The first climate and weather presentation I\'ve given for 2012. Went over well, especially since I\'ve included video and improved the narrative (thanks to Stephan and John and their Debunking Handbook for that).
The year 2014 tied with 2010 as the warmest year on record for the last century. The melting of Greenland, mountain glaciers, and thermal expansion is raising sea levels four times faster than in 1900. Sea level rises of 2 to 6 feet are predicted by the end of the century. Flood highs from hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were ~ 10 feet.
The article “Treading Water” in the February 2015 "National Geographic" tells how Dutch Docklands LLC sees profit not loss from rising sea levels. They are building floating homes in Miami, FL. A floating classroom could assure ASPEC’s long-term future. It would provide a place to meet in the event of flooding by the 10-foot ocean surges that accompany hurricanes.
Dr. Carr describes how increasing greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, trap the radiation that is warming our planet. Advances in non-carbon emitting energy sources can reduce global warming. Solar PV panels are now generating electricity at $0.07/kWhr, less than the national utility average of $0.12kWhr. Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than atmospheric temperature, as 90% of our planet’s heat content is in our oceans.
You can learn more at www.RiskyBusiness.org.
This is the slidshow that I use for climate change extension. I am currently involved in the National Drought Pilot Program, giving the overview of climate, climate change and agronomic decisions related to it. There is a lot I discuss that isn\'t in the slides, but these highlight my main points, which end at the "what have we learnt" slide.
The year 2014 tied with 2010 as the warmest year on record for the last century. The melting of Greenland, mountain glaciers, and thermal expansion is raising sea levels four times faster than in 1900. Sea level rises of 2 to 6 feet are predicted by the end of the century. Flood highs from hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were ~ 10 feet.
The article “Treading Water” in the February 2015 "National Geographic" tells how Dutch Docklands LLC sees profit not loss from rising sea levels. They are building floating homes in Miami, FL. A floating classroom could assure ASPEC’s long-term future. It would provide a place to meet in the event of flooding by the 10-foot ocean surges that accompany hurricanes.
Dr. Carr describes how increasing greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, trap the radiation that is warming our planet. Advances in non-carbon emitting energy sources can reduce global warming. Solar PV panels are now generating electricity at $0.07/kWhr, less than the national utility average of $0.12kWhr. Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than atmospheric temperature, as 90% of our planet’s heat content is in our oceans.
You can learn more at www.RiskyBusiness.org.
This is the slidshow that I use for climate change extension. I am currently involved in the National Drought Pilot Program, giving the overview of climate, climate change and agronomic decisions related to it. There is a lot I discuss that isn\'t in the slides, but these highlight my main points, which end at the "what have we learnt" slide.
The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2.
1. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
Emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2 are increasing at a rate of 2.5 ppm per year.
2. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES
18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower.
3. THE IMPACT OF CONTINUING CLIMATE CHANGE
Melting of the Arctic is increasing our winter climate extremes.
Environmental impact due to the doubling of green house gases through global ...eSAT Journals
Abstract
Anthropogenic carbon is responsible for both global warming and ocean acidification. Efforts are underway to understand the role of the ocean in a high CO2 world on a global context. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has continued to increase and is now almost 100 ppm above its pre-industrial level. Combining our reconstruction with the known history of the anthropogenic emissions gives us a more precise and detailed view of the terrestrial biosphere sink. The term 'Greenhouse Effect' refers to the way certain gases trap heat in the atmosphere, much as the glass in a greenhouse prevents rising warm air from escaping. The greenhouse effect is a process where energy from the sun readily penetrates into the lower atmosphere and onto the surface of Earth and is converted to heat, but then cannot freely leave the planet. Due to the presence of certain greenhouse gases that trap heat, like carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, and CFCs, the atmosphere retains the suns radiation and warms up the planet. By increasing the abundance of these gases in the atmosphere, humankind is increasing the overall warming of the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere, a process called "global warming. CO2 is a greenhouse gas and as the IPCC report shows, its radiative effect is greater than that of all the other anthropogenic GHG gases.
IJRET : International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology is an international peer reviewed, online journal published by eSAT Publishing House for the enhancement of research in various disciplines of Engineering and Technology. The aim and scope of the journal is to provide an academic medium and an important reference for the advancement and dissemination of research results that support high-level learning, teaching and research in the fields of Engineering and Technology. We bring together Scientists, Academician, Field Engineers, Scholars and Students of related fields of Engineering and Technology
The extreme weather events experienced in the US this year will likely be the new normal as global warming affects the earth’s climate. The result will be significant health impacts nationally and around the globe. Dr. Jeremy Hess, a national expert on the topic, describes the major human health consequences of a warming planet including infectious diseases, neurological disorders and heat-related morbidity.
Raymond Desjardins - Impacto de la agricultura sobre el cambio climáticoFundación Ramón Areces
Los días 20 y 21 de mayo de 2014, la Fundación Ramón Areces organizó el Simposio Internacional 'Microorganismos beneficiosos para la agricultura y la protección de la biosfera' dentro de su programa de Ciencias de la Vida y de la Materia.
Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global ImplicationsOpen Knowledge
According to the WWF report "Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications", the consequences of a warming Arctic are far worse than previous projections.
using EdGCM (educational global climate modelling) to do climate modelling from the period of 1958 to 2100.
also talk about the impact of climate change with respect to south east asia.
IPCC 2013 report on Climate Change - The Physical BasisGreenFacts
"Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" is a comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change, which puts a focus on the elements that are relevant to understand past, document current, and project future climate change.
The report covers observations of changes in all components of the climate system and assess the current knowledge of various processes of the climate system.
