This document provides information about the STAT 98/198 course "Intro to Sports Statistics" offered at UC Berkeley in Spring 2016. The course is an interactive introduction to baseball, basketball, and football analytics, discussing performance statistics and sabermetrics. Students will analyze current and historical data to understand sports statistics at a higher level. The course meets weekly and has assignments including readings, reflection papers, and a final group project applying statistics to propose a team management plan.

1. STAT 98/198: Intro to Sports Statistics
University of California, Berkeley
Spring 2016
Facilitators: Lisa Sinow, Jason Spector, Kent Chen
Email: sportsstatsdecal@gmail.com
Course website: decal.org/courses/sportsstats
Faculty Sponsor: Shobhana Stoyanov
Every sports fan has something in common: they have a deep passion for their respective sport and also
have a desire to understand the performance their favorite team or players. With the big data revolution
such as the “moneyball” movement sweeping across professional sports and the explosion of fantasy
sports, it is even more important to understand how to read the numbers as the average sports fan may
want to optimize his or her lineup or understand the team’s decision in player transactions. In this decade,
sports statistics go beyond the traditional box score as there as statistics such as Player Efficiency Rating
(PER), Wins Above Replacement (WAR), +/- that are becoming mainstream.
This interactive, discussion-based course is an introduction to sports statistics, touching upon basic
baseball, basketball, and football analytics. We will discuss the game of baseball, basketball, and football
via searching for objective knowledge in performance of each respective sports. Other areas of
sabermetrics will be analyzed and better understood with current and historical data for each respective
sport to give you the tools you need to be able to analyze sports statistics on a higher level. By the end of
this course, we hope you have gained an understanding of sports statistics and can relate them to some
aspect of your life.
Class time: Tuesdays, 5-7 pm at 210 Wheeler
Prerequisites: None, other than having an interest in learning about sports and their statistics. Knowing
the basic rules and vocabularies of the games is helpful but not required.
Grade Breakdown:
30% Attendance
20% Unit Reflection Paper
20% Readings
30% Project - groups of 2-3, 5-10 minute presentations
Attendance:
Missing more than three classes will result in a failing grade. If you know you will be missing class ahead
of time, please send us an email.
Unit Reflection Paper:

2. Unit reflection papers will be due the week following the completion of each unit. Write 1.5-2 pages
reflecting upon what you learned from the unit and how you will apply it (to watching a particular sport,
other aspects of life)
Readings:
One article and summary required per week. We will post suggested articles but readings/summaries are
not limited to the articles we post.
Project: "What I would do if I were the General Manager of ______"
Using the information covered in class and any other resources you can find, propose a realistic
off-season/mid-season plan for a team of your choice. It can be any sport, not just the ones
covered. The budget and information on prospects will be provided. The presentation groups
should be 2-3 people and the presentations will be 5-10 minutes long.
Week One (1/19 - 1/22):
DeCal Expo, advertise for the class
Week Two (1/25 - 1/29):
Introduction to the course
Week Three (2/1 - 2/5): Football
Introduction to Football
Player values - most important, monetary value
The single player who matters the most, the quarterback
Most important stat in football, sacks vs Passer Rating
How much is a player worth? Comparing players
The passing offense, why teams are going to the air
Week Four (2/8 - 2/12): Football
Big data in Football
Big data in football
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-big-data-transforming-football-nfl-bernard-
marr?trk=hp-feed-article-title-channel-add
Fantasy football
The perfect team, fantasy football
Week Five (2/15 - 2/19): Basketball
Introduction to Basketball
History of statistics
breaking down a scorecard
Understanding the stat sheet. What it all means!
+/- what is it?
The most important stat, points, how to win games with offensive efficiency

3. Fast paced vs. slow paced style, which is better?
Week Six (2/22 - 2/26): Basketball
Game Strategies: game pace, rebounds, long shots vs inside post
The three vs the inside post, why teams are shooting the three more
Cover the glass, why rebounds matter
Playoff Dwight Howard, does he become superman during the playoffs
Week Seven (2/29 - 3/4): Basketball
Case study player analysis
Projecting NBA Careers CARMELO
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-predicting-nba-player-career/
WAR (Wins above replacement)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-53-best-franchise-players-in-the-nba
Do stats tell it all, Kobe vs. Lebron vs. Michael Jordan
Week Eight (3/7 - 3/11): Baseball
Introduction to Baseball Sabermetrics
History
Definition of Sabermetrics
Basic Hitting Metrics
Week Nine (3/14 - 3/18): Baseball
Hitting analytics
Runs to Wins
Different Run Scoring Environments
Run Estimators
Assign Final Project
Spring Break (3/21-3/25):
No Class
Week Ten (3/28 - 4/1): Baseball
Fielding Analytics
Problem with Fielding Metrics
What is wrong with errors? Errors over time
What is wrong with Fielding %?
Derek Jeter and Ozzie Smith comparison (very interesting!)
Range factor, RF/9
Beyond Box Score Data
Batted Ball Tracking Metrics
http://sabr.org/research/measuring-defense-entering-zones-fielding-statistics

4. http://207.56.97.150/articles/defeval.htm
Week Eleven (4/4 - 4/8): Baseball
Pitching Analytics
Wins/Losses (Problems with W/L)
Bullpens
ERA Problems
Skill Metrics
Game Metrics
Pitching Runs
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878
http://207.56.97.150/articles/ipavg2.htm
FIP and XFIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&seas
on=2015&month=30&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
&sort=19,d
Week Twelve (4/11 - 4/15): Baseball
Wins Above Replacement
Offense
Baserunning
Pitching
Fielding
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/def/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/positional-adjustment/
Replacement Level
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/replacement-level/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/adam-dunn-juan-pierre-why-we-need-wins-above-
replacement-stat/
http://joeposnanski.com/explaining-cabrera-trout-and-war/
Week Thirteen (4/18 - 4/22): Presentations
Week Fourteen (4/25 - 4/29): Presentations
Week Fifteen: RRR Week, no class