The aim of this paper is twofold: to highlight the need of combining economic and political perspectives in analyzing sanctions outcomes, and to list and elaborate on challenges connected with uniting these two standpoints and creating cohesive and valid measurement methods. We not only credit this fusion as useful, but necessary to evaluate sanctions' efficiency and effectiveness. We display these challenges in sanctions' assessment and measurement by systematizing what we already know about the sanction effectiveness in political science and economics literature and by demonstrating strengths and weaknesses of some already published effectiveness evaluations. The paper is the part of the larger research project that we recently embarked upon with aim to analyze the onset, economic impact and effectiveness of sanctions imposed by the European Union.
The presentation discusses the conceptual framework for public policy planning in a step-by-step approach. It involves systematic mode, incremental mode, ad-hoc mode, importation mode of policy generation. Before the end, it will cover the aspects of policy implementation and impact assessment processes.
The presentation discusses the conceptual framework for public policy planning in a step-by-step approach. It involves systematic mode, incremental mode, ad-hoc mode, importation mode of policy generation. Before the end, it will cover the aspects of policy implementation and impact assessment processes.
The role of events in simulation modelingWeibull AS
The need for assessing the impact of events with binaryi outcomes, like loan defaults, occurrence of
recessions, passage of a special legislation, etc., or events that can be treated like binary events like
paradigm shifts in consumer habits, changes in competitor behavior or new innovations, arises often
in economics and other areas of decision making.
By using analogies from intervention analysis a number of interesting and important issues can be
analyzed:
If two events affects one response variable will the combined effect be less or greater than the sum of both?
Will one event affecting more than one response variable increase the effect dramatically?
Is there a risk of calculating the same cost twice?
If an event occurs at the end of a project, will it be prolonged? And what will the costs be?
Questions like this can never be analyzed when using a ‘second layer lump sum’ approach. Even
more important is possibility to incorporate the responses to exogenous events inside the simulation
model, thus having the responses at the correct point on the time line and by that a correct net
present value for costs, revenues and company or project value.
r The Impact of Social Policy Pranab Chatterjee an.docxaudeleypearl
r
The Impact of
Social Policy
Pranab Chatterjee and Diwakar Vadapalli
'"I·-\ere is increasing recognition today that social policies and programs
should be carefully evaluated to determine whether they do, in fact,
meet their stated objectives. Althongh it has often been assumed that social
policies have a positive impact, this assumption has been called into question
by many critics of government social programs. This chapter discusses the
ways in which the impact of social policies can be assessed. It describes the
principles and techniques used in different types of evaluation. Although
evaluation research has become increasingly sophisticated, values and ideolo
gies continue to play an important role in deciding which policy approaches
work best.
___________ The logic of Bmpact Analysis
Rossi and Freeman (1985, 1993) and Rossi, Lipsey, and Freeman (2004)
observe that there are four phases of social policy evaluation. These are
needs assessment, selection of a program to respond to needs, impact evalu
ation, and cost-benefit analysis. Upon outlining the four phases of evalua
tion, they discuss many experimental, quasi-experimental, and time-series
designs that can be used for program evaluation. Mohr (1995) singled out
the idea of impact evaluation and called it an attempt to isolate the direct
effects of a policy (or, more precisely, a program derived from a policy) apart
from any confounding environmental effects. Earlier, Suchman (1967) sng
gested tbat a program is a form of social experiment, and any evaluation of
it leads to the conclusion tbat the program does or does not produce given
social ends. Following Suchrnan's ideas, Riecken and Baruch (1974) listed
ways of evaluating the impact of social experiments, many of which can be
construed as preludes to new forms of social policy. Schalock (2001), using
83
84
I
THE NATURE OF SOCIAL POLICY
T
these contributions, defined outcome-based evaluation as evaluation that
uses valued and objective person- and organization-referenced outcon1es to
analyze a program's effectiveness, impact, or efficiency. Snchman (1967), in
his earlier work, had stated that, if any one program does not produce given
social ends, one should conclude that it is a case of program failure.