Direct global-scale instrumental observation of the climate began in the middle of the 19th century, and reconstruction of the climate using proxies such as tree rings or the content of sediment layers extends the record much further in the past.
The present assessment uses a new set of new scenarios to explore the future impacts of climate change under a range of different possible emission pathways.
Extent of climate change over India & its projected impact on Indian agricult...India Water Portal
This special address by Dr Y E A Raj, Director General, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai made at the Kerala Enviroment Congress, Trivandrum organised by the Centre for Environment and Development discusses the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture
The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2.
1. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
Emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2 are increasing at a rate of 2.5 ppm per year.
2. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES
18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower.
3. THE IMPACT OF CONTINUING CLIMATE CHANGE
Melting of the Arctic is increasing our winter climate extremes.
Environmental impact due to the doubling of green house gases through global ...eSAT Journals
Abstract
Anthropogenic carbon is responsible for both global warming and ocean acidification. Efforts are underway to understand the role of the ocean in a high CO2 world on a global context. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has continued to increase and is now almost 100 ppm above its pre-industrial level. Combining our reconstruction with the known history of the anthropogenic emissions gives us a more precise and detailed view of the terrestrial biosphere sink. The term 'Greenhouse Effect' refers to the way certain gases trap heat in the atmosphere, much as the glass in a greenhouse prevents rising warm air from escaping. The greenhouse effect is a process where energy from the sun readily penetrates into the lower atmosphere and onto the surface of Earth and is converted to heat, but then cannot freely leave the planet. Due to the presence of certain greenhouse gases that trap heat, like carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, and CFCs, the atmosphere retains the suns radiation and warms up the planet. By increasing the abundance of these gases in the atmosphere, humankind is increasing the overall warming of the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere, a process called "global warming. CO2 is a greenhouse gas and as the IPCC report shows, its radiative effect is greater than that of all the other anthropogenic GHG gases.
IJRET : International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology is an international peer reviewed, online journal published by eSAT Publishing House for the enhancement of research in various disciplines of Engineering and Technology. The aim and scope of the journal is to provide an academic medium and an important reference for the advancement and dissemination of research results that support high-level learning, teaching and research in the fields of Engineering and Technology. We bring together Scientists, Academician, Field Engineers, Scholars and Students of related fields of Engineering and Technology
The extreme weather events experienced in the US this year will likely be the new normal as global warming affects the earth’s climate. The result will be significant health impacts nationally and around the globe. Dr. Jeremy Hess, a national expert on the topic, describes the major human health consequences of a warming planet including infectious diseases, neurological disorders and heat-related morbidity.
Raymond Desjardins - Impacto de la agricultura sobre el cambio climáticoFundación Ramón Areces
Los días 20 y 21 de mayo de 2014, la Fundación Ramón Areces organizó el Simposio Internacional 'Microorganismos beneficiosos para la agricultura y la protección de la biosfera' dentro de su programa de Ciencias de la Vida y de la Materia.
Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global ImplicationsOpen Knowledge
According to the WWF report "Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications", the consequences of a warming Arctic are far worse than previous projections.
using EdGCM (educational global climate modelling) to do climate modelling from the period of 1958 to 2100.
also talk about the impact of climate change with respect to south east asia.
IPCC 2013 report on Climate Change - The Physical BasisGreenFacts
"Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" is a comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change, which puts a focus on the elements that are relevant to understand past, document current, and project future climate change.
The report covers observations of changes in all components of the climate system and assess the current knowledge of various processes of the climate system.
Direct global-scale instrumental observation of the climate began in the middle of the 19th century, and reconstruction of the climate using proxies such as tree rings or the content of sediment layers extends the record much further in the past.
The present assessment uses a new set of new scenarios to explore the future impacts of climate change under a range of different possible emission pathways.
Extent of climate change over India & its projected impact on Indian agricult...India Water Portal
This special address by Dr Y E A Raj, Director General, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai made at the Kerala Enviroment Congress, Trivandrum organised by the Centre for Environment and Development discusses the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture
Presentation given by Dr EJ Anthony from Cranfield University about Direct Air Capture at the UKCCSRC Direct Air Capture/Negative Emissions Workshop held in London on 18 March 2014
"Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis", assesses the current
scientific knowledge of the natural and human drivers of climate change,
observed changes in climate, the ability of science to attribute changes
to different causes, and projections for future climate change.
The report was produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries. Over 620
expert reviewers and a large number of government reviewers also
participated. Representatives from 113 governments reviewed and revised
the Summary line-by-line during the course of this week before adopting
it and accepting the underlying report.
“Climate Change
2007: The Physical Science Basis”, assesses the current scientific knowledge of
the natural and human drivers of climate change, observed changes in climate,
the ability of science to attribute changes to different causes, and projections
for future climate change.
The report was
produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries. Over 620 expert reviewers and a
large number of government reviewers also participated. Representatives from 113
governments reviewed and revised the Summary line-by-line during the course of
this week before adopting it and accepting the underlying
report.
This is the fourth lesson titled 'Attributions of climate change' of the course ' Climate Change and Global environment' conducted at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities of the Rajarata University of Sri Lanka.
2. Key Messages
• Climate and weather are different
• Difference between rain and showers
• Listen for probabilities
• Climate change/Dry spell/150yr cycle/etc
–Doesn’t matter
–Seasonal variability in WA still a big concern
–Maximising efficiency
4. Key Messages
• Climate and weather are different
• Difference between rain and showers
• Listen for probabilities
• Climate change/Dry spell/150yr cycle/etc
–Doesn’t matter
–Seasonal variability in WA still a big concern
–Maximising efficiency
5. When positive
indicates the
subtropical ridge
location to the south,
thus the more positive
the lower the frontal
system on WA.
