A slide deck for the CTE (Career Technical Education) Conference at College of Southern Idaho in Twin Falls.

1. Labor Market Projections for Idaho
Industries and Occupations: 2014 – 2024

2. Background: Our Projections Program
• 10-year Projections
• Industries and Occupations
• STEM Occupations
• Educational Attainment
• Hot Jobs

3. Projections Are:
• Created with US DOL’s Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Created every 2 years
• A count of jobs, not people
• A best guess at the future assuming a “business as usual”
approach
• Demand Side, NOT Supply Side

4. Projections DO NOT:
• Factor in technological change or innovation
• Include policy decisions (eg. new laws or policies)
• Include economic bubbles, crises, or even business cycles
• PREDICT THE FUTURE

5. Total Employment
Projected Values
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
[CELLRAN
GE]
[CELLRAN
GE]
0
250
500
750
1000
2014 2024
Thousands
Idaho
+1.8% Growth
[CELLRAN
GE]
[CELLRAN
GE]
0
50
100
150
200
2014 2024
Millions
United States
+0.6% Growth

6. Industry Projections
2014 - 2024

7. Regional Job Growth: 2014 – 2024
2014 Employment and Projected 2024 Employment in thousands
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
50
71
97
98
98
361
44
61
78
83
82
289
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
North Central
Southeastern
Northern
South Central
Eastern
Southwestern +2.2% Growth
+2.2% Growth
+1.8% Growth
+1.7% Growth
+1.2% Growth
+1.1% Growth

8. Annual Industry Job Growth: 2014 – 2024
Projected Growth Rates for Service and Goods Producing Sectors
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.9%
2.5%
2.3%
2.0%
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
-0.2%
Other Services
Construction
Leisure/Hospitality
Health Care/Social Assistance
Financial Activities
Professional/Business Srvcs
Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Retail Trade
Educational Services
Public Administration
Wholesale Trade
Transportation/Warehousing
Information
Manufacturing
Mining

9. Idaho Industry Job Growth: 2014 – 2024
2014 Employment and Projected Growth
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
[CELLRANGE]
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88,400
65,600
77,900
79,800
33,800
56500
53,900
15,891
28,000
59,800
23,500
28,700
20,200
Health Care/Social Assistance
Leisure/Hospitality
Professional/Business Srvcs
Retail Trade
Construction
Educational Services
Public Administration
Other Services
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Wholesale Trade
Transportation/Warehousing
Information
Utilities

10. Annual Industry Job Growth: 2014-2024
Projected Growth Rates South Central Idaho
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.1%
2.6%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.1%
1.1%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
Construction
Other Services
Professional/Business Srvcs
Financial Activities
Public Administration
Manufacturing
Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Wholesale Trade
Health Care/Social Assistance
Educational Services
Retail Trade
Leisure/Hospitality
Mining
Transportation/Warehousing
Information

11. SC Idaho Industry Job Growth: 2014 – 2024
2014 Employment and Projected Growth
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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971
4,169
3,432
2,511
2,176
6418
8,383
9,368
5,087
3,863
9,488
9,231
9,836
8,133
Information
Transportation/Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Financial Activities
Other Services
Educational Services
Leisure/Hospitality
Retail Trade
Public Administration
Construction
Health Care/Social Assistance
Manufacturing
Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Professional/Business Srvcs

12. Manufacturing in Idaho
Change in Payroll and Employment 2009-2014
Source: American Survey of Manufacturers
35%
1%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

13. Industry Summary:
In Idaho, by 2024:
• 138,000 new jobs are expected: an increase of 19.8% over 2014, or 1.8% annually.
• Other Services is expected to grow at 3.9% annually, the fastest rate of any industry.
• Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to add the most jobs of any industry –
19,500 – and grow by 2%, the 4th fastest among all industries.
• Manufacturing is projected to add 5,800 jobs and grow by 0.9% – 1.2 percentage
points – and in the opposite direction of – the nation.

14. Industry Summary:
In South Central Idaho, by 2024:
• 15,500 new jobs are expected: an increase of 18.7% over 2014.
• Construction is expected to grow at 3.1% annually, the fastest rate of any industry—
growing one and a half times faster than the nation.
• Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to add the fourth most jobs of any
industry – 1,400 – and grow by 1.6% annually.
• Manufacturing is projected to add 1,500 jobs and grow by 1.5%, three times faster
than – and in the opposite direction of – the nation.

