material.
Grateful thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science and business communities for their time, effort and invaluable feedback on this document. The basis for information presented in this overview report can be found in the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientific background reports at: www.ipcc.ch
Carbon, the way we view it, measure it, control it and price it has come to dominate debates of all kinds. So, what's it all about?
This is the starting point of a 'Carbon 101' guide released by The Climate Institute, alongside a podcast narration by Andrew Demetriou, CEO of the Australian Football League and Dr Graeme Pearman, former head of CSIRO Atmospheric Research. This presentation summarises the book and podcast. Both are available on The Climate Institute's website: www.climateinstitute.org.au/carbon-101.html
Positive Energy Buildings - Professional Development Course for EngineersMarianneSalama
This professional development course on energy efficient buildings discusses their role in the fight against global warming, their certifications and their financial justification while making reference to several case studies.
Take this course at:
https://www.ipolytek.com
The paris global climate agreement (cop 21) and its non complianceFernando Alcoforado
The Paris Accord does not address fundamental issues, and the voluntary targets indicated by each nation are not sufficient to ensure that global warming will be well below 2 degrees Celsius and 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. In addition, the document is failing to present proposals that contribute to building a model of sustainable development on our planet in place of the current unsustainable model of capitalist development. Another issue not addressed at COP 21 concerns wars, which is also largely responsible for the worsening environment of the planet, which is proliferating around the world. The Paris Accord is also silent on the construction of a system of governance on the planet capable of ensuring the reorganization of the world economy that is leading the world to depression, the environment of the planet threatened by catastrophic climate change and international relations that worsen every day fueling the proliferation of wars.
Australian coal reserves and resources alone could exceed global coal carbon budgets and attempts to avoid dangerous climate change. Investors in our coal resources are taking high risk gambles on global climate inaction, the deployment of carbon capture and storage technology or significantly increasing Australia’s share of global coal markets. Governments, investors and even many coal companies say they take climate change seriously, but this report shows that if they did, their Australian investments could be a costly speculative bubble.
Climate Change: Implications for CitiesECFoundation
The Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the
most comprehensive and relevant analysis of our changing climate. It provides the scientific fact base that will be used around the world to formulate
climate policies in the coming years.This document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findings of AR5 for specific economic and business sectors. It was born of the belief that the cities sector could make more use of AR5, which is long and highly technical, if it were distilled into an accurate, accessible, timely, relevant and readable summary. Although the information presented here is a ‘translation’ of the key content relevant to this sector from AR5, this summary report adheres to the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material.
Grateful thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science and business communities for their time, effort and invaluable feedback on this document. The basis for information presented in this overview report can be found in the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientific background reports at: www.ipcc.ch
Carbon, the way we view it, measure it, control it and price it has come to dominate debates of all kinds. So, what's it all about?
This is the starting point of a 'Carbon 101' guide released by The Climate Institute, alongside a podcast narration by Andrew Demetriou, CEO of the Australian Football League and Dr Graeme Pearman, former head of CSIRO Atmospheric Research. This presentation summarises the book and podcast. Both are available on The Climate Institute's website: www.climateinstitute.org.au/carbon-101.html
Positive Energy Buildings - Professional Development Course for EngineersMarianneSalama
This professional development course on energy efficient buildings discusses their role in the fight against global warming, their certifications and their financial justification while making reference to several case studies.
Take this course at:
https://www.ipolytek.com
The paris global climate agreement (cop 21) and its non complianceFernando Alcoforado
The Paris Accord does not address fundamental issues, and the voluntary targets indicated by each nation are not sufficient to ensure that global warming will be well below 2 degrees Celsius and 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. In addition, the document is failing to present proposals that contribute to building a model of sustainable development on our planet in place of the current unsustainable model of capitalist development. Another issue not addressed at COP 21 concerns wars, which is also largely responsible for the worsening environment of the planet, which is proliferating around the world. The Paris Accord is also silent on the construction of a system of governance on the planet capable of ensuring the reorganization of the world economy that is leading the world to depression, the environment of the planet threatened by catastrophic climate change and international relations that worsen every day fueling the proliferation of wars.
Os Quatro Evangelhos - Volume 3, por Jean-Baptiste Roustaing.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Revelação dos Apóstolos sobre o Evangelho de Jesus Cristo.
