This document summarizes research on improving crop-livestock farming systems in semi-arid southern Africa. Three key points: 1) Innovation platforms have helped farmers in Marara, Mozambique increase food security and resilience, but need further strengthening to promote learning and realize their full potential. 2) Research is using integrated modeling of climate impacts on crops and livestock to assess benefits of adaptation options for smallholder farms in Zimbabwe under different climate scenarios. This indicates most farmers will lose from climate change without adaptation. 3) Plans for 2016 include strengthening innovation platform facilitation and monitoring, publishing research results, and developing capacity and materials for scaling integrated market-oriented mixed farming systems.

1. Crop livestock farming systems research
in semi-arid southern Africa II
Eastern And Southern Africa Planning meeting, 26-27 April 2016
at Meickles Hotel, Harare, Zimbabwe
Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Andre van Rooyen,
Claudio Sixpence, Thabani Dube, Max Wengawenga

2. Nudging sustainability transitions
using open innovation platforms
and market oriented development
MOREP
Resilient and Profitable
Farming in Central
Mozambique
• Despite expanding local and regional markets for
crop and livestock products, most farmers in
Marara, Tete, do not make a profit.
• Farmers are unable to invest in low cost biomass
and protein that would increase food security and
resilience despite high risk environment.
• Innovation platforms help, but still need further
strengthening to promote learning and all levels,
and to realise their full potential to generate
solutions.

3. Success = F (x M x LISF)
Functional innovation platforms that identify opportunities (‘quick wins’)
along pathways towards inclusive market access (single loop learning);
Tools for diagnosing, nudging and monitoring multi-level learning that
enhances innovation (double loop);
Define the grammar of entire socio-ecological systems (e.g. structure,
culture, practices) and assess changes to that grammar as a result of the
innovation platform approach (triple loop);
Learning and self-organization through IPs
towards inclusive market access

4. Pathways to inclusive market access

5. Solutions for supporting market oriented
development pathways
Livestock oriented market
development in Marara
+ Legalized association with land
tenure security
+ Better organized farmers and
stronger links with partners
+ Improved market infrastructure
and organization
+ Improved crop and livestock
production
Collective marketing of
common beans in Manica
+ Farmers able to attract new
partners and investments
+ Collective common beans sales
at large scales
+ Increased profits from higher
production and improved
marketing
Social capital
Integration of objectives
and actors at large scale
creating unity and
ownership
Self-organization and
representation opening
new doors for new
partnerships and
investments
Process learning for
dealing with new
opportunities and barriers
to development

7. Co-designing smallholder farming futures to
increase resilience in the face of changing climate
Maize-cattle based crop-livestock systems in
Nkayi district
- Low crop productivity; e.g. 0.7 t/ha for maize, 0.5
t/ha for sorghum
- Low livestock productivity; e.g. mortality rates 15%;
< 1.5 l/cow/day
- High poverty levels; 76% poor and 22% extremely
poor
- Food self-sufficiency: 3-10 months
 High vulnerability, heterogeneity
Extremely
poor (43%)
Poor
(38%)
Non-poor
(19%)
Cultivated
land (ha)
1.4 2.0 2.7
Cattle (TLU) 0 5.4 13.9
Extremely poor Poor Non-poor

8. Research questions
Q1: What is the sensitivity of current agricultural production systems to climate change?
Q2: What are benefits of interventions in current agricultural systems?
Q3: What will be the impact of climate change on future agricultural production systems?
Q4: What are the benefits of climate change adaptation options?
Multi-modeling for assessing the impacts of
climate change and adaptation options
Crop yield
Milk production
Net income
Food self-sufficiency

9. Multi-modeling and scenario re-design
Incremental Transformative

10. Information on impacts of adaptation options
to influence decision making processes
10
Highly confidence in temperature increase
Uncertainty of rainfall change
Climate Crops
LivestockVulnerability and impact

11. RAP-4, transformative change
Indicators SSP2, RAP-2: Conventional development SSP1, RAP-4: Sustainable development
Systems
change
+ Better crop-livestock integration ++ Further crop-livestock integration;
crop diversification, intensification
Cultivated
land area
- Intensified production on less
land
+
45%
Setting cultivated land in use; labor
saving techn., better market access
Legume
cultivation
0 No change + +
300%
Groundnut and legume forages
Herd size + Small increase due to improved
feed and animal management
++
100%
Large increase; more fodder
production, market incentives
Input use + Fertilizer and improved seed for
maize
++
30%
Fertilizer and improved seed for all
crops
Off-farm
income
- Limited alternative options,
people rely more on agriculture
+
10%
Growth in other sectors attracts
people, income diversification
SSP1, RAP-4 “Sustainable development”
In Zimbabwe: conducive institutional environment for investment in sustainable solutions
Adaptation package-2 “Drought tolerant nutritious varieties”
Shift to sorghum, drought tolerant and high-yielding varieties, organic + inorganic soil
fertility management, fodder production

12. Economic effects:
incremental and transformative change
12
0 cattle 1-8 cattle >8 cattle
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
current
incremental
transformative
FarmNetReturns(US$/year)
0
20
40
60
80
100
current
incremental
transformative
Povertylevels(%)
extr. poor
poor
non-poor

13. Lessons
Integrated modelling framework
- Assess effects on both crops and livestock, whole-farm economics
- Take into account farm heterogeneity
Iterative process of scenarios and adaptation development with stakeholders
- Contextualizing: translate global drivers into local dynamics
- Identify enabling conditions for interventions and pathways
Most farmers in semi-arid Zimbabwe will loose from climate change and benefit
from adaptation options, but
- Benefits are small overall, because production levels are extremely low
- Apart from better-off farmers, most remain below the poverty line
 Currently promoted technologies are insufficient to lift people out of
poverty
 Drastic farming system re-design needs to be enabled by policy and
institutional interventions
 Persistent poverty suggests need for societal change and opportunities
outside agriculture

14. Plans for 2016
MOREP
• Facilitation procedures for multi-level learning through open IPs
• PM&E framework for IP driven win-win technologies and market development
• Report on resilient and profitable farming systems
• Journal papers submitted on value chain development, IP methodology, resilient
and profitable farming systems
AGMIP
• Integrated assessments completed for 4 sites
• Stakeholder engagement influencing decisions for adaptation to climate change
• Journal papers, book chapters published on re-designing smallholder mixed
farming systems under climate change
ZimCLIFS
• Capacity development and promotional material for IP facilitation and scaling out,
technical and institutional lessons
• Report on integrated technology use, drivers and barriers to technology uptake
• Journal paper submitted on co-designing transitions towards integrated market
oriented mixed farming systems

15. “We farmers are now engaged in a common
vision. We have a voice to express our needs,
to partners who bring knowledge to us”.

16. Modeling framework