However, if it seems that a substantial number of programs, all similar
in nature, do not produce given ends, then it indicates a case of theory fail
ure. In other words, the theory that generated the programs (as interven
tions to bring about a change) has been developed on faulty premises.
The groundwork of Rossi and Suchman on impact analysis (both of
social programs and of the parent policies or theories on which they rest) is
based on the assumption that quantitative analysis and multivariate design
will produce knowledge about the impact of social policies and programs.
Ask a typical policy analyst, academic, or program-administrator about the
impact of social ...
The role of events in simulation modelingWeibull AS
The need for assessing the impact of events with binaryi outcomes, like loan defaults, occurrence of
recessions, passage of a special legislation, etc., or events that can be treated like binary events like
paradigm shifts in consumer habits, changes in competitor behavior or new innovations, arises often
in economics and other areas of decision making.
By using analogies from intervention analysis a number of interesting and important issues can be
analyzed:
If two events affects one response variable will the combined effect be less or greater than the sum of both?
Will one event affecting more than one response variable increase the effect dramatically?
Is there a risk of calculating the same cost twice?
If an event occurs at the end of a project, will it be prolonged? And what will the costs be?
Questions like this can never be analyzed when using a ‘second layer lump sum’ approach. Even
more important is possibility to incorporate the responses to exogenous events inside the simulation
model, thus having the responses at the correct point on the time line and by that a correct net
present value for costs, revenues and company or project value.
r The Impact of Social Policy Pranab Chatterjee an.docxaudeleypearl
r
The Impact of
Social Policy
Pranab Chatterjee and Diwakar Vadapalli
'"I·-\ere is increasing recognition today that social policies and programs
should be carefully evaluated to determine whether they do, in fact,
meet their stated objectives. Althongh it has often been assumed that social
policies have a positive impact, this assumption has been called into question
by many critics of government social programs. This chapter discusses the
ways in which the impact of social policies can be assessed. It describes the
principles and techniques used in different types of evaluation. Although
evaluation research has become increasingly sophisticated, values and ideolo
gies continue to play an important role in deciding which policy approaches
work best.
___________ The logic of Bmpact Analysis
Rossi and Freeman (1985, 1993) and Rossi, Lipsey, and Freeman (2004)
observe that there are four phases of social policy evaluation. These are
needs assessment, selection of a program to respond to needs, impact evalu
ation, and cost-benefit analysis. Upon outlining the four phases of evalua
tion, they discuss many experimental, quasi-experimental, and time-series
designs that can be used for program evaluation. Mohr (1995) singled out
the idea of impact evaluation and called it an attempt to isolate the direct
effects of a policy (or, more precisely, a program derived from a policy) apart
from any confounding environmental effects. Earlier, Suchman (1967) sng
gested tbat a program is a form of social experiment, and any evaluation of
it leads to the conclusion tbat the program does or does not produce given
social ends. Following Suchrnan's ideas, Riecken and Baruch (1974) listed
ways of evaluating the impact of social experiments, many of which can be
construed as preludes to new forms of social policy. Schalock (2001), using
83
84
I
THE NATURE OF SOCIAL POLICY
T
these contributions, defined outcome-based evaluation as evaluation that
uses valued and objective person- and organization-referenced outcon1es to
analyze a program's effectiveness, impact, or efficiency. Snchman (1967), in
his earlier work, had stated that, if any one program does not produce given
social ends, one should conclude that it is a case of program failure.
However, if it seems that a substantial number of programs, all similar
in nature, do not produce given ends, then it indicates a case of theory fail
ure. In other words, the theory that generated the programs (as interven
tions to bring about a change) has been developed on faulty premises.
The groundwork of Rossi and Suchman on impact analysis (both of
social programs and of the parent policies or theories on which they rest) is
based on the assumption that quantitative analysis and multivariate design
will produce knowledge about the impact of social policies and programs.
Ask a typical policy analyst, academic, or program-administrator about the
impact of social ...