No Primeiro, Segundo e Terceiro Volume, trata-se das Revelações dos Evangelistas (Marcos, Mateus e Lucas).
No Quarto Volume o Evangelista João Revela a Boa Nova.
Climate Change mitigation: practical measures to limit global warming IPCC re...GreenFacts
The IPCC uses a very specific language when it comes to expressing the degree of uncertainty or agreement for each statement in the fifth assessment report. For an overview of the specific meaning of each qualifier, you can read the relevant section in our summary of the Working Group I report.
Low Carbon China - Innovation Beyond Efficiencypolicysolutions
Radical innovation is essential to achieve green growth. This paper presents three case studies of business model innovation: fertilizer, lighting services and end-of-life treatment of tires. It makes the case that a culture of innovation is the basis for a low-carbon economy, which demands that we individually and collectively:
• Aspire to transformational, not incremental change;
• Adopt new behaviors and think differently.
English translation of Mandarin original (in press with the Chinese journal Plant Engineering Consultants)
IOSR Journal of Environmental Science, Toxicology and Food Technology (IOSR-JESTFT) multidisciplinary peer-reviewed Journal with reputable academics and experts as board member. IOSR-JESTFT is designed for the prompt publication of peer-reviewed articles in all areas of subject. The journal articles will be accessed freely online.
This presentation explores how climate change alters the pursuit of economic development: the transformation of poor economies and their people into prosperous ones.
This is hardly the first attempt to reconcile the climate agenda with that of economic development. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals are significant for defining a dual agenda where development targets for people and planet sit alongside each other in a unifying framework.1 Much commentary focuses on the compatibility of the two agendas. A radical and specious view pits progress on climate change and economic development as strict substitutes and calls for no less than the unravelling of economic development to save the planet.2 Cooler heads point instead to their complementarity: the critical role of economic development in supporting adaptation and the recognition that investments in the green transition will propel economies rather than sacrifice living standards.3
In contrast, this essay takes as its starting point that the goals and salience of economic development are immutable. The question posed here is how the quest for economic development changes in a world gripped by a changing climate. The essay argues that climate change will force three major changes: a reappraisal of the causes of and prospects for development, the rebirth of the economics of transition, and a reformulation of the problem development is trying to solve. In a final section, it asks what these changes could mean for international security and for the community of national and global actors who set policy and strategy in this field.
Etude PwC Low Carbon Economy Index (oct. 2015)PwC France
L'année 2014 a marqué un tournant en matière de réduction des émissions de carbone dans les économies du G20. C’est ce que révèle le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC dans la 7ème édition de son étude annuelle « Low carbon Economy index », qui modélise l'intensité carbone des grandes économies – à savoir les émissions des gaz à effet de serre liées à la consommation d'énergie par million de dollars de PIB. En effet, l'intensité carbone a chuté de 2,7% en 2014, soit sa plus forte baisse depuis 2000.
La France fait office d’exemple : elle a réduit son intensité carbone de plus de 9% en 2014, ce qui représente la 2ème plus forte réduction des pays du G20, juste derrière le Royaume-Uni (- 10,9%).
Carlo carraro - Cities and the 1.5° Mitigation ChallengeEIT Climate-KIC
Carlo Carraro, President Emeritus of Universita' Ca' Foscari Venezia and Vice Chair, IPCC, presentation for the closing plenary at the Climate Innovation Summit, Milan, 2017.
2013 – 2014 Strategy and Sustainability Highlights ReportSchneider Electric
Since sustainable development is an integral part of Schneider Electric’s strategy, our Group is publishing a combined Business and Sustainable Development document (Key figures, interviews with stakeholders, actions in favor of new behaviors, …).
Secure Supply USA FIlls the GREEN H2 Energy Storage and Mw Class Energy Generation application which provide's a unique place within the Hydrogen Council's project's.
www.securesupplyusa.com
Sustainable Computing and Telecom Can Contribute to Limiting Global Climatic ...Larry Smarr
10.07.28
Invited Seminar
AT&T Shannon Labs
Title: Sustainable Computing and Telecom Can Contribute to Limiting Global Climatic Disruption
Florham Park, NJ
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I have heard many times that architecture is not important for the front-end. Also, many times I have seen how developers implement features on the front-end just following the standard rules for a framework and think that this is enough to successfully launch the project, and then the project fails. How to prevent this and what approach to choose? I have launched dozens of complex projects and during the talk we will analyze which approaches have worked for me and which have not.
