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GOLDY SINGH
PRESENTATION ON
DEMAND ESTIMATION AND FORCASTING
PRESENTED BY :
WHAT IS ESTIMATIONOF DEMANDAND
FORECASTING?
â€ĸ Demand estimation and forecasting means predicting future demand
for the product under given conditions and helped the manager in
making decisions with regard to production, sales, investment,
expansion, employment of manpower etc., both in the short run as well as
in the long run.
â€ĸ The term Demand forecasting refers to the prediction of probable
demand for the quantity to be produced in the market.
â€ĸ An Estimation of demand.
FEATURES OF DEMAND FORECASTING
1. Demand Forecasting is a process to investigate and measure the forces
that determine sales for existing and new products.
2. It is an estimation of most likely future demand for a product under
given business conditions.
3. It is basically an educated and well thought out guesswork in terms of
specific quantities
4. Demand Forecasting is done in an uncertain business environment.
5. Demand Forecasting is done for a specific period of time (i.e. the
sufficient time required to take a decision and put it into action).
6. It is based on historical and present information and data.
OBJECTIVES/TYPES OF DEMANDFORCASTING
1. SHORT TERM OBJECTIVE (3
Months to 5 years)
īƒ˜Capacity utilisation
īƒ˜Inventory management
īƒ˜Determining price strategy
īƒ˜Better financial management
īƒ˜Formation os sales strategy
2. LONG TERM OBJECTIVE (5 .
YEARS TO 20 YEARS)
īƒ˜ Project expansion,modernization
and rationalization
īƒ˜ Long term financial planning
īƒ˜ Cost reduction techniques
īƒ˜ Improving and strengthening the
production life cycle
1. Identification of product.
2. Determining objectives of demand forecasting.
3. Determining scope of demand forecasting.
4. Identifying the risk involved.
5. Collection and analysis of data.
6. Methodology to be used.
7. Interpretation, conclusion and decision.
8. Reviewing the decision.
PROCESS OF DEMAND FORECASTING
FACTORS AFFECTING DEMANDFORCASTING
Demand is never constant and fluctuates with the change in certain factors related to the
commodity and the market in which the business operates. With the changing demand,
it’s forecasting also varies.
Methods of Demand Forecasting
1) Survey Method
A) Opinion survey
B) Consumer interview
īƒ˜Complete enumeration
īƒ˜Sample survey
īƒ˜End use method
2) Statistical Method
A) Trend projection
B) Correlation regression
C) Barometric or Economic
Indicators Method
1. SURVEY METHOD
â€ĸ A survey method is a process, tool, or technique that you can use to gather information
in research by asking questions to a predefined group of people. Typically, it facilitates
the exchange of information between the research participants and the person or
organization carrying out the research.
A) Opinion survey- An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a poll or a survey, is a
human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample.
B) Consumer interview- A customer interview allows you to speak to the people that
matter most — the ones who buy your product. It's a great way to find out what
plagues your customers, what solutions they're looking for, and how you fare
compared to your competitors. Customer interviews can be conducted in two ways.
īƒ˜Complete enumeration- What is a census (complete enumeration)? A census is a study
of every unit, everyone or everything, in a population. It is known as a complete
enumeration, which means a complete count.
īƒ˜Sample survey- Sample surveys are a methodology that focuses on selecting a set of
individuals capable of representing the target population.
2. Statistical Method
The statistical method is one of the important methods of demand
forecasting. Statistical methods are scientific, reliable and free from biases.
The major statistical methods used for demand forecasting are:
A) Trend projection- The trend projection method is based on the assumption that
the factors liable for the past trends in the variables to be projected shall
continue to play their role in the future in the same manner and to the same
extent as they did in the past while determining the variable's magnitude and
direction.
B) Correlation regression- Correlation quantifies the strength of the linear
relationship between a pair of variables.
C) Barometric or Economic Indicators Method- Economic indicators as a method of
demand forecasting are developed recently. In this method forecasting follows the
method adopted by meteorologists in weather forecasting and a few economic
indicators become the basis for forecasting the sales of a company. An economic
indicator indicates change in the magnitude of an economic variable. It gives the signal
about the direction of change in an economic variable.
