CSCR Opening Plenary w/Dave Wolfe: Regional Climate Impacts on Ecosystems, Agriculture, and Human Communities.
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Climate Smart & Climate Ready Conference Opening Plenary on April 20, 2013 at Cinempolis in Ithaca, NY. David Wolfe, Dept. Horticulture, Cornell University. Sustainable Farms, Landscapes and Communities for a Changing Climate
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CSCR Opening Plenary w/Dave Wolfe: Regional Climate Impacts on Ecosystems, Agriculture, and Human Communities.
- 1. Sustainable Farms, Landscapes and Communities for a Changing Climate David W. Wolfe Cornell University dww5@cornell.edu www.climatechange.cornell.edu
- 2. Rapid Shift in âPlant Hardinessâ Zones Source: www.arborday.org (maps based on minimum winter temperatures; prior 15 years of weather station record) Can we and the natural world adapt to this accelerating pace of change?
- 3. Apples are blooming 8 days earlier than they were in the 1960s Grapes are blooming 6 days earlier Lilacs are blooming 4 days earlier [Source: Wolfe DW et al. 2005. Internat J Biometeor 49:303-309.] National Phenology Network: http://www.usanpn.org The living world is responding to climate change: For example, in the Northeastern USâŠ.
- 4. Warmer winters in NE = more pest and invasive species pressure Hemlock Wooly Adelgid Corn earworm Kudzu
- 5. Deer benefit from less snow because they can feed on more exposed vegetation all winter. Deer prefer certain plant species.N2O flux Snow cover affects soil microbial activity that determines nitrogen retention in soils and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Less snow cover reduces winter prey for the Canadian Lynx Snow Cover and Subnivian Ecology
- 6. 2012: Apple blossoms under snow and 30-50% of NYS crop lost Expect the unexpected: More frost and freeze damage in a warmer winter world?
- 7. As each species responds uniquely to climate change: How will this affect the synchrony between organisms? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Host Parasite Plants and pollinators? Natural enemies of insect pests? DAYS NumberinPopulation
- 8. Climate change will forever alter the fabric of our forests and other natural landscapes⊠âŠwith implications for ecosystem âservicesâ
- 9. Ecosystems will be disassembling and re- assembling in new ways. Will species be able to move and adapt to climate change? Do we manage for stability, or facilitate change? What is an invasive species in this context?Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/). Iverson et al. 2008. MITI. 13:487-516.
- 10. but will also bring with it increased weed, disease, and insect pressure, damaging summer heat stress, and new challenges for water management For farmers and gardeners the NE US ⊠Climate change might allow exploration of new species and varieties,
- 11. Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Decision makers will require new climate-based tools for strategic adaptation. ï Is this ânormalâ bad weather or climate change?? ï Do I invest in a new drainage system?... ï Or irrigation system? ï Or both? ï And when?
- 12. Required compaction prior to laying pavement Adaptation and Urban Planning Example: âstructural soilâ and porous asphalt for better drainage âStructural Soilâ allows required compaction AND good drainage and root penetration Porous Asphalt Sydney Olympic site with structural soil
- 13. An Incentive for Mitigation: Economic Development and Climate Change Are Intricately Linked Unmitigated climate change will divert tax dollars away from sustainable development projects and towards . . . . . CC Impacts We are not exempt from impacts occurring elsewhere
- 14. Mitigation and Urban Planning Example: Trees lower energy costs and sequester carbon
- 15. Mitigation:Mitigation: Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy on the Farmon the Farm
- 16. Cow Power Anaerobic Digester Re-coupling animal and crop production systems to re-cycle nitrogen, carbon, energy
- 17. Legume N instead of fertilizer NLegume N instead of fertilizer N A broader view of ârenewable energyââŠA broader view of ârenewable energyââŠ
- 18. Excess Nitrogen in Urban Environments: turf is a significant contributor There are over 3 million acres of lawn in New York state alone!
