Analytics - Sports Style, ESPN

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This document summarizes how analytics can be applied to different sports. It discusses how revenue drives decisions in sports and how analytics can help evaluate personnel, coaching strategies, and performance at both the individual and team level. It provides examples of how analytics approaches work in baseball, football, basketball and soccer. Key metrics are discussed like expected points, QBR, and evaluating factors that influence things like sacks and quarterback play. The document emphasizes that analytics can provide an independent perspective to evaluate in-game decisions and strategies.

Sports News & Politics

Analytics – Sports Style
Dean Oliver, Director of Production Analytics
11/4/2011
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WHAT MAKES IT SPORTS ANALYTICS?
Revenue
=
Winning

DECISIONS IN SPORTS
PERSONNEL
COACHING
Short or Long
Term?

HOW DOES FOOTBALL WORK?
Expected Net Points (10 Yards or Goal To Go)
1st Down
2nd Down
3rd Down
4th Down
OWNENDZONE
OPPONENTENDZONE
1 0
1 0
2 0
2 0
3 0
3 0
4 0
4 0
5 0
5 0
4 0
4 0
3 0
3 0
2 0
2 0
1 0
1 0

HOW DOES BASKETBALL WORK?
Shooting
Rebounding
Free ThrowsTurnovers

SPORTS ANALYTICS RESOURCES
• Baseball
– Baseball Abstract, Hidden Game of Baseball
• Football
– Hidden Game of Football, ESPN, Football Outsiders
• Basketball
– Basketball on Paper, JQAS article
• Soccer
– Soccerquantified.com, onfooty.com, dectech.org/blog
/football, 5addedminutes.wordpress.com

SUM OF PARTS AS WHOLE
• Team Performance = Sum of Individual Values + Fit
– Ni is number of players on team of type i
–  is the coefficient on the regression
–  is the “misfit” of the model, but the “fit” of the team
  44332211
ResultTeam NNNN
• Problems:
• Collinearity
• Not necessarily sum of parts
• How? Why?

TOTAL QBR
• Regression for
– Expected Points
– Win % and “clutch weight”
– Simple division of credit
• Mechanistic evaluation for
– Turnovers
– Complex plays
• Goal: Who is better? Why?

CHICAGO BEARS PROBLEM
• Is it the QB or the line?
– 21st in pass offense, 3rd in sacks allowed
– Jay Cutler 22nd in QBR
• 10th while “under pressure”
• If average pressure: Extra 0.7 ppg
• If Tom Brady-like pressure: Extra 1.3 ppg
• If Tom Brady-like ability: Extra 6-7 ppg

ANALYTICS IN DECISIONS
• People see games better, but statistics see all
the games.
• Analytics provide independent opinion.

LANGUAGE DIFFICULTY
• “Bend but don’t break defense”
• “Control the line of scrimmage”
• “Defense wins championships”
• A “great” player, trade, strategy
• “It ain’t over until it’s over.”

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