Graphic courtesy of www.bom.gov.au
6. Has the climate of WA changed?
Short Answer = YES
Rainfall has decreased
• Mainly early winter rainfall (May-July).
• Sudden decrease in the mid-1970s by about 15-20%.
• It was not a gradual decline but more of a switching into an
alternative rainfall regime.
• Change in the large-scale global atmospheric circulation.
• Less frequent and less intense frontal systems.
• Observed changes fit with the climate models.
• Changes in rainfall are a combination of climate change
and seasonal variability.
Temperatures have increased gradually over the last 50 years
• Day and night time (i.e. Maxima and Minima).
• Particularly in winter and autumn.
• Mostly due to climate change.
Source: Indian Ocean Climate Initiative 2005-2006 (Bates, 2008)
8. Causes of climate change
Greenhouse gases
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (NH4), Nitrous oxide (NO),
Water*(H2O)
• The sun
Positive feedback
• Increased H2O (7% per 1oC)
• Reduced ice cover
• Oceans cease to be a carbon sink
• Permafrost melt (NH4)
• The main greenhouse gases comprise less than 0.5% of the atmosphere.
• Without them average global temperature ~ -20oC (not ~14oC).
• N and O >99% of the atmosphere.
• Water (H2O), CO2, CH4, NO are ~0.44% of the atmosphere.
11. Hyden
3 big summers Significant change
20% more likely
Source: www.bom.gov.au
12. Kulin
2 big summers Significant change
14.5% more likely
Source: www.bom.gov.au
13. Seasonal Rainfall
Drop in Annual and Growing Season rainfall
– Annual 341 to 325 (85mm variation)
– GSR 246 to 216 = 30mm (June loss, 60mm variation)
2001-2011 GSR: 3 drought; 3 dry, 2 average, 1 above average,
1 wet year.
GSR = growing season rainfall
14. Positives?
• We know this is happening
–Decision making “easier”
• Soil moisture becomes the key indicator
• Last season gave us a lot of information
–Look at what has worked
–Water use efficiency
–What limitations?
18. Positives?
• Wheat grows better with more CO2
–Offsets other problems like pollution
–Only to a certain point……
–WUE increases
– Causes greater stress at key periods
– Only offsets decreases in yield due to temperature changes (Wang,
1992)
• Food becomes even more important!
–Wheat is 21% of the world food (Ortiz 2008)
20. James Hansen et al The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2008, 2, 217-231
21. EFFECTS UPON AGRICULTURE
• Less rainfall
• Especially winter rainfall
• Higher evaporation rates
• Fewer effective rainfall events
• Reduced soil moisture and plant available water
• Less runoff due to surface water impacts
• Effects on plants’ temperature-determined
phenological events (e.g. flowering)
22. Factors to consider when seeding
• The amount of rain at the break (soil moisture)
• Stored soil moisture (from summer and early autumn
rain).
• The target seeding date (trade-off between getting
seeding done and hitting best range – may lose yield
with later sowing)
• Prospect of more rain in the near future
• Seasonal outlook (e.g. are there any ENSO strong signals
worth considering?).
23. The Future
Results from IOCI research for south-west WA projects
that relative to 1960-1990 (Bates, 2008):
By 2030
• Rainfall will decrease by between 2 to 20 percent;
• Temperatures will increase
• Summer between 0.5 to 2.1 degrees C;
• Winter between 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C;
By 2070
• Rainfall will decrease by between 5 to 60 percent;
• Temperatures will increase
• Summer between 1.0 to 6.5 degrees C;
• Winter between 1.0 to 5.5 degrees C.
26. Links for more information
http://www.skepticalscience.com
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/
http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/PC_94076.html
http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/
http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical
28. Actual changes
Last 50 years = 0.7oC increase.
Another 0.6oC increase is in the pipeline.
– I.e. 1.3oC or 2.6oC per 100 years.
– Climate forcings suggest 5oC increase will occur this
century.
Last natural change was 5oC in 10,000 years.
– I.e. 0.05oC per 100 years.
29. Is it us? Yes, it is.
Figure: Contributions of solar activity (dark blue), volcanic activity (red), ENSO (green), and anthropogenic
effects (purple) to global surface warming (HadCRUT observations shown in light blue), according to Lean
and Rind (2008). Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
30. Figure: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an increase in hot and extreme
weather. Note also that this doesn't mean there'll be no more cold weather: these cold events will become rarer
but will not disappear. Source: US Climate Change Science Program / Southwest Climate Change Network
31. Increase Radiative
Preindustrial Current since forcing
Gas level level 1750 (W/m2)
Carbon dioxide 280 ppm 388 ppm 108 ppm 1.46
Methane 700 ppb 1745 ppb 1045 ppb 0.48
Nitrous oxide 270 ppb 314 ppb 44 ppb 0.15
CFC-12 0 533 ppt 533 ppt 0.17
Total Forcing (CO2Equiv) 450ppm
NB: 450 ppm of CO2 equivalents is Gas Formula Contribution (%)
regarded as the upper “safe” level of H2O
Water Vapor 36 – 72 %
greenhouse gases before tipping
points occur. (Hansen, 2008) CO2
Carbon Dioxide 9 – 26 %
Methane CH4 4 – 9 %
Ozone O3 3 – 7 %
32. Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various
greenhouse gases.
