"If the opposite of pro is con, then the opposite of progress must be the Congress”, says a popular joke about the divided government in the US two-party presidential regime. Divided government occurs when different political parties control different branches of government. By this arithmetic definition, however, divided government almost always takes place in multiparty presidential regimes, given that the party of the president rarely obtains solely the majority of seats in Congress. In order to govern and pass legislation, a minority president has to build and sustain post-electoral coalitions in multiparty settings. The received wisdom on multiparty presidential regime is that constitutional and agenda-setting powers and presidential preferences would be the key determinants for a successful minority government. In addition to those aspects, however, this paper claims that the degree of congruence between the preference of the presidential coalition and the preference of the floor of the Congress is the crucial ingredient. That is, regardless of presidential preferences or characteristics, the higher the preference incongruence between the president’s coalition and the floor, the more difficult would be the coalition management and the higher the probability that the Congress would work as the opposite of progress. It is, in fact, the equivalent functional of divided government in multiparty presidential settings. This paper explores conceptually and empirically the effect of the distance of preferences between the coalition and the floor in the multiparty presidential regimes in Latin America.
Date: 2016
Authors:
Pereira, Carlos
Melo, Marcus André B. C. de
Bertholini, Frederico
Americanpoliticalsystemppt 110919181530-phpapp01Wayne Williams
How Federalism works to solve political problems in America. Public policy, collective dilemmas, types of government institutions, authoritarianism, oligarchies, one party states,
Oligarchy rules democracy: Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Int...Sadanand Patwardhan
Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics – which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic Elite Domination, and two types of interest group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism – offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented. A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. This paper reports on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues. Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism. The study is by Martin Gilens, Princeton University and Benjamin I. Page, Northwestern University.
Americanpoliticalsystemppt 110919181530-phpapp01Wayne Williams
How Federalism works to solve political problems in America. Public policy, collective dilemmas, types of government institutions, authoritarianism, oligarchies, one party states,
Oligarchy rules democracy: Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Int...Sadanand Patwardhan
Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics – which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic Elite Domination, and two types of interest group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism – offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented. A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. This paper reports on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues. Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism. The study is by Martin Gilens, Princeton University and Benjamin I. Page, Northwestern University.
Chapter 12: Governments, Systems and Regimes
What is the difference between governments, political systems and regimes?
What is the purpose of classifying systems of government?
On what basis have, and should, regimes be classified?
What are the major regimes of the modern world?
Has western liberal democracy triumphed worldwide?
Classifying the various forms of government has been one of the principal concerns of political analysis through the ages. This process can be traced back to the fourth century BCE, when Aristotle made the first recorded attempt to describe the political regimes then in existence, using terms such as 'democracy', 'oligarchy' and 'tyranny' that are still commonly employed today. From the eighteenth century onwards, governments were increasingly classified as monarchies or republics, or as autocratic or constitutional regimes. During the twentieth century, these distinctions were further sharpened. The 'three worlds' classification of political systems, which was particularly fashionable during the Cold War period, created an image of world politics dominated by a struggle between democracy and totalitarianism. However in the light of modern developments, such as the collapse of communism, the rise of East Asia, and the emergence of political Islam, all such classifications appear outdated. Nevertheless, it is not entirely clear what these shifts mean. Some interpret them as indications of the triumph of western liberal democracy; others see evidence of the modern world becoming politically more diffuse and fragmented.
Regimes have been classified on a variety of bases. 'Classical' typologies, stemming from Aristotle, concentrated on constitutional arrangements and institutional structures, while the 'three worlds' approach highlighted material and ideological differences between the systems found in 'first world' capitalist, 'second world' communist and 'third world' developing states
Chapter 12: Governments, Systems and Regimes
What is the difference between governments, political systems and regimes?
What is the purpose of classifying systems of government?
On what basis have, and should, regimes be classified?
What are the major regimes of the modern world?
Has western liberal democracy triumphed worldwide?
Classifying the various forms of government has been one of the principal concerns of political analysis through the ages. This process can be traced back to the fourth century BCE, when Aristotle made the first recorded attempt to describe the political regimes then in existence, using terms such as 'democracy', 'oligarchy' and 'tyranny' that are still commonly employed today. From the eighteenth century onwards, governments were increasingly classified as monarchies or republics, or as autocratic or constitutional regimes. During the twentieth century, these distinctions were further sharpened. The 'three worlds' classification of political systems, which was particularly fashionable during the Cold War period, created an image of world politics dominated by a struggle between democracy and totalitarianism. However in the light of modern developments, such as the collapse of communism, the rise of East Asia, and the emergence of political Islam, all such classifications appear outdated. Nevertheless, it is not entirely clear what these shifts mean. Some interpret them as indications of the triumph of western liberal democracy; others see evidence of the modern world becoming politically more diffuse and fragmented.
Regimes have been classified on a variety of bases. 'Classical' typologies, stemming from Aristotle, concentrated on constitutional arrangements and institutional structures, while the 'three worlds' approach highlighted material and ideological differences between the systems found in 'first world' capitalist, 'second world' communist and 'third world' developing states
Federalism: A Research Draft
Federalism Essay
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Purpose Of Federalism
Federalism And The Other Federalism
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What are the chances of your country winning the 2018 World Cup?
FGV's mathematical model predicts that Brazil has the greatest chances of winning.
http://fgv.br/emap/copa-2018
Interval observer for uncertain time-varying SIR-SI model of vector-borne dis...FGV Brazil
The issue of state estimation is considered for an SIR-SI model describing a vector-borne disease such as dengue fever, with seasonal variations and uncertainties in the transmission rates. Assuming continuous measurement of the number of new infectives in the host population per unit time, a class of interval observers with estimate-dependent gain is constructed, and asymptotic error bounds are provided. The synthesis method is based on the search for a common linear Lyapunov function for monotone systems representing the evolution of the estimation errors.
