This paper investigates the degree of association between major four crimes in Sudan, including illegal drug trafficking, murder, theft, and prostitution, with indicators of institutional weakness that include surge in other four crimes: duty & customs, forgery, passport related, and firearms & ammunition crimes. These later four crimes has been considered indicators of institutional weakness because upswing in these crimes is a reflection of corruption or negligence, or incompetence of institutional performance in the country. The canonical correlation test result indicates there is a very high and significant association between the major four crimes and the indicators of institutional weakness. This finding implies institutional weakness can nurture crime surge in the country. Cluster analysis indicates the type of crimes in conflict states of Darfor region are featured in the rest of the country except in the capital state, Khartoum which represent a separate cluster on its own. Cluster analysis also indicate murder crime is connected with prostitution; and theft crime is associated with firearms & ammunition crimes; custom & duty crimes connected with passport -related and illegal drugs crimes. However, illegal drugs crime is connected with murder, theft, and prostitution crimes.
Report: Effects of Marcellus Shale Development on the Criminal Justice SystemMarcellus Drilling News
The sixth report in a series published by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania. The data is extensive. There is none of the unprofessional focus group commentary that has characterized some previous reports in this series and there are actual comparisons between Marcellus and non-Marcellus counties that allow for more useful analysis. What’s most interesting about the report is that it completely voids most of the fractivist junk science and junk journalism we’ve seen on the subject of shale crime.
Corruption and Election in Conflict Northeast Indiainventionjournals
Democracy largely depends on the modus operandi of electioneering practices. Most of the politicians usually adopted various techniques and strategies to get their ends beyond electoral integrity. One or either form of corrupt practices appears widely in India’s northeast too which greatly demeans democracy. In the backdrop of various demands of different ethnic-based insurgencies, elections are also conducting in regular interval in this India’s Northeast. This study is based on quantitative and empirical methods through SPSS interpretation. Sources of data were mainly from structured questionnaire collected on the basis of random sampling method from electorates of India’s northeast. In contemporary, many insurgent groups have been interfering in the elections since they entered peace dialogue with government of India. This paper attempts to analyse corrupt practices and modus operandi of electioneering practices. Majority of electorates were also on the whims of perpetrators. The state of democracy in India’s northeast is clear example of flawed democracy where elections are in servitude.
Первый выпуск PwC Индекса противодействия коррупцииPwC Russia
PwC публикует свой первый выпуск Индекса противодействия коррупции (далее – «ABCI», anti-bribery and corruption index), измеряющего уровень соответствия российских компаний требованиям антикоррупционного законодательства.
Соблюдение требований антикоррупционного законодательства приобретает все большее значение в России и за рубежом. Результаты проведенного PwC исследования показывают, в какой степени предпринятые крупнейшими российскими компаниями действия отвечают этим требованиям. Для целей данного исследования было выполнено сравнение общедоступной информации по российским компаниям, относящейся к сфере соблюдения антикоррупционного законодательства, с передовой практикой в данной области.
An unsupervised learning
k-means clustering technique is used to identify and focus
on a set of crimes (prostitution, narcotics, burglary, battery
and interference with a public officer) recorded in the city
of Chicago. The crime data is supplemented with orthogonal
temperature and unemployment data. ANOVA and Kruskal-
Wallis statistical tests assess the temporal significance in
crimes clusters. The findings indicate various crime hot spots
which are temporal and location specific, and therefore may
act as input to the scheduling and allocation of policing resources.
Statistical analysis of electoral fraud presidential elections in armenia 2013Sassoon Kosian
This is a presentation of analysis done by Policy Forum Armenia (PFA) revealing wide scale election fraud committed during 2013 presidential elections in Armenia
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of the Congolese presidential and parliamentary electoral system.
FDA auditors gave the DRC an overall electoral score of 3.75%. (0% is the lowest score attainable; 50% is the minimum passing grade; 100% is the maximum score attainable.)
Report: Effects of Marcellus Shale Development on the Criminal Justice SystemMarcellus Drilling News
The sixth report in a series published by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania. The data is extensive. There is none of the unprofessional focus group commentary that has characterized some previous reports in this series and there are actual comparisons between Marcellus and non-Marcellus counties that allow for more useful analysis. What’s most interesting about the report is that it completely voids most of the fractivist junk science and junk journalism we’ve seen on the subject of shale crime.
Corruption and Election in Conflict Northeast Indiainventionjournals
Democracy largely depends on the modus operandi of electioneering practices. Most of the politicians usually adopted various techniques and strategies to get their ends beyond electoral integrity. One or either form of corrupt practices appears widely in India’s northeast too which greatly demeans democracy. In the backdrop of various demands of different ethnic-based insurgencies, elections are also conducting in regular interval in this India’s Northeast. This study is based on quantitative and empirical methods through SPSS interpretation. Sources of data were mainly from structured questionnaire collected on the basis of random sampling method from electorates of India’s northeast. In contemporary, many insurgent groups have been interfering in the elections since they entered peace dialogue with government of India. This paper attempts to analyse corrupt practices and modus operandi of electioneering practices. Majority of electorates were also on the whims of perpetrators. The state of democracy in India’s northeast is clear example of flawed democracy where elections are in servitude.
Первый выпуск PwC Индекса противодействия коррупцииPwC Russia
PwC публикует свой первый выпуск Индекса противодействия коррупции (далее – «ABCI», anti-bribery and corruption index), измеряющего уровень соответствия российских компаний требованиям антикоррупционного законодательства.
Соблюдение требований антикоррупционного законодательства приобретает все большее значение в России и за рубежом. Результаты проведенного PwC исследования показывают, в какой степени предпринятые крупнейшими российскими компаниями действия отвечают этим требованиям. Для целей данного исследования было выполнено сравнение общедоступной информации по российским компаниям, относящейся к сфере соблюдения антикоррупционного законодательства, с передовой практикой в данной области.
An unsupervised learning
k-means clustering technique is used to identify and focus
on a set of crimes (prostitution, narcotics, burglary, battery
and interference with a public officer) recorded in the city
of Chicago. The crime data is supplemented with orthogonal
temperature and unemployment data. ANOVA and Kruskal-
Wallis statistical tests assess the temporal significance in
crimes clusters. The findings indicate various crime hot spots
which are temporal and location specific, and therefore may
act as input to the scheduling and allocation of policing resources.
Statistical analysis of electoral fraud presidential elections in armenia 2013Sassoon Kosian
This is a presentation of analysis done by Policy Forum Armenia (PFA) revealing wide scale election fraud committed during 2013 presidential elections in Armenia
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of the Congolese presidential and parliamentary electoral system.
FDA auditors gave the DRC an overall electoral score of 3.75%. (0% is the lowest score attainable; 50% is the minimum passing grade; 100% is the maximum score attainable.)
An Intelligence Analysis of Crime Data for Law Enforcement Using Data MiningWaqas Tariq
The concern about national security has increased significantly since the 26/11 attacks at Mumbai, India. However, information and technology overload hinders the effective analysis of criminal and terrorist activities. Data mining applied in the context of law enforcement and intelligence analysis holds the promise of alleviating such problem. In this paper we use a clustering/classify based model to anticipate crime trends. The data mining techniques are used to analyze the city crime data from Tamil Nadu Police Department. The results of this data mining could potentially be used to lessen and even prevent crime for the forth coming years
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of the Lebanon republic electoral system.
FDA auditors gave Lebanon an overall electoral score of 35%. (50% is the minimum passing grade.)
Российский обзор экономических преступлений за 2016 годPwC Russia
В этом году в центре внимания нашего исследования находятся три вопроса: программы по соблюдению правил деловой этики и нормативно-правовых требований; противодействие легализации (отмыванию) доходов, полученных преступным путем; и киберпреступления. Помимо конкретных аспектов экономических преступлений, на которых следует сосредоточить особое внимание, в обзоре подчеркивается важность реализации более комплексных и эффективных мер, которые позволяют минимизировать указанные риски.
Corruption, Norms, and Legal Enforcement: Evidence from Diplomatic Parking Ti...Khaing Sape Saw
The comparison of parking violations by diplomats from different societies as a reasonable measure of the degree of corruption : social norms or a corruption culture?
2011 FDA Global Electoral Fairness Report on the United States Federal Electoral System.
FDA auditors gave the US an overall grade of 30%. (50% minimum passing grade.)
Authors: Martin Foureaux Koppensteinery, Jesse Mathesonz, and Réka Plugor
This working paper will be/have been presented at SITE brown bag seminar 2020-11-03. Martin Foureaux Koppensteinery have given SITE the permission to upload and share the working paper on our website and social media channels.
2011 FDA Global Electoral Fairness Audit of Spain's federal electoral system
FDA auditors gave Spain an overall electoral fairness score of 42.25%. (50% is the minimum passing grade; 100% is the maximum grade.)
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of Bolivia's presidential and parliamentary electoral system
FDA auditors gave Bolivia an overall electoral score of 78.75%. (50% is the minimum passing grade; 100% is maximum grade.)
LexisNexis Human Trafficking Awareness Index Curtis Maggard
Human trafficking is an egregious violation of
human rights. It is the ultimate manifestation of
many of the systemic socio-economic, cultural,
political and structural problems which continue
to entrench exclusion, inequality, discrimination
and exploitation across the globe.
LexisNexis believes that sustainable social,
political and economic progress can only exist
in societies where the Rule of Law exists. This is
why, as a company, we are globally committed
to the Rule of Law principle and will continue to
work throughout the world to help consolidate
and update the laws of all countries.
Conduct an analysis of community policing/tutorialoutletWoodardz
FOR MORE CLASSES VISIT
tutorialoutletdotcom
• Introduction
Policing has evolved over the last century to encompass not only crime¬fighting methodologies, but also an
increase in services to the community.