CHAPTER 4The HR Role in Policy, Budget, Performance Management, and .docxchristinemaritza
CHAPTER 4The HR Role in Policy, Budget, Performance Management, and Program Evaluation
The conceptual model in Chapter 3 explains how an organization can remain relevant by responding appropriately to environmental change and uncertainty in ways that reflect strategic thinking about human resources. However, here, as elsewhere, analytical integration comes at the price of operational clarity. Chapter 4 links this conceptual model to the real world by describing the sequential processes by which ideas become programs. These are policy making, budgeting, performance management, and program evaluation.
Issues become part of a public agenda through the policy process. This process is chaotic and unpredictable, for it involves the serendipitous convergence or “coupling” of agendas, alternative solutions, and politics, all leading to government action.1 During this process, problems become public policy issues; these issues are framed by competing political agendas; legislatures authorize and chief executives approve policy solutions as law and fund them through a budgeting process. These policy and budget processes are the headwaters of public personnel management because they all lead eventually to paying people to do things.
Human resource planning (HRP) is that aspect of public HRM that mediates between the political environment and managerial implementation of public programs through core HRM activities such as workforce planning, job analysis, job classification, job evaluation, and compensation. In brief, HRP matches agency managers’ “wish lists” with political realities generated by projected revenues and political philosophies and goals within a much broader context of factors like the supply and demand for labor. For the line manager, the process begins with a request from the budget office: “What kind and how many positions do you need in order to meet program objectives?” In many cases, this request is preceded by some kind of strategic planning process that helps establish priorities and goals. It ends with legislative authorization of programs and appropriation of funds required to implement them.
Program implementation leads to performance management and program evaluation. Many interests—political, administrative, and clients are but a few—influence how an agency’s performance is measured, and how those measurements affect program evaluation. While decisions about a program’s continued funding are based on both political and administrative criteria, data-driven decisions are only possible if the agency has a management information system that can provide valid and timely information about program performance. Because pay and benefits typically comprise about 70 percent of an agency’s budget, an HR manager who can provide valued information about the costs and benefits of alternative methods of public service delivery can be a valued member of the leadership team responsible for making these decisions.
By the end of this chapter, y ...
eGovernment measurement for policy makersePractice.eu
Author: Jeremy Millard.
The eGovernment policy focus has moved over the last five years from being mainly concerned with efficiency to being concerned both with efficiency and effectiveness. This paper examines the current and future development of eGovernment policy making, and the critical role that measurement and impact analysis has in it.
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For this Unit 4 assignment, you will prepare an APA-formatted essa.docxhanneloremccaffery
For this Unit 4 assignment, you will prepare an APA-formatted essay of at least 500 words reflecting the opposing view of the topic that you selected in Unit 3.
When preparing an informative or expository essay, it is important to identify multiple perspectives. Investigating all sides of a topic enables you to interpret a larger picture and prepare logical content. In Unit 3, you selected a topic question, determined a viewpoint, and created your assignment based on that viewpoint. For Unit 4, you will write an APA-formatted essay on the opposite viewpoint of your selected topic.
Specifically, your submission must include the following:
· A title page with the correct APA formatting
· An abstract page with correct APA formatting
· An introduction paragraph based on the opposing viewpoint of your Unit 3 topic question
· This requires the creation of a new thesis statement.
· It requires 3 supporting subtopics.
· It requires the new thesis statement to be the last sentence of the introduction paragraph.
· Develop at least 3 transitional paragraphs. Transitional paragraphs are the expanded paragraph information based on your thesis subtopics.
· Develop a concluding paragraph. Remember to restate your thesis statement in the conclusion.
Readings and Notes “Levels of Evaluation”
Policy Evaluation
The notion of “systematic” policy and program evaluation only dates back to the 1970s when questions were raised about the outcomes of the Johnson era's War on Poverty programs. Simply, the poor did not seem too much better off, despite some programmatic attention--and dollars--spent on improving their situation. This story ends as it began. Recall that the first week discussed the emergence of hyperfederalism in which all parties (jurisdictions and agencies) try to get as much of the others' share without too much common (national) public good associated with their efforts.