Date: 2017
Authors:
Soledad Aronna, Maria
Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre
Ensuring successful introduction of Wolbachia in natural populations of Aedes...FGV Brazil
The control of the spread of dengue fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in populations of the vector Aedes aegypti, is presently one of the most promising tools for eliminating dengue, in the absence of an efficient vaccine. The success of this operation requires locally careful planning to determine the adequate number of individuals carrying the wolbachia parasite that need to be introduced into the natural population. The introduced mosquitoes are expected to eventually replace the Wolbachia-free population and guarantee permanent protection against the transmission of dengue to human. In this study, we propose and analyze a model describing the fundamental aspects of the competition between mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia and mosquitoes free of the parasite. We then use feedback control techniques to devise an introduction protocol which is proved to guarantee that the population converges to a stable equilibrium where the totality of mosquitoes carry Wolbachia.
Date: 2015-03-19
Authors:
Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre
Soledad Aronna, Maria
Coelho, Flávio Codeço
Silva, Moacyr da
The resource curse reloaded: revisiting the Dutch disease with economic compl...FGV Brazil
This paper shows that the Dutch disease can be more formally characterised as low economic complexity using ECI-type indicators; there is a solid and robust inverse relationship between exports concentrating on natural resources and economic complexity as measured by complexity indicators for a database of 122 countries from 1963 to 2013. In a large majority of cases, oil answers for shares in excess of 50% of exports. In addition to empirical panel analysis, we address case studies concerned with Indonesia and Nigeria and introduce a brief review of the theoretical literature on the topic. Indonesia is considered in the literature as a good example in avoiding the negative effects of the Dutch disease, whereas Nigeria is taken as a bad example in terms of institutions and policies adopted during the seventies and eighties. The empirical results show that complexity analysis and Big Data may offer significant contributions to the still-current debate surrounding the Dutch disease.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de
Gala, Paulo
The Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA) was right: scale-free comple...FGV Brazil
The main purpose of this paper is to apply big-data and scale-free complex network techniques to the study of world trade, with a specific focus on the investigation of ECLA and structuralist ideas. A secondary objective is to illustrate the potentialities of the use of the new science of complex networks in economics, in what has been recently referred to as an econophysics research agenda. We work with a trade network of 101 countries and 762 products (SITC-4) which generated 1,756,224 trade links in 2013. The empirical results based on network analysis and computational methods reported here point in the direction of what ECLA economists used to argue; countries with higher income per capita concentrate in producing and exporting manufactured and complex goods at the center of the trade network; countries with lower income per capita specialize in producing and exporting non-complex commodities at the network’s periphery.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Gala, Paulo
Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de
Freitas, Elton
Cost of equity estimation for the Brazilian market: a test of the Goldman Sac...FGV Brazil
As an approach to determining the degree of integration of the Brazilian economy, this paper seeks to test the explanatory power of the Goldman Sachs Model for the expected returns by a foreign investor in the Brazilian market during the past eleven years (2004-2014). Using data for the stocks of 57 of the most actively traded firms at the BM&FBovespa, it begins by testing directly the degree of integration of the Brazilian economy during this period, in an attempt to better understand the context in which the model has been used. In sequence, in an indirect test of the Goldman Sachs model, the risk factor betas (market risk and country risk) of the sample stocks were estimated and a panel regression of expected stock returns on these betas was performed. It was found that country risk is not a statistically significant explanation of expected returns, indicating that it is being added in an ad hoc fashion by market practitioners to their cost of equity calculations. Thus, although there is evidence of a positive and significant relationship between systematic risk and return, the results for country risk demonstrate that the Goldman Sachs Model was not a satisfactory explanation of expected returns in the Brazilian market in the past eleven years, leading us to question the validity of its application in practice. By adding a size premium factor to the model, there is evidence of a negative and significant relationship between companies’ size and return, although country risk remains not satisfactory to explain stock expected returns.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Guanais, Luiz Felipe Poli
Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto
Sheng, Hsia Hua
A dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with forward-looking indicators for the yield c...FGV Brazil
This paper proposes a Factor-Augmented Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (FADNS) model to predict the yield curve in the US that relies on a large data set of weekly financial and macroeconomic variables. The FADNS model significantly improves interest rate forecasts relative to the extant models in the literature. For longer horizons, it beats autoregressive alternatives, with a reduction in mean absolute error of up to 40%. For shorter horizons, it offers a good challenge to autoregressive forecasting models, outperforming them for the 7- and 10-year yields. The out-of-sample analysis shows that the good performance comes mostly from the forward-looking nature of the variables we employ. Including them reduces the mean absolute error in 5 basis points on average with respect to models that reflect only past macroeconomic events.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Vieira, Fausto José Araújo
Chague, Fernando Daniel
Fernandes, Marcelo
Improving on daily measures of price discoveryFGV Brazil
We formulate a continuous-time price discovery model in which the price discovery measure varies (stochastically) at daily frequency. We estimate daily measures of price discovery using a kernel-based OLS estimator instead of running separate daily VECM regressions as standard in the literature. We show that our estimator is not only consistent, but also outperforms the standard daily VECM in finite samples. We illustrate our theoretical findings by studying the price discovery process of 10 actively traded stocks in the U.S. from 2007 to 2013.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Dias, Gustavo Fruet
Fernandes, Marcelo
Scherrer, Cristina Mabel
Disentangling the effect of private and public cash flows on firm valueFGV Brazil