Chemical Lifetime Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon
Gas name
formula (years) 20-yr 100-yr 500-yr
Carbon dioxide CO2 7-10 1 1 1
Methane CH4 12 72 25 7.6
Nitrous oxide N 2O 114 289 298 153
CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 11 000 10 900 5 200
HCFC-22 CHClF2 12 5 160 1 810 549
Tetrafluoromethane CF4 50 000 5 210 7 390 11 200
Hexafluoroethane C2F6 10 000 8 630 12 200 18 200
Sulphur hexafluoride SF6 3 200 16 300 22 800 32 600
Nitrogen trifluoride NF3 740 12 300 17 200 20 700
Source: http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php
33. CO2 is rising beyond
historical levels
Similar to Keeling Curve - 1965
37. Chance of Temperature Increases
No Policy Action Policy Action
The possible global temperature changes are indicated on each wheel, with the probabilities of each
occurring denoted by the proportion of each wheel. http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/
38. Crops vs. Temperature
Rice:
• Average required 21oC to 370C, higher at tillering.
• Flowering 26.5oC to 29.50C.
• Ripening/fill between 20oC to 250C.
• 35oC for 1 hour at flowering causes sterility.
• Yield decline expected (Peng, 2004)
Wheat:
• Minimum of 3.5-5.50C.
• Optimum 20-250C.
• Maximum temperature is 350C.
• Yield decline expected (Wang, 1992)
Source: http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/
40. This figure shows the relative fraction of
man-made greenhouse gases coming
from each of eight categories of sources,
as estimated by the
Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research
version 3.2, fast track 2000 project.
These values are intended to provide a
snapshot of global annual greenhouse
gas emissions in the year 2000. The top
panel shows the sum over all man-made
greenhouse gases, weighted by their
global warming potential over the next 100
years. This consists of 72%
carbon dioxide, 18% methane, 8%
nitrous oxide and 1% other gases. Lower
panels show the comparable information
for each of these three primary
greenhouse gases, with the same
colouring of sectors as used in the top
chart. Segments with less than 1%
fraction are not labelled. http://
themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/edgar/index.html
45. But climate is cooling…
Time series of global mean heat storage (0–2000 m), measured in 108 Joules per square metre. Schuckmann 2009
46. But it was warmer in….
Hansen and Lebedeff (J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987)
47. But it’s the sun…
Figure 1: Global temperature (red, NASA GISS) and Total solar irradiance (blue, 1880 to 1978 from
Solanki, 1979 to 2009 from PMOD). Graphic www.skepticalscience.com
http://debunking.pbworks.com/w/page/17102974/Sunspots-and-Solar-Myth
48. But the sun will be colder….
Rise of global temperature (relative to 1961-1990) until the year 2100 for two different emission scenarios (A1B, red, and
A2, magenta). The dashed lines show the slightly reduced warming in case a Maunder-like solar minimum should occur
during the 21st century. Source: Feulner, G., and S. Rahmstorf (2010), On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar
activity on the future climate on Earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05707 Graphic www.skepticalscience.com
49. But scientists don’t agree…
Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing
factor in changing mean global temperatures?" (Doran 2009) General public data come from a
2008 Gallup poll.
50. But scientists don’t agree…cont
Distribution of the number of researchers convinced by the evidence of anthropogenic climate change and unconvinced by the
evidence with a given number of total climate publications http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstract
Graphic www.skepticalscience.com
51. But it used to be cooling…
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
52. But it’s the Pacific Decadal Oscillation…
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
53. But they are models….
Comparison of climate results with observations. (a) represents simulations done with only natural forcings: solar variation and
volcanic activity. (b) represents simulations done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. (c)
was done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings Chapter 12 IPCC 3rd report 2001
54. But the Antarctic is gaining ice…
Myth brought about by
confusion between sea ice
increases and land ice
losses in Antarctica.
Ice mass changes for the Antarctic ice sheet
from April 2002 to February 2009. Unfiltered
data are blue crosses. Data filtered for the
seasonal dependence are red crosses. The
best-fitting quadratic trend is shown as the green
line (Velicogna 2009). Graphic courtesy of
www.skepticalscience.com
55. Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
Source: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html
56. • La Nina = warmer seas near Australia
• El Nino = cooler seas near Australia
• WA less favourably impacted by La Nina
– Get more from change over years
57.
58. Impact of Carbon Tax
Table 5.18: Growth in output from 2010 to 2050
Source: Treasury modelling (2011), reproduced from the Federal Government document
Securing a clean energy future
http://www.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/report.asp
59. Impact of Carbon Tax
Table 5.6: Gross output, by industry, 2020 Table 5.7: Gross output, by industry, 2050
60. Climate, Weather & Farm Decisions
February, 2012
Tim Scanlon
Start with facilitated Q&A: What questions do people have about climate, weather,
climate change?
Key 3 questions from groups of 3-4 people.
Discuss and answer questions – depending upon group either just cover the questions
and start a group discussion or use as a lead in for presentation.
61. 2
Key Messages
• Climate and weather are different
• Difference between rain and showers
• Listen for probabilities
• Climate change/Dry spell/150yr cycle/etc
–Doesn’t matter
–Seasonal variability in WA still a big concern
–Maximising efficiency
63. 4
Key Messages
• Climate and weather are different
• Difference between rain and showers
• Listen for probabilities
• Climate change/Dry spell/150yr cycle/etc
–Doesn’t matter
–Seasonal variability in WA still a big concern
–Maximising efficiency
64. When positive
indicates the
subtropical ridge
location to the south,
thus the more positive
the lower the frontal
system on WA.
Graphic courtesy of www.bom.gov.au
http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/understand-climate/weather-and-climate-
drivers/western-australia
Module 4 handouts contain weather drivers overviews.
Key point is that climate brings weather but that climate is a very complex and
interactive mechanism.
65. 6
Has the climate of WA changed?
