Economic Development in Lemhi County

1. Where we are now and how we get to where we want to be?
Ethan Mansfield
SW Idaho Regional Economist
Idaho Department of Labor
Economic Development in
Lemhi County

2. Outline
• What Does Lemhi County Look like now?
• What is it projected to look like in the future?
• What are the Economic Development policy changes going forward
that might affect the county’s position in the future?

3. Source: EMSI
11.1
5.8
9.7
3.7
9.6
5.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unemployment Rates
Lemhi County, Idaho and United States
2007-2015
Lemhi Idaho US

4. Jobs and Wages
• Population = 7,735
• Idaho = 1,654,930
• Total Jobs = 2,790
• Idaho = 765,509
• Average Wage per Job = $28,979
• Idaho = $36,781
• 2010-2016 Job Growth = -130
• Idaho = 107,139
• 2010-2015 Percent Job Growth = -4%
• Idaho = 14%

5. Description 2016 Jobs
2010 - 2016
Change
2010 - 2016 %
Change
Current Wages,
Salaries, &
Proprietor
Earnings
Nat'l Growth
Effect
Ind. Mix Effect
Competitive
Effect
2016 Location
Quotient
Government (incl. Public Ed) 809 (45) (5%) $39,467 83 (94) (35) 1.89
Retail Trade 360 35 11% $24,936 32 (3) 6 1.24
Accommodation and Food Services 269 16 6% $13,401 25 22 (31) 1.14
Health Care and Social Assistance 266 (24) (8%) $22,058 28 16 (68) 0.76
Construction 210 (51) (20%) $36,950 26 10 (87) 1.39
Other Services (except Public
Administration)
190 19 11% $15,509 17 (14) 17 1.43
Manufacturing 127 28 28% $28,145 10 (3) 22 0.58
Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services
109 (30) (22%) $45,057 14 10 (54) 0.61
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 85 14 20% $19,796 7 4 3 1.81
Administrative and Support and
Waste Management and Remediation
Services
81 (41) (34%) $22,275 12 12 (65) 0.46
Crop and Animal Production 79 16 25% $23,004 6 (4) 13 2.34
Transportation and Warehousing 52 2 4% $25,568 5 3 (6) 0.56
Finance and Insurance 37 (23) (38%) $30,119 6 (3) (26) 0.35
Wholesale Trade 27 (15) (36%) $46,654 4 (1) (18) 0.25
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 25 (14) (36%) $19,230 4 (1) (17) 0.55
Information 25 (8) (24%) $20,723 3 (2) (9) 0.48
Private Educational Services 18 2 13% $18,266 2 0 (0) 0.25
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas
Extraction
<10 Insf. Data Insf. Data Insf. Data 1 (1) (7) 0.62
Utilities <10 Insf. Data Insf. Data Insf. Data 0 (0) 5 0.76
Management of Companies and
Enterprises
<10 Insf. Data Insf. Data Insf. Data 2 2 (14) 0.12

8. -2.6
4.3
3.3
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Lemhi County, Idaho
Idaho
UNITED STATES
Percent Population Change
2010-2014

9. 27.3
14.3 14.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Lemhi County, Idaho Idaho UNITED STATES
Percent over 65 years old
2014

10. 23.0%
15.3%
11.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Lemhi County, Idaho Idaho UNITED STATES
Change in Percent 65 and Older
2010-2014

11. $1,006
$1,212
$1,522
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Lemhi County, Idaho Idaho UNITED STATES
Median Monthly Costs
Housing Units with a Mortgage

12. $541
$738
$920
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
Lemhi County, Idaho Idaho UNITED STATES
Median Monthly Rent
2014

13. 0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2025 Projected Job Growth* Ages 16-64 Workforce Growth**
Workforce Gap
115,000*
52,000**
63,000
* 2015-2025 Extrapolated from 2012-2022, 1.5% annualized long term projection growth, Idaho Department of Labor, November 2015
** Workforce growth extrapolated from 1.6% annualized population growth, Idaho Department of Labor, November 2015

14. -550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2025 Projected Job Growth* Ages 16-64 Workforce Growth**
Workforce Gap
155*
-528**
683

15. -7%
-13%
16%
-7%
7%
37%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0-14 15-64 65+
Projected Growth By Age Group
2015- 2025
Lemhi County Idaho

16. NAICS Description
2015 - 2025
Change
2015 - 2025 %
Change
81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 65 35%
44 Retail Trade 54 16%
62 Health Care and Social Assistance 50 20%
54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 29 27%
72 Accommodation and Food Services 12 5%
71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 10 15%
11 Crop and Animal Production 5 6%
42 Wholesale Trade 4 15%
31 Manufacturing 3 3%
61 Private Educational Services 3 17%
56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1 1%
48 Transportation and Warehousing 0 0%
53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 0 0%
51 Information (4) (16%)
52 Finance and Insurance (18) (46%)
90 Government (incl. Public Ed) (31) (4%)
23 Construction (34) (16%)
21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Insf. Data Insf. Data
22 Utilities Insf. Data Insf. Data
55 Management of Companies and Enterprises Insf. Data Insf. Data
155 6%TOTAL

17. What Factors Contribute to Unequal
Economic Development across Space?
• Natural Amenities
• Cultural Amenities
• Human Capital (Workforce)
• Infrastructure
• Jobs follow people vs. people follow jobs?
• More support for jobs follow people in rural areas
• Tax Policy?

18. How Can we Help?
• Attract and Retain Talented Workers (or any workers)
• Choose Idaho campaign
• Local Policy that encourages workers to stay and attracts new ones (i.e. what
does your target audience want in a community?)
• Create Talent Pipelines within the community
• Amenities Matter to Migration
• What does a new generation look for?
• Infrastructure is important
• Physical Infrastructure
• Roads, Railways, Air Service
• Virtual Infrastructure
• Broadband

19. Thank You!
• Ethan Mansfield
• ethan.mansfield@labor.Idaho.gov
• Sources: Economic Modeling Specialists International; US Census
Bureau, County Quickfacts; Idaho Department of Labor, Population
Projections.