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of Iraq's federal electoral system
FDA auditors gave Iraq an overall electoral score of 35.25%. (50% is the minimum passing grade; 100% is the maximum grade.)
U.S. Electoral Fairness Report revised as of April 11, 2013
Executive Summary
The American federal electoral system borders a failed state as determined by the overall unsatisfactory audit score of 54.5 percent (out of 100 percent). The FDA auditors measured
1) two failing scores for legislation pertaining to electoral finance (48.25 percent) and media election content (42.5 percent);
2) one unsatisfactory score for legislation pertaining to candidates and parties
(57 percent);
3) one satisfactory score for legislation pertaining to voters (70.25 percent).
The FDA auditors factored in 52 independent variables and used matrices and financial spreadsheets in its calculations and determinations. Based on its measurements, the FDA believes that the American federal election outcomes may not reflect the voice of Americans from electoral districts. The significant legislated unfair competition between American candidates and parties coupled with electoral finance legislation favoring wealthy money interests and media legislation favoring large corporate media and imbalanced election coverage creates a system tilted heavily to special and minority interests, rather than the American people. The FDA believes that reforms are necessary in electoral finance and election coverage in order to help realign the American federal electoral process with Americans as a whole. The FDA recommends, for examples, expenditure limits on congressional candidates and privately funded presidential candidates, caps on independent third-party expenditure, caps on media ownership concentration, and a voluntary media code of conduct during the 60 day campaign period which supports impartial and balanced campaign coverage of all registered candidates and parties.
The FDA recommends that the public get involved with the government legislative process and implementation if they want to protect and advance their democratic voice, and create a society of their choosing.
“If liberty and equality, as is thought by some, are chiefly to be found in democracy, they will be best attained when all persons alike share in government to the utmost.”
- Aristotle
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of the Canadian federal electoral system.
FDA auditors gave Canada an overall electoral score of 25.75%. (50% is the minimum passing grade.)
Manage the risks and profit from global market uncertainty - The world of country and political risk assessment has changed significantly over the last decade, with a plethora of views and approaches that can often obfuscate clear and balanced
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of the Syria federal electoral system.
FDA auditors gave Russia an overall electoral score of 35%. (50% is the minimum passing grade.)
Lack of Communication, Resources, Trust As Well As Political Interference And...AJHSSR Journal
Crime continues to be a serious problem in South Africa, as the country ranks 3rd on the global
crime index as at 2016. The damaging impact of crime on the safety and security of communities, peace and
stability in the country as well as its effect on the country’s reputation among potential international tourists and
investors, and how all these affect the general quality of life of ordinary citizens need no emphasis. Crime
solutions that work and are cost effective remain elusive. However, due to its success in reducing crime rates in
different parts of the world since its introduction in the United States of America during the 1970s, community
policing is now a standard ideological and policy model guiding mission statements, goals, and reform programs
of most policing agencies across the world. Regardless of its enviable status in the practicing of policing, more
than twenty (20) years after the attainment of democracy, the question beckons whether the inception of
community policing and particularly community policing forums is an effective strategy within the South
African communities to combat and prevent crime. This paper draws from the work of a PhD thesis, submitted
at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. The primary objective of this paper is to explore the challenges of CPFs in
combating crime in two dissimilar residential locations in Durban.A qualitative research approach was adopted,
the findings collected through focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with a total number of
fifty-five (55) participants comprising of South African Police Service (SAPS) and CPFs representatives,
political leaders and ordinary members of the two communities suggest limited knowledge of and affinity to
CPFs by community members. This owes partly to lack of communication, resources, trust, as well as political
interference and SAPS organisational culture, which affect the functioning of these CPFs. Together, these
findings suggest that more effort is needed from both the community and the police for an effective functioning
of the CPFs.
An Intelligence Analysis of Crime Data for Law Enforcement Using Data MiningWaqas Tariq
The concern about national security has increased significantly since the 26/11 attacks at Mumbai, India. However, information and technology overload hinders the effective analysis of criminal and terrorist activities. Data mining applied in the context of law enforcement and intelligence analysis holds the promise of alleviating such problem. In this paper we use a clustering/classify based model to anticipate crime trends. The data mining techniques are used to analyze the city crime data from Tamil Nadu Police Department. The results of this data mining could potentially be used to lessen and even prevent crime for the forth coming years
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of the Lebanon republic electoral system.
FDA auditors gave Lebanon an overall electoral score of 35%. (50% is the minimum passing grade.)
Российский обзор экономических преступлений за 2016 годPwC Russia
В этом году в центре внимания нашего исследования находятся три вопроса: программы по соблюдению правил деловой этики и нормативно-правовых требований; противодействие легализации (отмыванию) доходов, полученных преступным путем; и киберпреступления. Помимо конкретных аспектов экономических преступлений, на которых следует сосредоточить особое внимание, в обзоре подчеркивается важность реализации более комплексных и эффективных мер, которые позволяют минимизировать указанные риски.
Corruption, Norms, and Legal Enforcement: Evidence from Diplomatic Parking Ti...Khaing Sape Saw
The comparison of parking violations by diplomats from different societies as a reasonable measure of the degree of corruption : social norms or a corruption culture?
2011 FDA Global Electoral Fairness Report on the United States Federal Electoral System.
FDA auditors gave the US an overall grade of 30%. (50% minimum passing grade.)
Authors: Martin Foureaux Koppensteinery, Jesse Mathesonz, and Réka Plugor
This working paper will be/have been presented at SITE brown bag seminar 2020-11-03. Martin Foureaux Koppensteinery have given SITE the permission to upload and share the working paper on our website and social media channels.
2011 FDA Global Electoral Fairness Audit of Spain's federal electoral system
FDA auditors gave Spain an overall electoral fairness score of 42.25%. (50% is the minimum passing grade; 100% is the maximum grade.)
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of Bolivia's presidential and parliamentary electoral system
FDA auditors gave Bolivia an overall electoral score of 78.75%. (50% is the minimum passing grade; 100% is maximum grade.)
LexisNexis Human Trafficking Awareness Index Curtis Maggard
Human trafficking is an egregious violation of
human rights. It is the ultimate manifestation of
many of the systemic socio-economic, cultural,
political and structural problems which continue
to entrench exclusion, inequality, discrimination
and exploitation across the globe.
LexisNexis believes that sustainable social,
political and economic progress can only exist
in societies where the Rule of Law exists. This is
why, as a company, we are globally committed
to the Rule of Law principle and will continue to
work throughout the world to help consolidate
and update the laws of all countries.
Conduct an analysis of community policing/tutorialoutletWoodardz
FOR MORE CLASSES VISIT
tutorialoutletdotcom
• Introduction
Policing has evolved over the last century to encompass not only crime¬fighting methodologies, but also an
increase in services to the community.
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of Iraq's federal electoral system
FDA auditors gave Iraq an overall electoral score of 35.25%. (50% is the minimum passing grade; 100% is the maximum grade.)
U.S. Electoral Fairness Report revised as of April 11, 2013
Executive Summary
The American federal electoral system borders a failed state as determined by the overall unsatisfactory audit score of 54.5 percent (out of 100 percent). The FDA auditors measured
1) two failing scores for legislation pertaining to electoral finance (48.25 percent) and media election content (42.5 percent);
2) one unsatisfactory score for legislation pertaining to candidates and parties
(57 percent);
3) one satisfactory score for legislation pertaining to voters (70.25 percent).
The FDA auditors factored in 52 independent variables and used matrices and financial spreadsheets in its calculations and determinations. Based on its measurements, the FDA believes that the American federal election outcomes may not reflect the voice of Americans from electoral districts. The significant legislated unfair competition between American candidates and parties coupled with electoral finance legislation favoring wealthy money interests and media legislation favoring large corporate media and imbalanced election coverage creates a system tilted heavily to special and minority interests, rather than the American people. The FDA believes that reforms are necessary in electoral finance and election coverage in order to help realign the American federal electoral process with Americans as a whole. The FDA recommends, for examples, expenditure limits on congressional candidates and privately funded presidential candidates, caps on independent third-party expenditure, caps on media ownership concentration, and a voluntary media code of conduct during the 60 day campaign period which supports impartial and balanced campaign coverage of all registered candidates and parties.
The FDA recommends that the public get involved with the government legislative process and implementation if they want to protect and advance their democratic voice, and create a society of their choosing.
“If liberty and equality, as is thought by some, are chiefly to be found in democracy, they will be best attained when all persons alike share in government to the utmost.”
- Aristotle
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of the Canadian federal electoral system.
FDA auditors gave Canada an overall electoral score of 25.75%. (50% is the minimum passing grade.)
Manage the risks and profit from global market uncertainty - The world of country and political risk assessment has changed significantly over the last decade, with a plethora of views and approaches that can often obfuscate clear and balanced
2011 FDA Electoral Fairness Audit of the Syria federal electoral system.
FDA auditors gave Russia an overall electoral score of 35%. (50% is the minimum passing grade.)
