"Determinants and Welfare Effects of Smallholder Export Participation in Kyrgyzstan" presented by Damir Esenaliev, at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Pakistan's major agricultural issues since independence and how agriculture's contributions has drastically declined in comparison with manufacturing and services businesses.
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Pakistan's major agricultural issues since independence and how agriculture's contributions has drastically declined in comparison with manufacturing and services businesses.
Priyanka Parvathi, Rattiya Suddeephong Lippe, and Hermann Waibel, Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover
Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia conference “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. An international conference jointly organized by ReSAKSS-Asia, IFPRI, TDRI, and TVSEP project of Leibniz Universit Hannover with support from USAID and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) at the Dusit Thani Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand December 12–14, 2017.
Analysis of the effects of monetary and fiscal policy indicators on agricultu...researchagriculture
The research was conducted to determine the effect of monetary and fiscal policy indicators on Nigeria’s agricultural output. The output considered were mainly cereals such as maize, sorghum, rice, millet and wheat while the monetary policy indicators studied were inflation, money supply, interest rate and savings. Budgetary allocation represents the fiscal component while inflation, savings, interest rate, money supply represented monetary policy indicators. One of the fundamental objectives was to examine the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy indicators on agricultural output. Multiple regression was used as the main analytical tool, and the result showed that money supply, budgetary allocation, interest rate were 94%, 54% and 82% significant in the order above i.e. they had significant relationship with output, while inflation and savings were not significant. The result also revealed that within the period of study, agriculture contributed 28% to 35% of the gross domestic product. Forestry and fisheries contributed the least, while crop and animal sub sectors contributed the highest.
Article Citation:
Okidim IA and Albert CO.
Analysis of the Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Indicators on Agricultural
Output (Cereal) (1990-2000).
Journal of Research in Agriculture (2012) 1(1): 058-064.
Full Text:
http://www.jagri.info/documents/AG0021.pdf
Analysis of the effects of monetary and fiscal policy indicators on agricult...researchagriculture
The research was conducted to determine the effect of monetary and fiscal
policy indicators on Nigeria’s agricultural output. The output considered were mainly
cereals such as maize, sorghum, rice, millet and wheat while the monetary policy
indicators studied were inflation, money supply, interest rate and savings. Budgetary
allocation represents the fiscal component while inflation, savings, interest rate,
money supply represented monetary policy indicators. One of the fundamental
objectives was to examine the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy
indicators on agricultural output. Multiple regression was used as the main analytical
tool, and the result showed that money supply, budgetary allocation, interest rate
were 94%, 54% and 82% significant in the order above i.e. they had significant
relationship with output, while inflation and savings were not significant. The result
also revealed that within the period of study, agriculture contributed 28% to 35% of
the gross domestic product. Forestry and fisheries contributed the least, while crop
and animal sub sectors contributed the highest.
Presented at the Pulses for Sustainable Agriculture and Human Health” on 31 May-1 June 2016 at NASC, New Delhi, India. The conference was jointly organised by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS), TCi of Cornell University (TCi-CU) and Agriculture Today.
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Analysis of the effects of monetary and fiscal policy indicators on agricultu...researchagriculture
The research was conducted to determine the effect of monetary and fiscal policy indicators on Nigeria’s agricultural output. The output considered were mainly cereals such as maize, sorghum, rice, millet and wheat while the monetary policy indicators studied were inflation, money supply, interest rate and savings. Budgetary allocation represents the fiscal component while inflation, savings, interest rate, money supply represented monetary policy indicators. One of the fundamental objectives was to examine the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy indicators on agricultural output. Multiple regression was used as the main analytical tool, and the result showed that money supply, budgetary allocation, interest rate were 94%, 54% and 82% significant in the order above i.e. they had significant relationship with output, while inflation and savings were not significant. The result also revealed that within the period of study, agriculture contributed 28% to 35% of the gross domestic product. Forestry and fisheries contributed the least, while crop and animal sub sectors contributed the highest.
Article Citation:
Okidim IA and Albert CO.
Analysis of the Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Indicators on Agricultural
Output (Cereal) (1990-2000).
Journal of Research in Agriculture (2012) 1(1): 058-064.
Full Text:
http://www.jagri.info/documents/AG0021.pdf
Analysis of the effects of monetary and fiscal policy indicators on agricult...researchagriculture
The research was conducted to determine the effect of monetary and fiscal
policy indicators on Nigeria’s agricultural output. The output considered were mainly
cereals such as maize, sorghum, rice, millet and wheat while the monetary policy
indicators studied were inflation, money supply, interest rate and savings. Budgetary
allocation represents the fiscal component while inflation, savings, interest rate,
money supply represented monetary policy indicators. One of the fundamental
objectives was to examine the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy
indicators on agricultural output. Multiple regression was used as the main analytical
tool, and the result showed that money supply, budgetary allocation, interest rate
were 94%, 54% and 82% significant in the order above i.e. they had significant
relationship with output, while inflation and savings were not significant. The result
also revealed that within the period of study, agriculture contributed 28% to 35% of
the gross domestic product. Forestry and fisheries contributed the least, while crop
and animal sub sectors contributed the highest.
Presented at the Pulses for Sustainable Agriculture and Human Health” on 31 May-1 June 2016 at NASC, New Delhi, India. The conference was jointly organised by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS), TCi of Cornell University (TCi-CU) and Agriculture Today.