Short Answer = YES
Rainfall has decreased
• Mainly early winter rainfall (May-July).
• Sudden decrease in the mid-1970s by about 15-20%.
• It was not a gradual decline but more of a switching into an
alternative rainfall regime.
• Change in the large-scale global atmospheric circulation.
• Less frequent and less intense frontal systems.
• Observed changes fit with the climate models.
• Changes in rainfall are a combination of climate change
and seasonal variability.
Temperatures have increased gradually over the last 50 years
• Day and night time (i.e. Maxima and Minima).
• Particularly in winter and autumn.
• Mostly due to climate change.
Source: Indian Ocean Climate Initiative 2005-2006 (Bates, 2008)
Available at http://167.30.10.65/pdf/IOCIReport.pdf
http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22
Bates, 2008: http://www.springerlink.com/content/926058287l42120h/
67. 8
Causes of climate change
Greenhouse gases
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (NH4), Nitrous oxide (NO),
Water*(H2O)
• The sun
Positive feedback
• Increased H2O (7% per 1oC)
• Reduced ice cover
• Oceans cease to be a carbon sink
• Permafrost melt (NH4)
• The main greenhouse gases comprise less than 0.5% of the atmosphere.
• Without them average global temperature ~ -20oC (not ~14oC).
• N and O >99% of the atmosphere.
• Water (H2O), CO2, CH4, NO are ~0.44% of the atmosphere.
70. Hyden
3 big summers Significant change
20% more likely
Source: www.bom.gov.au
71. Kulin
2 big summers Significant change
14.5% more likely
Source: www.bom.gov.au
72. Seasonal Rainfall
Drop in Annual and Growing Season rainfall
– Annual 341 to 325 (85mm variation)
– GSR 246 to 216 = 30mm (June loss, 60mm variation)
2001-2011 GSR: 3 drought; 3 dry, 2 average, 1 above average,
1 wet year.
GSR = growing season rainfall
73. 14
Positives?
• We know this is happening
–Decision making “easier”
• Soil moisture becomes the key indicator
• Last season gave us a lot of information
–Look at what has worked
–Water use efficiency
–What limitations?
74. 15
Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earth's surface temperatures
have increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the
highest levels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures
relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends
are more apparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image
credit: NASA/GISS) http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
77. 18
Positives?
• Wheat grows better with more CO2
–Offsets other problems like pollution
–Only to a certain point……
–WUE increases
– Causes greater stress at key periods
– Only offsets decreases in yield due to temperature changes (Wang,
1992)
• Food becomes even more important!
–Wheat is 21% of the world food (Ortiz 2008)
Wang, 1992: Climate Research Volume 2 pages 131-149 http://www.int-
res.com/articles/cr/2/c002p131.pdf
Ortiz, 2008: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment Volume 126, Issues 1-2, June
2008, Pages 46-58
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880908000194
79. James Hansen et al The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2008, 2, 217-231
Over the last 400,000 years
20
80. 21
EFFECTS UPON AGRICULTURE
• Less rainfall
• Especially winter rainfall
• Higher evaporation rates
• Fewer effective rainfall events
• Reduced soil moisture and plant available water
• Less runoff due to surface water impacts
• Effects on plants’ temperature-determined
phenological events (e.g. flowering)
81. 22
Factors to consider when seeding
• The amount of rain at the break (soil moisture)
• Stored soil moisture (from summer and early autumn
rain).
• The target seeding date (trade-off between getting
seeding done and hitting best range – may lose yield
with later sowing)
• Prospect of more rain in the near future
• Seasonal outlook (e.g. are there any ENSO strong signals
worth considering?).
82. 23
The Future
Results from IOCI research for south-west WA projects
that relative to 1960-1990 (Bates, 2008):
By 2030
• Rainfall will decrease by between 2 to 20 percent;
• Temperatures will increase
• Summer between 0.5 to 2.1 degrees C;
• Winter between 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C;
By 2070
• Rainfall will decrease by between 5 to 60 percent;
• Temperatures will increase
• Summer between 1.0 to 6.5 degrees C;
• Winter between 1.0 to 5.5 degrees C.
Bates, B. C., Hope, P., Ryan, B., Smith, I.
Charles, S. 2008 Key findings from the Indian
Ocean Climate Initiative and their impact on
policy development in Australia Climate Change
(2008) 89:339-354
http://www.springerlink.com/content/926058287l42120h/
85. Links for more information
http://www.skepticalscience.com
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/
http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/PC_94076.html
http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/
http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm
Ask for sceptics and reasons why.
Alternatively, if already covered in questions at the start, use as a links page.
87. Actual changes
Last 50 years = 0.7oC increase.
Another 0.6oC increase is in the pipeline.
– I.e. 1.3oC or 2.6oC per 100 years.
– Climate forcings suggest 5oC increase will occur this
century.
Last natural change was 5oC in 10,000 years.
– I.e. 0.05oC per 100 years.
