Bob Bergman on Systems Thinking and Chronic Social Problems Understand why good intentions are not enough to solve chronic social problems and the application of systems thinking to understanding why homelessness persists in Maricopa County. While there will be a brief discussion on the complexity of social problems (Wicked Problems), this will not be a discussion on complexity theory, adaptive complex systems, autopoiesis, bifurcations, co-evolution, chaos and edge of chaos, emerging properties,far-from-equilibrium-states, power-law, self-organized criticality, sensitivity to initial conditions, etc. Rather this will be a discussion on the usefulness of applying systems thinking to chronic social and structural problems, with the hope that further “futures discussions” can take a similar approach. Bob Bergman is President at Southwest Management Technology, LLC. He has 45 years of experience in management, technology, strategic planning, and systems thinking. Bob has been a WFS member for many years as well.

1. AZ WFS PRESENTATION
SYSTEMS THINKING AND THE ARIZONA HOMELESS PROBLEM
Bob Bergman
rlbergma@gmail.com
480-241-4651

2. Agenda
• Quick intro to systems thinking
• Complex systems & wicked problems
• Homeless problem revisited as example of
systems thinking / system dynamics
• Example simulation for policy creation

3. Systems Thinking
Traditional analysis focuses on the individual pieces of
what is being studied. Systems thinking focuses on how
the things being studied interact with the other
constituents of the system.
Instead of isolating smaller
and smaller parts of the
system being studied, systems
thinking works by expanding
its view to consider larger and
larger numbers of interactions
as an issue is being studied.
Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by erwlas

4. Systems: Key Points
• Many of the interconnections in systems operate through the flow of
information.
• The least obvious part of the system, its function or purpose, is often the
most crucial determinate of the system’s behavior.
• System structure is the source of system behavior. System behavior
reveals itself as a series of events over time.

5. Systems
Function of a system is a product of the interaction
among the parts

6. Importance of understanding the
dynamics of the whole system
Falls at the rate of 1
tile per day

7. Importance of understanding the
dynamics of the whole system
Unintended Consequence or just bad understanding of the system?

8. Systems Thinking
“ Reductionism is the sin of modern life ….reducing things to their
component parts and thereby, too often, missing the meaning and the
message….” Charles Handy : 1932

9. Our Problem

10. Characteristics of Complex Non-Linear
Systems
– Tightly Coupled
“Everything influences everything else”
“You can’t just do one thing”
– Dynamic
Change occurs at many time scales
– Policy Resistant
Many obvious solutions to problems fail or actually worsen the
situation.
– Counterintuitive
Cause and effect are distant in time and space
– Exhibit Tradeoffs
Long term behavior is often different from short term behavior
System dynamics: is concerned with the behavior of a system over time

11. Social Problems are Wicked Problems
• Wicked problem is defined to describe a problem
that is difficult or impossible to solve because of
incomplete, contradictory, and changing
requirements
• Wicked Problems as defined by Rittel and Webber
have the following characteristics:
– The solution depends on how the problem is framed and
vice-versa (i.e., the problem definition depends on the
solution)
– Stakeholders have radically different world views and
different frames for understanding the problem.
– The constraints that the problem is subject to and the
resources needed to solve it change over time.

12. Wicked Problems & Systems Thinking
• The nonobvious interrelationships among elements
in a complex system often thwart people’s best
intentions to sustainably improve system
performance.
• The complex, nonlinear problems that most
foundations & gov’t organizations address can be
solved most effectively by thinking systemically
instead of linearly about these problems.

13. System Thinking vs Linear Thinking

14. Systems thinking creates a new language for
communicating about complexities and
interdependencies

15. Causal Loop Diagrams
• An approach to understanding a system,
qualitatively
thing 1 adds
to thing 2
thing 1 subtracts
from thing 2
sales adds to revenue
product sales subtracts from finished
goods inventory
resources interact with productivity to add to
finished goods inventory

16. Delay
• Thing 1 has a delayed positive influence over
thing 2 (system lag time)
• The implications of interaction often take time
• Seldom does anything happen instantaneously
• Systems deceive us because of delays

17. Reinforcing Loop Archetype
• Growth or decline of the state of the system
Positive feedback or reinforcing loop

18. Balancing Loop
• Attempts to bring two things
into agreement. Goal seeking.
 Regulates system behavior
 Opposes system change from set goal
 Regulate system to provide stability
Negative feedback or balancing loop

19. System Archetypes Con’t

20. Quick Fix Dilemma (Shifting the Burden)
• Traditional approaches cannot be used to solve Wicked
Problems. A more systems approach is necessary in order
to prevent side effects or unintended consequences.
• Examples of unintended consequences:
– Homeless shelters perpetuate homelessness
– Food aid leads to increased starvation
– “Get tough” prison sentences fail to reduce fear of violent crime

21. Homeless in the US through 2012

22. Current Approach For Homeless Problem
• Federal Level $Billions spent through HUD
– McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act (1987) provided federal
funding for homeless students, emergency relief provisions for
shelter, food, mobile health care, and transitional housing
– Assistance and Rapid Transition to Housing (HEARTH) Act of 2009 re-
authorized McKinney-Vento… changed some definitions and HUDs
role
• Maricopa county
– Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) is a Council of
Governments that represents 27 cities—coordinates grants from
HUD pertaining to homelessness
– 2014 homeless point in time count, 5,918 people had experienced
homelessness in Maricopa County, with 1,053 of them reported to
be sleeping on the streets and 4,865 people in shelters. Of the total
people counted, 1,819 were children.

23. Traditional Structure

24. Systems Approach
• Factors that increase the risk of becoming
homeless:.
• Individual risk factors
– a. Poverty, discrimination, and lack of
education
– b. Substance abuse, mental illness,
and domestic violence
– c. Lack of support for minors
– d. Absence of life management skills
and low underlying self-esteem
– e. Vulnerability to scams, slum lords,
and quick cash schemes
• Limited permanent, accessible, living
wage jobs
• Financial problems stemming from the
above, e.g. difficulties paying for medical
emergencies and child support –
essentials beyond rent and food
• Limited permanent, safe, affordable,
supportive housing.

25. Generalized Homeless Problem
Number of
Homeless People
Temporary
Shelters
Permanent
Housing
+
-
+
-
Visibility of
Homeless Problem
+
Pressure to make
changes
+
We need to help
people now syndrome

26. Homelessness System in AZ

27. Understanding the Dynamics of the
Systems for Policy Development
http://forio.com/simulate/rlbergma/