Presented at the Pulses for Sustainable Agriculture and Human Health” on 31 May-1 June 2016 at NASC, New Delhi, India. The conference was jointly organised by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS), TCi of Cornell University (TCi-CU) and Agriculture Today.
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The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
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The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
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This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
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students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
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Determinants and Welfare Effects of Smallholder Export Participation in Kyrgyzstan
1. 14-04-21 Footer
Determinants and Welfare
Effects of Smallholder
Export Participation in
Kyrgyzstan
Damir Esenaliev (SIPRI and DIW Berlin)
Isabel Teichmann (DIW Berlin and Humboldt University)
09 April 2014
REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN
CENTRAL ASIA
2. 21/04/14 Footer
Background
Emphasis on smallholder agriculture for global food security
and poverty alleviation (e.g., IFPRI 2011; WDR 2008)
Unresolved debate on trade and poverty, lack of household-
level analysis (Winters et al. 2004)
Research Questions:
1) Determinants of smallholder export participation?
2) Welfare effects of smallholder export participation?
2
3. 21/04/14 Footer
1 Agriculture & Trade in Kyrgyzstan
2 Literature
3 Data & Descriptive Statistics
4 Determinants of Export Participation
5 Welfare Effects of Export Participation
6 Conclusion
Outline
3
5. 21/04/14 Footer
Agriculture1
• Rural population: 65%
• Dominance of small-scale farms
• Role of agriculture in GDP and employment is in decline
10
20
30
40
50
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Percent
Agriculture value added, % of GDP Employment in agriculture, % of total
Food exports, % of goods exports Sources: WDI 2013; NSC 2011
6. 21/04/14 Footer
Trade in Agriculture
Liberal trade regime and unregulated agricultural sector
Main export products: vegetables, fruits, milk, cotton, tobacco
Main export destinations: Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, China, EU
Agricultural Exports, 2000-2011
1
6
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Million2000USD
Tobacco
Cotton
Milk & milk products
Fruits & vegetables
Total
10. 21/04/14 Footer
Life in Kyrgyzstan Survey
• Panel household survey conducted annually by DIW Berlin with
Kyrgyz and German partners over 2010-2012
• Stratified two-stage random sampling based on the 2009
Population Census
• 3000 households (1750 rural), 8160 individuals, 120 communities
• Representative at national, rural/urban, north/south levels
• Data collection: Oct–Dec 2010, Sept–Oct 2011
Agricultural module:
• General sales activity, export participation, quality-related aspects
of agricultural production
3
10
11. 21/04/14 Footer
Descriptive Statistics
Sub-sample of rural households
Households active in agriculture and sell own products
Active as smallholders
Sample of 711 rural smallholder households
Source: LiK 2011
3
11
All households of which, participate in ..
domestic market export market
Total 711 477 234
% to total 100 67 33
North 298 189 109
South 413 288 125
15. 21/04/14 Footer
Descriptive Statistics
Welfare indicators
15
Soms per month Total Domestic Export Difference
Agricultural income 7,055 6,356 8,480 2,124
***
Household income 15,332 15,019 15,969 950
Household consumption 9,313 9,438 9,059 -378
Asset index, mean is 100 100.0 104.0 91.9 -12.1
Source: LiK (2011)
The significant differences using t-tests are indicated by * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01.
16. 21/04/14 Footer
Method Idea Procedure
Regression on
covariates
Large set of
covariates
Linear regression
Propensity-score
(PS) matching
Pairing based on
similarities in PSs
• Estimate PSs
• Matching on estimated PSs
(Single-nearest-neighbor matching
with replacement on common-
support region)
• Matched sample: Linear
regression
Entropy
balancing
Re-weighting based
on moment
balance constraints
• Impose balance constraints
• Derive weights
• Weighted linear regression
Methodological Overview
16
iii ewy +++= βxi'τα
17. 21/04/14 Footer
Results: Welfare Effects of Export Participation
17
* p<0.1 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01
Increase in welfare if a
HH participates in
export
Mean
difference
Regression
on covariates
Propensity score
matching
Entropy
balancing
(main specification)
AG income 2,123.9*** 2,845.4*** 2,820.9*** 1,762.4**
R2
0.17 0.17 0.26
Income 949.9 1,588.0 1,426.4 368.6
R2
0.22 0.22 0.25
Consumption -378.4 -569.5 -579.0 -1,033.3
R2
0.22 0.22 0.32
Asset index, mean=100 -12.1 -2.0 -2.2 -8.0
R2
0.31 0.31 0.36
N
704 687 704
18. 21/04/14 Footer
Conclusion
Determinants of smallholder export participation
Positive: labor in agriculture, irrigated land, export products
Negative: minority ethnic groups, internal migrants, family
shocks, altitude
Welfare effects of smallholder export participation
Confirmed in a limited extent: significant only for AG income
No significant effects on household income, consumption, or
assets
The work to be continued using four waves of panel data
6
18
19. 21/04/14 Footer
Complemented with qualitative study
In depth interviews with 17 households from LiK sample in
three regions of Kyrgyzstan; October 2012
Insights on sales and export activities of smallholders
7
19
20. 21/04/14 Footer
Thanks for your attention!
For further information, please contact:
Damir Esenaliev: esenaliev@sipri.org
Isabel Teichmann: iteichmann@diw.de
20