Presentation given to the Georgia Partnership for Excellence in Education's Critical Issues Forum on August 12, 2015. Looks at the changing faces and fortunes of metro Atlanta and beyond

1. Georgia and Metro Atlanta
Demographics and Economics
Mike Carnathan
Presentation to the Georgia Partnership for Excellence in Education
Critical Issues Forum, August 12
Atlanta Regional Commission
Neighborhood Nexus
mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com

2. How Well Do You Know Georgia?

3. Which County has the Most
People?

4. Fulton County! As of the
2010 Census, it had a
population of 920,581.
Source: 2010 Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

5. Which County in Georgia has
the Highest Concentration of
Children?

6. Liberty County! More than
10 percent of the
population is under the age
of 5.
Source: 2010 Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

7. Which County has Highest
Rate of Food Stamp Usage?

8. Terrell County! About 413
people per 1,000 residents
receive Food Stamps
(SNAP).

9. Which County has the Highest
Concentration of Adults with
Limited English Proficiency?

10. Echols County! About 17
percent of the adult
population have limited
English proficiency.

11. Which County has the highest
concentration of those age
16-19 who have dropped out
of high school?

12. Hancock County! Almost 34
percent of those age
between 16-19 are high
school dropouts

13. Which County has the Highest
Concentration of Those
Without Health Insurance?

14. Echols County! About 35
percent of the population
does not have health
insurance.

15. Which County has the Highest
Teen Birthrate?

16. Taliaferro County! In 2011,
there were 58 births to teen
mothers per every 1,000
birth.

17. The Big Ten
• Fast growing state and metro area
• Growing older… but still young
• Growing more diverse (these are the young folks)
• Job market recovering
• Incomes are not
• Economy will reflect changing demographics
• “New Economy” jobs hot
• So are “Old Economy” jobs
• Education Gap is big
• Socioeconomics matter

18. Population Trends

19. Videowww.gapminder.orgLongevity

20. Georgia’s Growth About Double that of
Nation’s, 1990-2014
Source: US Census
27.7%
13.0%
3.1%
55.0%
22.7%
4.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
1990-2014 2000-2014 2010-2014
United States
Georgia

21. Georgia’s growth ranks 4th among all states
since 1990
Source: US Census
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000

22. One of the fastest-growing metro areas in the
nation
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

23. Metro Atlanta Growth: Inside and Out

24. Forecast
Pop
Change (000s)
2015-2040
Source: Woods and Poole

25. 28.7%
10.7%
27.0%
13.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
School Age (18 and Under) Older Adults (65+)
GA US
Georgia is Younger than Nation
Source: US Census

26. Metro Atlanta One of the Youngest Metros in
Nation (especially in the Southeast)
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

27. Age Distribution in Georgia: % 65+, 2010
Metro Atlanta relatively
young compared to
Georgia
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

28. Age Distribution in Georgia: % Under 5, 2010
Heaviest Concentration of
Kids in Suburban Atlanta
& South Georgia
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

29. Baby Boomer
Eisenhowers/Silents
Gen X
Millennial
1990 Age Comparison (%of tot pop)
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Nation ARC 20Cty
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

30. Millennial
Eisenhowers/Silents
Baby Boomer
Gen X
Gen Z
2015 Age Comparison (%of tot pop)
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Nation ARC 20Cty
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

31. Gen AA
Millennial
Baby Boomer
Gen X
Gen Z
2040 Age Comparison (%of tot pop)
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Nation ARC 20Cty

32. Metro Atlanta added more Black Population
than any other metro…
Total Hispanic Black White Total Hispanic Black White
Houston 1,231,393 745,935 214,928 85,643 Tampa, FL 387,246 203,566 72,970 57,482
Dallas 1,210,229 634,449 233,890 158,283 Chicago 362,789 462,377 (58,255) (193,010)
Atlanta 1,020,879 276,993 473,493 106,267 Minneapolis 311,027 77,162 83,464 63,623
Riverside 970,030 767,440 58,919 5,613 San Diego 281,480 240,383 (7,887) (48,786)
Phoenix 941,011 418,706 80,318 320,370 Philadelphia 278,196 181,963 93,161 (140,551)
Washington 785,987 341,107 155,648 58,019 Boston 215,058 128,911 54,009 (136,692)
New York 574,107 760,983 (67,709) (558,563) San Francisco 211,651 205,545 (37,595) (185,650)
Miami 557,071 608,865 191,658 (267,991) Baltimore 157,495 72,425 74,124 (66,652)
Los Angeles 463,210 583,070 (85,025) (361,772) St. Louis 114,209 31,582 36,764 7,349
Seattle 395,931 147,023 36,061 27,015 Detroit (156,307) 41,147 (37,603) (194,535)
Metro
2000-2010 Population Change MSA
Metro
2000-2010 Population Change MSA
2000-2010
Source: US Census

