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Regional Snapshot: Exploration of Key Trends in the 65+ Age Cohort

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This month's regional snapshot explores key trends among the 65+ age cohort in the 10-county Atlanta region.  This snapshot is a compressed version of a longer product giving an overview of Aging demographics, as well as of issues impacting seniors in our region. This forthcoming product will also highlight activities and programs of the Atlanta Regional Commission's Aging & Health Resources group that address the aging population’s needs and challenges.

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Regional Snapshot: Exploration of Key Trends in the 65+ Age Cohort

  1. 1. Exploration of Key Trends in the 65+ Age Cohort For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com
  2. 2. Key Points The 60+ age cohort population will increase more than all other age cohorts combined, comprising 51.5 percent of all population growth between 2015 and 2040. The majority of the White population in the 10-county region is older than 35. The converse is true for non-white populations – the majority are younger than 35. Many older adults experience isolation, which has been shown to have adverse health effects on par with smoking 15 cigarettes per day! Approximately 36 percent of respondents age 65+ indicated that they had challenges accessing needed transportation to get to places they need to go, almost 10 percentage points higher than all respondents to this question. Today, older adults are much more likely to remain in the workforce, as more than half of workers aged 65-69 are considered to be in the workforce, compared to only 25 percent in 1990.
  3. 3. Who Are the Region’s Older Adults?
  4. 4. Past Trends in Median Age: Peer Metros and USA 27.9 37.8 36.1 26.5 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0 39.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 USA Dallas Atlanta Washington Charlotte Nashville Source: Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018 Like much of the nation, the median age in metro Atlanta has gotten significantly older in the past 40+ years, going from a median age of 26.5 in 1970 to slightly older than 36 years as of 2015.
  5. 5. Historical Shares of Population 65+: Peer Metros and USA Source: US Census Bureau; Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018; ARC Research & Analytics (access, processing, and analysis) 9.9 12.4 14.9 7.1 7.7 11.2 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 USA Dallas Atlanta Washington Charlotte Nashville Even with the recent increases in the median age, metro Atlanta’s share of 65+ population is still lower than that of the nation’s. Metro Atlanta has historically been a young region, and still is today, but growth in the older cohorts has been the strongest.
  6. 6. Source: 2012-2016 ACS Metro Atlanta is a Relatively Young Place The highlighted purple areas are those neighborhoods in the sate that have the highest percentages of those age 65+. As can be seen, areas in the northern parts of the state have the highest concentrations of older adults, and there are relatively few of these areas in the Atlanta region. But areas in Fayette, Spalding and the City of Atlanta do have high concentrations.
  7. 7. Projections for Median Age: Peer Metros and USA 37.8 40.0 36.1 37.8 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0 39.0 40.0 41.0 2015 2020 2030 2040 USA Dallas Atlanta Washington Charlotte Nashville Source: Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018; ARC Research & Analytics (access, processing, and analysis) According to one source of population projections (Woods and Poole), the median age will continue to rise through the year 2040…
  8. 8. Forecast Shares of Population 65+: Peer Metros and USA 14.9 20.5 11.2 17.6 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0 2015 2020 2030 2040 USA Dallas Atlanta Washington Charlotte Nashville Source: Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018; ARC Research & Analytics (access, processing, and analysis) … and about 18 percent of metro Atlanta's population will be 65+ by 2040.
  9. 9. 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 200,000 225,000 250,000 275,000 300,000 325,000 350,000 375,000 400,000 425,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 1990 1990-2015 2015-2040 Projected Growth By Age Group: 10-County Area In the 10-county Atlanta region, the highest projected growth rates are concentrated in the older age cohorts. In fact, in raw numbers, the 60+ age cohort will grow more than all other age cohorts combined, according to Woods and Poole projections. Source: Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018; ARC Research & Analytics (access, processing, and analysis)
  10. 10. Shares of Net Increase by Age: 10-County Area 18.7% 11.1% 9.9% 44.9% 15.4% 13.9% 4.5% 13.8% 22.5% 45.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 0-14 15-24 25-39 40-64 65+ 1990-2015 2015-2040 As this chart shows, growth in the 65+ age cohort will comprise 45 percent of all population growth between 2015 and 2040. Source: Census Bureau; ARC Series 15 Forecasts
  11. 11. Race/ Ethnicity by Age Cohort: Atlanta MSA, 2017 Source: 2017 Census Small-Area Estimates, accessed July 2018 16.3% 23.8% 11.5% 15.0% 12.9% 15.5% 28.4% 28.7% 14.4% 9.4% 16.5% 7.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% White, NH Minority Age 0-14 Age 15-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-64 Age 65+ In looking at race/ethnicity by age cohort, roughly 60 percent of the white, non-Hispanic population in the 10-county region is older than 35. Conversely, the majority of the minority (i.e. non-white) population is younger than 35.
