5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Moving your turtles to the margin
Dr Carl A. Gibson
Country Fire Authority Australia &
La Trobe University
Director Risk Management
Ivan Pupulidy PhDc
US Forest Service
Director Office of Learning

2. Origin of Margin of Maneuver

6. Normal Work?
Workers make
operational
trade-offs.
Normalization
of risk.
WE can’t agree
about risk
values!

7. Risk Perception
• Risk is Conceived
Perceived,
Communicated
very differently.
• What is normal for
one person is quite
different for
another.

8. Perception of Safety
• Safe operation, in reality, is a complicated and messy
business.
• We respond to the feeling of safety in mysterious
ways.

9. 9
Resilience
Individual
Organizational
Tactical
Strategic
Resilience
Learning

10. 10
Resilience
Individual
Organizational
Strategic
Resilience
Learning
Tactical
Tactical
Margin

11. Problem
Challenge of
understanding
Challenge of
recognition
Challenge of
communication
Challenge of
action

12. Challenge of
understanding
Challenge of
communication
Challenge of
action Problem
Understand
implications
Challenge of
recognition
Share
information
Action &
experiment
Recognise
change in
conditions
Innovation

13. Social & cognitive network
Easily applied
Conceptualise
Intuitive
NXew
What we already do

14. 14
Margin of Manoeuvre

15. 15
Margin of Manoeuvre
Uncertainty
Operating
conditions

16. 16
Margin of Manoeuvre
Volatility
Uncertainty
Operating
conditions

17. Margin of Manoeuvre
Uncertainty
Operating
conditions
Volatility Ambiguity

18. 18
Margin of Manoeuvre
Uncertainty
Dysfunctional
relationships
Operating
conditions
Volatility Ambiguity

19. Margin of Manoeuvre
Shared
understanding

20. 20
Margin of Manoeuvre
Shared
understanding
Emergent
leadership

21. Margin of Manoeuvre
Shared
sensemaking
Emergent
leadership
Innovation
Adaptive capacity
Relationships

22. Not just a theory
In practice today
Improving performance
and saving lives

24. Dynamics of Influence & Change
24

25. Questions/Discussion

26. 26
Resilience
Individual
Organizational
Tactical
Strategic
Resilience
Learning

27. Things that never happened before –
happen all the time. Lee Clarke

28. 28
Resilience
Individual
Organizational
Tactical
Strategic
Resilience
Learning