OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023: Enabling Transitions in Times of Disruption. Find out more and access the publication at https://www.oecd.org/sti/science-technology-innovation-outlook/

1. STI policies for transitions in
times of disruption
Director
OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation
Andrew Wyckoff

2. 1. Disruptive shocks and crises and a
greater emphasis on the resilience
function of STI
2. Climate change and the need for
greater directionality in STI policy and
international cooperation
3. Strategic competition and the growing
securitisation of STI policy
2
Three key drivers of change

3. 1. Disruptive shocks and crises and a greater
emphasis on the resilience function of STI

4. Source: OECD, Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023, forthcoming, calculations based on OECD Main
Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI) Database, March 2022. http://oe.cd/msti
A very different crisis: COVID-19 disruption – the first
recession without falling R&D expenditures in OECD area
R&D in government
pushing up
Business R&D
slowdown
Sustained R&D in
higher education

5. Govt R&D spending rose sharply to meet the health
crisis
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Energy and Environment Health and medical sciences Total Government R&D budgets
Constant price PPP USD, Index 2018=100
Government R&D budget trends, 2016-21
Source: OECD R&D statistics, September 2022.

6. Business R&D trends show variable growth by sector
Source: OECD, Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023, forthcoming, calculations based on OECD Short-term
Financial Tracker of Business R&D (SwiFTBeRD) dashboard, Beta version, 7 December 2022, https://oecd-
main.shinyapps.io/swiftberd/ (accessed 8 February 2023).
Year-on-year real R&D growth in the OECD
SwiFTBeRD panel industry groups

7. 7
Research and innovation make societies more
resilient
What’s needed:
1. long-term investments in R&D, skills, and
infrastructures
2. nurture strong relationships in ‘normal times’ and
mobilise them in crisis
3. strengthen strategic intelligence to anticipate
emerging risks

8. 2. Climate neutrality requires massive
technological change
8

9. 50% of emissions reductions come from
technologies that are not yet in the market . . .

10. 10
Note: Patent data refer to families of patent applications filed under the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT), by earliest filing date. Trademark
filings are from the European Patent Office, the United States Patent and Trademark Office and the Japan Patent Office.
Source: OECD, STI Micro-data Lab: Intellectual Property Database, http://oe.cd/ipstats, February 2023.
… but business’ efforts focus on deployment of
existing technologies …
low-carbon patenting efforts have declined recently
trademark filings in climate-related goods and services are on the rise

11. 11
… and low carbon R&D and demonstration is not
sufficient
Note: The “Others” category includes Carbon capture and storage, Hydrogen and fuel cells, Other power and storage technologies, and Other cross-
cutting technologies and research. See https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/energy-technology-rd-and-d-budget-database-2 .
Source: IEA Energy Technology RD&D Budgets database, December 2022.
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Energy efficiency Renewables Nuclear Other
%
Low-carbon public RD&D expenditures in GDP across
IEA countries (% of GDP), 1974-2020

12. 12

13. 13
Many see the need for moon-shot types of programmes

14. 14
Setting targets implies reorienting policy portfolios, for
example, in the tools used to support business R&D
Shift in government policy support mix for business R&D, 2000-2020
Government funding of R&D in the OECD area, indexed values for key figures normalised by GDP, 2007=1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Direct funding BERD Government Tax Relief for R&D
Government Budget Allocations for R&D Business Expenditure on R&D
2007=100
Source: OECD, Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023, forthcoming, calculations based on OECD R&D Tax Incentives Database, http://oe.cd/rdtax, April 2022.

15. 3. Another challenge for co-operation in
combating global challenges is the
growing calls and policies on strategic
competition
15

16. 1. Rising competition in critical technologies
2. Diverging values and interests
3. Increasingly vulnerable tech supply chains and
interdependencies
16
China’s growing ascendancy raises three main
areas of concern for liberal market economies

17. The rise of China: R&D investments
China
EU(27)
Japan
Korea
United States
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
China EU(27) Japan Korea United States
USD PPP, billion constant prices
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GERD), selected
economies, 2000-21
USD Billion in constant PPP prices
Source: OECD, Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023, forthcoming, calculations based on OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators
Database, February 2023, http://oe.cd/msti.

18. The rise of China: quantity and top-cited scientific
publications
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
China
Thousand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
EU (27)
Thousand Thousand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
USA
Thousand
Thousand Thousand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
China
Volume - Number of scientific publications (left hand axis)
Quality - Number of 10% top-cited scientific publications (right hand axis)
Source: OECD, Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023, forthcoming, calculations based on Scopus Custom Data, Elsevier, Version
6.2022, September 2022.

19. Interdependencies: Trade in high R&D-intensive
sectors
2000 2021
R&D-intensive intermediate goods
Import flows, in USD current prices, selected economies
2000 2021
Source: OECD, Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023, calculations based on OECD (2022), "STAN Bilateral trade database by industry and end-use
category, ISIC Rev. 4", STAN: OECD Structural Analysis Statistics (database), https://doi.org/10.1787/data-00691-en, October 2022.

20. Governments are strengthening technological
strategic autonomy

21. Interdependencies: research collaboration
Note: Whole counts of internationally co-authored documents; Source: OECD, Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023, forthcoming, calculations
based on Scopus Custom Data, Elsevier, Version 5.2021.
Bilateral collaboration intensity trends in
scientific publications, 1996-2021

22. 22
STI policies in times of strategic competition
1. These policies will sacrifice some of the gains from specialisation,
economies of scale and the diffusion of information and know-how.
2. These policies could undermine future co-operation on global
grand challenges.
3. A major test for multilateralism will be to reconcile growing strategic
competition with the need to address global challenges like climate
change.
4. Countries should adopt a targeted, risk management-based
approach to strategic autonomy that is informed by regular
assessments of threats, risks and opportunities on a case-by-case
basis.

23. To conclude, countries should prioritise sustainability
transitions and adapt their STI policies to meet this challenge
• Policy portfolios should embody greater targeting and
promote innovation and agility through more widespread
policy experimentation. They also need to better bridge
policy silos
• There is tremendous scope for international exchange
and mutual learning on all of these efforts, as well as for
international collaboration, where organisations like the EU
and the OECD should have important roles to play

24. OECD Science, technology And Innovation OUTLOOK 2023
Enabling transitions in times of disruption

25. Thank you!
▪ Main contacts
Michael KEENAN - Michael.KEENAN@oecd.org
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▪ Media contacts:
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