One of the better-known War on Poverty programs was called the Model Cities Program. The original (White House) idea for this program was experimental. It called for funding a small number of large cities, such as New York, Philadelphia and Chicago with especially acute slum problems. When the bill went to Congress, it was clear that unless the base of (support for) the program grew, it would not pass. (Recall GCT on expanding the base to insure a bill's passage often waters down its original intentions, or, dissipates them.) A then leading senator, Senator Edward Muskie (D-Maine) said he would only vote for the bill if cities such as Augusta, Bangor and Portland were made eligible for aid. The bill passed in 1966 and even small cities like Poughkeepsie were not only eligible, but received money as well for public housing projects. By most people's sights, the program utterly failed to reduce the existence of slums anywhere. No one now knows whether the original intentions might have led to a greater chance for program success. Instead of massive funding for a few projects, t ...
Streams of Social Impact Work: Building Bridges in a New Evaluation Era with ...The Rockefeller Foundation
This working paper addresses the gaps and opportunities between the approaches of traditional public sector and NGO program evaluation and the social impact measurement approaches of new market-oriented players.
The authors posit that a convergence of these cultures would generate enormous rewards for both constituencies. New methodologies, evaluative tools and strategic learning processes would enrich social impact work, private giving and public-private partnerships. More nimble and business-like evaluation approaches would benefit traditional evaluation players and civil society. Thus bridging the divide would contribute to the rigor and utility of methods and practices and advance the effectiveness of evaluation everywhere.
Evaluation Policy Development of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (Smes) B...inventionjournals
Banyuwangi Regency is one of regencies in East Java province, Indonesia. This district is located in the eastern tip of the island of Java, and earned the nickname "The Sun Rise of Java", because of its location at the easternmost tip of the island of Java. Besides that Banyuwangi has interesting objects that make the region as a tourist lure for the domestic and non-domestic, known as the Diamond Triangle. Besides a potential in agriculture, Banyuwangi is an area of plantation crop production and forestry, as well as having the potential to be developed as a regional livestock is a source of new growth in the economy of the people. The existence of Marine and Fisheries Agency has benefits for society, business and local government.
Measuring the Dynamics of Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Nigeria,...iosrjce
The study examined the relationship between financial deepening and economic growth for the
period 1981 to 2013 using empirical evidence from Nigeria. The Engel-Granger two-step cointegration
procedures and Error Correction Model (ECM) were used as the method of estimation. The analyses of
residuals of the OLS regression showed evidence in favour of cointegration between financial deepening and
economic growth. Similarly, estimates from the error correction model provide evidence to show that financial
deepening indicators and GDP series converge to a long-run equilibrium at a reasonably fast rate. The result
points to the fact that the deepening of the financial system can engineer the Nigerian economy to greater
growth.
Measuring the Dynamics of Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Nigeria,...iosrjce
The study examined the relationship between financial deepening and economic growth for the
period 1981 to 2013 using empirical evidence from Nigeria. The Engel-Granger two-step cointegration
procedures and Error Correction Model (ECM) were used as the method of estimation. The analyses of
residuals of the OLS regression showed evidence in favour of cointegration between financial deepening and
economic growth. Similarly, estimates from the error correction model provide evidence to show that financial
deepening indicators and GDP series converge to a long-run equilibrium at a reasonably fast rate. The result
points to the fact that the deepening of the financial system can engineer the Nigerian economy to greater
growth.
International Economic Policy Analysis for Africa and developing countries.pptxGeorgeKabongah2
This course provides the theoretical, historical, institutional and technical background for effective advocacy of international economic policy.
The focus is on the political economy of international trade, foreign direct investment, exchange rates, portfolio capital flows and the balance of payments, industrial policy and international labor migration.
It is not a course on economics and students are not expected to have any background in the study of economics though some economic concepts will be employed and discussed.
Similar to Challenges in evaluating impact of sanctions – political vs economic perspective (20)
The Relationship between Human Rights and Disaster Risk Reduction Revisited: ...Paulina Pospieszna
This paper explores the link between human rights and disaster risk reduction. We
revisit the notion of a human rights-based approach in the context of natural disasters,
analyzing how this concept may contribute to greater accountability and empowerment
of those involved in disaster risk reduction. To better understand the processes of
empowering rights holders and holding duty bearers into account we adopt legal analytical
lenses. By doing so we review four country case studies and their main regulations
on disaster risk reduction, taking into account the extent to which they adopt a
human rights-based approach. We argue that countries whose legal frameworks allow
for community engagement point towards greater community empowerment.