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 previewPrayukth K V
The IoT and OT threat landscape report has been prepared by the Threat Research Team at Sectrio using data from Sectrio, cyber threat intelligence farming facilities spread across over 85 cities around the world. In addition, Sectrio also runs AI-based advanced threat and payload engagement facilities that serve as sinks to attract and engage sophisticated threat actors, and newer malware including new variants and latent threats that are at an earlier stage of development.
The latest edition of the OT/ICS and IoT security Threat Landscape Report 2024 also covers:
State of global ICS asset and network exposure
Sectoral targets and attacks as well as the cost of ransom
Global APT activity, AI usage, actor and tactic profiles, and implications
Rise in volumes of AI-powered cyberattacks
Major cyber events in 2024
Malware and malicious payload trends
Cyberattack types and targets
Vulnerability exploit attempts on CVEs
Attacks on counties – USA
Expansion of bot farms – how, where, and why
In-depth analysis of the cyber threat landscape across North America, South America, Europe, APAC, and the Middle East
Why are attacks on smart factories rising?
Cyber risk predictions
Axis of attacks – Europe
Systemic attacks in the Middle East
Download the full report from here:
https://sectrio.com/resources/ot-threat-landscape-reports/sectrio-releases-ot-ics-and-iot-security-threat-landscape-report-2024/
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
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https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
Let's dive deeper into the world of ODC! Ricardo Alves (OutSystems) will join us to tell all about the new Data Fabric. After that, Sezen de Bruijn (OutSystems) will get into the details on how to best design a sturdy architecture within ODC.
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Let me take this questions and provide you a short journey through existing deployment models and use cases for AI software. On practical examples, we discuss what cloud/on-premise strategy we may need for applying it to our own infrastructure to get it to work from an enterprise perspective. I want to give an overview about infrastructure requirements and technologies, what could be beneficial or limiting your AI use cases in an enterprise environment. An interactive Demo will give you some insides, what approaches I got already working for real.
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)Ralf Eggert
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This talk is aimed at encouraging a more independent approach to using PHP frameworks, moving towards a more flexible and future-proof approach to PHP development.
Builder.ai Founder Sachin Dev Duggal's Strategic Approach to Create an Innova...Ramesh Iyer
In today's fast-changing business world, Companies that adapt and embrace new ideas often need help to keep up with the competition. However, fostering a culture of innovation takes much work. It takes vision, leadership and willingness to take risks in the right proportion. Sachin Dev Duggal, co-founder of Builder.ai, has perfected the art of this balance, creating a company culture where creativity and growth are nurtured at each stage.
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My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
Software Delivery At the Speed of AI: Inflectra Invests In AI-Powered QualityInflectra
In this insightful webinar, Inflectra explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming software development and testing. Discover how AI-powered tools are revolutionizing every stage of the software development lifecycle (SDLC), from design and prototyping to testing, deployment, and monitoring.
Learn about:
• The Future of Testing: How AI is shifting testing towards verification, analysis, and higher-level skills, while reducing repetitive tasks.
• Test Automation: How AI-powered test case generation, optimization, and self-healing tests are making testing more efficient and effective.
• Visual Testing: Explore the emerging capabilities of AI in visual testing and how it's set to revolutionize UI verification.
• Inflectra's AI Solutions: See demonstrations of Inflectra's cutting-edge AI tools like the ChatGPT plugin and Azure Open AI platform, designed to streamline your testing process.
Whether you're a developer, tester, or QA professional, this webinar will give you valuable insights into how AI is shaping the future of software delivery.
Software Delivery At the Speed of AI: Inflectra Invests In AI-Powered Quality
Design and management of sustainable built environments
1. Chapter 2
Buildings and Climate Change
Neil Hirst
Abstract This chapter provides the global context for the need to reduce energy
and GHG emissions associated with buildings. It starts by highlighting the target of
containing the average increase in global temperatures to 2 °. Furthermore, it
demonstrates the important role that buildings (their services and appliances) and
building energy policy play in this area. Substantial investment is required to
implement such policies however much of this will earn a good return. The chapter
goes on to examine differences between the developed world (where improving the
efficiency of existing buildings is the main challenge) and the developing world
(where new buildings are more important). The cost of intervention is later
explored. Low cost options such as basic home insulation are the first priority.
