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Space Evaders Lessons Learned H4Dip Stanford 2016


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agile, mission model, corporate innovation, customer development, h4d, h4dip, hacking for diplomacy, lean, lean launchpad, lean startup, stanford, steve blank, state department

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Space Evaders Lessons Learned H4Dip Stanford 2016

  1. Project “Steer Clear” 102 Total Interviews Challenge: How can we stop space collisions from making space unusable? Team Space Evaders Our plan: New method to evaluate debris creation. Sponsor: Amber Charlesworth, Office of Space and Advanced Technology
  2. Kate Boudreau Junior, Biomedical Computation Background: Bioinformatic research Expertise: Biocomputation Tyler Dammann Junior, Computer Science Background: Software, computer science Expertise: Technology, data Dave Gabler Masters, Business/ Public Policy Background: Air Force, business Expertise: Strategy, aerospace, management Matthew Kaseman Freshman, Aerospace Engineering Background: Army, gov’t contracting Expertise: Engineering implementation Team Space Evaders
  3. Increasing # of satellites Space debris threatens critical infrastructure (GPS, communications, etc) The Challenge Increasing collisions More debris
  4. Interviewed over 100 stakeholders Mapped the status quo Built simple prototypes to test our ideas Lean methodology
  5. First industry process map Focused on data flow in the collision avoidance system
  6. The Path to Collisions Tracking Modeling Warnings Response “This will be an eye-opener to many people!” - Amber, State Department
  7. Original Hypotheses - Tracking 1) Collision warnings based on estimates only GPS position Observed position We can improve avoidance capability through: - Communication - Data Sharing 2) Satellites know precisely where they are Solution!
  8. We tested many ideas Worldwide Operator phone book GPS data-sharing Define debris size/shape (helps prediction accuracy) Small satellite ID hardware
  9. Answer #1: This is a small part of the problem
  10. Answer #2: Satellite operator decision matrix Warning? Maneuver? < 1% chanceY N N Y < .01% chance < .01% chance < 1% chance but now YOU caused it < 1% chance “My chances are no better if I move, so why would I assume the responsibility?” - Commercial Satellite operator
  11. Data sharing isn’t the problem - technical uncertainty makes the whole process unreliable The underlying problem? Collision warnings are only “in the ballpark” Operators need MUCH more detail
  12. “This insight will frame our approach to this problem and has given us a new way forward with the international community” - Deputy Assistant Secretary
  13. The Path to Collisions Tracking Modeling Warnings Response Mission Planning
  14. Too much decentralized, limited accountability decision-making Space as a Tragedy of the Commons Cost/schedule limitations can prevent debris mitigation efforts Vague debris mitigation standards = significant design leeway
  15. Fix the Commons Problem Make choices and consequences transparent and accountable Debris Responsibility Score
  16. Final MVP: Debris Responsibility Score Time in Space Size of Object Congestion of Orbit Risk of On-Orbit BreakupPlanned Mission Debris
  17. “If you can show me it works, I would use it.” -U.S. Government Regulator “This needs to be presented at the next satellite operators conference” -International satellite operator “I’ve wanted to do this myself for years!” -Leading industry expert/journalist
  18. Iteration/ peer review Best Practice Community Standard Deployment: Iteration & Acceptance
  19. Deployment: Expected Use Cases NGO monitors tradable credits international policy
  20. Summary Instead of avoiding as many debris items as operators choose to put in space... ...Our rating will work to prevent new debris from getting there at all