Similarly, countries whose legal provisions make possible for holding States accountable
for their underperformance in disaster situations suggest greater levels of accountability.
We also consider key international human rights instruments binding the four case studies in order to analyze whether and to what extent international human
rights obligations may support advocacy and accountability in disaster risk reduction.
Based on the analysis of these case studies we consider that empowerment and
accountability processes in drr can reinforce each other, and that human rights may
contribute to progress in these areas.
Teaching Democracy and Active Citizenship through Citizenship Education: How ...Paulina Pospieszna
Citizenship education, i.e. activities aimee4ed to teach citizens of recipient countries basic values, knowledge, and skills how to be an active and engaged citizen, has become a popular form of empowering young people within democracy assistance of young democracies from Visegrad countries. This paper outlines some of the programs aimed at educating and activating young people in Eastern Europe to be more socially responsible for their local community, region, and country, and focuses on impact evaluation of these programs. Different methods used to evaluate the impact of the citizenship education programs are being presented and discussed together with their advantages and limitations. These suggestions can be useful for both practitioners whishing to learn whether their citizenship education programs produce impact, as well as for researchers wanting to answer the question whether and how citizenship education efforts of organizations from Visegrad countries influence young people.
Pomoc demokratyzacyjna polskich organizacji pozarządowych skierowana do Biało...Paulina Pospieszna
Wspieranie demokracji, czyli szczególny rodzaj pomocy zagranicznej
mający na celu promowanie idei i postaw demokratycznych, było dotychczas domeną
demokracji zachodnich. Dlatego badania w dziedzinie wspierania demokracji
zazwyczaj koncentrowały się na programach prowadzonych przez międzynarodowe
organizacje, bądź rządowe i pozarządowe organizacje, fundacje ze Stanów Zjednoczonych,
jak również z Europy Zachodniej. Jednakże niedawno do grona darczyńców
dołączyły również młode demokracje z Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej takie jak
Polska, Czechy, Słowacja bądź Węgry, które same tak niedawno były odbiorcami
tego typu pomocy. Biorąc jako studium przypadku działania Polski na Ukrainie i Białorusi
niniejszy artykuł analizuje działania polskich organizacji pozarządowych na
rzecz wspierania demokracji w krajach partnerskich w latach 1990–2015. Celem badań
było zbadanie przyczyn zaangażowania się polskich organizacji pozarządowych
we wspieranie demokracji, metod promowania idei i postaw demokratycznych oraz
charakteru współpracy ze społecznością obywatelską z krajów partnerskich.
Carrots or Sticks: The Choice and Impact of EU Democratic Sanctions and AidPaulina Pospieszna
Both the provision of democracy aid and the imposition of sanctions are tools to promote
democracy. Yet, it is unclear under which conditions states choose to set positive or negative
incentives. In order to answer which tool—democracy aid or democratic sanctions—is more
effective, one has to analyse the actual form of the provision of aid. Sanctions and democracy aid
can also be employed at the same time. The goal of this study is to determine their joint effect on
democratization in recipient countries. We argue that sending civil society aid or democracy aid
channeled through NGOs and the civil society when sanctions are in place, enhances the
effectiveness of sanctions as a democracy promotion tool because the civil society can be
empowered to introduce democratic changes in its country—so additionally to the top-down
pressure created by sanctions, there is bottom-up pressure exerted by the civil society. Our results
suggest that democratic sanctions are more likely to be successful if democracy aid bypasses the
government in a target state. Conversely, other forms of aid provision tend to decrease the
effectiveness of sanctions. In order to precisely explain the joint impact of positive and negative
incentives on democratization, we employ a new comprehensive dataset on economic sanctions
for the period between 1989 and 2015 which integrates and updates the Threats and Imposition of
Economic Sanctions and the GIGA sanctions data sets, merged with disaggregated OECD aid data
and V-Dem as well as PolityIV democracy scores.