88. Is it us? Yes, it is.
Figure: Contributions of solar activity (dark blue), volcanic activity (red), ENSO (green), and anthropogenic
effects (purple) to global surface warming (HadCRUT observations shown in light blue), according to Lean
and Rind (2008). Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
89. Figure: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an increase in hot and extreme
weather. Note also that this doesn't mean there'll be no more cold weather: these cold events will become rarer
but will not disappear. Source: US Climate Change Science Program / Southwest Climate Change Network
Figure 1: Bell curve showing how an increase in average temperatures leads to an
increase in hot and extreme weather. Note also that this doesn't mean there'll be no more
cold weather: these cold events will become rarer but will not disappear. Source:
US Climate Change Science Program / Southwest Climate Change Network
30
90. Increase Radiative
Preindustrial Current since forcing
Gas level level 1750 (W/m2)
Carbon dioxide 280 ppm 388 ppm 108 ppm 1.46
Methane 700 ppb 1745 ppb 1045 ppb 0.48
Nitrous oxide 270 ppb 314 ppb 44 ppb 0.15
CFC-12 0 533 ppt 533 ppt 0.17
Total Forcing (CO2Equiv) 450ppm
NB: 450 ppm of CO2 equivalents is Gas Formula Contribution (%)
regarded as the upper “safe” level of H2O
Water Vapor 36 – 72 %
greenhouse gases before tipping
points occur. (Hansen, 2008) CO2
Carbon Dioxide 9 – 26 %
Methane CH4 4 – 9 %
Ozone O3 3 – 7 %
Hansen J, Sato M, et al. (2008) Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?
The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2, 217-231. http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126
91. Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various
greenhouse gases.
Chemical Lifetime Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon
Gas name
formula (years) 20-yr 100-yr 500-yr
Carbon dioxide CO2 7-10 1 1 1
Methane CH4 12 72 25 7.6
Nitrous oxide N2 O 114 289 298 153
CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 11 000 10 900 5 200
HCFC-22 CHClF 2 12 5 160 1 810 549
Tetrafluoromethane CF4 50 000 5 210 7 390 11 200
Hexafluoroethane C2F6 10 000 8 630 12 200 18 200
Sulphur hexafluoride SF6 3 200 16 300 22 800 32 600
Nitrogen trifluoride NF3 740 12 300 17 200 20 700
Source: http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php
92. CO2 is rising beyond
historical levels
Similar to Keeling Curve - 1965
Keeling Curve
Graphic from Wikipedia, the free encyclopaedia
The Keeling Curve: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory
The Keeling Curve is a graph showing the variation in concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1958. It is based on
continuous measurements taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii under the supervision of Charles David Keeling.
Keeling's measurements showed the first significant evidence of rapidly increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.
Many scientists credit Keeling's graph with first bringing the world's attention to the effects that human activity was having on
the Earth's atmosphere and climate.[1]
Charles David Keeling, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, was the first person to make frequent regular
measurements of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, taking readings at the South Pole and in Hawaii from
1958 onwards.[2]
Prior to Keeling, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was thought to be affected by constant variability. Keeling
had perfected the measurement techniques and observed "strong diurnal behaviour with steady values of about 310 ppm in
the afternoon" at three locations: (Big Sur near Monterey, the rain forests of Olympic Peninsula and high mountain forests in
Arizona).[3] By measuring the ratio of two isotopes of carbon, Keeling attributed the diurnal change to respiration from local
plants and soils, with afternoon values representative of the "free atmosphere". By 1960, Keeling and his group established
the measurement record that was long enough to see not just the diurnal and seasonal variations, but also a year-on-year
increase that roughly matched the amount of fossil fuels burned per year. In the article that made him famous, Keeling
observed, "at the South Pole the observed rate of increase is nearly that to be expected from the combustion of fossil fuel".[4]
Mauna Loa measurements
Due to funding cuts in the mid-1960s, Keeling was forced to abandon continuous monitoring efforts at the South Pole, but he
scraped together enough money to maintain operations at Mauna Loa, which have continued to the present day.[5]
The measurements collected at Mauna Loa show a steady increase in mean atmospheric CO2 concentration from about 315 parts
per million by volume (ppmv) in 1958 to 385 ppmv as of June 2008.[6][7] This increase in atmospheric CO2 is considered to be
largely due to the combustion of fossil fuels, and has been accelerating in recent years. Since carbon dioxide is a
greenhouse gas, this has significant implications for global warming. Measurements of carbon dioxide concentration in ancient
air bubbles trapped in polar ice cores show that mean atmospheric CO2 concentration has historically been between 275 and
285 ppmv during the Holocene epoch (9,000 BCE onwards), but started rising sharply at the beginning of the nineteenth
century.[8] However, analyses of stomatal frequency in tree leaves indicate that mean atmospheric CO2 concentration may
have reached 320 ppmv during the Medieval Warm Period (800–1300 CE) and 350 ppmv during the early Holocene.[9][10]
Though Mauna Loa is not an active volcano, Keeling and collaborators made measurements on the incoming ocean breeze and
above the thermal inversion layer to minimize local contamination from volcanic vents. In addition, the data are normalized to
negate any influence from local contamination.[11] Measurements at many other isolated sites have confirmed the long-term
trend shown by the Keeling Curve,[12] though no sites have a record as long as Mauna Loa.[13]
The Keeling Curve also shows a cyclic variation of about 5 ppmv in each year corresponding to the seasonal change in uptake of CO2
by the world's land vegetation. Most of this vegetation is in the Northern hemisphere, since this is where most of the land is
located. The level decreases from northern spring onwards as new plant growth takes carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere
through photosynthesis and rises again in the northern fall as plants and leaves die off and decay to release the gas back into
the atmosphere.[14]
Due in part to the significance of Keeling's findings,[5] the NOAA began monitoring CO2 levels worldwide in the 1970s. Today, CO2
levels are monitored at about 100 sites around the globe.[1]
Carbon dioxide measurements at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii are made with a type of infrared spectrophotometer(
capnograph invented in 1864 by John Tyndall) called a nondispersive infrared sensor[15]
Keeling died in 2005. Supervision of the measuring project was taken over by his son, , a climate science professor at the Scripps
94. Temperature change relative to 1900
1940 1970 1994
Greenhouse gases 0.1 0.38 0.69
Sulfate emissions -0.04 -0.19 -0.27
Solar forcing 0.18 0.1 0.21
Volcanic forcing 0.11 -0.04 -0.14
Ozone -0.06 0.05 0.08
Net 0.19 0.17 0.53
Observed 0.26 0.21 0.52
This figure, based on Meehl et al. (2004), shows the ability with which a
global climate model (the DOE PCM [1]) is able to reconstruct the
historical temperature record and the degree to which the associated temperature
changes can be decomposed into various forcing factors. The top part of the figure
compares a five year average of global temperature measurements (Jones and Moberg
2001) to the Meehl et al. results incorporating the effects of five predetermined forcing
factors: greenhouse gases, man-made sulfate emissions, solar variability, ozone changes
(both stratospheric and tropospheric), and volcanic emissions (including natural
sulfates). The time history and radiative forcing effectiveness for each of these factors
was specified in advance and was not adjusted to specifically match the temperature
record.