This paper presents a simple model for dual-class stock shares, in which common shareholders receive both public and private cash flows (i.e. dividends and any private benefit of holding voting rights) and preferred shareholders only receive public cash flows (i.e. dividends). The dual-class premium is driven not only by the firm's ability to generate cash flows, but also by voting rights. We isolate these two effects in order to identify the role of voting rights on equity-holders' wealth. In particular, we employ a cointegrated VAR model to retrieve the impact of the voting rights value on cash flow rights. We finnd a negative relation between the value of the voting right and the preferred shareholders' wealth for Brazilian cross- listed firms. In addition, we examine the connection between the voting right value and market and firm specific risks.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Autor
Scherrer, Cristina Mabel
Fernandes, Marcelo
Mandatory IFRS adoption in Brazil and firm valueFGV Brazil
Using diff-in-diff approaches and the propensity-score matching, this study focuses on firm-level Tobin´s q and Market-to-book outcomes for Brazilian firms who in 2008 were required by Law 11.638/07 to adopt the full International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by 2010. Brazil’s tier-system of corporate governance standards for publicly-traded firms, its uniquely wholesale adoption of the IFRS, and the previously considerable gap between its national GAAP and IFRS readily lend the scenario to research, which thus far finds small or inconsistent results when focused on IFRS adoption-related outcomes in Europe and China. However, while these features recommend the transitioned Brazilian equity market to analysis, additional unique features, such as its small population size and its limited historical data -- of varied quality – increase the challenge in selecting a suitable empirical methodology. Using quarterly data from 2006-2011, control firms in the Nivel II and Novo Mercado tiers of Bovespa which already complied with higher quality accounting standards are matched to treatment firms in the Regular and Nivel I tiers with similar averaged values of size and sector. Our results suggest that there is a positive impact on Tobin´s q and Market-to-book for firms who are forced to adopt IFRS in Brazil. We can observe the same results when we consider all variables winsorized at 5% level. We also find a positive relation between the firm value (measured by Tobin´s q and Market-to-book) and net income. Firms with higher net income are more likely to have higher Tobin´s q and Market-tobook. In an opposite way, we find a negative relation among firm value, size, Ebit-to-sales, sales growth and PPE-to-sales. All results are statistically significant at 1% level. '
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira
Gallucci Netto, Humberto
Silva, Vinícius Augusto Brunassi
Dotcom bubble and underpricing: conjectures and evidenceFGV Brazil
We provide conjectures for what caused the price spiral and the high underpricing of the dotcom bubble of 1999–2000. We raise two conjectures for the price spiral. First, given the uncertainty about the growth opportunities generated by the new technologies and their spillover effects across technology industries, investors saw the inflow of a large number of high-growth firms as a sign of high growth rates for the market as a whole. Second, investors interpreted the wave of highly underpriced IPOs as an opportunity to obtain gains by investing in newly public companies. The underpricing resulted from the emergence a large cohort of firms racing for market leadership. Fundamentals pricing at the IPO was part of their strategy. We provide evidence for our conjectures. We show that returns on NASDAQ composite index are explained by the flow of high-growth (or highly underpriced) IPOs; the high underpricing can be fully explained by firms’ characteristics and strategic goals. We also show that, contrary to alternatives explanations, underpricing was not associated with top underwriting, there was no deterioration of issuers’ quality, and top underwriters and analysts became more selective.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Autor
Carvalho, Antonio Gledson de
Pinheiro, Roberto Benjamin
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira
Contingent judicial deference: theory and application to usury lawsFGV Brazil
Legislation that seems unreasonable to courts is less likely to be followed. Building on this premise, we propose a model and obtain two main results. First, the enactment of legislation prohibiting something raises the probability that courts will allow related things not expressly forbidden. In particular, the imposition of an interest rate ceiling can make it more likely that courts will validate contracts with interest rates below the legislated cap. Second, legal uncertainty is greater with legislation that commands little deference from courts than with legislation that commands none. We discuss examples of effects of legislated prohibitions (and, in particular, usury laws) that are consistent with the model.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Guimarães, Bernardo
Salama, Bruno Meyerhof
Education quality and returns to schooling: evidence from migrants in BrazilFGV Brazil
We provide a new education quality index for states within a developing country using 2010 Brazilian data. This measure is constructed based on the notion that the financial returns obtained from an additional year of schooling can be
seen as being derived from the value that market forces assign to this education. We use migrant data to estimate returns to schooling of individuals who studied in different states but who work in the same labor market. We find very heterogeneous educational qualities across states: the poorest Brazilian region presents education quality levels that are approximately equal to one-third of the average of all other regions, a gap three times larger than the one suggested by standardized test scores. We compare our index with standardized test scores, educational outcome variables, and public expenditure per schooling stage at the state level, producing new evidence related to education in a large developing country. We conduct an education quality-adjusted development accounting exercise for Brazilian states and find that human capital accounts for 26%-31% of output per worker differences. Adjusting for quality increases human capital’s explanatory power by 60%.
Date: 2017-02
Authors:
Brotherhood, Luiz Mário
Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti
Santos, Cézar Augusto Ramos
On October 31st and November 1st, 2016, the Center for Regulation and Infrastructure from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV CERI) organized a two-day workshop discussion in collaboration with the World Bank and ABRACE. The event gathered regulators, government representatives, academics, operators, financial institutions and investors. The debate focused on the main challenges faced by the current restructuring process of the Brazilian gas industry. This document presents the main points discussed during the debates.
Date: 2017-01
Authors:
Vazquez, Miguel
Amorim, Lívia
Dutra, Joísa Campanher
The impact of government equity investment on internationalization: the case ...FGV Brazil
We examine the impact of government equity ownership on the degree of internationalization of emerging market firms. Our analysis of 173 Brazilian publicly traded firms from 2002 to 2011 shows that the higher the equity held by the state through the state investment bank and the pension funds of SOEs and privatized SOEs, the higher the firm’s degree of internationalization. Firms in which the government shared control with families, and with both families and foreigners, had a higher degree of internationalization. Our findings underline the importance of the institutional context in explaining the internationalization of Brazilian firms.