15. Occupations
2014 - 2024

16. Occupations in Idaho: 2014 – 2024
Projected Annual Growth Rates
3.1%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
Personal Care/Service
Computer/Math
Life/Physical/Social Science
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Construction/Extraction
Business/Financial Ops
Legal
Community/Social Service
Food Preparation/Serving
Management
Healthcare Support
Architecture/Engineering
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Education/Training/Library
Sales and Related
Transportation/Material Moving
Farming/Fishing/Forestry
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Protective Service
Office/Admin Support
Production
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

17. Occupations in Idaho: 2014 – 2024
Current Employment and Projected Growth
[CELLRANGE]
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103,053
55,969
54,542
68,196
36,414
23,607
43,546
39,465
35,377
25,857
28,831
42,452
14,017
18,170
25,916
12,516
17,504
10,078
10,315
11,935
12,994
Office/Admin Support
Food Preparation/Serving
Management
Sales and Related
Construction/Extraction
Personal Care/Service
Transportation/Material Moving
Education/Training/Library
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Business/Financial Ops
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Production
Computer/Math
Healthcare Support
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Community/Social Service
Farming/Fishing/Forestry
Life/Physical/Social Science
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Architecture/Engineering
Protective Service
Legal Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. 0.73
0.74
0.77
0.81
0.94
0.94
0.97
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.02
1.06
1.10
1.11
1.29
1.34
1.85
2.57
0.53 1.03 1.53 2.03 2.53 3.03
Computer/Math
Business/Financial Ops
Legal
Protective Service
Transportation/Material Moving
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Food Preparation/Serving
Sales and Related
Healthcare Support
Production
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Personal Care/Service
Office/Admin Support
Education/Training/Library
Architecture/Engineering
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Management
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Construction/Extraction
Community/Social Service
Life/Physical/Social Science
Farming/Fishing/Forestry
Location Quotient
Concentration in Idaho: 2015
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

19. Occupations in Idaho: 2014 – 2024
Projected Total Openings Due to Growth and Replacements
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Office/Admin Support
Food Preparation/Serving
Sales and Related
Management
Transportation/Material Moving
Education/Training/Library
Production
Construction/Extraction
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Personal Care/Service
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Business/Financial Ops
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Healthcare Support
Farming/Fishing/Forestry
Computer/Math
Life/Physical/Social Science
Community/Social Service
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Architecture/Engineering
Protective Service
Legal
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. Occupation Summary:
In Idaho, by 2024:
• Personal Care/Service Occupations are expected to grow most rapidly at 3.1%.
• Computer/Math Occupations and Life, Physical and Social Science Occupations are
expected to grow at or above 2.5% annually.
• Despite a slower rate of growth, Health Care Occupations are expected to add
11,400 jobs over 10 years.
• Despite it’s slower than average growth rate, Production Occupations should add
over 5,000 new jobs over 10 years.
• The majority of Production Occupation job openings will be related to turnover.

21. STEM Occupations
2014 - 2024
Science Technology Engineering Mathematics

22. STEM Occupations 2014 – 2024
Projected Growth Rates for STEM and Non-STEM Occupations
23.1%
19.4%
STEM
Non-STEM
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

23. STEM Occupations: 2014 – 2024
Projected Openings from Growth and Replacements
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
+10,295
+7,698
Science/Engineering/Math/IT
Health
Social Science
Architecture
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

24. Total Employment
Projected Values
80,019
98,528
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2014 2024
STEM
615,248
734,820
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
2014 2024
Non-STEM
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
+2.1% Growth +1.8% Growth

25. Total STEM: 2004-2014 and 2014-2024
STEM Science, Engineering, Math, IT, Architecture, Social Science and Health
14.3% 13.6%
US Idaho
2004 - 2014 History
12.6%
23.1%
US Idaho
2014 - 2024 Projection
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

26. STEM Tech: 2004-2014 and 2014-2024
STEM Science, Engineering, Math, IT
8.8%
26.0%
US Idaho
2014 - 2024 Projection
11.3%
0.4%
US Idaho
2004 - 2014 History
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

27. Educational Attainment
2014 - 2024

28. Workforce Education
Projected Educational Attainment in 2024
[CELLRANGE]
11%
[CELLRANGE]
28%
[CELLRANGE]
23%
[CELLRANGE]
9%
[CELLRANGE]
19%
[CELLRANGE]
7% [CELLRANGE]
3%
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the American Community Survey
By 2024…
• 61% of jobs will demand a
greater than high school
education.
• 29% are projected to demand a
bachelor’s degree or higher.
• 39% are projected to demand a
high school diploma or less.

29. Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the American Community Survey

30. Why Education?
National Unemployment Rate by Degree Attainment:
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

31. Idaho’s Hot Jobs
Occupational Projections from 2014 to 2024
Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Shift Occupation Title
2024
Employment
Annual
Openings
Percent
Change
2014
Median
Wage
Typical Entry
Level
Education
1 ↑3 Software Developers 6,969 259 36.8% $36.35 Bachelor’s
2 ↑74 Lawyers 3,315 109 27.2% $37.04 Doctoral
3 ↑23 Management Analysts 2,959 106 34.4% $29.26 Bachelor’s
4 ↑22 Accountants and Auditors 5,385 229 27.5% $29.33 Bachelor’s
5 ↑19 Civil Engineers 2,133 96 28.3% $35.31 Bachelor’s
6 ↑25 Personal Financial Advisors 1,141 53 39.3% $33.82 Bachelor’s
7 ↑40 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 3,229 99 26.8% $30.03 Bachelor’s
8 ↓5 Physical Therapists 1,347 59 29.8% $37.64 Doctoral
9 ↑10 Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary 1,209 45 30.4% $39.33 Doctoral
10 ↓1 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 1,949 71 38.3% $24.76 Bachelor’s

