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Discovery = Hypothesis Testing


      What are Hypothesis?
      Where do Hypothesis come from?
      Why Test them?
      How do you test them?




MBA295-F   Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Customer Discovery: Step 1
    Customer          Customer               Customer         Company
    Discovery         Validation             Creation         Building




                Existing Market:             1 Month – 1 Year


           Resegmenting a Market:                6 Months – 3 Years



                    New Market:          1 Year – 3 Years



MBA295-F   Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Customer Discovery: Step 1

      Customer           Customer               Customer          Company
      Discovery          Validation             Creation          Building




       Existing : 1-6 Months


    Resegmenting: 3-12 Months



     New:       1-2 Years


MBA295-F    Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Customer Discovery: Step 1


          Customer          Customer               Customer         Company
          Discovery         Validation             Creation         Building




    Stop selling, start listening

    Test your hypotheses
         Two are fundamental: problem and product concept

    MBA295-F    Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Customer Discovery

           Customer      Phase 3                            Phase 4
           Discovery      Test                         Verify, Iterate &
                        Product                             Expand
                       Hypothesis

                                                                        To Validation



                                                             Phase 1
                         Phase 2                             Author
                          Test                             Hypothesis
                        Problem
                       Hypothesis




MBA295-F      Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Customer Discovery
                                              Hypotheses
 Product             Customer           Distribution         Demand          Market Type       Competitive
Hypothesis           & Problem           & Pricing           Creation        Hypothesis        Hypothesis
                     Hypothesis         Hypothesis          Hypothesis




                           Test “Problem” Hypothesis
       Friendly           “Problem”           Customer             Market
    First Contacts       Presentation       Understanding        Knowledge




                                                            Test “Product” Hypothesis
                                          First Reality        “Product”        Yet More             Second
                                             Check           Presentation       Customer           Reality Check
                                                                                 Visits
       Verify


      Verify the           Verify the     Verify the         Iterate or
       Product             Problem        Business              Exit
        MBA295-F         Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise
                                           Model                                     Spring 2009
Customer Discovery
                                       Hypotheses
 Product
Hypothesis               Inside the Building
                    Customer
                    & Problem
                    Hypothesis
                                       Distribution
                                        & Pricing
                                       Hypothesis
                                                            Demand
                                                            Creation
                                                           Hypothesis
                                                                           Market Type
                                                                           Hypothesis
                                                                                            Competitive
                                                                                            Hypothesis




                            Test “Problem”
      Friendly
   First Contacts
                              Hypothesis
                         “Problem”
                        Presentation
                                             Customer
                                           Understanding
                                                                 Market
                                                               Knowledge




                      Outside the Building
                            Test “Product” Hypothesis
                                         First Reality       “Product”       Yet More         Second
                                            Check           Presentation     Customer       Reality Check
   Verify                                                                     Visits




     Verify the           Verify the     Verify the         Iterate or
      Product             Problem        Business              Exit
       MBA295-F         Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise
                                          Model                                   Spring 2009
Phase 1: Author Hypothesis


 Phase 3
 Product
                         Phase 4
                       Iterate &
                                         One-time writing exercise
 Concept                Expand
 Testing                                 All other time spent in
                                          front of customers
                    Phase 1              Assumes you’re smart but
  Phase 2
   Test              Author               guessing
 Problem
Hypothesis         Hypothesis




  MBA295-F   Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Hypothesis
            Product
            Customer/Problem
            Distribution/Pricing
            Demand Creation
            Market Type
            Competition


 Product         Customer         Distribution      Demand           Market Type       Competitive
Hypothesis       & Problem         & Pricing        Creation         Hypothesis        Hypothesis
                 Hypothesis       Hypothesis       Hypothesis



    MBA295-F      Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise       Spring 2009
Product Hypotheses

     Features
     Benefits
     Product Delivery Schedule
     Intellectual Property
     Total Cost of Ownership
     Dependency Analysis




MBA295-F   Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Customer/Problem Hypotheses

      Types of Customers/Archetypes
      Magnitude of the problem
      Visionaries
      A Day in the Life of a customer
      Organizational impact
      ROI Justification
      Problem Recognition
      Minimum Feature Set


MBA295-F   Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Distribution/ Pricing Hypotheses

     Distribution Model
     Distribution Diagram
     Sales Cycle/Ramp
     Channel strategy
     Pricing (ASP, LTV)
     Customer Organization Map
     Demand Creation