Amplifying and nullifying the impact of democratic sanctions through aid to c...Paulina Pospieszna
Both foreign aid and sanctions are foreign policy tools to promote
democracy. Yet, it is unclear how far incentives and coercion
enhance democratization. Since sanctions and aid are often
employed at the same time, the goal of this study is to determine
their joint effect on democratization in target/recipient countries.
We argue that sending democracy aid through civil society organizations
enhances the effectiveness of sanctions as a democracy
promotion tool because the civil society is empowered to introduce
democratic changes. Thus, in addition to the top-down
pressure on the target government created by sanctions, there
is a bottom-up pressure exerted by the civil society. Our empirical
results show that democratic sanctions by the European Union
and the United States are more likely to have a positive effect
when aid flows bypass the government. Conversely, aid channeled
through the public sector mitigates the generally positive
effect of sanctions on democracy. In order to estimate these joint
effects, we employ a new comprehensive dataset on economic
sanctions: the EUSANCT Dataset which integrates and updates
existing databases on sanctions for the period between 1989 and
2015, merged with disaggregated OECD aid data and V-Dem
democracy scores.
Dispute or Mediator? : The Selection and Effectiveness of Conflict Management...Paulina Pospieszna
The literature on conflict management offers two explanations of why the effectiveness of third
parties to settle militarized disputes differs. The structural research tradition focuses on conflict
characteristics, while the individualist approaches highlight the background, skills and power
of a mediator, as well as the mediation strategy. This article reconciles these two approaches,
and examines especially the effectiveness of mediation strategies. Accounting for the selection
of mediation and the success of mediation attempts, we use the CWM 1945–2004 dataset.
The analysis demonstrates that mediators who were able to pursue a determined strategy face
a higher chance of success.
Democracy Assistance Efforts of Young Donors from the Visegrad Group: In Sear...Paulina Pospieszna
Until recently, the major donors in democracy assistance field were Western democracies and multilateral aid agencies; therefore the literature abounds with studies of aid coming from these donors. However, little is known about the effectiveness of democracy assistance from the young donor countries that not such as long time ago were recipient of this type aid. Much of democracy assistance work is done by civil society organizations that collaborate with partners in recipient countries within specific projects. How do these projects impact the beneficiaries of the project? How effective are these project in changing opinions and behaviors of the target groups? Finally, do they contribute to diffusing democratic ideas and behaviors? This paper demonstrates the shortcomings of existing impact evaluation methods to answer these questions and demonstrates the usefulness of randomization method that so far has been widely used in developmental aid.
Consensus against all odds: explaining the persistence of EU sanctions on RussiaPaulina Pospieszna
In response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine in 2014, the EU introduced
sanctions on Moscow. Despite increasing polarisation among member
states after imposition, the sanctions package was consistently
renewed. How can sanctions persistence be explained? While scholarly
accounts highlight German leadership, commitment to norms,
and policymakers’ engagement, the EU’s ability to uphold the
sanctions in the face of uneven support among member states
remains puzzling. With the help of a two-level game framework,
according to which actors make decisions based on the interplay
between the domestic and international levels, we argue that the
interaction between the Council and domestic politics helped sustaining
the consensus. To illustrate this dynamic, in an exploration
of domestic factions in Spain and Poland, two member states
displaying opposite attitudes towards Russia, we identify the presence
of at least one actor whose preference deviates from the core,
thereby facilitating consensus.
Supporting new media in Ukraine through Polish Development Cooperation ProgramPaulina Pospieszna
After the relatively successful system transformation, some young democratic countries from Central and Eastern Europe which used to receive democratic aid in the 1980s and 90s have engaged as new donors in assisting pro-democratic changes in other post-communist countries. The donor-recipient relations between two post-communist countries can be observed on the example of the development of cooperation between Poland and Ukraine. This paper deals with Polish assistance to new media in Ukraine in from 2007-2017 as a part of supporting democracy in Ukraine under the Polish Cooperation Development Program. Firstly, this work examines whether the Polish government's support of Ukrainian media as part of cooperation development will be sustained regardless of changes in the Polish government. Secondly, the paper explores whether Polish NGOs tailor their projects, financed by the Polish MFA, to the recipients' respective needs and the current situation in Ukraine. By examining Polish media assistance, the authors aim to explain the efforts of the new donor in developing media in a partner country, emphasizing the relation between the involvement of external actors and the presence of independent media which play an important role in democratization processes.
