Climate Smart & Climate Ready Conference Opening Plenary on April 20, 2013 at Cinempolis in Ithaca, NY. David Kay, Dept. Development Sociology, Cornell University. Community Planning, Climate Change and Uncertainty in a Home Rule State.

1. Panel:
Climate Impacts and Local Response
Cinemapolis Theater 1
April 20, 2013 9:15-10:30 AM
David Kay, Senior Extension Associate
Cornell Community and Regional Development Institute
(CaRDI)
dlk2@cornell.edu

2. Planning for Risk,
Planning for Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a quality to be cherished therefore – if not for it,
who would dare to undertake anything?
August de Villiers d l’Isle-Adam

3. According to historical data about rainfall and stream stage,
the probability of X River reaching [flood stage] is once in 100 years.
In other words, a flood of that magnitude has a
1 percent chance of happening in ANY year.
http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/100yearflood.html
Planning for Risk:
USGS Explains 100 Year Floods

4. Biggert-Waters (!) Flood Insurance Reform and
Modernization Act of 2012
BFE = Base
Flood
Elevation
Flood Insurance Rate
Map (FIRM)

5. B-W Ends Insurance Subsidies
for….
 Newly purchased property
Property where NFIP coverage was deliberately allowed to
lapse
Properties receiving an offer of mitigation assistance
following a major disaster, or in connection with a repetitive
loss property
Repetitive loss or severe repetitive loss properties
Businesses
Non-primary residences
Substantially damaged property
Property (at least) 30% improved

6. Implications for Planning
What structures/property owners will be affected,
where in your community?
What will their likely response be to higher rates?
Who will stay, who will leave?
What will happen to the properties?
Policy response regarding property maintenance,
housing availability, land use and zoning,
commercial districts, etc.

7. When Uncertainty Dominates…
“ A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in
the literature…. Planners should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to
short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions…. to allow for
its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. “
Summary:
Establish goals,
avoid paralysis by analysis,
keep options open, learn and adapt

8. Planning When Uncertainty Dominates…
Implications
Focus on decisions and variables that have
large influences on outcomes, tipping points,
path dependencies, points of no return, stable
versus unstable solutions
Be extra cautious about large, irreversible
resource commitments
Developing, attending to new information is
critical:
Measure, monitor, evaluate, review,
incorporate, revise, routinize all of these

9. Governance,
Home Rule

10. Regionalism & Climate Change
Example 1 - Sedimentation
Project Sponsor:
City of Ithaca
Other Involved Agencies:
US Army Corps of Engineers
NYS Dept. of Environmental
Conservation
NYS Canal Corporation

11. Regionalism & Climate Change:
Example 2 - Lake Level Flooding

12. Smart Growth –
Mitigation, Adaptation Strategy
Reducing
Energy
Consumption
Reducing
impermeable
surfaces
Preserving
Rural Forest,
Woodlots,
Farms,
Wetlands, etc

13. Who decides? Who are “we”?
What’s “home”?
Structures of decision making and
governance (government)

14. Comp Planning – Status In NYS
“Energy issues are often not addressed through comprehensive planning at the local
level. While some communities have identified specific strategies, or created certain
goals related to energy generation and energy efficiency, the majority of plans
searched contain little to no such language. What is most surprising is that many of
the findings summarized below come from municipalities and counties belonging to
ICLEI, and should thus represent the communities most committed to sustainability
in the state.” OVERVIEW & CHECKLIST OF M UNICIPAL
ENERGY PLANNING STRATEGIES IN NEW
YORK STATE Adam Blair, CaRDI, Cornell
University DRAFT –June 2012

15. Local Planning I
7 Major Energy
and Climate
Protection Goals
36 specific
recommendations
The Ithaca Town Board
public hearing on the draft
Comprehensive Plan on
Monday, 4/22/13 at 6:30 p.m.
in the Ithaca Town Hall
Board Room at 215 N. Tioga
Street.
The purpose of the Public
Hearing is to provide an
opportunity for Town
residents and other
interested persons to provide
comments on the draft
Comprehensive Plan (dated
12/5/12).

16. Local Planning II
City Comprehensive Plan
Sustainability Audit

17. Local Planning – General
http://cardi.cornell.edu/cals/devsoc/outreach/cardi/programs/energy.cfm

18. Benefits of centralized authority
Internalizes externalities (e.g. when pollution crosses political
boundaries). Costs and benefits are borne by groups represented by
the deciding authority.
Consistent and uniform regulation. Costs of regulation are
reduced for businesses active in multiple communities. Larger scale
enables more efficient administration and enforcement, and improves
the science on which regulation is based.
Negotiating power. Centralization assembles power, reducing the
mismatch between small state and local governments and large
corporate or other special interests.
Prevents a race to the bottom. Centralized minimum standards of
human health and environmental quality can remove the incentive for
state and local governments to compete for investment by lowering
standards.

19. Benefits of decentralized
authority
Experimentation and innovation. Decentralized authority stimulates
a race to the top as state and local governments compete to adopt
successful innovation.
Reduced chance of regulatory capture. Powerful interests have a
harder time influencing, or “capturing”, separate agencies than a single
centralized one.
Flexibility. Approaches can be more responsive and easily tailored to
variable state and local conditions.
Democracy is enhanced. Government closer to the people facilitates
more meaningful democratic participation and citizenship.