32. Idaho’s Hot Jobs
Occupational Projections from 2014 to 2024
Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Shift Occupation Title
2024
Employment
Annual
Openings
Percent
Change
2014
Median
Wage
Typical Entry
Level Education
11 ↓9 Registered Nurses 14,357 242 20.3% $29.30 Bachelor’s
12 ↓2 Nurse Practitioners 752 18 32.4% $44.52 Master’s
13 ↓7 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2040 50 32.3% $23.36 High School
14 ↑124 Veterinarians 745 18 31.4% $39.45 Doctoral
15 ↓10 Physician Assistants 760 17 28.6% $45.17 Master’s
16 ↑207 Public Relations Specialists 805 22 37.8% $28.33 Bachelor’s
17 ↑80 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 1,857 36 24.3% $29.28 Bachelor’s
18 ↑315 Conservation Scientists 519 18 54.9% $28.82 Bachelor’s
19 ↑21 Operations Research Analysts 572 18 44.1% $29.90 Bachelor’s
20 ↑73 Web Developers 1,466 50 52.1% $18.31 Associates

33. Idaho’sHotJobs–AssociatesDegreeorLower
Occupational Projections from 2014 to 2024
Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Shift Occupation Title
2024
Employment
Annual
Openings
Percent
Change
2014 Median
Wage
Typical Entry
Level
Education
13 ↓7 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2,040 90 32.3% $23.36 High school
16 *
First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and
Extraction Workers
3,630 94 24.4% $24.88 High school
21 ↑73 Web Developers 1,466 62 52.1% $18.31 Associate's
22 ↑29 Computer User Support Specialists 3,164 103 29.1% $19.16 Some college
23 ↓16 Electricians 4,275 136 24.2% $22.12 High school
25 ↓5 Carpenters 7,808 245 28.9% $16.78 High school
29 ↑142 Insurance Sales Agents 2,007 84 26.7% $21.29 High school
32 ↑50 First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers 1,722 46 21.2% $29.44 High school
33 ↑134 Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators 1,382 54 23.1% $29.10 High school
35 ↑93
Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine
Specialists
1,968 69 27.9% $18.90 High school

34. Idaho’sHotJobs–AssociatesDegreeorLower
Occupational Projections from 2014 to 2024
Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Shift Occupation Title
Typical Entry
Level Education
Pct. With
HS
Pct. With Some
College
Pct. With
Associates
Pct. With
Bachelors
13 ↓7 Industrial Machinery Mechanics High school 40.9% 28.5% 13.2% 5.4%
16 *
First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and
Extraction Workers
High school 42.0% 25.8% 7.0% 9.6%
21 ↑73 Web Developers Associate's 4.3% 17.3% 9.9% 52.3%
22 ↑29 Computer User Support Specialists Some college 11.1% 28.0% 17.2% 34.2%
23 ↓16 Electricians High school 37.3% 33.0% 14.3% 6.6%
25 ↓5 Carpenters High school 43.1% 20.7% 5.2% 5.5%
29 ↑142 Insurance Sales Agents High school 15.3% 26.3% 9.3% 40.1%
32 ↑50 First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers High school 21.5% 23.9% 8.3% 31.2%
33 ↑134 Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators High school 16.5% 25.1% 9.5% 39.8%
35 ↑93
Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine
Specialists
High school 47.2% 24.6% 10.2% 3.3%

35. Idaho’s Most Numerous Jobs
Occupational Projections from 2014 to 2024
Rank Occupation Title
2024
Employment
Annual
Openings
Percent
Change
2014
Median
Wage
Location
Quotient
1 Retail Salespersons 26,814 447 19.9% $10.68 1.08
2 Personal Care Aides 12,421 361 40.1% $9.44 1.34
3 Food Preparation and Serving Workers 14,538 346 31.2% $8.65 0.74
4 Customer Service Representatives 19,646 338 20.8% $12.84 1.36
5 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 16,322 277 20.4% $17.70 1.66
6 Registered Nurses 14,357 242 20.3% $29.30 0.95
7 Waiters and Waitresses 13,145 241 22.5% $8.83 0.95
8 Office Clerks 17,409 233 15.5% $13.46 1.11
9 Restaurant Cooks 7,908 212 36.6% $10.42 1.11
10 Cashiers 16,825 182 12.1% $9.15 0.95
Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

36. Our Challenge: Labor Supply
Projected Growth in Jobs and Workforce 2014 – 2024
Source: Idaho Department of Labor Long Term Industry Projections and Population Forecast
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Thousands
138,000
89,000
49,000

37. Thank You!
Questions?
Ethan Mansfield, Regional Economist, SW Idaho
• Ethan.mansfield@labor.Idaho.gov