MBA295-F   Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Demand Creation Hypotheses

   How do competitors create demand?
   How will you?
      Dave McClure’s AARGH model

   Who are influencers/recommendors?
   Key trade shows?
   Key trends?
   Start assembling advisory board




MBA295-F   Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Type of Market Hypotheses

   Positioning and Differentiation
       Existing Market
            The product is the basis of competition
       New Market
            Creating the market is the basis of competition
       Redefine Existing Market
            Resegment the existing market is the basis of
             competition




MBA295-F      Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009
Competition Hypotheses


   Who is out there?
   Why are they important?
   How do customers use them today?
   What don’t customers like about them?




MBA295-F   Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise   Spring 2009

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Customer Discovery (Concise)

  • 1. Discovery = Hypothesis Testing  What are Hypothesis?  Where do Hypothesis come from?  Why Test them?  How do you test them? MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 2. Customer Discovery: Step 1 Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Existing Market: 1 Month – 1 Year Resegmenting a Market: 6 Months – 3 Years New Market: 1 Year – 3 Years MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 3. Customer Discovery: Step 1 Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building Existing : 1-6 Months Resegmenting: 3-12 Months New: 1-2 Years MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 4. Customer Discovery: Step 1 Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building  Stop selling, start listening  Test your hypotheses  Two are fundamental: problem and product concept MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 5. Customer Discovery Customer Phase 3 Phase 4 Discovery Test Verify, Iterate & Product Expand Hypothesis To Validation Phase 1 Phase 2 Author Test Hypothesis Problem Hypothesis MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 6. Customer Discovery Hypotheses Product Customer Distribution Demand Market Type Competitive Hypothesis & Problem & Pricing Creation Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Test “Problem” Hypothesis Friendly “Problem” Customer Market First Contacts Presentation Understanding Knowledge Test “Product” Hypothesis First Reality “Product” Yet More Second Check Presentation Customer Reality Check Visits Verify Verify the Verify the Verify the Iterate or Product Problem Business Exit MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Model Spring 2009
  • 7. Customer Discovery Hypotheses Product Hypothesis Inside the Building Customer & Problem Hypothesis Distribution & Pricing Hypothesis Demand Creation Hypothesis Market Type Hypothesis Competitive Hypothesis Test “Problem” Friendly First Contacts Hypothesis “Problem” Presentation Customer Understanding Market Knowledge Outside the Building Test “Product” Hypothesis First Reality “Product” Yet More Second Check Presentation Customer Reality Check Verify Visits Verify the Verify the Verify the Iterate or Product Problem Business Exit MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Model Spring 2009
  • 8. Phase 1: Author Hypothesis Phase 3 Product Phase 4 Iterate &  One-time writing exercise Concept Expand Testing  All other time spent in front of customers Phase 1  Assumes you’re smart but Phase 2 Test Author guessing Problem Hypothesis Hypothesis MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 9. Hypothesis  Product  Customer/Problem  Distribution/Pricing  Demand Creation  Market Type  Competition Product Customer Distribution Demand Market Type Competitive Hypothesis & Problem & Pricing Creation Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 10. Product Hypotheses  Features  Benefits  Product Delivery Schedule  Intellectual Property  Total Cost of Ownership  Dependency Analysis MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 11. Customer/Problem Hypotheses  Types of Customers/Archetypes  Magnitude of the problem  Visionaries  A Day in the Life of a customer  Organizational impact  ROI Justification  Problem Recognition  Minimum Feature Set MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 12. Distribution/ Pricing Hypotheses  Distribution Model  Distribution Diagram  Sales Cycle/Ramp  Channel strategy  Pricing (ASP, LTV)  Customer Organization Map  Demand Creation MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 13. Demand Creation Hypotheses  How do competitors create demand?  How will you?  Dave McClure’s AARGH model  Who are influencers/recommendors?  Key trade shows?  Key trends?  Start assembling advisory board MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 14. Type of Market Hypotheses  Positioning and Differentiation  Existing Market  The product is the basis of competition  New Market  Creating the market is the basis of competition  Redefine Existing Market  Resegment the existing market is the basis of competition MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009
  • 15. Competition Hypotheses  Who is out there?  Why are they important?  How do customers use them today?  What don’t customers like about them? MBA295-F Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Spring 2009