However, meeting the 2° target will undoubtedly eventually require the adoption
of higher cost options, such as installing heat pumps. Finally, this chapter
underlines the need for further research and development, including pilot schemes
to pioneer more advanced technologies and systems that are needed to realize the
deepest carbon emissions cuts. Learning outcome: On successful completion of
this chapter, readers will be able to: (1)demonstrate a basic understanding of the
role that buildings play in tackling carbon reduction targets; (2) have knowledge of
the principle mechanisms in reducing energy in buildings; (3) appreciate response
differences in reducing carbon emissions in buildings between the developed and
developing world; (4) reflect on the complexities, challenges, and need for further
work in this area in order to better understand the future role of buildings.
Á
Keywords Building efficiency Carbon reduction cost Á Climate change Á Low
Á
carbon policy Low carbon development
N. Hirst (&)
The Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London,
Exhibition Road, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
e-mail: n.hirst@imperial.ac.uk
R. Yao (ed.), Design and Management of Sustainable Built Environments, 23
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4471-4781-7_2, Ó Springer-Verlag London 2013
2. 24 N. Hirst
2.1 Introduction
Buildings provide the physical framework of our lives and of almost all our energy
use. Even our needs for transport are framed by the layout of the villages, towns,
and cities in which we live. Unfortunately, the living standards that we enjoy in the
developed world are currently underpinned by a stock of buildings that is oriented
toward high energy consumption; developed countries however only represent
about one sixth of the world’s population. The rapid economic progress and
enhancement of living standards that is taking place in countries such as India and
China is also, in part, a transformation of the built environment. If we fail to curb
the energy intensity of our own buildings in the developed world, and if the
developing world follows in our footsteps, the consequences for energy demand
and for CO2 emissions will be disastrous. This means that understanding the
sustainability of buildings, the subject of this book, is critical for the future of our
planet.
2.2 The Climate Change Crisis
Global temperatures are already rising due, in large measure, to energy related
CO2 emissions. The Copenhagen Accord, which was ratified by world leaders at
the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009, established a target of containing the
average increase in global temperatures to 2 °C. That target is, almost certainly,
already beyond reach. It would require global emissions to peak before 2020
whereas, even taking account of the Copenhagen national targets, they are not now
likely to peak before 2035. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA),
either the 2020 targets would have to be revisited or the speed of the transfor-
mation that would be required after 2020 would need to be extraordinarily rapid
(IEA 2010c).
The world may therefore be on course for an increase in average temperatures
in excess of 3.5 °C (IEA 2010c). This assumes that governments will actually meet
their own national targets, also announced at the 2009 climate summit, for curbing
the growth of CO2 emissions. If governments do not adopt the necessary policies,
we may be heading for a temperature increase in excess of 6°. This scenario
conjures up an alarming picture. Even a rise of 3.5 ° could well have severe effects
on water supply and crop productivity and lead to coastal flooding, the extinction
of species, and the spread of disease. There is considerable uncertainty about the
full extent of these effects, but we do know that they are likely to be concentrated
in some of the poorest parts of the world, for instance in Asia and Africa. The
consequences of a 6° rise are unthinkable (Green Alliance 2011).
This grim environmental outlook is the result of the global spread of the
industrial revolution which, in other respects, has been, and should continue to be,
a great blessing for mankind. For the first time in history there is the prospect of
decent living standards for the majority and not just for the minority. China alone,
3. 2 Buildings and Climate Change 25
by sustaining a breathtaking level of economic growth in recent decades has
achieved: ‘the most rapid decline in absolute poverty ever witnessed’ (UNDP
2010). Nevertheless, China still has a huge population living in poverty.
On average, people in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) countries consume more than twice as much energy per
capita as the global average and, for instance, more than five times as much as the
average person in Asia. It is inevitable that, without a radical change in technol-
ogy, the advance of living standards in the developing world toward those in the
OECD will imply a huge increase in energy supply and fossil fuel consumption, a
fact that is all too evident in current trends.