Lack of Communication, Resources, Trust As Well As Political Interference And...AJHSSR Journal
Crime continues to be a serious problem in South Africa, as the country ranks 3rd on the global
crime index as at 2016. The damaging impact of crime on the safety and security of communities, peace and
stability in the country as well as its effect on the country’s reputation among potential international tourists and
investors, and how all these affect the general quality of life of ordinary citizens need no emphasis. Crime
solutions that work and are cost effective remain elusive. However, due to its success in reducing crime rates in
different parts of the world since its introduction in the United States of America during the 1970s, community
policing is now a standard ideological and policy model guiding mission statements, goals, and reform programs
of most policing agencies across the world. Regardless of its enviable status in the practicing of policing, more
than twenty (20) years after the attainment of democracy, the question beckons whether the inception of
community policing and particularly community policing forums is an effective strategy within the South
African communities to combat and prevent crime. This paper draws from the work of a PhD thesis, submitted
at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. The primary objective of this paper is to explore the challenges of CPFs in
combating crime in two dissimilar residential locations in Durban.A qualitative research approach was adopted,
the findings collected through focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with a total number of
fifty-five (55) participants comprising of South African Police Service (SAPS) and CPFs representatives,
political leaders and ordinary members of the two communities suggest limited knowledge of and affinity to
CPFs by community members. This owes partly to lack of communication, resources, trust, as well as political
interference and SAPS organisational culture, which affect the functioning of these CPFs. Together, these
findings suggest that more effort is needed from both the community and the police for an effective functioning
of the CPFs.
Abstract : Crime prediction is a topic of significant research across the fields of criminology, data mining, city planning, law enforcement, and political science. Crime patterns exist on a spatial level; these patterns can be grouped geographically by physical location, and analyzed contextually based on the region
in which crime occurs. This paper proposes a mechanism to parameterize street-level crime, localize crime hotspots, identify correlations between spatiotemporal crime patterns and social trends, and analyze the resulting data for the purposes of knowledge discovery and anomaly detection. The subject of this study is the county of Merseyside in the United Kingdom, over a span of 21 months beginning in December 2010 (monthly) through August 2012. Several types of crime are analyzed in this dataset, including Burglary and Antisocial Behavior. Through this analysis, several interesting findings are drawn about crime in Merseyside, including: hotspots with steadily increasing crime levels, hotspots with unstable crime levels, synchronous changes in crime trends throughout Merseyside as a whole, individual months in which certain hotspots behaved anomalously, and a strong correlation between crime hotspot locations and borough/postal code locations. We believe that this type of statistical and correlative analysis of crime patterns will help law enforcement agencies predict criminal activity, allocate resources, and promote community awareness to reduce overall crime rates.
For more information, please visit: http://people.cs.vt.edu/parang/ or contact parang at firstname at cs vt edu
Student #1 I have chosen to write about the history of data anal.docxjohniemcm5zt
Student #1
I have chosen to write about the history of data analysis for the Los Angeles Police Department. While I currently reside in Colorado Springs, Colorado and work as a deputy sheriff in Denver, Colorado I grew up in the greater Los Angeles area and I know that they should have a large amount of data to draw from.
Currently the Los Angeles Police Department uses COMPSTAT to compile their data. They have a unit, known as the COMPSTAT unit, whose sole job is to compile crime statistics and analyze the data (Los Angeles Police Department, 2016) COMPSTAT is short for computer statistics. COMPSTAT was developed by Police Commissioner William Bratton in 1994 for use by the New York Police Department. According to the University of Maryland by the year 2000 over a third of police agencies with over 100 officers were utilizing some sort of COMPSTAT like program (University of Maryland, 2015). In 2002 William Bratton became the Chief of Police for the Los Angeles Police Department and brought with him the concept of COMPSTAT. During the first six years of his tenure Los Angeles saw a steady decrease in the cities crime rates thanks largely in part to COMPSTAT policing.
Mean, mode and median play a large part in analyzing criminal data. The mean is the average number. An example of this for crime data analysis would be in neighborhood C there was 14 robberies committed on Monday between 1 and 3 AM, 17 robberies on Tuesday at the same time period and 9 on Wednesday during the same time period. The mean would be 13.3 robberies per night for those 3 nights. Knowing this is high for the city the data could be used to justify extra police presence in Neighborhood C. An example of the mode would be if in the same neighborhood in the same week there were 17 robberies on both Friday and Saturday, 12 on Thursday and 11 on Sunday. The mode would be 17 and it would also be a reason to add extra police presence in the neighborhood until a significant decrease was seen in the amount of robberies taking place. Finally we come to the median. This is simply line the numbers up for the week and take the number that falls in the middle. In the case of the robberies occurring in neighborhood C the number would be 14. All of this data can be combined to show watch commanders and captain’s areas where they should be focusing their officer’s time. If there is a neighborhood that has seen only one or two robberies during the week, it is definitely not in as much need of a heavy police presence as Neighborhood C is.
Student #2
Beginning in the mid-1990’s, police in New York began to run statistical analysis of the city’s crime reports, arrests and other police activity known as COMPSTAT. Law enforcement agencies since this analysis began, has implemented their own data-driven approaches to tracking and adapting to crime trends. The LAPD is both heavily armed and thoroughly computerized. The Real-Time Analysis and Critical Response Division is its central processor..
Vanessa Schoening February 13, 2014Module 2 .docxMARRY7
Vanessa Schoening February 13, 2014
Module 2 Revised
Annotated Bibliography Revised
1. Bureau of Justice Statistics (1999). Number of homicides and population for cities with estimated population 100,000 or more, from 1985-1997.
This paper begins by acknowledging that most studies carried out into crimes have focused on the features of the populations such as age, employment and average earnings. The writers hold that the fact that population density has not been studied much represents a knowledge gap. The paper tries to find out whether population density has a negative or positive correlation with crime. Through sifting through previous studies, the paper tries to find out the nature of crimes that are rampant in varying populations.
2. Christens, B., & Speer, P. W. (2006). Predicting violent crime using urban and suburban densities. Behavior and Social Issues, 14(2), 113-127.
Christens and Speer go through past research and statistics and try to show the varying nature of crimes in different settlements areas. Their main focus is on violent and crime and they try to show that densely populated areas are more likely to see violent crime due to increased chances of conflict. Their other argument is that low-income areas are likely to see more violent crime.
3. Duany, A., Plater-Zyberk, E., & Speck, J. (2000). Suburban nation: The rise of sprawl and thedecline of the American dream. New York: North Point Press.
The authors of this book are founders of a movement that calls for an improved planning of settlements to avoid further spread of sprawls or informal settlements. The book highlights the effects of these settlements including economic and social ills. The book gives real life examples of how unplanned and congested settlements coupled with low income can cause crime. The book also offers solutions on how to improve the planning of cities and suburbs
4. Fulton, W., Pendall, R., Nguyen, M. & Harrison, A. (2001). Who sprawls most? How growth patterns differ across the U.S. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution.
This book takes a look at population densities in various cities across the US between 1982 and 1997. The book also acknowledges that as cities grow, they continue to add previously unused land into their metropolitan territory. The book tries to compare the rate at which this land is being urbanized against the population growth. The book holds that cities in the west of the US have highly populated metropolitans and goes ahead to outline some of the challenges that may pose.
5. LaFree, G., Bursik, R.J., Short, J. & Taylor, R.B. (2000). The nature of crime: Continuity and change. Criminal Justice 2000, 1, 261-308.
The authors of this article begin by pointing out that the nature of crimes and reaction of societies towards various crimes do not remain constant. The writers hold that changing legislations and people’s attitudes can affect the nature of crimes. The availability of IT for instance creates a new ...
Journal of-Criminal Justice, Vol. 7, pp. 217-241 (1979). Per.docxpriestmanmable
Journal of-Criminal Justice, Vol. 7, pp. 217-241 (1979).
Pergamon Press. Printed in U.S.A.
0047-2352’79/030217-26s2.WO
Copyright @ 1979 Pergamon Press Ltd
INFORMATION, APPREHENSION, AND DETERRENCE:
EXPLORING THE LIMITS OF POLICE PRODUCTIVITY
WESLEY G. SKOGAN
Department of Political Science and Center for Urban Affairs
Northwestern University
Evanston. Illinois 60201
GEORGE E. ANTUNES
Department of Political Science
University of Houston
Houston, Texas 77004
and
Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis
Indiana University
Bloomington, Indiana 47401
ABSTRACT
The capacity of police departments to solve crimes and
apprehend offenders is low for many types of crime, particu-
larly crimes of profit. This article reviews a variety of studies
of police apprehension and hypothesizes that an important
determinant of the ability of the police to apprehend crimi-
nals is information. The complete absence of information for
many types of crime places fairly clear upper bounds on the
ability of the police to effect solutions.
To discover whether these boundaries are high or low we
analyzed data from the 1973 National Crime Panel about the
types and amount of information potentially available to po-
lice through victim reports and patrol activities. The evidence
suggests that if the police rely on information made readily
217
218 WESLEY G. SKOGAN and GEORGE E. ANTUNES
available to them, they will never do much better than they
are doing now. On the other hand, there appears to be more
information available to bystanders and passing patrols than
currently is being used, which suggests that surveillance
strategies and improved police methods for eliciting, record-
ing, and analyzing information supplied by victims and wit-
nesses might increase the probability of solving crimes and
making arrests. In light of this we review a few possibly help-
ful innovations suggested in the literature on police produc-
tivity and procedure.
Some characteristics of the crime itself, or of events surrounding the crime, that are
beyond the control of investigators, determine whether it will be cleared in most in-
stances. (Greenwood et al., 1975: 65)
There is no feasible way to solve most crimes except by securing the cooperation of
citizens to link a person to the crime. (Reiss, 1971: 105)
INTRODUCTION
A recent spate of studies of crime and the deterrent effectiveness of the criminal
justice system has raised anew a question as old as Bentham: Does raising the cost of
criminal activity signiticantly reduce the level of crime in a community? In these studies,
the cost of criminal activity has been conceptualized in two ways: as the loss of time and
opportunity attendant to apprehension (measured by the certainty of arrest or punish-
ment), and as the stigma, discomfort, and loss of opportunity that come with conviction
by the courts (measured by the severity of punishment). Indicators of the di ...
