The managing partner and founder of HOW Planning, Gary Halman, gives insight into the local plans and housing completion rates in Cheshire and Warrington

1. 21 September 2017
Cheshire Development Update
organised by Place North West
HOUSING
Gary Halman, Managing Partner

2. A G E N D A
• Local Plans
• Population and income
• Housing numbers
• Land supply
• Affordable homes
• Community Infrastructure Levy
• Recent schemes

3. Local Plans

4. • Local Plan Strategy 2010-2030
• Adopted 27 July 2017
• Site Allocations &
Development Policies DPD
• Published - 1st Quarter 2018
• Submission - 2nd Quarter 2018
• Adoption - 4th Quarter 2018
• Cheshire East Council
(CEC) Local Plan Status
Source: CEC Local Development Scheme 2016-18 (17 October 2016)

5. • Local Plan (Part One) Strategic
Policies & Policies Map
• adopted 29 January 2015
• Local Plan (Part Two) Land
Allocations & Detailed Policies
• Publication Plan – November
2017
• Consultation –
November/December 2017
• Submission – March 2018
• Adoption – Early 2019
• Cheshire West and
Chester Council (CWAC)
Local Plan Status
Source: CWaC Local Development Scheme 2016-18 (January 2016)
CWaC Planning Policy Team (19.09.17)

6. • Local Plan Core Strategy
2012-2027
• Adopted 27 July 2014
• Local Plan Review
• Preferred Development Option
Consultation – 18 July 2017 to
29 September 2017
• Draft plan – Spring/Summer
2018
• Submission – Autumn 2018
• Adoption – Winter 2019
• Warrington Borough
Council Local Plan Status
Source: WBC Local Development Scheme 2016-18 (17 October 2016)
WBC Planning Policy Team (19.09.17)

7. Forecast population growth varies across sub-region
Local Authority 20071 20161 20302 Growth
CEC 365,000 376,700 397,100 8.79%
CWAC 329,400 335,700 345,500 4.89%
WBC 196,600 208,800 226,300 15.11%
Source:
1 ONS: NOMIS https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/1946157071/report.aspx?c1=1946157072&c2=1946157074
2 ONS: Subnational Population Projections for Local Authorities in England: Table 2:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/localauthoritiesinenglandtable2

8. Average annual pay
Average Annual
Pay in 2007
Average Annual
Pay in 2016
Growth
CEC 23,907 26,883 12.45%
CWAC 23,182 24,656 6.36%
WBC 26,142 26,587 1.70%
North West£23,021 £25,726 11.75%
Source:
ONS: Average annual pay (Table 7.7a)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbylocalauthorityashetable7

9. Average house price growth
Local Authority
Average House
Price in 2007
Average House
Price in 2016
Growth
CEC £191,154 £206,776 8.17%
CWAC £182,261 £189,939 4.21%
WBC £166,149 £171,808 3.41%
Source:
HM Land Registry: UK House Price Index: data downloads July 2017
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/uk-house-price-index-data-downloads-july-2017

10. “Generally, house prices have driven any worsening of housing affordability, whereas
increases in earnings have driven any improvements in affordability in areas, despite
increasing house prices”
ONS - Housing affordability in England and Wales: 1997 to 2016*.
Ratio of Average House Price to Average Earnings
Local Authority 2007 2016 Change
CEC 8.00 7.69 -3.80%
CWAC 7.86 7.70 -2.02%
WBC 6.36 6.46 1.68%
*Source:
Housing affordability in England and Wales: 1997 to 2016
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/housingaffordabilityinenglandandwales/1997to2016

11. CEC Housing completions 2010 to 2016
2010-
2011
2011-
2012
2012-
2013
2013-
2014
2014-
2015
2015-
2016
2016-
2017
Total
Requirement 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 12,600
Completions
(net, after losses)
659 778 614 713 1,236 1,473 1,762 7,235
Surplus
(- deficit)
-1,141-1,022-1,186-1,087-564 -327 -38 -5,365
Source: CEC Housing Monitoring Update, August 2017, Page 6

12. CWAC Housing completions 2010 to 2016
2010-
2011
2011-
2012
2012-
2013
2013-
2014
2014-
2015
2015-
2016
2016-
2017
Total
Requirement 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
Completions
(net, after losses)
654 796 673 970 1,571 1,769 2,017 8,450
Surplus
(- deficit)
-446 -304 -427 -130 471 669 917 750
Source:
CWaC Housing land monitor report 2016-2017, Page 21.