20 years of the ICRC Code of Conduct for Disaster Relief: What do we need to ...Paulina Pospieszna
The Code of Conduct for Disaster Relief of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) was written for use by the International Red Cross, Red Crescent Movements, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) working in disaster relief. The code was published just after the Rwanda genocide in April, 1994.1 The code consists of a purpose and four definitions; it outlines ten general principles of conduct, and includes three annexes of recommendations to governments of disaster-affected countries, donor governments, and intergovernmental organisations.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
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Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
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- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
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What is the point of small housing associations.pptx
Challenges in evaluating impact of sanctions – political vs economic perspective
1. DOI : 10.14746/pp.2016.21.4.12
Beata STĘPIEŃ, Paulina POSPIESZNA,
Joanna SKRZYPCZYŃSKA
Poznań
Challenges in evaluating impact of sanctions
– political vs economic perspective
Abstract: The aim of this paper is twofold: to highlight the need of combining economic and political
perspectives in analyzing sanctions outcomes, and to list and elaborate on challenges connected with
uniting these two standpoints and creating cohesive and valid measurement methods. We not only credit
this fusion as useful, but necessary to evaluate sanctions’efficiency and effectiveness. We display these
challenges in sanctions’ assessment and measurement by systematizing what we already know about
the sanction effectiveness in political science and economics literature and by demonstrating strengths
and weaknesses of some already published effectiveness evaluations. The paper is the part of the larger
research project that we recently embarked upon with aim to analyze the onset, economic impact and
effectiveness of sanctions imposed by the European Union1
.
Key words: international sanctions, effectiveness of economic sanctions, politics of sanctions, effec-
tiveness, efficiency
Introduction
The imposition of sanctions is one of strategies that states use to coerce target coun-
tries into altering their behavior by means of economic or political pain (e.g. Cran-
mer, Heinrich, Desmarais, 2014). The sanctions are used as a punishment tool, or a sign
of disapproval of the improper actions (see eg. Carter, 1987). Their expected (but maybe
a long term) outcome is the change of so far condemned behavior, as a response to a cost-
benefit calculus (Kirshner, 1997, 42).
There can be different triggers that may cause the sanction regime to be initiated such
as; human rights violations or swift deterioration; extreme forms of military violence
abroad or political violence in a country; flawed elections or other aggressive (domestic
or international) behavior. Expected outcomes of sanctions vary, but are mostly of po-
litical nature. By imposing sanctions senders expect from target countries’ governments
either a withdrawal of troops, an abandonment of the plans of territorial acquisition or
a termination of other military adventures. Sanctions are also imposed with intentions
to improve democracy performance (i.e. increase the level of democracy), enhance and
protect human rights, to halt a nuclear proliferation or better protect against international
terrorism (Hufbauer, Schott, Elliott, 1990).
Given a variety of sanction demands the literature differentiates between different
types of sanctions: military (e.g. arms embargoes); economic and financial (restrictions
on exports and imports; aid sanctions; freezing of funds or economic resources, prohibi-
tion on financial transactions, reducing investment) and political and diplomatic (e.g.
1
Project financed by National Centre of Science, Beethoven UMO-2014/15/G/HS5/04845.
2. 156 Beata STĘPIEŃ, Paulina POSPIESZNA, Joanna SKRZYPCZYŃSKA PP 4 ’16
recalling of ambassadors, expulsion of diplomats, halting diplomatic ties, suspension
of official visits). Economic sanctions of different kinds are the mostly used ones and
thus they receive the most attention in the scholarly literature (Drezner, 2003; Hufbauer,
Schott, Elliott, 1990; Lacy, Niou; Pape, 1997). Economic sanctions serve as “the delib-
erate, government inspired withdrawal or threat of withdrawal, of customary trade or
financial relations” (Hufbauer et al., 2009, p. 3).