2Crime Occurrence Evaluation PaperProfessor M. Callaha.docxlorainedeserre
2
Crime Occurrence Evaluation Paper
Professor M. Callahan
AJS/514
Grace Acevedo
October 28, 2019
Crime Occurrence Evaluation
Criminal Justice involves a set of interdisciplinary knowledge and integrated systematic actions to reach the awareness of a truth related to the criminal phenomenon, which includes the management of strategies that scrutinizes the role of the victim, the offender, and the crime as such, and the study of techniques aimed at countering, controlling and preventing criminal activity. This paper intends to interpret the occurrence of crime.
Current Trends in the Crime Rate
Based on FBI data, crime rates decreased by 3.9% during the past year and have continued to decrease. These include murder, robbery, burglary, vehicle thefts, larceny, and non-negligent manslaughter. With rape, the rate showed to have increased, subsequent in the last six years (https://www.themarshallproject.org/2019/09/30/new-fbi-data-violent-crime-still-falling)
Social and Environmental Factors Influencing Crime Rate
Economic circumstances as poverty and lack of employment are issues that affect low income communities. Communities where abnormal behavior is ignored and/or stimulated result in criminal activities. The population holding firearms has exploded. Between 6% to 10% of teenagers in high school have access to guns carry guns to school, this escalating to committing violent crimes (https://phoenix.vitalsource.com/#/books/9781337514910/). The recruiting of children and teenagers in gangs is rising, drugs and substance abuse are major causes for violent crimes. Exposing children to violent video games is an issue affecting today’s generation by teaching violence and undermining law enforcement (https://phoenix.vitalsource.com/#/books/9781337514910/).
Factors that contribute to Criminal Behavior and Crime Rate
Family relationships lead to criminal behavior. The lack of attention from parents to children, a household composed of one parent, child abuse, exposure to drugs and alcohol, and prostitution are some situations that push children and teenagers to seek support from other sources where bad influences can trigger delinquency.
Antisocial behavior leads to engage in delinquent acts. Risk-taking is another factor in committing delinquent activities and is most seen between the ages of 11 to 21. During this period, behaviors such as careless driving, substance use, unprotected sex, eating disorders, homicidal and suicidal behaviors, and dangerous sports are characteristics of risk-taking that lead to criminal behavior.
Investigating Crime Occurrence through Research and Theory Development
Social structure theories state that criminality is a product of social forces which include traditions, responsibilities, laws, morality, and religious beliefs (Calderon, M.). These theories are social disorganization, social change, conflict, and lack of social consensus as root causes of crime. The “broken window” theory focuses on ...
GIS is a discipline that heavily relies on data. In this presentation we highlight all the geospatial data sources for crime mapping.
Visit https://expertwritinghelp.com/gis-assignment-help/ for quality gis assignment aid
The Relationship Rural Development and CrimesAI Publications
Over the past few years, metropolitan crime has fallen significantly in the United States while nonmetropolitan crime has continued to increase. The main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between crimes and urban development. This study had chosen a survey research, to analyze the relationship between the relationship rural development and crimes. The author applied a structured survey as tool of this research. I distributed 150 questionnaires, but only 118 questionnaires I was able to receive. The findings revealed that there is positive and significant relationship between crimes and urban development.
The Importance of Indeterminate and Unknown Factors in Nourishing Crime: A Ca...MOHDSAIFWAJID1
There is no doubt regarding the notion that crime is deteriorating the socio-economic
structure of society. Crime poses a serious threat to human values and existence. Therefore this
menace should be stopped as early as possible otherwise it would lead to unavoidable
circumstances. Whenever policies are formed there are some certain factors that are always taken
into consideration to stop the crime. These measures were effective but with the passage of time
there seems to be a constant situation and crime seems to be at its peak. This situation has forced us
to think that there may be other factors that are leading to criminal behaviour in humans. These
factors may be uncertain, unknown or indeterminate. Though previous researches in this regard
have taken into consideration all the known factors, the present work takes into account both known
and unknown factors together with the relationship among them. Taking into account all the factors
which nourish crime either directly or indirectly, here we try to model the situation mathematically
using Neutrosophic Cognitive Map since it provides us with a methodology of representing known
and unknown factors together. The work is carried out using graphical methods and concepts
together with linear algebra. The present work takes into account the crimes which are occurring in
South Africa and models this situation taking into considerations all the certain and uncertain
factors. The study reveals that relative poverty & inadequate housing, limited social and cognitive
abilities, exclusion from school, family violence, culture conflict, colonialism, unemployment,
income inequality, violent expressions of masculinity and use of violence to ‘resolve’ are directly
related to crime in the country. The other factors such as Adherence to social norms, the multi-racial
character of the society, Racial discrimination, apartheid policy, political transition, restructuring of
the criminal justice system, gathering of people, intimate partner violence & femicide and use of
‘tik’ (crystal meth/ methamphetamine) which were not supposed to have a direct influence on crime
in the country by previous researches are also having a significant effect on crime. The present work
contributes effectively in identifying the factors leading to criminal behaviour among people. This
would in turn help policymakers to take necessary steps at ground level to curb the crime in the
country. The work also shows the modelling of the situation using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps just to
represent the effectiveness of Neutrosophic Cognitive Maps over them.
Research and Policy DevelopmentAfter reading Chapter 5 of th.docxrgladys1
Research and Policy Development
After reading Chapter 5 of the Mosher textbook, the article entitled "Internet Development, Censorship, and
Cyber
Crimes in China" by Liang and Lu, and the article entitled "'Snitches End Up in Ditches' and Other Cautionary Tales" by Morris, I can relate to how the contents of these sources affect research and policy development. While they are presented differently, these research articles have unique implications on the development of criminal justice policy. I am particularly drawn towards the text by Morris (2010). If members of the society such as teenagers can establish a culture that inhibits sharing information with formal authorities, one construct that is affected is the criminal justice public policy development process that depends on the ability of
law
enforcement to deliberate with members of the society to establish a consensus regarding which policies to pursue. Policing is a social process and if officers are denied information by the community through such codes, the criminal justice system cannot execute its mandate.
As a criminal justice leader, the National Crime Victimization Survey would concern me because this
survey
avails important information about the frequency of crime and the proportion that goes unreported (Ybarra & Lohr, 2002). When compared to the Uniform Crime Report, I would say that incident-based reporting provides official crime data and may be limited as with regards to its ability to provide a general view of crime rates that take place. In fact, it fails to capture crimes that are not reported to the police. As I have already mentioned, the “Snitches End Up in Ditches' and Other Cautionary Tales” is a particularly powerful article because it invokes action from criminal justice leaders. The action that I would take is to promote better relations between law enforcement entities and the community to establish a mutually inclusive work environment for better policy making.
References
Morris, E. W. (2010). “Snitches end up in ditches” and other cautionary tales.
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice
,
26
(3), 254-272.
Ybarra, L. M., & Lohr, S. L. (2002). Estimates of repeat victimization using the National Crime Victimization Survey.
Journal of Quantitative Criminology
,
18
(1), 1-21.
.
US POLICIES ON TWO TRANSNATIONAL CRIMES, ILLICIT DRUG .docxdickonsondorris
US POLICIES ON TWO TRANSNATIONAL CRIMES, ILLICIT DRUG
TRAFFICKING AND CYBER-LAUNDERING, WILL NOT SECURE THE
HOMELAND FROM TERRORIST THREATS
A Master Thesis
Submitted to the Faculty
of
American Public University
by
First Name Last Name
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
of
Master of Arts
April 2012
American Public University
Charles Town, WV
1
Introduction and Purpose Statement
The threats to America that are imposed from transnational crimes are constantly changing.
The threats may originate from other nations throughout the world; but, the impacts throughout
America is surreal. The US Government fight against transnational crimes are nothing less than
intricate. US interests abroad are impacted by these threatening networks. Weapons trafficking,
intellectual property theft, cybercrime, human smuggling, trafficking in persons, and illicit drug
trafficking contribute to other crimes that evolves around these transnational crimes. The bottom
line is that the threats created by these crimes are not isolated to one specific nation or a specific
region in the world. The US Government policies that are designed to combat transnational
crimes must address both present-day threats and potential future threats.
The purpose of this paper is to explore US Government policies targeting illicit drug
trafficking and cyber-laundering while identifying vulnerabilities within the policies (if any) and
their impact on threats from terrorist organizations. Transnational crime, narcotics, and terrorism
financing are not geographical concerns. All three can be linked specifically by having potential
effect across national borders. Transnational Organized Crime (TOC) has established a
significant and increasing threat to national and international security, with dire implications for
public safety, public health, democratic institutions, and economic stability across the globe
(Finckenauer 2006, 124). The US Government have many Presidential Directives (PD) and
policies that target these areas, but are they really having an impact? Without a shadow of a
doubt, drug trafficking has resulted in funding that has supported terrorism and in some cases
such as the Madrid bombing, drugs were being utilized as the currency. The same scenario can
happen in any small or large city in America. US Government policies must be able to
compliment or supplement other Nations policies in the fight against transnational crime.
2
Because of varies religious beliefs and political views of western nations, the tasking will be
equivalent to finding a cotton ball in the field of snow.
Cybercrime is such a lucrative criminal adventure because anyone can be anyone and
anywhere in a digital environment. The utilization of electronic funding transactions
domestically and or internationally can create difficult detective efforts for an ...