33. 2015 Race and Ethnicity
29.9%
31.9%
37.3%
46.3%
47.0%
47.8%
48.7%
53.3%
62.7%
71.8%
6.5%
19.9%
16.8%
24.6%
15.7%
15.2%
32.7%
16.5%
20.3%
7.0%
15.1%
2.4%
7.3%
10.0%
10.6%
6.0%
5.4%
6.2%
5.6%
7.3%
45.5%
43.9%
36.7%
15.6%
24.3%
28.6%
10.7%
22.1%
9.1%
10.6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
LA
Miami
Houston
Washington
NYC
Dallas
Atlanta
Chicago
Philadelphia
Boston
White Black American Indian/Alaska Native Asian Pacific Islander Other Multiple Races Hispanic (Any Race)
Source:ESRIDemographics

34. Race Distribution in Georgia: % White, 2010
North Georgia =
Older and Whiter
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

35. Race Distribution in Georgia: % Black, 2010
Metro Atlanta and SW
Georgia has heaviest
concentrations of Black
populations
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

36. Race Distribution in Metro Atlanta: % White, 2010
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

37. Race Distribution in Metro Atlanta: % Black, 2010
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

38. Race Distribution in Georgia: % Hispanic, 2010
Metro Atlanta has
heaviest concentrations
of Hispanics, but this
population is dispersed.
Not so much in the most
“urban” places, though.
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

39. Race Distribution in Metro Atlanta: % Hispanic, 2010
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

40. Generations
Source:CensusEstimates

41. Millennials are the Most Diverse Generation
Source: Census Estimates

42. 6.5%
11.3%
21.6%
28.4%
42.8%
47.1%
62.3%
63.2%
63.8%
67.9%
69.9%
75.7%
79.0%
90.3%
93.8%
89.4%
76.7%
64.9%
48.1%
53.2%
38.5%
16.4%
16.6%
23.4%
23.9%
24.1%
19.6%
14.1%
3.3%
0.4%
2.8%
5.8%
5.8%
17.2%
0.8%
6.5%
10.3%
16.5%
6.9%
4.8%
2.7%
1.9%
2.2%
4.7%
4.8%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Atlanta City
DeKalb
Clayton
Marietta City
Decatur City
Fulton
Gwinnett
Buford City
Cobb
Rockdale
Douglas
Henry
Fayette
Cherokee
Forsyth
% White % Black % Asian % Hispanic % Other
2000 School Enrollment
Source: GA DOE, via Neighborhood Nexus

43. 2014 School Enrollment
2.9%
10.7%
14.8%
16.8%
18.3%
26.7%
29.6%
30.5%
35.1%
39.8%
51.8%
54.7%
61.2%
68.8%
71.6%
70.3%
65.5%
75.5%
64.6%
40.9%
31.3%
51.2%
42.5%
49.3%
31.9%
26.7%
12.2%
25.4%
3.1%
7.3%
4.2%
6.1%
1.1%
1.7%
2.4%
10.0%
1.3%
9.9%
2.8%
5.1%
5.6%
2.9%
2.5%
12.4%
1.7%
19.8%
15.7%
6.8%
13.4%
34.7%
27.9%
13.5%
14.2%
8.5%
19.5%
10.3%
27.7%
5.3%
12.6%
16.0%
2.9%
2.0%
1.8%
3.5%
3.7%
4.0%
4.4%
2.9%
4.3%
3.7%
5.7%
2.5%
5.7%
3.1%
3.4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Clayton
DeKalb
Atlanta City
Rockdale
Marietta City
Gwinnett
Douglas
Fulton
Henry
Cobb
Fayette
Buford City
Decatur City
Forsyth
Cherokee
% White % Black % Asian % Hispanic % Other

