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Analytics - Sports Style, ESPN
This document summarizes how analytics can be applied to different sports. It discusses how revenue drives decisions in sports and how analytics can help evaluate personnel, coaching strategies, and performance at both the individual and team level. It provides examples of how analytics approaches work in baseball, football, basketball and soccer. Key metrics are discussed like expected points, QBR, and evaluating factors that influence things like sacks and quarterback play. The document emphasizes that analytics can provide an independent perspective to evaluate in-game decisions and strategies.
Analytics - Sports Style, ESPN
- 1. Analytics – SportsStyle Dean Oliver, Director of Production Analytics 11/4/2011 Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit
- 2. WHAT MAKES ITSPORTS ANALYTICS? Revenue = Winning
- 3. DECISIONS IN SPORTS PERSONNEL COACHING Shortor Long Term?
- 4. HOW DOES BASEBALLWORK?
- 5. HOW DOES FOOTBALLWORK? Expected Net Points (10 Yards or Goal To Go) 1st Down 2nd Down 3rd Down 4th Down OWNENDZONE OPPONENTENDZONE 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 1 0
- 6. HOW DOES SOCCERWORK?
- 7. HOW DOES BASKETBALLWORK? Shooting Rebounding Free ThrowsTurnovers
- 8. SPORTS ANALYTICS RESOURCES •Baseball – Baseball Abstract, Hidden Game of Baseball • Football – Hidden Game of Football, ESPN, Football Outsiders • Basketball – Basketball on Paper, JQAS article • Soccer – Soccerquantified.com, onfooty.com, dectech.org/blog /football, 5addedminutes.wordpress.com
- 9. SUM OF PARTSAS WHOLE • Team Performance = Sum of Individual Values + Fit – Ni is number of players on team of type i – is the coefficient on the regression – is the “misfit” of the model, but the “fit” of the team 44332211 ResultTeam NNNN • Problems: • Collinearity • Not necessarily sum of parts • How? Why?
- 10. TOTAL QBR • Regressionfor – Expected Points – Win % and “clutch weight” – Simple division of credit • Mechanistic evaluation for – Turnovers – Complex plays • Goal: Who is better? Why?
- 11. CHICAGO BEARS PROBLEM •Is it the QB or the line? – 21st in pass offense, 3rd in sacks allowed – Jay Cutler 22nd in QBR • 10th while “under pressure” • If average pressure: Extra 0.7 ppg • If Tom Brady-like pressure: Extra 1.3 ppg • If Tom Brady-like ability: Extra 6-7 ppg
- 12. ANALYTICS IN DECISIONS •People see games better, but statistics see all the games. • Analytics provide independent opinion.
- 13. LANGUAGE DIFFICULTY • “Bendbut don’t break defense” • “Control the line of scrimmage” • “Defense wins championships” • A “great” player, trade, strategy • “It ain’t over until it’s over.”
- 14.
Editor's Notes
- #2 What are the numbers that not only predict who will win in sports, but allow you to control winning? That is the big question in sports analytics. To do that requires knowing how the game works and how the statistics work. Coaches and sports management have great knowledge of how their games work, but applying quant methods is the next increment in assuring they have a little more knowledge than the teams they are competing against. This creates the niche for those who know stats and sports really well.
- #13 Sports are very visible so everyone has an opinionQBR is highly predictable if you watch the game, but not otherwise.Change the outcome, not predict the outcome.