Similar to Crime Surge and Institutional Weakness: are They Associated? Evidence from a Conflict Country (20)
The study of spatial socio-economic development constitutes a significant field of analysis of innovation creation and diffusion. Understanding the spatial evolution of the different socio-economic systems in the age of globalization requires a synthesizing and integrated theoretical approach to how innovation is generated and replicated. This article aims to study three significant spatial socio-economic development theories –the growth poles, the clusters, and the business ecosystems. A literature review reveals that (a) the concept of growth poles concerns mostly the analysis of spatial polarization between specific territories and regions, (b) the clusters concept addresses the issue of developed inter-industrial competition and co-operation from a meso-level perspective, and (c) the analytical field of business ecosystems provides an evolutionary approach that can be valorized for all co-evolving spatial socio-economic organizations. In this context, an eclectically interventional mechanism to strengthen innovation is suggested. The Institutes of Local Development and Innovation (ILDI) policy is proposed for all firms and business ecosystems, of every size, level of spatial development, prior knowledge, specialization, and competitive ability. The ILDI is presented as an intermediate organization capable of diagnosing and enhancing the firm’s physiology in structural Stra.Tech.Man terms (strategy-technology-management synthesis).
The formulation and implementation of development plans serve as the benchmark for evaluating economic progress in different sectors of an economy. Since independence, successive administrations in Nigeria have paraded different economic development plans. At the continental level also, several development programmes have been articulated for driving development in the countries of Africa. Many times, supposed laudable economic programmes have failed to identify with the interest of citizens, largely due to poor communication of such programmes. This study investigated citizens’ participation in the implementation of Nigeria’s Vision 20:2020. Among others, the study asked the following questions: to what extent are Nigerian citizens aware goals of Vision 20:2020 economic blueprint? What were the media used in popularising Nigeria’s Vision 20:2020 economic blueprint? The study was anchored on the Participatory Development theory. The survey research design was used to study a population of 84, 004, 084 from which a sample size of 384 respondents was drawn. The sample was based on Keyton’s sampling system. Findings of the study showed that many citizens of Nigeria do not understand the goals of Vision 20:2020. It was also found out that many citizens of Nigeria cannot identify development projects executed in line with the goals of Vision 20:2020. Based on these findings, the study recommended, among other things, that the Nigerian government should partner with civil society organisations to popularise the goals of Vision 20:2020. It was also recommended that citizens of Nigeria should be encouraged to participate in the formulation and implementation of development programmes.
The central purpose of the study is to evaluate the programs, project planning and management in Ethiopian Red Cross society and its comparison with procedures of project planning and management system. The study found that Ethiopian Red Cross society has been working on a lot of community development projects in Ethiopia for several decades. Most projects were principally emphasized on disaster and risk reduction. Different organizations use diverse project procedures to achieve the anticipated objectives. This also true for the Ethiopian Red Cross society projects. The Ethiopian Red Cross society had integrated some unique style of project planning and management system in its project. Thus, there was no total departure in the whole system of project development phases. Every cycle of the project life spans are used beginning from the point of concept initiation to final implementation and closure phases.
Although Africa’s contribution to the world’s greenhouse gas emission is the smallest compared to other continents, yet they tend to be affected most by the variability in Climate. Malawi is not an exception to this climate change, as they are not just faced with rising temperatures and variable rainfall patterns, but with reoccurring droughts and severe flooding. Agriculture has been noted to contribute significantly to not only climate change but also has significant impacts on global warming through its greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, not all farming systems impact negatively on climate change. Conservation Agriculture is a farming system that encourages no or minimum soil disturbance, maintenance of a permanent soil cover, and diversification of crop species. These three interlinked principles combined with good agricultural practices promote biodiversity and normal biotic processes, both on and under the ground surface, thereby increasing the productivity and nutrient use efficiency of water, into a more resilient farming system which will help sustain and improve agricultural production. This review looks at Conservation Agriculture practices in the Machinga Agricultural Development Division of Malawi and its role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. This paper shows that Conservation Agriculture has played an active role in the adaptation and mitigation of climate change effect by reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions but suggested there is a need for the government to formulate a CA framework that is founded on the three interlinked principles and not just based on soil and water conservation principles which are currently being advocated and practised.
The study was conducted on issues affecting the academic achievement of female students in selected primary schools of Jimma Arjo woreda while its objective was to investigate the major factors that affect the academic achievements of female students in primary schools of four sampled primary schools/Arjo primary school, Andinnet, Arbi-gebeya and Wayu Warke primary schools. Female students academic achievements show an upgrading from time to time, but still the rise is delicate when contrast to males. The finding identified the five broad categories, Family related, school related, socio-economic related, cultural related were the major factors that affect the academic achievements of females’ education. The common issues household responsibilities, low awareness of parents towards females education, parents financial problems, parents education level, lack of school facilities, school distance, the nature of teacher student relationship, the study behavior female students implement, teaching method teachers use, early marriage, less avails of role models are the main reasons for squat academic achievements of female students on education. To alleviate these upward parents awareness to wards the benefit of educating females, motivating female students, providing financial supports for the poor female students, improving school facilities and protecting female from abduction and early marriage/from any harmful traditions were recommended.
The economic loss of timber caused by over stumps and defects is an essential issue in forest science but study regarding this is very limited in Nepal. Thus, this research was objectively conducted to assess the volume of timber loss and associated monetary loss caused by over stumps and defects in logs and reason behind this. Three community forests namely Deurali, Jay Durga and Raniphanta community forests were selected for this research. Total enumeration was done so 375 stumps and 224 defected logs were measured from15 March to 15 April, 2019. The height and diameter at the butt end were measured using simple tape and D-tape respectively. Additionally, the length and diameter of defects in log was recorded. Total thirty key informant interviews and three focus group discussions were organized to assess the major causes of over stumps and defects. The timber volume loss caused by over stumps was calculated using cylindrical volume formula and volume loss caused by defect was calculated using formula, i.e. gross volume - net volume. The price of wood was collected from community forest to calculate the monetary value of timber loss. The principal component analysis was applied to assess the major causes of over stumps and defect in log. The highest total volume loss was recorded around 15.217 m3 (28.49%) caused by over stumps and out of this, it was 53.41 m3 timber loss in Deurali community forest. The loss due to defects in tree was ranged from 128.57 to 284.21 m3 in the community forests. The monetary value of loss caused by over stump was US$ 6971.14 of Shorea robusta in Deurali community forest and it was US$ 8100.52 because of defect. The principal component analysis showed that use of saw and axe for felling the trees in the community forests was considered as highest factor of over stump and diseases and over mature trees were key factors of wood defect. The research will be useful for policy makers and scientific community to monitor the timber loss.
Background: The role of the pharmaceutical industry in a country such as Nigeria in the provision of safe, high quality and efficacious pharmaceutical products to meet the healthcare need of the populace, cannot be over-emphasized. This study was undertaken to critically look at the issues affecting Medicines’ Security in Nigeria. Methods: A self-completion questionnaire was used for data collection. The questionnaire was administered to participants of an Industry event in September 2017. Data collected were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science. Results: A total number of 800 questionnaires were administered to the participants and 529 of the questionnaires were included for analysis. Male participants (58.6%) were more than female participants, all age groups were well represented and more than a third of the respondents had first degree as their minimum qualification. Majority of the respondents (91.3%) indicated that Ministry of Health and its agencies were key to protecting the pharmaceutical sector, while slightly less of that proportion (79.1%) indicated that they patronized Nigeria pharmaceutical products. Almost all the participants (91.7%) supported the need for the local pharmaceutical industry to have access to sustainable funding and other incentives. A similar proportion (89.6%) of the respondents indicated that the local pharmaceutical industry should be prioritized in policy making and implementation. A significant proportion of the study participants (82.3%) indicated that access to medicines in Nigeria is a security issue. Conclusion: To ensure Medicines’ Security and attain medicines self-sufficiency in Nigeria, radical policies must therefore be put in place, together with enabling good business and industrial environment by the government in order to protect, promote and grow the local pharmaceutical industry in Nigeria.
Agricultural Informatics is a valuable domain in the field of interdisciplinary sciences. This is responsible for the applications of Information Technology, Computing and similar technologies into the agricultural activities. This is the combination of Agricultural Science and Information Sciences. The field due to technological nature is much closed with the Agricultural Engineering or Agricultural Technology. There are many allied and similar nomenclature of the fields but all of these are primarily responsible for the same purpose. The field is rapidly increasing in recent past and most practiced in the developed nation. However, in developing countries as well Agricultural Informatics becomes an emerging field of practice and growing rapidly. Agricultural Informatics is growing both in pre and post agricultural activity. This branch is considered as branch of Information Sciences & Technology due to its technological applications in the field of agriculture and allied areas. Information Sciences are the broadest field within the allied branches and growing rapidly. Agricultural Informatics educational programs have started in recent past in different level and stream of education viz. science and technology. However within the broad periphery of Information Sciences it could be offered in other streams and under the wide variety of Information Sciences. This paper is broad and interdisciplinary in nature and deals with the aspects of the Information Sciences and Technology including features, nature, scope and also the potentialities in respect of Agricultural Informatics.
Agriculture has been the major source of livelihood in Nigeria, primarily because the environment is favorable for Agricultural practice. On the basis of climate, topography and vegetation the country is divided into five agricultural zones, namely Dry sub humid, Sub-humid, very humid and swamp/flood. Subsistence agriculture formed the major system of farming in the olden days which provide food crops for human consumption, while surplus are transported to the local markets for sale. Subsistence agriculture also forms the basis upon which all other system of farming are built. Hence, this paper examines the problems and prospects of subsistence agriculture in Ibarapa East local Government Area of Oyo State. Ten farming centres were used as samples in the area. Questionnaires were used to collect relevant data. Percentage and T-test distribution techniques were used to analyze the data. The findings show that there is low agricultural production in the study area as a result of problems such as shortage of fund, land tenure system, inadequate transportation system among others.