44. THE REGION STILL BECOMING MORE DIVERSE
71.2%
66.6%
60.1%
54.9%
50.2% 48.3% 46.6% 44.9% 43.3% 41.6%
39.8%
24.8%
26.8%
28.3%
30.0%
31.8%
31.9%
31.5%
31.0%
30.3%
29.5%
28.7%
1.9%
2.8%
4.5%
5.7%
6.8%
7.4%
7.9%
8.3%
8.8%
9.2%
9.6%
2.1% 3.9%
7.1%
9.3% 11.3% 12.4% 14.0% 15.7% 17.6% 19.6% 21.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
White Black Other Hispanic
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

45. Socioeconomic Trends

46. Job Market Recovering in Georgia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.4
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2 2.1
1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6
1.3
1.1
0.8
-2.1
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Percent Change in Total Jobs, May 2014 - May 2015

47. Metro Atlanta Outperforming Nation Last 2
Years
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Year-Over-Year % Change in Total Employment
ATL
US
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

48. Metro Atlanta One of the Top Performing
Metros in Job Change Last Year
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, via Neighborhood Nexus

49. $30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
$46,000
$48,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nation
Georgia’s Per Capita Income Lower Today
than in 2000
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
$46,000
$48,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GA

50. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
DistrictofColumbia
Alaska
Colorado
Arizona
SouthDakota
RhodeIsland
Iowa
Oregon
Idaho
Illinois
Washington
Massachusetts
NewJersey
Delaware
Connecticut
Maryland
Montana
California
Virginia
Georgia
Nebraska
Michigan
Maine
Minnesota
NorthDakota
Kansas
NewMexico
Ohio
Arkansas
Wyoming
Utah
NewYork
Vermont
Kentucky
Texas
Florida
Indiana
Alabama
NorthCarolina
Nevada
NewHampshire
Louisiana
Wisconsin
Hawaii
Missouri
Tennessee
SouthCarolina
Mississippi
Pennsylvania
Oklahoma
WestVirginia
Job Postings per 10,000 people employed, last 12 months
20th
HOW GEORGIA COMPARES

51. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Software Developers, Applications
Registered Nurses
Retail Salespersons
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical…
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
Computer Systems Analysts
Customer Service Representatives
Medical and Health Services Managers
Managers, All Other
Business Intelligence Analysts
Human Resources Specialists
Sales Managers
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General
Accountants
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and…
Management Analysts
Computer Systems Engineers/Architects
Database Administrators
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and…
Marketing Managers
General and Operations Managers
Web Developers
Job Postings – Last 12 Months
TOP OCCUPATIONS IN GEORGIA

52. REGIONAL LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION FORECAST
Labor Force Participation Rates – All Ages
66.0%
58.6%
54.0%
56.0%
58.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Rate
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

53. 7.9 AND 4.6
Forecast Summary – Total (in Thousands)
5,279
7,934
3,074
4,627
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
inThousands
Population Employment
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

54. Employment Forecast
Total Private Sector Employment (in Thousands) by Industry
Job Change [1990-2040]
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Forestry & Fishing
Mining
Utilities
Mgmt of Cos
Information
Arts, Ent & Rec
Educ Svcs
Transp & Warehouse
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Other Svcs
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate
Accom & Food Svcs
Construction
Admin & Waste Mgmt Svcs
Prof, Sci & Tech Svcs
Retail Trade
Health Care
Emp in 1990 Change 1990-2015 Change 2015-2040Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast
(2015) Series 15 DRAFT

55. Forecast
Jobs
Change,
2015-2040
Source: Woods and Poole

56. So What?

57. Education Supply & Demand
71.7%
28.3%
Educational Supply
(Education Attained by Those Age
25+)
BA- BA+
37.4%
62.6%
Educational Demand
(Education Asked For in Job
Postings)
BA- BA+

58. 3rd Grade Reading Exceed Rate Economic Disadvantage Rate
Source: Georgia Office of Student Achievement, via Neighborhood Nexus

59. 0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
% Does not Meet % Meets % Exceeds
Economically Disadvantaged Non-Economically Disadvantaged
Socioeconomics Matter!
3rd Grade Reading: Comparing Economically Disadvantaged to Non-
Economically Disadvantaged
(10-County Area Aggregated)
Achievement Gap
of 38 Points
Source: Georgia Office of Student Achievement, via Neighborhood Nexus

60. Socioeconomics
Matter!
Source: ESRI, Georgia Office of Student Achievement, via Neighborhood Nexus

61. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% Exceeds 3rd Grade Reading
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
% NOT Economically Disadvantaged
Source: Georgia Office of Student Achievement

62. Health Matters!
Source: Accessed from Get Georgia Reading Campaign (based on original research by Dr. Bryan Williams)