13. Warrington Housing completions 2010 to 2016
2010-
2011
2011-
2012
2012-
2013
2013-
2014
2014-
2015
2015-
2016
2016-
2017
Total
Requirement 500 500 500 500 500 840 840 4,180
Completions (Net) 388 527 600 647 693 687 616 4,158
Surplus
(- deficit)
-112 27 100 147 193 -153 -224 -22
Source:
(500) WBC Core Strategy, July 2014, page 165
(840) Mid Mersey Strategic Housing Market Assessment, January 2016, page 95

14. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017
Comparison of Local Authority
Housing Completions
CEC Completions
(net, after losses)
CWaC Completions
(net, after losses)
WBC Completions
(net, after losses)

15. Deliverable Housing Supply
Source:
CEC Housing Monitoring Update (March 2017), Page 19.
CWaC Housing land monitor report 2016-2017, Page 21.
WBC Confirmed by appeal September 2017, APP/M0655/W/17/3174633, page 4.
Local Authority Deliverable Housing Supply
CEC
5.45 years
(March 2017)
CWAC
7.82 years
(April 2017)
WBC
Acknowledge < 5 years
(September 2017)

16. 2010-
2011
2011-
2012
2012-
2013
2013-
2014
2014-
2015
2015-
2016
Total
Requirement 355 355 355 355 355 355 2,130
Affordable housing
completions
205 214 184 131 638 448 1,820
Surplus
(- deficit)
-150 -141 -171 -224 283 93 -310
CEC Affordable Housing completions 2010 to 2016
Source:
(355) CELPS - Paragraph 12.44
CEC Housing Monitoring Update, August 2017, page 6

17. CWAC Affordable Housing completions 2010 to 2016
2010-
2011
2011-
2012
2012-
2013
2013-
2014
2014-
2015
2015-
2016
Total
Requirement 1,296 1,296 1,296 714 714 714 6,030
Affordable housing
completions
263 390 184 161 572 478 2,048
Surplus
(- deficit)
-1033 -906 -1112 -553 -142 -236 -3,982
Source:
(714) CWaC AMR 2016, para. 7.167, page 79
(1,296) CWaC AMR 2013, para. 5.22, page 32

18. WBC Affordable Housing completions 2010 to 2016
2010-
2011
2011-
2012
2012-
2013
2013-
2014
2014-
2015
2015-
2016
Total
Requirement
20% of new
homes on
eligible sites
delivered as
affordable
20% of new
homes on
eligible sites
delivered as
affordable
477 477 172 220 1126
Affordable housing
completions
291 187 227 212 101 162 1180
Surplus
(- deficit)
-250 -265 -71 -58 -644
Source: (220) WBC AMR 2016, Page19.
(172) WBC AMR 2014/15, page 13
(477) WBC ANR 2012/13, page 27
(20%) WBC AMR 2010/11, page 25

19. Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL)

20. CEC CIL
• Preliminary Draft Charging Schedule
consultation – Quarter 1 2017
• Revised Draft Charging Schedule –
September 2017
• Consultation on Draft Charging
Schedule – Quarter 3 2017
• Examination – Quarter 4 2017
• Adoption – Quarter 1 2018
Source: CEC Community Infrastructure Levy, Draft Charging Schedule, September 2017, page 18-22

21. Source: CEC Community Infrastructure Levy, Draft Charging Schedule, September 2017, page 20

22. CWAC
Commencement date for CIL
was 1 September 2017
Development type Zone
CIL rat
sq.m.
Residential (Use Class C3 dwelling houses, excluding
stand alone apartment blocks and excluding rural
workers dwellings) - Chester and the rural area
Zone 1 £70
Residential (Use Class C3, excluding apartments) -
Ellesmere Port, Northwich, Winsford and Blacon urban
areas
Zone 2 £0
Apartments (Use Class C3) Whole borough £0
Hotels (Use Class C1) Whole borough £0
Residential institutions (Use Class C2) Whole borough £0
Source:
CWaC Community Infrastructure Levy, Charging Schedule, September 2017, Page 9, 13.

23. Max. CIL rate per sq. m
Recommended rate
range per sq. m.
0.25ha
Low Value Area £43 £21 - £32
Moderate Value Area £92 £46 - £69
High Value Area £138 £69 - £103
1ha
Low Value Area £53 £26 - £40
Moderate Value Area £105 £52 - £79
High Value Area £163 £81 - £122
5ha
Low Value Area £40 £20 - £30
Moderate Value Area £77 £38 - £58
High Value Area £119 £59 - £89
WBC CIL
• Warrington CIL currently on hold
• CIL no longer progressing alongside the
Local Plan review though work may
resume before the adoption of the Local
Plan Review (expected in October
2018)
Source:
WBC Planning Policy Team, (19.09.17)
WBC Community Infrastructure Levy Viability Study, September 2015, page 48-49
Map:
2015 Viability Study:
Proposed Charge Zones
Table:
2015 Viability Study:
Residential Maximum Rates
and Recommended Ranges

24. Recent Schemes

25. Alderley Park Image: Manchester Science Partnerships

26. Alderley Park
Images: PH Property Holdings

27. Royal London Wilmslow Image: Royal London Asset Management

28. Leighton Crewe
Illustrative masterplan: Randall Thorp

29. Dane Valley, Northwich Image: Planit

30. Cuddington near Sandiway Image: Taylor Wimpey

31. Thank you

32. Gary Halman
Managing Partner
HOW Planning
40 Peter Street
Manchester
M2 5GP
gary.halman@howplanning.com
0161 835 1333