Date: 2016
Author:
Sheng, Hsia Hua
Techno-government networks: Actor-Network Theory in electronic government res...FGV Brazil
The Actor-Network Theory (ANT) is a theoretical approach for the study of controversies associated with scientific discoveries and technological innovations through the networks of actors involved in such actions. This approach has generated studies in Information Systems (IS) since 1990, however few studies have examined the use of this approach in the e-government area. Thus, this paper aims to broaden the theoretical approaches on e-government, by presenting ANT as a theoretical framework for e-government studies via published empirical work. For this reason, the historical background of ANT is described, duly listing its theoretical and methodological premises. In addition to this, one presented ANT-based e-government works, in order to illustrate how ANT can be applied in empirical studies in this knowledge area.
Date: 2016
Authors:
Fornazin, Marcelo
Joia, Luiz Antonio
Condemning corruption while condoning inefficiency: an experimental investiga...FGV Brazil
This article reports results from an economic experiment that investigates to what extent voters punish corruption and waste in elections. While both are responsible for a loss of welfare for voters, they are not necessarily perceived as equally immoral. The empirical literature in political agency has not yet dealt with these two dimensions that determine voters’ choices. Our results suggest that morality and norms are indeed crucial for a superior voting equilibrium in systems with heterogeneous politicians: while corruption is always punished, self-interest alone – in the absence of norms – leads to the acceptance and perpetuation of waste and social losses.
Date: 2016
Authors:
Arvate, Paulo Roberto
Souza, Sergio Mittlaender Leme de
A Strategic Approach: GenAI in EducationPeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
Welcome to TechSoup New Member Orientation and Q&A (May 2024).pdfTechSoup
In this webinar you will learn how your organization can access TechSoup's wide variety of product discount and donation programs. From hardware to software, we'll give you a tour of the tools available to help your nonprofit with productivity, collaboration, financial management, donor tracking, security, and more.
Coalition management under divided/unified government
1. Coalition Management Under Divided/Unified
Government
Carlos Pereira, Marcus Melo, Frederico Bertholini
August 2016
Abstract
“If the opposite of pro is con, then the opposite of progress must be the Congress,” says a popular joke about
the divided government in the US two-party presidential regime. Divided government occurs when different
political parties control different branches of government. By this arithmetic definition, however, divided
government almost always takes place in multiparty presidential regimes, given that the party of the president
rarely obtains solely the majority of seats in Congress. In order to govern and pass legislation, a minority
president has to build and sustain post-electoral coalitions in multiparty settings. The received wisdom on
multiparty presidential regime is that constitutional and agenda-setting powers and presidential preferences
would be the key determinants for a successful minority government. In addition to those aspects, however,
this paper claims that the degree of congruence between the preference of the presidential coalition and the
preference of the floor of the Congress is the crucial ingredient. That is, regardless of presidential preferences
or characteristics, the higher the preference incongruence between the president’s coalition and the floor, the
more difficult would be the coalition management and the higher the probability that the Congress would
work as the opposite of progress. It is, in fact, the equivalent functional of divided government in multiparty
presidential settings. This paper explores conceptually and empirically the effect of the distance of preferences
between the coalition and the floor in the multiparty presidential regimes in Latin America.
1 Towards a new definition of Divided Government
When one thinks about divided government the first image that comes to mind is a minority US president,
either in just one or in both legislative houses. To the extent that the US is the paradigm case of a presidential
regime, it is not surprising the prevalence of this “arithmetical” (Elgie 2001) understanding of divided
government. In an early general treatment of divided governments, Laver and Shepsle (1991) argued that
minority governments in parliamentary systems, in which the executive is controlled by parties that, between
them, control less than a legislative majority, was the closest analogue to divided government in the US. In
each case, the executive needs to seek support in the legislature beyond its own partisan base. These authors
claim that the “constitutional roots of divided governments” are distinct in parliamentary and presidential
systems: divided governments are negotiated in parliamentary regimes whereas they are mandated electorally
in separation-of-powers regimes”. Against the explicit claim in the title of this paper - that “America is not
exceptional” -, the implicit assumption in that work is the notion of presidentialism in a typical majoritarian
presidential system, such as the US. However, approximately a third of presidential systems in Latin America
(Chaisty, Cheeseman, Power, 2012) – and similar rates can be found elsewhere – are multiparty presidential
regimes.
This earlier discussion of divided governments conflates system of government and electoral rules. Admittedly
the focus of the discussion is the different incentives across regime types to form coalitions – an assumption
shared in classic works such as Linz (1994). Presidential systems were held to be inimical to coalition
formation, and hence were prone to stalemate. Shugart and Carey (1992) refined this argument and attributed
the conflict prone nature of such systems to specific features of some presidential systems, including the
strength of the constitutional powers of presidents, their partisan powers, the timing of presidential and
legislative elections. Minority status, however, remained a key element in the discussion. Minority presidents
1
2. faced governability problems because they have weak incentives to engage in coalition bargaining, which
ultimately resulted from constitutional design (Alemán and Tsebelis 2011; Figueiredo et al. 2012).
The criterion for distinguishing governments types was essentially arithmetical: the size of the presidential
coalition and the resulting minority or majority status. This is in fact a very straightforward arithmetical
definition. That is, if the president’s political party enjoys majority of seats in Congress the government
it is called unified; and it is called divided government otherwise. As Elgie (2001: 3) wrote: “In the US,
therefore, divided government is commonly understood as the situation where no single party controls both
the executive and legislative branches of government simultaneously, or, alternatively, where the president’s
party fails to control a majority in at least one house of the legislature. In this sense, the concept concerns
nothing more than a simple description of a certain arithmetic reality and is quite uncontroversial.”