Most of the projected growth in energy demand in the coming decades is
attributable to developing countries, including China, India, Brazil, and South
Africa (IEA 2010c). These countries are aware of the threat that climate change
poses and of the need for mitigation. Furthermore, they are all signatories of the
Copenhagen Accord (2009). This Accord contains the 2 ° target but it also rec-
ognizes, specifically, that: ‘social and economic development and poverty eradi-
cation are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries’. The Accord
also contains a commitment by the developed countries to mobilize $100 billion
per annum by 2020 to help developing countries to address their mitigation needs.
In spite of the dominant role of developing countries in future emissions
growth, it is the relatively rich OECD countries that will need to act first. This is
because it was the OECD countries which initially created the problem (being
responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere today), because
the level of emissions per head in the OECD is so much higher than in the
developing world, and because, at present, it is the OECD countries that have the
resources necessary to tackle the problem.
Developing countries are willing to follow the ‘rich’ countries in pursuing
carbon reduction policies, but only if they are certain that this will not stand in the
way of poverty alleviation and raising living standards. From this point of view,
the adoption of low cost improvements in the efficiency of buildings represents a
particularly attractive option because it can free up energy supplies, which are
often tightly stretched, to meet other development needs.
With current policies, global energy related CO2 emissions (which make up about
70 % of all greenhouse gas emissions) are set to double from about 28 billion tons per
annum today to 57 billion tons per annum in 2050 (IEA 2010a). By contrast, a
strategy for containing global warming to around 2–3 °C requires a halving of
today’s emissions to 14 billion tons in 2050. The reduction needed in projected 2050
emissions is greater than total emissions today. Of course, developed countries will
have to make a much greater proportional contribution. For instance, the statutory
target set by the UK is for an 80 % reduction in emissions by 2050.
While renewables, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) all have
to make major contributions, the greatest potential CO2 reductions will need to come
from greater efficiency in the way we use fuel and electricity. This is estimated by the
IEA to be nearly 40 % of the total (IEA 2010a). Buildings, together with the
equipment and appliances they contain, have a crucial role in this.
4. 26 N. Hirst
2.3 The Building Sector
Achieving the necessary level of carbon reduction within the buildings sector is a
monumental global challenge. The first stage involves effective regulation and
enforcement to ensure that all currently available low cost carbon saving options
are achieved. Particularly for developing countries, this means stronger regulation
and the development of effective national and regional enforcement agencies.
Subsequent stages require focusing onto the application of more advanced, and
sometimes costly, measures and technologies required to reduce emissions to
significantly lower levels.
The IEA’s (Blue Map) low carbon case suggests that $7.9 trillion of additional
investment is needed in buildings within the residential sector between now and
2050 and $4.4 trillion within the service sector. These are huge sums, but they
equate to less than 1 % of global GDP. Savings of 5.8 billion tons of CO2
emissions are intended to be created by these investment measures. Together with
a saving of 6.8 billion tons of CO2 from the decarbonization of electricity used in
the sector, this achieves an 83 % reduction in buildings related emissions in 2050
(IEA 2010a).
The majority of this immense expenditure on buildings efficiency will even-
tually earn a good return in fuel savings. The total estimated value of the fuel
savings to 2050 is $51 trillion. In time, the value of efficiency gains will exceed
initial capital investments, even at a commercial discount rate of 10 % (IEA
2010a).
These figures not only illustrate the scale of the task, but also the vast range of
opportunities for business and employment that will arise from its achievement.
They also highlight the fact that the buildings sector offers some of the most cost-
effective measures available for addressing climate change.
In spite of the great opportunities it presents, the buildings sector often appears
as a poor relation in the climate change debate and governments have found it
extraordinarily difficult, in practice, to reap the carbon savings on offer: ‘between
the idea and the reality falls the shadow’. The climate mitigation debate tends to be
dominated by the supply side, in which nuclear power and renewables contend for
dominance with carbon capture and storage. The importance of buildings is often
not adequately reflected in pie and wedge charts in which savings in the buildings
sector appear as unspecified efficiency gains, or in the case of heating electrifi-
cation, are attributed to low carbon generation.