One of the most burning issues that have dominated the public sphere in Nigeria and other oil exporting countries is the covid-19 pandemic and its attendant challenges. This pandemic is a shock on real economic fundamentals and frictionless of the market. It introduces a barrier between the market forces with strong complementary feedbacks in the real economy. The absence of precise vaccine or medication for the virus has necessitated the adoption of several precautionary measures with the aim of containing its wide spread. Critical among which are the travel restrictions, lockdown measures as well as social and physical distancing. These measures have detrimental effect on the demand and price of oil in the international market. In view of that, this study evaluates the social and economic impact of covid-19 in Nigeria taking into cognisance the effect on certain critical macroeconomic indicators. The study adopted an analytical approach to supplement the much ongoing documentations on the subject matter. Result shows that virtually all essential macroeconomic indicators are grossly affected with tax, remittances and employment exhibiting severe consequences. Also, uncertainty, panics and lockdown measures are key to motivating higher decrease in world demand. The supply disruptions and huge death toll generates a heightened uncertainty and panic for household and business. This uncertainty and panic leads to drop in consumption and investment thereby causing a decrease in corporate cash flows and triggered firm’s bankruptcy. Also, lay-off and exiting firms produce higher unemployment while labour income decreased significantly. Since it entails a large amount of government expenditure especially in the health sector which is required to contain the spread of the virus, there is needs for government to diversify its revenue sources and thus drop over dependency on the oil remittance. Furthermore, there is a need to support the financial system to avoid the health crisis becoming a financial crisis in the long-run.
The outbreak and subsequent spread of COVID-19 to the West African sub-region have brought significant changes to the different aspects of our lives and grounded educational and socio-political and economic activities of ECOWAS member states. The pandemic has exposed the poor state of the health systems and shortage in medical supplies and protective gears to cope with the health emergency. In response, strict restrictions were put in place to curb the spread of the virus and these have drastically affected peoples’ lifestyles. However, there has been huge increase in the use of technology in business, education, religion and other activities as people adapt to the changing times in the sub-region. It is the argument of this paper that things cannot return to the way they were before the pandemic, but West African states must strategically plan for the Post COVID-19 era to survive the massive wave of unemployment, socio-economic meltdown and changes in lifestyle. The paper concluded that while the fight against the virus in the sub-region was not collective, post-pandemic recovery must be coordinated, strategically plannedamong member states. It was recommended that the governments should be flexible enough to retain the use of ICT and technology alongside the conventional ways of doing things in the post-pandemic era.
Undoubtedly, religion is one of the main factors that increasingly contribute to the shaping of international relations. As it was in the European middle ages, religion and geopolitics have always had ties of one sort or another. Imperialism and nationalist doctrines have found purpose and justification in religious differences and, religious zealotry was functioned to be both cause and consequence of the concentration of state power and the rivalries among existing competitors. The involvement of numerous religious groups and movements in the political scene led the situation to be extremely complicated. The purpose of this article is to see to what extent religion as a soft power has a role in forming international politics. Also, to discuss the role the superpowers and regional powers play in dealing with the question of religious issues. With an argument that these issues including religious conflicts are led by international and regional powers which function these groups in a proxy war to be part of their rivalry overpower, and to achieve their national interests through their foreign policies at the cost of considerable environmental degradation and a massive death toll of people.
This study examines and explicates the lexico-semantic parameters, which Joseph Edoki deploys to convey his themes in The Upward Path, his second novel. Edoki is a contemporary Nigerian novelist who is preoccupied with the socio-political problems in Africa with the hope of a brighter future. The novel is the story of Mr. Gaga, a Rhwandan American PhD student, on a fact finding mission in Savannah, an African country, for his Thesis entitled ‘’ Why Africa is Underdeveloped’’. For failing to portray Africa in line with the negative views about the continent in his proposal, Gaga’s supervisor recalls him back to America in anger. But in defense of his conviction and research findings about Africa, Gaga remains in Savannah to complete his Thesis. This study is of significance because as a linguistic study, it will serve as a springboard to future researches in the language of African literature. Moreover, the good governance, which Edoki presents in Savannah, the fictional country, in which the novel under study is set, is a blue print for the development of Africa.
The increasing involvement of women in the advancement of insurgency in Nigeria has become a thing of great worry. The question often asked is as to whether their involvement is induced or free-willed. The concept of consent is on different layers and one would imagine the extent of consent given before they become members of the sect or culprits. The different ways women have been used to perpetrate the activities of Boko Haram ranges from threats to abuse, Indoctrination to hypnotism and many others. Due to the subtle and unsuspecting nature of women, they form a good strategy for members of the sect. However, their involvement is not evidence against them as they face situations that almost deny them the opportunity to choose whether or not to subscribe to the forceful approach used by Boko Haram insurgents!.
The art of using language for public expression in order to persuade target audience to support development initiatives is a key reason for graphic communication. This requires communication actors particularly, the graphic encoder to know salient input and output variables of communication for effective mediation. However, the prevalence ignorance of these variables, often results in ineffective media production that is counter-productive to development. Therefore, this paper focused on production of practical rhetoric in graphic language for development programmes. The paper employed the critical-historical-analytic examination and content analysis methods. It introduced the reader to the need for practical rhetoric in visual communication. Furthermore, it highlighted the salient input and output variables that the graphic communication actor need be conversant with in order to produce visual rhetoric, using the McGuire’s Communication/persuasion Matrix. And it exemplified graphic media that result from application or neglect of the knowledge of the variables. The paper found that consideration of the variables afforded production of effective rhetoric in graphic language. The paper ended with the need for graphic encoders to internalize knowledge of the input and output variables and utilize it during the process of media production to generate visual rhetoric with desired effect.
The Niger delta of Nigeria has been besieged by a lot of crises, which have posed serious security risks to the region. This has adversely and seriously affected not only the region, but Nigeria in general. The processes of crude oil extraction in the Niger delta have resulted in ecological degradation and oil pollutions, thereby doing a lot of damages to the farmlands and fishing waters of the people, whose major occupations are farming and fishing. Petroleum, the main source of Nigeria’s revenue is obtained in the Niger delta. Yet, Deltans are confronted with a lot of problems; they are impoverished, exploited, neglected and marginalized despite the economic value of the region to the Nigerian economy. No serious or commensurate efforts are made by the government or the multinational oil companies operating in the region to compensate the people for the losses they suffer through oil pollutions. This has resulted in a lot of protests and violence, culminating in the social unrest in the region. To this effect, there have been reactions to the crises in diverse ways. Though such efforts have yielded little dividends, the crises have persisted. Niger delta deserves priority attention in terms of human and infrastructural developments. In the literary circle, some Nigerian literary artists have expressed concern over the issue with a view to creating awareness on the seriousness of the crises, and advancing suggestions that will proffer permanent solutions to the problems. This paper examines and expounds how Helon Habila deploys the mood system as a language tool in his novel, Oil on Water, to address the Niger Delta crises. He advances suggestions to put an end to the crises in order to restore peace, and enhance sustainable development in Nigeria.
The paper seeks to analyze the larger concept of multiculturalism and to further determine its role and importance in modern Georgia. The agenda of cultural diversity is often subject to criticism, accused for being responsible for endangering modern societies. Such statements will be critically analyzed within the context of the increasing far-right sentiments among Georgians, as reflected in a what can be described as a radical march which took place in Tbilisi on the 14th of July 2017, creating risks of further deteriorating of the situation in the country, given the general macro-economic instability of Georgia and undermining democracy. This paper concludes that it is very important to establish an innovative new model of Georgian citizenship, and one which will address all the accumulated misunderstandings now existing in society. It is expected that this will enable multiculturalism to be perceived more appropriately, i.e. as a unifying ideology rather than a dividing force.
The purpose of the research is to examine importance of Georgia’s current relations with its neighboring Russia and Azerbaijan and to estimate risks that deterioration of these relations can bring to Georgia’s economy. Of particular interest is to understand who stands behind the tensions happened in Georgia in the run-up to the tourist season of 2019 or at least to figure out possible motives behind the events. Interdependence of the states is analyzed through historical review of their relations and estimation of their current mutual interests. Considering risks and aspirations of the sides in the tensions, the motives behind are suggested. The data received depicts that none of these tensions were initiated by Georgia following its interests, on the contrary, its ruling party’s most visible achievement had been the ability to maintain positive and beneficial relations with both Russia and Azerbaijan. Thus, the Georgian government considered to be a victim in this case. The paper concludes that Georgian government is unable to react on provocations in a timely fashion due to absence of agreement in the ruling party and being quite fragile for outside forces that try to influence the country’s political processes. Unless Georgia manages to build more interdependent or less dependent relations with superpowers, it will be unable to avoid repetition of such manipulations.
This study explores a potential reposition of the triple helix model of university-industry-government relations in terms of micro-level analysis. In this direction, we evaluate the development of helix theory over time, by reviewing the relevant literature divided into three successive phases: the phase of theoretical foundation, the phase of conceptual expansion, and the phase of recent developments and systematic attempts of implementation. In this conceptual study, we estimate that a refocused triple helix model in terms of local development, by placing at the center of analysis the “living organization’s” dynamics in Stra.Tech.Man terms (synthesis of Strategy-Technology-Management), can be a possible direction of analytical enrichment.