DEMAND ESTIMATION AND  FORCASTING.pptx

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DEMAND ESTIMATION AND FORCASTING.pptx

  • 1. GOLDY SINGH PRESENTATION ON DEMAND ESTIMATION AND FORCASTING PRESENTED BY :
  • 2. WHAT IS ESTIMATIONOF DEMANDAND FORECASTING? â€ĸ Demand estimation and forecasting means predicting future demand for the product under given conditions and helped the manager in making decisions with regard to production, sales, investment, expansion, employment of manpower etc., both in the short run as well as in the long run. â€ĸ The term Demand forecasting refers to the prediction of probable demand for the quantity to be produced in the market. â€ĸ An Estimation of demand.
  • 3. FEATURES OF DEMAND FORECASTING 1. Demand Forecasting is a process to investigate and measure the forces that determine sales for existing and new products. 2. It is an estimation of most likely future demand for a product under given business conditions. 3. It is basically an educated and well thought out guesswork in terms of specific quantities 4. Demand Forecasting is done in an uncertain business environment. 5. Demand Forecasting is done for a specific period of time (i.e. the sufficient time required to take a decision and put it into action). 6. It is based on historical and present information and data.
  • 4. OBJECTIVES/TYPES OF DEMANDFORCASTING 1. SHORT TERM OBJECTIVE (3 Months to 5 years) īƒ˜Capacity utilisation īƒ˜Inventory management īƒ˜Determining price strategy īƒ˜Better financial management īƒ˜Formation os sales strategy 2. LONG TERM OBJECTIVE (5 . YEARS TO 20 YEARS) īƒ˜ Project expansion,modernization and rationalization īƒ˜ Long term financial planning īƒ˜ Cost reduction techniques īƒ˜ Improving and strengthening the production life cycle
  • 5. 1. Identification of product. 2. Determining objectives of demand forecasting. 3. Determining scope of demand forecasting. 4. Identifying the risk involved. 5. Collection and analysis of data. 6. Methodology to be used. 7. Interpretation, conclusion and decision. 8. Reviewing the decision. PROCESS OF DEMAND FORECASTING
  • 6. FACTORS AFFECTING DEMANDFORCASTING Demand is never constant and fluctuates with the change in certain factors related to the commodity and the market in which the business operates. With the changing demand, it’s forecasting also varies.
  • 7. Methods of Demand Forecasting 1) Survey Method A) Opinion survey B) Consumer interview īƒ˜Complete enumeration īƒ˜Sample survey īƒ˜End use method 2) Statistical Method A) Trend projection B) Correlation regression C) Barometric or Economic Indicators Method
  • 8. 1. SURVEY METHOD â€ĸ A survey method is a process, tool, or technique that you can use to gather information in research by asking questions to a predefined group of people. Typically, it facilitates the exchange of information between the research participants and the person or organization carrying out the research. A) Opinion survey- An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a poll or a survey, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. B) Consumer interview- A customer interview allows you to speak to the people that matter most — the ones who buy your product. It's a great way to find out what plagues your customers, what solutions they're looking for, and how you fare compared to your competitors. Customer interviews can be conducted in two ways. īƒ˜Complete enumeration- What is a census (complete enumeration)? A census is a study of every unit, everyone or everything, in a population. It is known as a complete enumeration, which means a complete count. īƒ˜Sample survey- Sample surveys are a methodology that focuses on selecting a set of individuals capable of representing the target population.
  • 9. 2. Statistical Method The statistical method is one of the important methods of demand forecasting. Statistical methods are scientific, reliable and free from biases. The major statistical methods used for demand forecasting are: A) Trend projection- The trend projection method is based on the assumption that the factors liable for the past trends in the variables to be projected shall continue to play their role in the future in the same manner and to the same extent as they did in the past while determining the variable's magnitude and direction. B) Correlation regression- Correlation quantifies the strength of the linear relationship between a pair of variables. C) Barometric or Economic Indicators Method- Economic indicators as a method of demand forecasting are developed recently. In this method forecasting follows the method adopted by meteorologists in weather forecasting and a few economic indicators become the basis for forecasting the sales of a company. An economic indicator indicates change in the magnitude of an economic variable. It gives the signal about the direction of change in an economic variable.