Based on this definition, it has been possible to identify periods of unified and divided governments and, as a
consequence, this concept has been very useful to understand various political and governing features as well
as policy dynamics of the two-party presidential environment of the US majoritarian electoral system. The
main assumption is that divided government is synonymous with gridlock, legislative paralysis, and all sort of
conflicts between the executive and Congress. In fact, there is a established literature investigating both the
determinants and the consequences of divided government, which challenged the received wisdom. A key
finding in that literature is that unified government is not a prerequisite for the approval of significant public
policy (Mayhew 2005).
This arithmetical definition of divided government, nevertheless, fails to address the issue in multiparty
presidential regimes. In this institutional environment almost always elected presidents does not enjoy
majority of seats in the legislature. Presidents elected in multiparty, sometimes hyper-representative systems
with significant party fragmentation in the legislature, like in Brazil, often face a minority condition. That is,
divided government would necessarily be the norm. Therefore, presidents must build post-electoral coalitions
if they wish to enjoy majority status.
Figueiredo et al (2009) have found that during the more than a quarter-century from 1979 through 2006,
Latin America was host only two countries (Costa Rica and Mexico) that had single-party governments the
whole time. Six countries (Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Panama) had coalition governments
throughout that same period, while four others (Argentina, Paraguay, Venezuela, and Uruguay) had coalition
governments at least some of the time (Amorim Neto 2006; Alemán and Tsebelis 2011). In later works,
authors have extended the notion of divided government from the minority status of presidents to include
minority coalition governments (Figueiredo et al 2012; Chaisty et al 2016).
The phenomenon of multiparty coalition presidentialism is not restricted to Latin America. It is now the modal
form of democratic governance in Africa, Asia, and post-communist Europe as well (Chaisty, Cheeseman,
Power, 2012). Indonesia, for instance, has also a multiparty presidential regime since the fall of Suharto’s
authoritarian New Order and the transition to democracy in 1999.
The unexplored high frequency of elected minority presidents in multiparty presidential regimes and the
consequent outcome of post-electoral divided coalition governments has led to a research agenda aimed at
exploring the puzzle of minority coalitions as an equilibrium (Figueiredo et al 2009; Chaisty et al 2016).
Conceptually speaking the arithmetical understanding of divided government seems useless to explain this
phenomenon in multiparty presidential settings given that almost always the president’s party fails to control,
say, at least one house of the legislature. That is, divided government has been increasingly the norm.
The lack of partisan majority backing the president in one or both legislative houses does not necessarily mean,
however, that the opposition party must automatically control the legislature in a multiparty presidential
regime. Instead, the very often outcome is to observe a coalition post-electoral majority supporting the
president, usually composed by more than one political party. Presidents in multiparty presidential institutional
contexts, on the one hand, tend to be strong and capable of attracting partisan support. On the other hand,
many parties get motivated to work as satellites of the president as an opportunity to extract political and
financial benefits in exchange for political support in the legislature.
In a multiparty environment, therefore, an arithmetical definition of divided government in presidential
regimes can be understood to comprise not simply the situations where a party opposed to the president
2
3. actually controls at least one house of the legislature, but also the more general cases where the majority
comprises more than one party in coalition supporting the president in Congress.
Shugart (1995), in a comparative assessment of divided presidential government, argues that situations of
opposition-party majorities (divided government) are much less common outside the United States. He
distinguishes three types of governments in presidential regimes: unified, divided and no-majority government.
Shugart makes that distinction to clearly differentiate the arithmetic sense of a pure divided government,
when a legislative majority is held by a party or pre-electoral coalition different from the president’s party,
from a situation in which no party hold a majority in one or both houses of the legislature.
This is indeed a conceptual advancement, especially because the idea of divided government could be applicable
to other institutional environments beyond the US two-party presidential regime. However, it is still based in
a numerical criterion, which also reduces its scope and applicability.
Elgie (2001) proposes a behavioral interpretation of divided government. For him divided government
corresponds to the situation where there is conflict between the executive and the legislative branches of
government whatever the support for the executive in the legislature. Similar to the arithmetical definition,
the behavioral interpretation of divided government has its roots in the study of the political system of the
US, but Elgie claims that it also finds a clear counterpart in studies of parliamentary and semi-presidential
regimes as well, especially in coalition government.
This behavioral interpretation, however, mistakenly characterizes coalition government as a form of divided
government ignoring thus that in many occasions the preferences of the governing coalition could exactly
match the preferences of the legislature. If it is the case, rather than interpreting coalition government as
a divided government, it could be a unified government instead. In order to deal with these peculiarities,
especially in multiparty presidential regimes, a non-arithmetical and a non-behavioral definition of divided
government is required.
The extant empirical literature on divided governments have focused on a range of issues: from the executive’s
strategies in contexts of lack of majority (Cox and Kernell 2001; Amorim Neto 2006; Cheibub and Limongi
2010) to its determinants, with a focus on the puzzle of why majority coalition governments fail to emerge
(Elgie 2001; Figueiredo et al 2012; Chaisty 2016)). This paper aims at contributing with this conceptual
debate by proposing an alternative theoretical interpretation of divided/unified government in multiparty
presidential regimes. We claim that the degree of congruence between the preference of the presidential
coalition and the preference of the floor of the Congress is the crucial ingredient. That is, regardless of
presidential preferences or characteristics, the higher the preference incongruence between the president’s
coalition and the floor, the more difficult would be the coalition management and the higher the probability
that the Congress would work as the opposite of progress. It is, in fact, the functional equivalent of divided
government in multiparty presidential settings.
To be precise, when the median preference of the presidential coalition matches the median preference of the
floor of the Congress we consider a unified government. On the other hand, when the median preferences of
the floor and the coalition are incongruent we have a divided government. Cheibub et al (2004), Chaisty
et al (2016), and Figueiredo et al (2012) have investigated to what extent ideological congruence affect the
incentives for the existence of both single party minority governments and its majority variant. Our approach
considers a different question, namely, what the consequences of congruence are, and more importantly how
congruence can be used analytically as a criterion for identifying governments.