Globalization and liberalization puts the emphasis on exports as a technique in which developing countries like the Kingdom of Eswatini should adopt to expand their markets beyond their domestic market. For the developing countries to be international competitive in the global markets they need to minimize their production cost particularly on the products that are being exported. The production of most of the exported commodities needs lot energy from oil; hence there has been tremendous increase of oil and its by-product worldwide. The current oil demand for most countries in the world is not met because of insufficient reserves for crude oil in most countries. The Kingdom of Eswatini does not have an oil reserves or oil-refining facilities hence they depends on imports from the neighbouring states in order to meet the consumption requirement. The oil price shocks in the global market normally have adversely effects on various macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate since the oil is traded in US dollars. Oil and exchange rate are considered to be essential factors for domestic economies for developing countries like the Kingdom of Eswatini. The purpose of the study is to investigate the causal relationship between Lilangeni-dollar exchange rate and crude oil price by using the Toda-Yamamota approach. The study used daily time series from January 01st, 2005 to April 30th, 2018 of nominal exchange rate of Lilangeni (Eswatini currency [SZL]) vis-à-vis United States dollar (USD) data as well as the global price of Brent crude oil data that was used as a proxy for the Global crude oil price. The results from the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test revealed that there is a unidirectional causality from the global oil price to the Eswatini’s nominal exchange rate (SZL/USD). Hence the study concluded that the global crude oil price influence the Eswatini’s nominal exchange rate. Therefore the study recommends that in the formulating of Eswatini’s exchange rate policy emphases should be on the global oil prices in order not to misalign the Eswatini’s currency.
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Crime Surge and Institutional Weakness: are They Associated? Evidence from a Conflict Country
1. International Journal of World Policy
and Development Studies
ISSN(e): 2415-2331, ISSN(p): 2415-5241
Vol. 3, No. 1, pp: 1-9, 2017
URL: http://arpgweb.com/?ic=journal&journal=11&info=aims
1
Academic Research Publishing Group
Crime Surge and Institutional Weakness: are They
Associated? Evidence from a Conflict Country
Ibrahim A. Onour Professor of Financial Econometrics School of Management Studies University of Khartoum, Sudan
1. Introduction
Crime rate is considered important indicator of society’s well-being and a measure of quality of living or
dwelling in specific area in a town or a region. Increase in crime rate in certain area has sever negative impact on
welfare of inhabitants in that area and divert scarce resources from support to productive activities to crime
combating requirements. Understanding the nature and dynamics of crime requires thorough knowledge of its
interdependence across different locations in the country. To do so, we need first to identify the major crimes in all
eighteen states in the country, and then cluster or classify crimes based on similarities and commonalities in different
states in the country, and finally identify their relationship with major indicators of institutional weakness in the
country.
To address these issues we employed multivariate statistical methods including, profile analysis, principal
component & factor analysis, and cluster analysis. The remaining parts of this research structured as follows: section
two explores international evidences of crimes institutional links, section three includes some basic statistical
analysis of crimes in Sudan, section four presents the methodology of the research, section five discusses the
empirical findings, the final section concludes the study.
2. Institutional Links
There is increasing concern of association of crime trend with indicators of state weakness and institutional
corruption. In this respect World bank indexing of state weakness relate weak states to countries that fail to secure
their populations from violent conflict and crime surge. On a similar direction Rotberg (2002) indicates weak states
fail to provide services that reduce domestic threats to the national order and social structure, as arms and drug
trafficking become more rampant. Also indicated that failed states exhibit flawed institutions in which the judiciary
lack independence and citizens lose trust and confidence on court system for redress or remedy, especially against
the state. The Tenth United Nations Survey of Crime Trends and
Operations of Criminal Justice Systems, revealed that in Mexico high levels of corruption in the police,
judiciary have contributed greatly to the crime increase, as drug trafficking, assault and theft make up the vast
majority of crimes in that country. Given such evidences in this research our primary goal to investigate institutional
links with the major four crimes, theft, murder, illegal drugs, and prostitution in Sudan. Since there is lack of reliable
statistics on judiciary and police corruption in this country, we relied on statistical indicators that may reveal
institutional weakness. These indicators include passport-related crimes, custom & duty crimes, fire arms &
Abstract: This paper investigates the degree of association between major four crimes in Sudan, including
illegal drug trafficking, murder, theft, and prostitution, with indicators of institutional weakness that include
surge in other four crimes: duty & customs, forgery, passport related, and firearms & ammunition crimes. These
later four crimes has been considered indicators of institutional weakness because upswing in these crimes is a
reflection of corruption or negligence, or incompetence of institutional performance in the country. The
canonical correlation test result indicates there is a very high and significant association between the major four
crimes and the indicators of institutional weakness. This finding implies institutional weakness can nurture crime
surge in the country. Cluster analysis indicates the type of crimes in conflict states of Darfor region are featured
in the rest of the country except in the capital state, Khartoum which represent a separate cluster on its own.
Cluster analysis also indicate murder crime is connected with prostitution; and theft crime is associated with
firearms & ammunition crimes; custom & duty crimes connected with passport -related and illegal drugs crimes.
However, illegal drugs crime is connected with murder, theft, and prostitution crimes.
Keywords: Crimes; Multivariate analysis; Sudan.
2. International Journal of World Policy and Development Studies, 2017, 3(1): 1-9
2
ammunition crimes, and forging crimes. We stand on strong belief that surge in these four crimes in any country is a
reflection of weakness in law enforcement institutions particularly the judiciary and police departments.
3. Data Analysis
Crime data in this research has been collected from the annual report of crime statistics for the year 2016,
published by the Interior Ministry of Sudan.
Crime statistics summary in table (1) indicates across all eighteen states of the country Khartoum state is taking
the largest share of illegal drugs trafficking, while other states such as Senar, South Kordofan, and Gedarif also rank
above the national average level in illegal drug crime rates. Regarding the theft crime, Kharoum and AlGazira
records the highest rates in the country. Murder crime is exclusively higher in Khartoum, and conflict states of South
Kordofan, West Kordofan and three Darfor states (North, South, West). However, Central Darfor state record the
lowest crime rates in all 18 states in the country, and the other remaining eight states in the country are relatively
safe as their crime levels recorded below the national average level1
.
Table (2) indicates there is significant upswing of theft and drug trafficking in 2015, as theft crime increased by
11% on national level, and about 14% in Khartoum state alone, whereas drug trafficking increased by about 7% on
national level, and by 27% in Khartoum state during the same year. Similar conclusion can be deduced from figure
(1) too.
Table-1. Crime distribution map
Name of state Drugs Theft Murder Adultery
National
average 418 5520 101 184
Khartoum
Northern
Nile River
White Nile
Blue Nile
AlGazira
Senar
North Kordofan
West Kordofan
South Kordofan
North Darfor
South Darfor
West Darfor
Central Darfor
East Darfor
Red Sea
Gadarif
Kassala
( )=above national average level; ( )=highest level; ( )=lowest level
Table-2. Crime statistics
Type of crime 2013 2014 2015 % change (2014-2015)
Murder - national level
- Khartoum state
1429
273
2036
247
1817
249
-10.6
0.8
Theft - national level
- Khartoum state
71768
32691
89502
44747
99361
50995
11
13.9
Adultery - national level
- Khartoum state
3829
1467
3207
1172
3322
1164
3.5
-0.6
Illegal drugs -national level
- Khartoum state
7490
3006
6946
2264
7419
2879
6.8
27.1
1
Some government officials in Central Darfour state believe that the low crime rate statistics reported in this state is due to
reluctance of citizens to report crimes since a majority of them are internally displaced refugees who lacks confidence and trust in
the local police and security.
3. International Journal of World Policy and Development Studies, 2017, 3(1): 1-9
3
4. Methodology
4.1. Principal Component Analysis
Principal component analysis deals with a single sample of n observation vectors that form a
group of points in a multi-dimensional space. Principal component analysis can be applied to any distribution of y,
but it can be easier to visualize geometrically if the group of points is ellipsoidal. If the variables are
correlated the cluster of points is not oriented parallel to any of the axes represented by .
Principal component analysis explores the natural axes of the swarm of points with origin at the mean vector of
ys. This is done by translating the origin to the mean vector of ys and then rotating the axes. The axes can be rotated
by multiplying each y by an orthogonal matrix A:
Zi =Ayi such that A is orthogonal A’A=I and the distance to the origin is unchanged:
( ) ( )
Thus, an orthogonal matrix transforms yi to a point zi that is the same distance from the origin, and the axes are
effectively rotated.
Finding the axes of the ellipsoid is equivalent to finding the orthogonal matrix A that rotates the axes to line up
to the natural extensions of the swarm of points so that the new variables (principal components) z1, z2,……zp in
Z=Ay are uncorrelated.
4.2. Canonical Correlation
Canonical correlation investigates linear association between two sets of variables:
( ) ( ). For simplification purposes we denote each of these two sets
as y and x. It is important to realize that canonical correlation is an extension of multiple correlation, which is the
correlation between one y and several x’s. The canonical correlation, however, is the correlation between multiple
dependent variables (y matrix) and multiple independent variables (x matrix). Canonical correlation analysis is often
a useful complement to a multivariate regression analysis.
In the case of several y’s and several x’s the covariance structure associated with two sub-vectors y and x can
be partitioned as:
( )
Where syy is the pxp sample covariance matrix of the y’s, syx is the pxq matrix of the sample covariances between
the y’s and the x’s, and sxx is the qxq sample covariance matrix of the x’s.
The best overall measure of association is the largest squared canonical correlation (maximum eigenvalue)
.
The canonical correlations can also be obtained from the partitioned correlation matrix of the y’s and x’s,
( *
Where Ryy is the pxp sample correlation matrix of the y’s, Ryx is the pxq matrix of sample correlations between the
y’s and the x’s, and Rxx is the qxq sample correlation matrix of the x’s.
4.2.1. Tests of Significance
Under H0 ( the null-hypothesis) there is no (linear) relationship between the y’s and the x’s, and H0 is
equivalent to the statement that all canonical correlations are non-significant. The significance of
can be tested by Wilk’s test:
| |
| || |
| |
| || |
Which is distributed as . We reject H 0 if . Critical values are available in table A.9 in
Rencher (2002).