It is true that if we had at our disposal, unlimited supplies of low cost carbon
free electricity, the decarbonization of buildings would not be a problem. In
reality, however, none of the options for low carbon electricity is likely to be cheap
or easy to deliver on the scale required. This means that for the foreseeable future
we will continue to rely on policies for reducing energy in buildings, as well as
policies for low carbon energy supply.
5. 2 Buildings and Climate Change 27
2.4 The Developing World
The need to supply decent homes for large numbers of poor people is one of the
primary drivers of economic development in major developing countries such as
China or India. Indeed, largely for this reason, almost half of the world’s con-
struction is currently taking place in China. This is where the megacities of the
future are now being created. China is now producing more than half of the
world’s cement, and as a result, China’s cement industry alone is emitting almost
twice as much CO2 as the entire UK economy (IEA 2010b). Construction is
nearing its peak in Eastern China, and will probably peak in Central and Western
China within the next 10–20 years. Furthermore, Chinese buildings standards are
generally lower than in the West. Reputedly, there is inadequate buildings
inspection and anecdotal evidence suggests that a proportion of new buildings fall
far short of planning specification, insulation thickness being a typical example.
These buildings exemplify the concept of ‘lock in’, where high levels of CO2
emissions are inherently produced for many years until major refurbishment.
Alternatively, those of the poorest quality may need to be replaced, bearing in
mind that average building life in China is only about 30 years. Either outcome
will place a heavy burden on the environment.
Berkeley Laboratory in the USA has famously estimated that by 2020, tough
new standards for appliances in China will be delivering efficiency improvements
equivalent to more than five times the output of the Three Gorges Dam, the
world’s largest hydro-electric plant (Fridley and Zheng 2010). There is a strong
case that Governments concerned with reducing the global level of carbon emis-
sions should concentrate on supporting the efforts of cities and provinces in
China’s Central and Western regions to enhance building quality, especially by
training and deploying a strong force of buildings inspectors.
2.5 The Developed World
While new buildings present the greatest opportunities for carbon savings in the
developing world, only a small percentage of the housing stock is replaced each
year in the developed world, 1 % in the UK (DCLG 2011), and therefore it is the
upgrading, or retrofitting, of existing buildings that is most important.
Basic measures to provide adequate insulation, to install quality doors and
windows, exclude drafts, and install best practice systems as standard (such as
condensing boilers), will radically improve the efficiency of most homes in the
UK. This also holds true for achieving energy efficiency in other temperate parts of
the world. These are mostly low cost measures that incorporate well-established
technologies with acceptable or good payback periods.
The irony associated with high performance buildings (or the results of building
retrofitting) is the rebound effect or take-back factor. This is characterized by
6. 28 N. Hirst
improved levels of comfort, often in the form of higher internal temperatures,
taken at the expense of energy savings. Historically in the UK, when homeowners
switched from open coal fires to gas central heating, many took extra comfort in
the form of day and night heating of the whole house (Hawkes et al. 2011).
2.6 Low Cost Options
The IEA has listed the basic measures which governments need to take in order to
promote greater energy efficiency in buildings. They include: the strengthening
and enforcement of codes for new buildings; better information on the efficiency of
existing buildings; mandatory building standards whenever a building is sold,
rented, or constructed; and high efficiency windows and other glazed areas. The
IEA’s latest estimate is that overall, their member countries achieved 43 % full or
substantial implementation, but that 57 % of those measures are at best, work in
progress (IEA 2011).
However, in most countries these measures, which are largely voluntary, have
so far only scratched the surface of the problem. Only a small proportion of
existing houses have been significantly affected and there is a lack of rigorous
measurement of the fuel savings actually achieved. Solid wall housing, where
additional insulation has to be applied to the inside or the outside of external walls,
represents a particular problem. For instance, the UK’s ‘Fourth Carbon Budget’ for
2023–2027, stipulates that approximately 8 million solid wall dwellings must be
insulated through the 2020s and beyond.
One promising approach is to progressively tighten regulations for existing
buildings through systematic retrofitting, implemented on a ‘street by street’ basis.
However, in a democracy, and perhaps other forms of government too, such
measures are politically unfeasible in the absence of a real public sense of crisis
over climate change.