Keeping this innovative interpretation in mind, the paper is organized as follows: in the next session we
comparative identify the incidence of divided government in a sample of Latin American countries. Next
we particularly analyze the effects of divided government in Brazil with regard to cost of governing and
legislative success of presidential initiatives in Congress. The final session concludes with the main finds and
with a broad discussion about this new research agenda.
3
4. 2 Empirical aproximation to a new definition of Divided Govern-
ment
The definition of divided government proposed in this paper may shed light over unexploited cleavages in
literature. In this section we will go over an empirical description of how much Latin American governments
were divided during the last 3 decades or so. We used parties data from the Database of Political Institutions
2015 dataset (Cruz, Keefer and Scartascini 2016) and ideology scores from several different sources, such as
Baker and Greene (2011) and Saiegh (2015). Ideology scores were re-scaled to a 1 to 10 scale, where 1 is
extreme left and 10 is extreme right. Our definition of divided government consists in a continuous measure,
not a binary condition. In this sense the challenge posed here is to set a ex-ante threshold for a government
to be considered as divided. We set the space between -1 and 1, which is 10% of the ideological scale as the
unified government interval. All the countries-years within the grey shaded area are considered to be unified
under this arbitrary definition. Although We expect that further tests, comprising a different set of variables,
can help in defining a more accurate threshold.
arg
arg arg arg
arg
arg
arg
arg
argbol bol
bol
bol bol
chl
chl
col col
col
cri
cri
cri
cri
cri criecu
ecu
ecu
ecu
ecu
ecu
ecu
slv
slv
slv
slv
slv
slv slv
slv
slv
gtmgtm gtm gtm
gtm
hnd
mex mex
mex mex
mex
mex mex mex
nic nic
nic
nic
pan
pan
pan
pan
pan
pry
per
per
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ury ury ury
ven
ven
ven
ven
ven
−6
−4
−2
0
2
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
year
Ideologicaldifferences
a
a
Minority
Majority
Figure 1: Majority vs Divided Government in Latin America
Countries above the y-axis zero line are countries where coalitions ideology scores are higher than the congress
ideology scores, so they are more to the right side of the spectrum. Argentinian coalitions tend to position
themselves to the right. Chilean coalitions tend to position themselves to the left of congress.
There is a lot of variation both between and within countries, however, most presidents were able to keep
the preferences of their coalitions very close to the preferences of the floor. Ecuador and El Salvador were
cases in which preferences were consistently divergent. After a period of unified government, Mexico recently
moved a to a more diverse environment.
This empirical approach define as unified some governments that classic literature would (mis)identify as
minority governments as in the DPI dataset. This is precisely the case of countries plotted in red letters that
4
5. are inside the grey shaded area (Figure 1). Panama in 2009 and 2013 or Colombia in 2002 and 2014, for
instance.
3 Divided Government in Brazil
Brazil was intentionally left out of Figure 1 since this country will be the case study. The main reason
why we test our theory with Brazil is the ample availability of data with considerable granularity. Two
complementary hypotheses will be tested, one concerning Legislative Support and another one encompassing
Governing Costs. The idea is that a divided government will decrease the probability of legislative success
and will make the executive-legislative relations more expensive to manage. The data on Brazil comes from
the Coalition Management in Brazil dataset (Bertholini, 2016), ideology scores were taken from Power and
Zucco (2012). Monthly data covers October 1988 to December 2014 and was applied quarterly.
(Figure 2)
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
Jan 1990 Jan 1995 Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015
IdeologicalDifference
Cardoso 1
Cardoso 2
Collor
Itamar
Lula 1
Lula 2
Rousseff 1
Sarney
Figure 2: Ideological differences Coalition-Congress in Brazil
The empirical approach of this paper opens space for two ways of measuring divided government. The first
one consists in subtracting the average congress ideology from the average coalition ideology. This will
generate a variable called Ideological Difference Coalition-Congress (ideo_dist_coal_con) which can vary
from -9 - when the coalition is on the extreme left of the political spectrum and the floor is on the extreme
right of this theoretical continuum - to 9 - when the very opposite occur. The second divided government
measure, that we will call Ideological Difference Coalition-Congress (abs_dist_coal_con), is the absolute
of the difference. This second measure goes from 0 - a situation of perfect symmetry - to 9 - a status of
high asymmetry. While the first measure is affected by the direction of ideological incongruence, the second
measure does not indicate if a government is to the left or to the right of congress average position.
5
6. 3.1 Legislative support Models
We will first estimate a model to test if the definition of divided go proposed here has any relation with
Legislative Support. The hypothesis is that a divided government will face difficulties in passing legislation.
Interestingly, our preferred estimations contain only the Ideological Difference variable, which is, legislative
support in Brazil appears to have a strong ideological bias, and the congress tend to punish what they consider
to be a left wing coalition. We control for several aspects: Agenda Size, Average Congress Ideology, Effective
Number of Parties, GDP and Popularity. As expected, the size of the agenda is correlated to Legislative
Support, the higher the support, the bigger the agenda. Other controls play no significant role to the model.