- 19. Consumer choices affect farmer choices, and the carbon footprint of agriculture
- 20. Final Thoughts: âIf you look at the science about what is happening on earth and arenât pessimistic, you donât understand data. But if you meet the people who are working to restore this earth and the lives of the poor, and you arenât optimistic, you havenât got a pulseâ. --Paul Hawken, American environmentalist, entrepreneur, author âI do not believe we can look for leadership beyond ourselvesâ. --Terry Tempest Williams, American author, conservationist
Editor's Notes
- Caption (figure): Much of the Northeast is currently dominated by hardwood forests composed of maple, beech, and birch; higher altitudes and latitudes are dominated by spruce/fir forests. As the climate changes this century, suitable habitat for spruce and fir species is expected to contract dramatically under either emissions scenario (compared with observed forest distribution in the 1990s, shown here as âcurrentâ). Suitable maple/beech/birch habitat is projected with move significantly northward under the higher-emissions scenario, but shift far less under the lower-emissions scenario. (The âotherâ category includes species such as red, white, and jack pine.) Caption (logging truck): A Treasured but Threatened Resource. Residents and tourists alike value the Northeastâs forests (such as this mix of hardwoods and conifers in northern Vermont) for timber and firewood, scenery and solitude, and recreational activities such as hunting, fishing, skiing, snowmobiling, hiking, canoeing, and bird-watching. Projected changes in Northeast forests NECIA researchers modeled potential shifts in the distribution of habitat suitable for 134 tree species throughout the Northeast (based on their current climatic range) under both the lower- and higher-emissions scenarios. Another NECIA analysis examined the potential impact of rising temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 (individually and combined) on productivity (growth), net carbon uptake, nitrogen cycling, and water yield in five forest research sites across the region. A third analysis modeled changes in the expanding range of a forest insect pest, the hemlock woolly adelgid. Finally, another study analyzed the way in which the distribution of birds might change as forest habitat shifts over time and habitat quality declines. Habitat suitable for most of the regionâs tree species is projected to move northeast as the climate continues to warm. The maximum range shift is projected to be about 500 miles in response to the climate changes expected this century under the higher-emissions scenario; the maximum range shift would be about 350 miles if lower emissions prevail. While trees can persist in areas where the climate is no longer well suited to their requirements, they may become less productive and more vulnerable to competition and other stresses, ultimately risking displacement by better-suited species. Spruce/Fir Forests The most vulnerable of the Northeastâs forests are the vast cool-climate communities dominated by conifers such as red spruce and balsam fir. Suitable habitat for the group of species that make up spruce/fir forests is projected to diminish substantially with global warming under either emissions scenario. All areas of the Northeast now dominated by spruce/fir forests are projected to become less suitable for this group of tree species, and better suited to others. As this happens, habitat for different species of spruce and fir trees is projected to change at different rates, but these rates are consistently greater under the higher-emissions scenario. Wildlife habitat The spruce/fir forests of the Northeast are home to species such as the snowshoe hare, American marten, and endangered Canada lynx that are already living at the southern edge of their range. Thus, these species are vulnerable to any further loss of habitat in the U.S. portion of their range. High-elevation forest High-elevation spruce/fir forests, confined to the Northeastâs mountains, cover just 1 percent of the regionâs landscape today. These forests are currently restricted to specific climate conditions and are likely to see a decline in range as the climate changes. Only under the lower-emissions scenario is habitat suitable for these high-elevation forests likely to remain into the next century, though the long-lived nature of trees could enable patches of spruce/fir to persist for some time under either scenario. These forests, in turn, provide unique habitat for a number of threatened bird species. Industry Dramatic declines in spruce/fir forests projected under the higher-emissions scenario would greatly exacerbate stresses on the Northeastâs economically important pulp and paper industry, particularly in Maine. Winter warming, in addition to its direct role in redefining tree habitat, interferes with traditional timber harvesting practices in the region, which typically take advantage of the cold winter months when soils are frozen, minimizing the soil damage that could be caused by the heavy equipment used for cutting trees. As winters continue to warm over the coming century, forest soils will remain frozen for shorter periods, freeze less deeply, or potentially not freeze at all in more southerly areas.
- Wind power is being used to make electricity on some farms, such as Butterworks Farm, described in a project case study. States with net metering laws allow the sale of electricity to the grid, so the farmer gets value from the power generated even if it is not made at the same time there is similar demand on the farm.
- The manufacture of synthetic fertilizer N is highly energy dependent and as a results contributes to GHG; using legumes to meet the N needs of a cropping system is a good alternative, although itâs not usually considered along with renewable energy.