  12. 12. Shares of 65+: Forecast Trends for ARC Counties Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts 12.3% 8.6% 11.7% 10.9% 11.0% 18.0% 10.7% 9.4% 10.8% 13.4% 20.6% 17.0% 22.5% 18.5% 18.4% 28.6% 18.7% 21.1% 20.0% 18.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale 2015 2040 Fayette County already has the highest share of those 65+, and that share is forecast to increase from 18 percent in 2015 to 29 percent in 2040.
  13. 13. What are the Housing Characteristics of the 65+ Population?
  14. 14. Percent 65+ Living in Areas With the Highest Concentrations of those Living Alone Source: 2010-2014 ACS 70 percent of older adults will eventually need help with activities such as eating, bathing and dressing. A better range of housing options are needed for older adults to age in their communities, especially rental properties that offer or are near basic services such as transportation, personal care and meals. Note: This map highlights those areas with the highest concentrations of those living alone, and the color ramp shows, among these areas, where the greatest concentrations of residents 65+ live
  15. 15. Housing Affordability for 65+ Source: 2010-2014 ACS There is not enough quality, affordable housing in metro Atlanta to meet the needs of the region’s fast-growing population of older adults. 57 percent of metro Atlanta renters aged 65+ spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing.
  16. 16. What are the Transportation Characteristics of the 65+ Population?
  17. 17. Access to Transportation a Significant Concern of Residents Age 65+ 26.7% 71.0% 36.3% 54.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Agree (including "Strongly) Disagree (including "Strongly") "I frequently lack the transportation I need to get to places I need to go." All respondents 65+ In the 2017 Metro Atlanta Speaks survey, approximately 36 percent of respondents age 65+ indicated that they had challenges accessing needed transportation to get to places they need to go, almost 10 percentage points higher than all respondents to this question. Source: 2017 Metro Atlanta Speaks
  18. 18. 581,721 583,950 623,889 658,677 540,000 560,000 580,000 600,000 620,000 640,000 660,000 680,000 MARTA Number of Paratransit (Demand Response) Trips 2013 2014 2015 2016 Paratransit Trips on the Rise MARTA and other transit providers (see next slide) provide demand response trips to those with disabilities, a population that includes many seniors. The number of demand response trips provided by MARTA (MARTA Mobility) has steadily increased since, mirroring the trend of increases in older adults in the region.
  19. 19. 58,916 21,938 58,221 27,100 60,070 28,812 63,712 27,450 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 CCT GCT Number of Paratransit (Demand Response) Trips 2013 2014 2015 2016 Paratransit Trips on the Rise As with MARTA, other transit providers have seen steadily increasing ridership as well since 2013.
  20. 20. What are the Economic Characteristics of the 65+ Population?
  21. 21. Who is Working is Changing 25.3% 31.6% 50.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Ages 65-69 Ages 70-74 Ages 75+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Ages 16-19 Ages 25-29 Ages 45-54 Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (10- County Area) The composition of the workforce is changing. Today, older adults are much more likely to remain in the workforce, as more than half of workers aged 65-69 are considered to be in the workforce, compared to only 25 percent in 1990.
  22. 22. Scenario Modeling: Potential Economic Impacts of Increases in Retiree vs. Working Age Migration Source: REMI Modeling Scenario More in Personal Income More in Additional GDP What would happen if more retirees moved to Metro Atlanta? Assuming an annual increase of 1,000 65+ retired migrants per year to 20-county economy from 2015-2040, with distribution weighted on 65+ population in each county. *Note: No explicit costs considered Potentially… What would happen if more working age (18-64) people move to Metro Atlanta? More in Personal Income More in Additional GDP Assuming an annual increase of 1,000 migrants aged 18- 64 per year to 20-county economy from 2015-2040, with distribution weighted on population aged 18-64 in each county. *Note: No explicit costs considered Potentially…
  23. 23. Key Facts about the 65+ Workforcein Metro Atlanta In 2000, there were almost 39,000 workers age 65+ in metro Atlanta. By 2017, that number swelled to more than 106,000, an increase of 175 percent. By comparison, jobs held by those aged 16-64 increased by only 18 percent over the same period. Between 2007-2012, workers 65+ increased by 15,090 jobs while the 18-64 job base declined by 92,881 jobs. The Great Recession had a dramatic impact on the composition of the workforce. As of 2017, those aged 65+ comprised only 5 percent of the economy’s jobs, but had filled nearly 20 percent of the net new jobs between 2000-2017. Between 2000 and 2017, average wages for jobs filled by those 65+ went up 53 percent, while wages for those ages 18-64 went up only 10 percent. Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)

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