Our Economic Forum in Bristol

1. Recent changes to ONS economic
statistics - a regional perspective
Richard Prothero,
Head of Cities and Subregional
Analysis, Public Policy Division, ONS

2. Contents
• New ONS Regional Outputs from 2017.
– Productivity
– Public Sector Finances
– Service Exports
– House Prices
• Forthcoming ONS Regional Outputs
– Balanced Regional GVA
– Regional Short Term Indicators

3. Labour Productivity (GVA per hour worked), 2015

4. 'City Regions' Labour Productivity
GVA per hour worked, 2015

5. Productivity by Industry
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
S, T - Other service activities, Activities of households
R - Arts, entertainment and recreation.
Q - Human health and social work activities.
P - Education.
O - Public administration and defence
N - Administrative and support service activities.
M - Professional, scientific and technical activities.
L - Real estate activities.
K - Financial and insurance activities.
J - Information and communication.
I - Accommodation and food service activities.
H - Transportation and storage.
G - Wholesale and retail trade;
F - Construction.
C – Manufacturing.
A, B, D, and E – Non-manufacturing production
Output per Hour - South West (UK=100)

6. Distribution of firm level productivity (GVA per worker) in the
non-financial business economy, NUTS1 regions, 2014
• This Figure shows firm-level
productivity data for the non-
financial business economy for
selected regions and countries
• It shows the proportion of firms at
different levels of gross value
added (GVA) per worker.
• The distributions are skewed to the
right, indicating that in all the
regions there are fewer firms with
high productivity levels than firms
with lower productivity levels.

7. Average GVA per worker of urban built-up areas
classified by population size for the business economy
in north and south of England, 2014
England and Wales = 100

8. Net Fiscal Balance by country and region, 2015/2016
• In the financial year ending (FYE) 2016,
all countries and regions except
London, the South East and the East of
England had a public sector net fiscal
deficit, with the East of England
showing a net fiscal surplus for the first
time since FYE 2008.
• This was the same when North Sea oil
and gas revenue was allocated to
regions on both geographic and
population shares (the chart shows the
geographic share).
-30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Wales
South West
South East
London
East of England
West Midlands
East Midlands
Yorkshire and The Humber
North West
North East
Net Fiscal Balance (£m) 2015/16

9. Net Fiscal Balance by country and region, 2000 - 2016
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Net Fiscal Balance (£m)
Greater South East (Lon+SE+EE) Rest of England (NE+NW+YH+EM+WM+SW)
N.Ireland/Scotland/Wales UK

10. Public Sector Revenue, by country and region, 2015/16

11. Public Sector Expenditure, by country and region, 2015/16

12. Exports of Services
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Construction
Retail (excluding motor trades)
All other services
Primary and utilities
Administrative and support services
Wholesale and motor trades
Insurance and pension services
Transport
Travel
Information and communication
Manufacturing
Real estate, professional, scientific and technical
Financial
Value of Service Exports, 2015 (£m)
Rest of GB London

13. Total value of service exports from NUTS1 areas by
continent, Great Britain, 2015

14. Total value of service exports from NUTS1 areas by
manufacturing industry
• The EU was the largest destination for manufacturing services exports, receiving close to £5.0
billion, followed by Asia with £4.3 billion, and the Americas with £3.9 billion.
• In the North West, the most important destination for manufacturing service exports was Asia,
generating £2.1 billion or 53% of the total manufacturing services exports from the North West.
• In the South West, the most important destination for manufacturing services exports was the
Americas, generating 46% of the total South West manufacturing service exports.
Source: Office for National Statistics International Trade
in Services

15. House Prices per m2 by Area
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
House Prices (£ per meter squared)
Bath and North East Somerset
City of Bristol
North Somerset
South Gloucestershire

16. • .

17. Combined Authority Economic Indicators

18. ‘Balanced’ Regional GVA
• In December 2017, a new ‘Balanced’ Regional GVA measure
will be published.
• UK GDP measured 3 different ways
• Income; Output (or Production); Expenditure
• Then balanced to provide a single ‘best’ estimate
• Regional GVA measured 2 different ways
• Income, Output (or Production). No expenditure measure due
to inter-regional trade flows
• These will be used to derive a single ‘best’ estimate

19. ‘Balanced’ Regional GVA
• Balanced GVA should be more stable and reliable
• Extra industry detail
– NUTS1: 80 industry breakdown
– NUTS2: 71 industry breakdown
• All of these in both current prices and ‘real’ CVMs (chained
volume measures).
• All regional GVA estimates (inc. small areas and derived
productivity estimates) based on a consistent and coherent
framework

20. Regional Short Term Indicators (RSTI)
• Users tell us they need more timely, more
granular and more flexible regional
economic statistics
• Devolution project established 2016
• Includes the development of Regional Short
Indicators for England
• ie produce quarterly real GVA growth
estimates for the regions (NUTS1) of England
• Addresses the user need for more timely
regional economic statistics

21. Related statistics?

22. The detail….
What’s happening when?
• Mar 18: Peer review of historic
series
• Apr 18: User consultation
(including the publication of the
historic series)
• Dec 18: First regular publication of
experimental data
• Ongoing quarterly publication
~90-110 days after the end of the
quarter
What’s the approach?
• Using a combination of data sources:
• Monthly Business Survey (MBS)
• Retail Sales Inquiry (RSI)
• Remaining industries covered by
“other data sources”
• Mainly direct volume measures eg
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Air
Transport, Education
• Including the use of VAT data
• Using UK deflators
Email: RSTI.Enquiries@ons.gov.uk
~60% ind
coverage