Also shown are grey bands indicating the 68% and 95% range for natural variability in
the five year average of temperature as determined from multiple simulations with
different initial conditions. In other words, the bands indicate the estimated size of
fluctuations that are expected to result from changes in weather rather than changes in
climate. Ideally the model should be able to reconstruct temperature variations to within
about the tolerance specified by these bands. Though the model captures the gross
features of twentieth century climate change, it remains likely that some of the
differences between model and observation reflect the limitations of the model and/or
our understanding of the histories of the observed forcing factors.
In the lower portion of the figure are the results of additional simulations in which the
model was operated with only one forcing factor at a time. A key conclusion of the
Meehl et al. (2004) work is that the model response to all factors combined is
approximately equal to the sum of the responses to each of the factors taken individually.
They conclude therefore that it is reasonable to discuss how the evolving man-made and
natural influences individually impact climate. Meehl et al. attribute most of the 0.52 °C 35
96. Chance of Temperature Increases
No Policy Action Policy Action
The possible global temperature changes are indicated on each wheel, with the probabilities of each
occurring denoted by the proportion of each wheel. http://globalchange.mit.edu/resources/gamble/
97. Crops vs. Temperature
Rice:
• Average required 21oC to 370C, higher at tillering.
• Flowering 26.5oC to 29.50C.
• Ripening/fill between 20oC to 250C.
• 35oC for 1 hour at flowering causes sterility.
• Yield decline expected (Peng, 2004)
Wheat:
• Minimum of 3.5-5.50C.
• Optimum 20-250C.
• Maximum temperature is 350C.
• Yield decline expected (Wang, 1992)
Source: http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/
Peng, 2004: PNAS Vol 101, Issue 27, pages 9971-9975
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.long
Wang, 1992: Climate Research Volume 2 pages 131-149 http://www.int-
res.com/articles/cr/2/c002p131.pdf
Further reading:
http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim05/papers/howden.pdf
http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/foster_farre_wheat_
yield_drying%20climate.pdf
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/01-BWheat/$File/01-B
%20Wheat.pdf
Ortiz, 2008: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment Volume 126, Issues 1-2, June
2008, Pages 46-58
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880908000194
38
99. This figure shows the relative fraction of
man-made greenhouse gases coming
from each of eight categories of sources,
as estimated by the
Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research
version 3.2, fast track 2000 project.
These values are intended to provide a
snapshot of global annual greenhouse
gas emissions in the year 2000. The top
panel shows the sum over all man-made
greenhouse gases, weighted by their
global warming potential over the next 100
years. This consists of 72%
carbon dioxide, 18% methane, 8%
nitrous oxide and 1% other gases. Lower
panels show the comparable information
for each of these three primary
greenhouse gases, with the same
colouring of sectors as used in the top
chart. Segments with less than 1%
fraction are not labelled. http://
themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/edgar/index.html
100. Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earth's surface temperatures
have increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highest
levels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to
1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are more
apparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image credit:
NASA/GISS) http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
41
101. As seen by the blue point farthest to the right on this graph, 2009 was the warmest year
on record in the Southern Hemisphere. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
42
102. Kaufman et al., Science, 2009, Vol 325, pp 1236-1239
Science 4 September 2009:
Vol. 325 no. 5945 pp. 1236-1239
Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling
Darrell S. Kaufman1,,
David P. Schneider2,
Nicholas P. McKay3,
Caspar M. Ammann2,
Raymond S. Bradley4,
Keith R. Briffa5,
Gifford H. Miller6,
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner2,
Jonathan T. Overpeck3,
Bo M. Vinther7 and
Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members†
+ Author Affiliations
1School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.
2Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
3Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
4Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA.
5Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
6Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
7Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.
*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: darrell.kaufman@nau.edu
Abstract
The temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis of
decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60°N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive
cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate
simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our
proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in
summer insolation. The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-
long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.
43
104. But climate is cooling…
Time series of global mean heat storage (0–2000 m), measured in 108 Joules per square metre. Schuckmann 2009
105. But it was warmer in….
Hansen and Lebedeff (J. Geophys. Res., 92,13,345, 1987)
Fig. 2. Global surface temperature computed for scenarios A, B, and C (12), compared with
two analyses of observational data. The 0.5°C and 1°C temperature levels, relative to
1951–1980, were estimated (12) to be maximum global temperatures in the Holocene
and the prior interglacial period, respectively. Hansen and Lebedeff [J. Geophys. Res.,
92,13,345, 1987]
Annual mean global surface air temperature computed for scenarios A, B and C.
Observational data are an update of the analysis of Hansen and Lebedeff [J. Geophys. Res.,
92,13,345, 1987]. Shaded area is an estimate of the global temperature during the peak of
the current interglacial period (the Altithermal, peaking about 6,000 to 10,000 years ago,
when we estimate that global temperature was in the lower part of the shaded area) and the
prior interglacial period (the Eemian period, about 120,000 years ago, when we estimate
that global temperature probably peaked near the upper part of the shaded area). The
temperature zero point is the 1951-1980 mean.