Table 1: Regression models with Newey-West correction for autocorrelation - Legislative Support
Legislative Support
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Ideo Diff Coalition-Congress −4.445∗∗∗
−4.758∗∗∗
−4.647∗∗∗
−5.163∗∗∗
−5.231∗∗∗
−4.931∗∗∗
(1.043) (1.055) (1.082) (1.423) (1.595) (1.149)
Agenda Size 0.257∗
0.281∗∗
0.258∗∗
0.234∗
0.243∗
(0.150) (0.139) (0.119) (0.132) (0.138)
Average Congress Ideology −1.528 −3.414 −3.250 −3.311
(3.632) (2.740) (3.000) (3.411)
Effective Number of Parties −1.098 0.718 0.803
(1.415) (2.703) (2.881)
GDP −2.772 −4.012
(2.233) (2.973)
Popularity 0.052
(0.131)
Constant 59.847∗∗∗
55.525∗∗∗
63.448∗∗∗
82.727∗∗∗
67.807∗∗∗
66.742∗∗∗
(1.696) (3.348) (21.623) (18.865) (25.043) (24.083)
Observations 105 105 105 105 103 103
Adjusted R2
0.231 0.258 0.257 0.259 0.279 0.282
Note: ∗
p<0.1; ∗∗
p<0.05; ∗∗∗
p<0.01
3.2 Governing Costs Models
To estimate the effect of a more divided government on the resources the executive has to spend in order to
govern, we used the Governing Costs Index, developed by Bertholini and Pereira (2015). The elaboration of
a reliable aggregate measure for comparing the cost of governing among different presidents and at different
moments in time is an empirical task that we have met in constructing the Governing Costs Index (GCI).
The GCI is composed by three complementary measures of presidential costs associated with coalition
management: 1. the number of cabinet positions (and state secretaries with the status of a minister) that a
president decides to include in the administration on a monthly basis; 2. the natural log of the total amount
of budgetary resources allocated to each cabinet position on a monthly basis; and 3. the natural log of the
total amount of legislators’ individual amendments to the annual budget (i.e., pork) appropriated by the
government on a monthly basis.
The technical procedure used to calculate the GCI was a principal component analysis (PCA). The PCA
analytic solution is produced through decomposition of the correlation matrix by identifying the first principal
component or the linear combination of the variables that explains the larger part of the total variance.
The GCI is a formative indicator, meaning that causality flows from the measurable variables to the latent
variable, and the latter is the result of a linear composition from the first. Formative indexes are a plausible
approach for combining a number of indicators to form a construct without any previous assumptions as to
6
7. the patterns of inter-correlations among these items. Although the reflexive view dominates the psychological
and management sciences, the formative view is common in economics and sociology. The construction of
formative indicators implies a decision on the weights to be assigned to each variable in its composition. One
possible solution is to assign weights based on consolidated theory or expert opinion. Another option is to
let the variance matrix set these weights. In the absence of consolidated theory, we chose to assign weights
for each variable in the index based on its contribution to explaining the total variance, which is the factor
loading of this variable in the composition of factors.
As independent variables we now substitute the ideological difference measure by an ideological distance
measure. Here, our preferred specifications contain only the distance and not the difference between coalition
and congress. Other controls were kept the same, except for GDP, since the GCI already incorporates a GDP
correction in its calculation. We expect that the higher the ideological distance between governing coalition
and congress the higher will be GCI. Controls are expected to follow the same intuition of the Legislative
Support model, however in the opposite direction.
Results (Table 2) indicate the feasibility of our main hypothesis, with the strongly significant variables being
the ideological distance between congress, the average ideology of the congress and the president’s popularity;
the was also strongly significant. However, a more robust model is necessary in order to deal with the time
series characteristics of the GCI.
Table 2: Regression models with Newey-West correction for autocorrelation - Governing Costs
Governing Costs Index
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Ideo Dist Coalition-Congress 0.105∗∗∗
0.062∗∗
0.063∗∗
0.075∗∗∗
0.077∗∗∗
0.085∗∗∗
(0.034) (0.024) (0.027) (0.015) (0.011) (0.011)
Ideo Dist Coalition-Congress (lag1) 0.045∗∗
0.043∗∗∗
0.021∗
0.031∗
0.019
(0.019) (0.015) (0.011) (0.018) (0.017)
Agenda Size −0.0004 0.001 0.001 0.001
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Average Congress Ideology −0.071∗∗∗
−0.123∗∗∗
−0.129∗∗∗
(0.021) (0.045) (0.032)
Effective Number of Parties −0.027 −0.007
(0.020) (0.015)
Popularity −0.001∗∗∗
(0.0004)
Constant 0.170∗∗∗
0.168∗∗
0.175∗∗∗
0.557∗∗∗
1.061∗∗∗
0.962∗∗∗
(0.065) (0.071) (0.061) (0.098) (0.390) (0.277)
Observations 73 73 73 73 73 73
Adjusted R2
0.640 0.647 0.643 0.800 0.807 0.862
Note: ∗
p<0.1; ∗∗
p<0.05; ∗∗∗
p<0.01
3.3 Governing Costs - Bayesian Times Series Structural Models
When it comes to time series, these models are still useful, but they fail to address issues such as trends or
seasonality. In such case, ARIMA modelling has an advantage to explain data in many contexts. To combine
both approaches, Bayesian Structural Time Series is a tool described in Scott & Varian (2013) that uses
space state methods (Harvey, 1988) to provide a complete model of the time series, while maintaining the
spike-and-slab idea in the regression components.
This method yielded an analogous result to the linear regression models. The space state model used as a base
for developing the results is a local linear trend model with quarterly seasonality (Figure 3). Probabilities
7
9. higher than 50% indicate a strong chance of having this variable as a good predictor. Based on this model,
the two variables with higher probability of being selected are the ideological distance between coalition
and congress (abs_dist_coal_con) and the average ideology of congressmen (av_cong_ideo). The effective
number of parties was selected with probability larger than 50%, is also being considered relevant by this
model. President popularity, although previously pointed out as significant was not selected on this approach.
The results strongly sustain our hypothesis that divided governments generate more governing costs. Model
predictors also present a very good fit with our dependent variable, as the graphic analysis suggest (Figure 4)
which adds robustness to our initial conclusion.