>. Also is expressible in terms of the squared canonical correlations:
∏( )
If the parameters exceed the range of critical values for Wilks’ critical values, we can use the Chi-square
approximation as:
[ ( )]
Which approximately distributed as Chi-square with pq degrees of freedom. We reject H 0 if
4.3. Cluster Analysis
Cluster analysis deals with identification of the observation vectors that are similar and group them into clusters.
As a result, to capture similarities between groups cluster analysis use the distance between each pair of observations
in the data. Since a distance increases as two units become further apart, distance is used as a measure of
dissimilarity between groups. A common distance function is the Euclidean distance between two vectors:
4. International Journal of World Policy and Development Studies, 2017, 3(1): 1-9
4
( ) ( )
defined as:
( ) √( ) ( ) √∑( )
To adjust for change in variances and covariances among variables we can use the standardized distance measure:
( ) √( ) ( )
Where S is the sample covariance matrix.
The most common cluster technique, is hierarchical method that include single linkage (nearest neighbor) and
other clustering algorithms (see Rencher (2002), for details). Hierarchical clustering algorithm involve a sequential
process, that merge a cluster into another cluster in each step sequentially. As a result, in the hierarchical algorithm
the number of clusters decreases until we end up with one single cluster.
4.4. Profile Analysis
Profile analysis is useful when y is ( ) and the variables in y are measured in the same units with
approximately equal variances, and the objective is to compare the means . The pattern connecting
several means is called a profile, and some times the primary purpose can be to compare between several sample
means.
In the single sample case to compare the means , the basic hypothesis is that the profile is level or
flat:
For a multivariate approach that allow for correlation between variables, we first express the null-hypothesis as
p-1 comparisons,
( ) ( *
Which can be expressed as where
( )
When is true, ̅ is ( ) and
( ̅ ) ( ) ( ̅) ( ̅ ) ( ) ( ̅)
Is distributed as . We reject if . The dimension p-1 correspond to the number of
rows of C.
In the case of two-sample profile analysis instead of the hypothesis that , we test the hypothesis
for j=2, 3,…..p, or
( ) ( )
Which can be written as using the contrast matrix
( )
From the two sample, and we obtain ̅ ̅ as estimates of .
Then the null-hypothesis test:
̅ ̅ is ( ) and
(̅ ̅ ) ( ) (̅ ̅ ) is distributed as . Note that the dimension p-1 is the
number of rows of C.
5. International Journal of World Policy and Development Studies, 2017, 3(1): 1-9
5
5. Empirical Findings
To select the most important variables from the crime data we employed the principal component analysis to
classify the data into major components, and then in the second stage we select the most important variable from
each component. Results of the eigen values and corresponding eigen vectors of correlation matrix in table (3)
indicate the cumulative percentage of eigen values suggest the largest four eigen values explain about 98.9% of total
variability of the crime data. As a result, our selection process of the number of components conclude four major
components form the data set. Given variables selection process is based on the largest (absolute value) coefficient
values from each component (eigen vector) the variables of illegal drugs, theft, murder, and forger are the variables
to be included in the analysis. The canonical correlation analysis attempt to assess the degree of association between
the major four crimes, illegal drugs, murder, theft, and adultery, with institutional weakness indicators which include
increase in other four crimes: duty & customs, forger, passport, and firearms & ammunition crimes. These four
crimes has been taken as indicators of institutional weakness because any surge in these crimes is a reflection of
corruption or negligence, or incompetence (or the three together) in institutional performance. The canonical
correlation results indicate there is a very high association between the two set of the data, which is about 0.78 and
highly significant according to Wilks’ test result.This finding imply institutional weakness can nurture crime surge in
the country. Profile analysis reveal there is a significant increase in crime rate between the years 2014-2015, as
indicated by the statistic test result. Cluster analysis in table (4), indicate the type of crimes in Darfor region are
featured in the rest of the country except in the capital state, Khartoum which represent a separate cluster on its own.
Cluster analysis summary in figure (1) indicate murder crime is connected with adultery; and theft crime is
associated with fire arms & ammunition crimes. Custom & duty crimes connected with passport and illegal drugs
crimes. However, illegal drugs crime is associated with a number of crimes including murder, theft, and adultery.
Table-3. Principal components
Eigen
values
7.06 1.14 0.63 0.067 0.055
Cumulative
% of eigen
values
0.78 0.91 0.98 0.98 0.99
Eigen
vectors
v1 v2 v3 v4 v5
-0.35 -0.07 0.15 0.83 -0.11
-0.37 -0.02 -0.01 -0.11 0.18
-0.19 0.52 -0.81 0.06 -0.07
-0.37 -0.04 -0.01 -0.06 -0.05
-0.05 -0.83 -0.54 0.03 -0.02
-0.37 -0.01 0.01 -0.06 0.33
-0.36 -0.08 0.09 -0.50 -0.01
-0.37 -0.07 0.01 0.04 0.46
-0.36 -0.06 0.08 -0.14 -0.78
Table-4. Cluster Groups
Clusters Groups
C1 East Darfor, West Darfor
C2 Blue Nile, East Darfor, West Darfor
C3 Kassala, North Darfor
C4 River Nile, Kassala, North Darfor
C5 Red Sea, Gadarif
C6 South Kordofan, Blue Nile, Eas Darfor, West Darfor
C7 North Kordofan, Red Sea Gadarif
C8 West Kordofan, North Kordofan, Red Sea, Gadarif
C9 Northern, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, East Darfor, West Darfor
C10 River Nile, Kassala, Red Sea, Northern, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, East Darfor, West Darfor
C11 Senar, River Nile, Kassala, Red Sea, Northern, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, East Darfor, West Darfor
C12 White Nile, West Kordofan, North Kordofan, Red Sea, Gadarif
C13 Gazira, South Darfor
C14 White Nile, West Kordofan, North Kordofan, Red Sea, Gadarif, C11
C15 Central Darfor, C14
C16 Khartoum
5.1. Profile Analysis
T-Square test for the null hypothesis of equal means:
T2
-61.03939 1059.545 -14.63202 -7.915809
6. International Journal of World Policy and Development Studies, 2017, 3(1): 1-9
6
Plot-1. Profile analysis: two sample means
Figure-1. Dendrogram applied to cluster analysis findings
Core crimes:
X1= illegal drugs
X2= theft and robbery
X3=murder
X4= adultery
Institutional weakness indicators:
X5= forger crimes
X6= duty and custom crimes
X7= fire arms and ammunition crimes
X8= passport crimes
6. Concluding Remarks
To capture the pattern and trend of crime in the country the current research uses a number of multivariate
statistical methods, including cluster analysis, principal component analysis, profile analysis, and canonical
correlation analysis. The data employed in the research include crime data for all 18 states in the country during the
years 2014 - 2013. The variables under investigation include four major crimes, and other four crimes intended to
reflect institutional weakness. The first group include the crimes of murder, illegal drugs, adultery, and theft, while
the second group include passport, tariffs & custom, weapons & ammunition, and medical drugs & pharmaceutical
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2014
2013
7. International Journal of World Policy and Development Studies, 2017, 3(1): 1-9
7
crimes. Our findings indicate profile analysis reveal the upswing in the major crime rates during 2014 – 2015 is
statistically significant, and the canonical correlation analysis show there is strong significant association between
the major four crimes and the institutional weakness indicators. Cluster analysis indicate the type of crimes in Darfor
region are featured in the rest of the country except in the capital state, Khartoum which represent a separate cluster.
Cluster analysis also indicate murder crime is connected with adultery; and theft crime is associated with firearms &
ammunition crimes. Custom & duty crimes connected with passport and illegal drugs crimes. However, illegal drugs
crime is associated with a number of crimes including murder, theft, and adultery.
References
Rencher, A. (2002). Methods of multivariate analysis. 2 edn: Wiley Interscience publisher.
Rotberg, R. (2002). The New nature of nation-state failure. Washington Quarterly, 25: 85–96.
Appendix A
Principal components:
EIGENVALUES
7.0606 1.1402 0.63243 0.67473E-01 0.55147E-01 0.34194E-01
0.50164E-02 0.34215E-02 0.15001E-02
SUM OF EIGENVALUES = 9.0000
CUMULATIVE PERCENTAGE OF EIGENVALUES
0.78452 0.91120 0.98147 0.98897 0.99510 0.99890
0.99945 0.99983 1.0000
EIGENVECTORS
VECTOR 1
-0.36221 -0.37514 -0.19291 -0.37496 0.05284 -0.37403
-0.36670 -0.37203 -0.36701
VECTOR 2
-0.07363 -0.02513 0.52903 -0.04776 -0.83283 -0.01983
-0.08752 -0.07547 -0.06665
VECTOR 3
0.15639 -0.00623 -0.81222 0.00523 -0.54712 0.01433
0.09795 0.00088 0.08148
VECTOR 4
0.83537 -0.11266 0.06161 -0.06787 0.03478 -0.06008
-0.50377 0.04089 -0.14419
VECTOR 5
-0.11033 0.18243 -0.07739 -0.05440 -0.02795 0.33372
-0.00466 0.46092 -0.78802
VECTOR 6
-0.35253 -0.01334 -0.09895 0.22463 -0.02531 0.30156
-0.73470 0.27134 0.33214
VECTOR 7
-0.04059 0.62864 -0.01081 -0.57098 -0.00958 -0.37476
-0.12257 0.28493 0.20071
VECTOR 8
-0.04154 -0.39617 0.02674 0.25915 -0.03816 -0.59416
0.10347 0.63874 0.01631
VECTOR 9
-0.03560 0.51020 -0.05293 0.63710 -0.00967 -0.40014
-0.17015 -0.28103 -0.24817