Medieval warm period is largely mythical. Yes it was warm during that period, but
Greenland has had an icesheet for 400,000 to 800,000 years (at least), and statements
that it was warmer then than now is false. This is based upon early incomplete science
data sets, thus since collecting more data the historical temperatures have been better
understood. Also interesting to note that the skeptics use the first IPCC graphs for this, but
won’t use the more complete graphs.
Altithermal = A dry postglacial interval centered about 5500 years ago during which
temperatures were warmer.
Eemian = The Eemian was an interglacial period which began about 130,000 years ago and
ended about 114,000 years ago. It was the second-to-latest interglacial period of the
106. But it’s the sun…
Figure 1: Global temperature (red, NASA GISS) and Total solar irradiance (blue, 1880 to 1978 from
Solanki, 1979 to 2009 from PMOD). Graphic www.skepticalscience.com
http://debunking.pbworks.com/w/page/17102974/Sunspots-and-Solar-Myth
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-advanced.htm
http://debunking.pbworks.com/w/page/17102974/Sunspots-and-Solar-Myth
Sceptic comments
It's the sun: "Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, at the
time when the Earth has been getting warmer. The data suggests solar activity is influencing the global climate causing
the world to get warmer."
What the science says...
In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions
Until about 1960, measurements by scientists showed that the brightness and warmth of the sun, as seen from the
Earth, was increasing. Over the same period temperature measurements of the air and sea showed that the Earth was
gradually warming. It was not surprising therefore for most scientists to put two and two together and assume that it was
the warming sun that was increasing the temperature of our planet.
However, between the 1960s and the present day the same solar measurements have shown that the energy from the
sun is now decreasing. At the same time temperature measurements of the air and sea have shown that the Earth has
continued to become warmer and warmer. This proves that it cannot be the sun; something else must be causing the
Earth's temperature to rise.
So, while there is no credible science indicating that the sun is causing the observed increase in global temperature, it's
the known physical properties of greenhouse gasses that provide us with the only real and measurable explanation of
global warming.
Bit more:
As supplier of almost all the energy in Earth's climate, the sun has a strong influence on climate. A comparison of sun and climate
over the past 1150 years found temperatures closely match solar activity (Usoskin 2005). However, after 1975, temperatures rose
while solar activity showed little to no long-term trend. This led the study to conclude, "...during these last 30 years the solar total
irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent
warming episode must have another source."
In fact, a number of independent measurements of solar activity indicate the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1960, over
the same period that global temperatures have been warming. Over the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been
moving in opposite directions. An analysis of solar trends concluded that the sun has actually contributed a slight cooling influence
in recent decades (Lockwood 2008).
Figure 1: Annual global temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving average of temperature (thick dark
red). Temperature from NASA GISS. Annual Total Solar Irradiance (thin light blue) with 11 year moving average of TSI (thick dark
blue). TSI from 1880 to 1978 from Solanki. TSI from 1979 to 2009 from PMOD.
Other studies on solar influence on climate
This conclusion is confirmed by many studies finding that while the sun contributed to warming in the early 20th Century, it has
had little contribution (most likely negative) in the last few decades:
Erlykin 2009: "We deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to
solar activity is 14% of the observed global warming."
Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th
century and is negligible for warming since 1980."
47
Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward;
107. But the sun will be colder….
Rise of global temperature (relative to 1961-1990) until the year 2100 for two different emission scenarios (A1B, red, and
A2, magenta). The dashed lines show the slightly reduced warming in case a Maunder-like solar minimum should occur
during the 21st century. Source: Feulner, G., and S. Rahmstorf (2010), On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar
activity on the future climate on Earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05707 Graphic www.skepticalscience.com
108. But scientists don’t agree…
Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing
factor in changing mean global temperatures?" (Doran 2009) General public data come from a
2008 Gallup poll.
109. But scientists don’t agree…cont
Distribution of the number of researchers convinced by the evidence of anthropogenic climate change and unconvinced by the
evidence with a given number of total climate publications http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstract
Graphic www.skepticalscience.com
110. But it used to be cooling…
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
111. But it’s the Pacific Decadal Oscillation…
Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
112. But they are models….
Comparison of climate results with observations. (a) represents simulations done with only natural forcings: solar variation and
volcanic activity. (b) represents simulations done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. (c)
was done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings Chapter 12 IPCC 3rd report 2001
Also use Sir David Attenborough’s video to support this.
53
113. But the Antarctic is gaining ice…
Myth brought about by
confusion between sea ice
increases and land ice
losses in Antarctica.
Ice mass changes for the Antarctic ice sheet
from April 2002 to February 2009. Unfiltered
data are blue crosses. Data filtered for the
seasonal dependence are red crosses. The
best-fitting quadratic trend is shown as the green
line (Velicogna 2009). Graphic courtesy of
www.skepticalscience.com
114. Graphic courtesy of www.skepticalscience.com
Source: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html
115. • La Nina = warmer seas near Australia
• El Nino = cooler seas near Australia
• WA less favourably impacted by La Nina
– Get more from change over years
116.
117. Impact of Carbon Tax
Table 5.18: Growth in output from 2010 to 2050
Source: Treasury modelling (2011), reproduced from the Federal Government document
Securing a clean energy future
http://www.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/report.asp
118. Impact of Carbon Tax
Table 5.6: Gross output, by industry, 2020 Table 5.7: Gross output, by industry, 2050