What if we treated
violence like a disease?
Charlie Ransford
Senior Researcher, Cure Violence
UIC School of Public Health
New Scientific Understanding of Violence
Violence has the 3 characteristics of an epidemic disease
1. Violence clusters - like a disease
Cholera Violence
2. Violence spreads - like a disease
Influenza
Violence
3. Violence is transmitted -
through exposure, modeling,
social learning, and norms.
Child Abuse Victims Becoming Abusers
30%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Community Violence Increases Post War
(WW1 & WW2)
Combat
Nations
Non-
Combat
Nations
#of
Nations
Increase Decrease No Change
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2Chronic
Exposure
No/Low/Moderate
Exposure
Chronic Exposure to Community Violence
Associated with Perpetration
Exposure to Violence Perpetration of Violence
Probabilityof
PerpetratingViolence
Social Learning
Modeling
Mirror Neurons
Social Norms
Scripts
Neurological Effects
Desensitization
Hyper-arousal
Stress
Modulating Factors
Dose
Prior immunity
Context
Age
1
2
3 4
What Is Known About The Transmission of Violence?
Cure Violence Epidemic Control Model
Using trained public health workers to detect
and mediate potentially lethal conflicts
Using highly trained outreach workers to
identify those at highest risk for violence
and provide treatment to change behavior
over the short and long-term
Reversing social pressure so that violence is
no longer expected and accepted
1. Detect & Interrupt Transmission
2. Change Behavior of Highest Risk
3. Change Norms
Cure Violence Use of Crime Data
Shootings & Killing 2007-2010 Shootings & Killing 2011
Cure Violence Model Proven Effective
3 Independent Multi-year Evaluations
City
(study period)
# of Sites
Evaluated
Reduction in
Shootings
Chicago
(2000-2008)
Baltimore
(2007-2010)
New York
(2009-2011)
7
4
1
-41% to -73%
-34% to -44%
-20%
1
1
2
Compared to previous rate
Compared to expected value based on control trend
1
2
CANADA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
TRINIDAD
COLOMBIA
SOUTH
AFRICA
YEMEN
KENYA
EGYPT
IRAQ
ENGLAND
JAMAICA
PUERTO RICO
ISRAEL/
PALESTINE
ADAPTATION PARTNERS
EXPLORING PARTNERSHIPS
HONDURAS
SYRIA
Cure Violence Model Being Replicated Across the Globe
8 countries, 22 cities
UNITED STATES
(15 cities)
Charlie Ransford
ransford@uic.edu
CureViolence.org

Charlie Ransford - Cure Violence

  • 1.
    What if wetreated violence like a disease? Charlie Ransford Senior Researcher, Cure Violence UIC School of Public Health
  • 2.
    New Scientific Understandingof Violence Violence has the 3 characteristics of an epidemic disease 1. Violence clusters - like a disease Cholera Violence 2. Violence spreads - like a disease Influenza Violence 3. Violence is transmitted - through exposure, modeling, social learning, and norms.
  • 3.
    Child Abuse VictimsBecoming Abusers 30% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Community Violence Increases Post War (WW1 & WW2) Combat Nations Non- Combat Nations #of Nations Increase Decrease No Change 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 2Chronic Exposure No/Low/Moderate Exposure Chronic Exposure to Community Violence Associated with Perpetration Exposure to Violence Perpetration of Violence Probabilityof PerpetratingViolence
  • 4.
    Social Learning Modeling Mirror Neurons SocialNorms Scripts Neurological Effects Desensitization Hyper-arousal Stress Modulating Factors Dose Prior immunity Context Age 1 2 3 4 What Is Known About The Transmission of Violence?
  • 5.
    Cure Violence EpidemicControl Model Using trained public health workers to detect and mediate potentially lethal conflicts Using highly trained outreach workers to identify those at highest risk for violence and provide treatment to change behavior over the short and long-term Reversing social pressure so that violence is no longer expected and accepted 1. Detect & Interrupt Transmission 2. Change Behavior of Highest Risk 3. Change Norms
  • 6.
    Cure Violence Useof Crime Data Shootings & Killing 2007-2010 Shootings & Killing 2011
  • 7.
    Cure Violence ModelProven Effective 3 Independent Multi-year Evaluations City (study period) # of Sites Evaluated Reduction in Shootings Chicago (2000-2008) Baltimore (2007-2010) New York (2009-2011) 7 4 1 -41% to -73% -34% to -44% -20% 1 1 2 Compared to previous rate Compared to expected value based on control trend 1 2
  • 8.
    CANADA MEXICO BRAZIL TRINIDAD COLOMBIA SOUTH AFRICA YEMEN KENYA EGYPT IRAQ ENGLAND JAMAICA PUERTO RICO ISRAEL/ PALESTINE ADAPTATION PARTNERS EXPLORINGPARTNERSHIPS HONDURAS SYRIA Cure Violence Model Being Replicated Across the Globe 8 countries, 22 cities UNITED STATES (15 cities)
  • 9.