4 Discussion
To be written
5 References
Alemán, Eduardo and George Tsebelis (2011) “Political parties and government coalitions in the Americas”,
Journal of Politics in Latin America, 3, 1, 3-28.
Amorim Neto, Octavio (2006) The presidential calculus: executive policy-making and cabinet formation in
the Americas”, Comparative Political Studies, 39, 4, 415-40
Baker, Andy, and Kenneth F. Greene. 2011. “The Latin American Left’s Mandate: Free-Market Policies and
Issue Voting in New Democracies.” World Politics 63(1): 43-77.
Bertholini, Frederico (2016), “Coalition Management in Brazil”, Mendeley Data, v1 http://dx.doi.org/10.
17632/k7wtdzcwvr.1
Chaisty, Paul, Nic Cheeseman and Timothy J Power (2014), “Rethinking the presidentialism debates:
coalitional politics in cross regional perspective”, Democratization 21, n.1, 72-94.
Cheibub, José A, Adam Przeworski and Sebastián Saiegh (2004) “Government coalitions and legislative
success under under presidentialism and parliamentarism”, British Journal of Political Science, 34, 565-587.
Cheibub, Jose Anônio and Fernando Limongi (2010), From conflict to coordination: perspectivrs on the study
of executive legislative relations, Revista Ibero American de Estudos Legislativos, 1, 1, 38-53.
Cox, Gary W., and Samuel Kernell (1991), ‘Conclusion’, in Gary W. Cox and Samuel Kernell (eds.),
Conclusions, in The Politics of Divided Government, Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1-21. 239-249.
Cruz, Cesi, Philip Keefer and Carlos Scartascini (2016). “Database of Political Institutions Codebook, 2015
Update (DPI2015).” Inter-American Development Bank. Updated version of Thorsten Beck, George Clarke,
Alberto Groff, Philip Keefer, and Patrick Walsh, 2001. “New tools in comparative political economy: The
Database of Political Institutions.” 15:1, 165-176 (September), World Bank Economic Review.
Elgie, Robert (2001), “What is divided government”, Divided government in comparative perspective, Oxford,
Oxford university Press.
Elgie, Robert (2001), editor, Divided Government in Comparative Perspective, Oxford, Oxford University
Press.
Figueiredo, Argelina, Julio Canello and Marcelo Vieira (2012), “Governos minoritários no presidencialismo
latino-americano, determinantes político e institucionais”, Dados 55, 4, pp 839-875.
Figueiredo Argelina, Deise L. Salles, and Marcelo M. Vieira (2009) Political and Institutional Determinants
of Executive’s Success in Latin America.” Brazilian Political Science Review, 3 (2): 155-71.
Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge university
press.
9
10. Larry Diamond (2010) “Indonesia’s Place in Global Democracy,” in Edward Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner,
eds., Problems of Democratization in Indonesia: Elections, Institutions and Society (Singapore: ISEAS, 2010),
51–121. Laver, Michael and Kenneth Shepsle (1991), “Divided government: America is not exceptional”,
Governance, pp. 250-269.
Linz, Juan (1994) “Presidential or parliamentary democracy: does it make a difference?”, Juan Linz and
Arturo Valenzuela eds, in The future of presidential democracy: the case of Latin America, Baltimore, Johns
Hopkins University Press, 3-87.
Mayhew, David (2005), Divided we govern, New Haven, Yale University Press. Shugart, Matthew S (1995),
“The electoral cycle and institutional sources of divided presidential government”, American political Science
Review, 89, 2, 327-343.
Power, T. J., & Zucco, C. (2012). Elite preferences in a consolidating democracy: the Brazilian legislative
surveys, 1990–2009. Latin American Politics and Society, 54(4), 1-27.
Saiegh, S. M. (2015). Using joint scaling methods to study ideology and representation: Evidence from Latin
America. Political Analysis.
Scott, S. L., & Varian, H. R. (2014). Predicting the present with Bayesian structural time series. International
Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, 5(1-2), 4-23.
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3-27.
Annex
Descriptives
Table 3:
Statistic N Mean St. Dev. Min Max
Legislative Support 105 61.985 10.801 36.881 81.227
Governing Costs Index 73 0.292 0.103 0.070 0.443
Ideo Dist Coalition-Congress 106 1.037 0.749 0.050 2.983
Ideo Diff Coalition-Congress 106 −0.469 1.186 −2.983 2.367
Agenda Size 106 16.148 7.879 3.667 36.667
Average Congress Ideology 106 5.402 0.603 4.249 6.287
Effective Number of Parties 106 8.110 1.693 2.755 11.456
Popularity 106 13.253 32.685 −62.056 75.167
10
11. Data Correlation
x
Density
leg_supp
0.1 0.3
0.56*** 0.41***
−3 0 2
−0.49*** 0.092
4.5 5.5
−0.13 0.19
.
0e+00 4e+11
0.20 *
4070
0.28**
0.10.4
x
Density
GCI_trend_GDP
0.80*** −0.79*** −0.07 −0.53*** 0.64*** 0.51*** 0.27 *
x
Density
abs_dist_coal_con
−0.67*** −0.071 −0.11 0.33*** 0.26**
0.02.5
0.20 *
−30
x
Density
ideo_dist_coal_con
0.17
.
0.18
.
−0.49*** −0.54*** −0.57***
x
Density
agenda_size
0.23 * −0.27** −0.25 *
525
−0.23 *
4.56.0
x
Density
av_cong_ideol
−0.69*** −0.52*** −0.33***
x
Density
enpp
0.87***
48
0.63***
0e+00
x
Density
gdp_m_real
0.78***
40 60 80 0.0 1.5 3.0 5 20 35 4 8 −60 0 60
−6040
x
Density
pres_pop
BSTS model Residuals and decomposition
Time
distribution
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
−2−1012
11