In order to get useful insights into decision-making, we are pushing the boundaries using mobile technology to perform complex surveys with trade-off and conjoint techniques. It is imperative that this method works just as well on low-end Android devices/phones and 2G networks with limited bandwidth as it works for smart phones and 3/4G networks.

1. How to predict
choice of lower
income consumers
Robert Dossin Mike Mabey
SKIM Europe SKIM USA
A mobile study about painkillers choices
in Indonesia, Brazil & South Africa

2. Lower & Middle class
In Emerging markets
70.000.000
each year BRIC+ 7 trillion
2015
20 trillion
2025
Source: McKinsey & Company ‘The great rebalancing, 2010’

3. Developing research
methods
Source: GRIT report 2015 – Greenbook/methods

4. More demanding - faster

5. Mobile Connects the Unconnected

6. PC ownership of mobile
users
PC at Home
37%
No PC at Home
63%

7. Mobile surveys in most
emerging markets are for 16-44
5%
21%
24% 23%
17%
10%
16 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
On Device Sample Census
Source: n=2060 On Device Profiler 2015

8. Access to lower
social class
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Female Male 18-34 35-44 45+ LSM 1-4 LSM 5-7 LSM 8-
10
AMPS 2014 (Census) On Device Sample

9. Mobile beats face to face
alternatives
0.89
0.83
0.94
0.91
0.76
0.8
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.96
Malaysia India
Correlation of tracking data with actual
market share data 1 = Perfect Correlation
Face to Face
Mobile

10. Robust sample in days
n=1260
n = 600
~ 60% 18-25 y/o
80% earn 3000 R or less
n = 38 feature phones
n = 380
~ 50% 18-25 y/o
46% earn Rp 10.000 or less
n = 127 feature phones
n = 280
44% 18 – 25 y/o
48% R. 8999 or less
n = 30 feature phones

11. So what
did we do?
Painkillers Study

12. Predict choice using trade offs
Output are preferences per consumer to be used for predictions
Brand Units per pack Dosage (in mg) Price (local R) Format
Top 3 (combination
large manufacturer &
local)
- Tylenol
- Novalgine
- Anador
3 options:
- 24
tablets/capsules
- 20
- 16
3 dosages:
- 200 mg
- 300 mg
- 500 mg
3 different prices:
- 7.19
- 10.99
- 12.49
2 different formats:
- Tablets
- Capsules
Painkiller Choice
What is the most appealing attribute for consumers?

13. 13 taps on a mobile phone
Choice Tasks
Consumers have completed 7 different
choice tasks, each task varying the
attributes of the product (brand, units,
dosage, price & format)
In each task, respondents chose one
concept that they preferred most
For this study, there were 2 or 3 concepts
shown on screen at a time

14. Setup Brazil
Additional insights
Understand why concepts are motivating
and other insights
Open ended question:
‘For what purpose consumers
normally buy painkillers?’
Additional options
Select questions for specific sizes or flavors
Additional price analysis

15. Key findings
Brand is the
most important
attribute
7%
13%
15%
19%
47%
Type
Price
Dosage
Pieces
Brand

16. Brand preference
17%
23%
60%
Novalgina
Anador
Tylenol

17. Brazilians like it big
13%
25%
62%
10
pieces
20
pieces
30
pieces
19%
26%
56%
100
mg
300
mg
500
mg

18. Latent Class analytics
• 45% prefer Novalgina (SA),
but could switch to Tylenol as
they give more importance to
other attributes such as
• high dosage and high number
of pieces.
• They are not price sensitive
• Extremely loyal to the Tylenol
brand
• Prefer capsules over tablets
• Motivated by a high number of
pills and mid dosage
• Tylenol lovers are price sensitive
• Very loyal to the Anador brand
• Tablets are preferred over
capsules
• Motivated by a midsize quantity
and high dosage
• Anador lovers are very price
sensitive
Novalgina likers 45% Tylenol lovers 36% Anador price buyers
19%

19. The most common uses
of painkillers

20. Country nuances
Tablets
preferred
Price
sensitive
Package & dosage
important drivers

21. Prediction
power

22. Prediction
In all countries our models predict significant
better compared to random chance (33%)!
65.8% 70.3% 76.8%
33%
x 2 !

23. Art or
Science

24. You want to
know more?
Mike Mabey
m.mabey@skimgroup.com
Robert Dossin
r.dossin@skimgroup.com