Another irony is that the economic return on many energy efficiency measures
in buildings is high by commercial standards and is higher than the rate of return
required by power companies on their investment in energy supply. Efficiency
measures are often not implemented due to high capital investment costs incurred
by the homeowner; likewise, in the case of rented or leased property, both the
tenant and landlord may fail to instigate any refurbishment due to the lengthy
payback periods involved. A number of efforts have been made to overcome this
barrier, for instance through energy service ventures. Most recently, the UK
Government’s Green Deal represents an ingenious attempt to improve the security
available to utilities and other providers entering into service contracts with
consumers.
7. 2 Buildings and Climate Change 29
2.7 Intermediate and High Cost Options
The previously mentioned, low cost options are only part of the story. If we are to
limit expected global warming to 2 °C, as required by the Copenhagen Accord, we
will need to reduce carbon emissions to exceptionally low levels. The basic low
cost measures described above will not be sufficient to achieve this degree of
carbon reduction and it is clear that more radical options will need to be adopted.
What options are available? Sustainable building design can maximize the use
of passive strategies for heating, cooling, ventilation, and lighting, through careful
management of solar heat gains for example. Sustainable design can also minimize
heat loss and store heat in building structures using the property of thermal mass.
There is a current trend for high performance homes to use air source heat pumps
(ASHP) with a heat recovery system. Heat pumps, which concentrate low grade
heat in the surrounding air or underground, can provide heating equivalent of up to
five times the energy they require. District heating can distribute ‘free’ heat from
power stations or industrial plant and can also exploit organic waste in biomass
systems. If the energy demand of buildings could be reduced to exceptionally low
levels, then energy generated by local or micro-renewables, including PV surfaces
integral to the buildings themselves, could potentially meet this demand.
Technology optimization can be complex and is often case specific, dependent
on factors such as climate, planning regulation, physical constraints, and financial
implications. For instance, district heating might prove optimal where ‘free’ heat,
or possibly biowaste, is available close to high demand locations and ground
source heat pumps (GSHP) require access to suitable land for either boreholes or
loop systems. Local renewables might include small scale hydro, wind, and gas
from anaerobic bio digesters.
Complex interactions will inevitably arise in a low carbon built environment
where a significant proportion of energy supply originates from renewables which
provide intermittent generation, such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic
panels. In addition, the transport sector will employ an increasing quantity of
electric vehicles which will place additional demands on electricity distribution
networks. Smart grids of the future will continually balance demand and supply for
electricity and the heat storage capability of buildings is expected to make an
important contribution to the stability of the system, both locally and nationally.
Further research is needed to better understand the transition to such a
sophisticated and dynamic energy future. In addition, research is also required to
improve the performance, reduce the cost, and optimize the deployment of
advanced low carbon technologies such as PV and heat pumps.
Is this kind of transformation feasible over the coming decades? It would be
comparable to the almost complete replacement of household heating in the UK,
from coal to natural gas, which commenced in the 1970s (Hawkes et al. 2011). The
incentives for consumers were powerful in this particular case; natural gas proved
more convenient and transformed comfort levels. For a similar transformation, the
incentives would need to be exceptionally attractive or the regulation very tough,
8. 30 N. Hirst
in order to achieve a comparable shift. Conclusions emerging from a recent
Grantham/IEA workshop (Jennings et al. 2011) suggested that in an ultra-low
carbon world, energy costs will be much higher and the social implications of this
need to be addressed.
2.8 Conclusion
Reducing the carbon intensity of buildings and the services they provide, is a vital
part of the struggle to mitigate climate change. It is essential to secure the benefits
realized by conventional low carbon technology in the early stages. In achieving
such aims, developed countries should take a lead role and support the developing
nations to put in place proved strategies governed by sound regulatory bodies.
Additionally, developed countries should also commit the investment in research
and development (R and D), and pilot schemes, to pioneer the more advanced
technologies and systems that are required to bring about very deep level CO2
reductions for the future built environment. The policy options are diverse and
implementing tough legislation that is practical and cost- effective will be chal-
lenging for governments in developing, and developed countries alike. This book
addresses the key themes of sustainable design within the built environment and is
an essential aid to those who are studying and researching in this area; and
working on the monumental challenge ahead of us.
References
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