However, when we consider the official statements, economic sanctions hardly ever
serve purely economic purposes. The most popular and officially announced grounds for
using these restrictive measures is to compel the sanctions’ recipients to change their be-
havior, perceived as politically and socially unacceptable by the sanctions’ senders. The
general aim of economic sanctions is to drastically raise the costs’of the target countr(ies)
transactions and, through this magnified burden, promote and cause a change in behav-
ior. Imposing costs through economic pressure serves here as means for changing the
behavior of a government in recipient country. The use of economic pressure helps to
achieve desirable goals while avoiding the military intervention (Baldwin, 1985).
For more than two decades political scientists debate over the effectiveness of eco-
nomic pressure (Barber, 1979; Drury, 1998; Hufbauer, Schott, Elliott, 1990; Kaempfer,
Lowenberg, 1988; Marinov, 2005). A substantial part of research on economic sanc-
tions focuses on sanction effectiveness and the conditions under which they are likely to
achieve their intended policy objectives.
Even though popular and extensively debated, the issue how to measure effectiveness
of economic sanctions, is still unsolved and open to many questions. The multitude of
publications in this area shows lingering inconsistency in both understanding the concept
of sanctions’ effectiveness and its’ assessment. In order to clarify the way we measure
this problem we have to answer to the following questions: How do political scientists
and economists understand and define sanctions’effectiveness and do these perspectives
converge? How does the understanding of sanctions’ effectiveness influence the way
their impact is measured? Do these assessments regard effectiveness, general outcomes
of sanctions or rather choose to focus on specific conditions of sanctions effectiveness?
The paper is structured as follows. Firstly, we delineate the differences between ef-
ficiency and effectiveness and then describe different approaches to studying sanction
effectiveness in political literature. Consecutive sections demonstrate the lack of consen-
sus among scholars regarding the sanction effectiveness, stemming either from different
time frame taken as the basis for analysis, different methodology adopted as well as from
different economic and political variables estimated. In the final section, we make some
generalizations arguing that in order to precisely evaluate the impact of sanctions we
should precisely define the nature of the concept we investigate together with clear-cut
outline of constituencies and the types of interplays we measure.
Efficiency vs. effectiveness of sanctions
According to R. Ackoff, the efficiency of an act relates either to the amount of re-
sources required to achieve a goal with a specified probability, or to the probability to
achieve this objective with a specified amount of resources (Ackoff, 1999, p. 170). It can
3. PP 4 ’16 Challenges in evaluating impact of sanctions... 157
also be defined as the ratio of inputs (in economics: resources) to outputs (a specified
outcome). Resources mean here both material and immaterial inputs (capital, work, land,
intellectual capital, information etc.), required to obtain the outcome. The efficiency can
be raised by combining physical resources with information and intellectual capital or by
boosting the probability of achieving the amount of output with the same resources given
to disposal. The main assumptions in evaluating the efficiency are that the outcome/goal
is well specified and the costs of the process can be traced and measured. The efficiency
describes the way we reach the expected outcome through rational (ie. volitional, based
on identified incentives, constraints etc.2
) costs’ optimization perspective. We can esti-
mate the level of efficiency relative to similar past events or to the other objects striving
at the same direction with the same outcome in mind.
The common understanding of the term “effectiveness”, however, is to conteptualise
as the ability to produce the desired outcomes, regardless the costs involved. Although
both terms, efficiency and effectiveness, are widely used in economics and manage-
ment to describe different aspects of economic processes and their results, there is also
a broader meaning, describing the organizational economic optimization (see eg. Quinn,
Rohrbaugh, 1983, Steers, 1975). In the latter sense, the effectiveness is a ratio of benefits
connected with the goal achievement juxtaposed to costs necessary to achieve them, but
the value of these benefits is subject to an individual (object) evaluation. The important
difference between effectiveness and efficiency lies in a meaning of “value”; the term that
changes the way we evaluate the costs of the actions leading to the outcome. Efficiency
term disregards the importance and the subjective value of the outcome. While having
the same efficiency in achieving the specific goal, various actors (humans, companies,
countries etc.) can differently perceive and evaluate the effectiveness of this process.
Given this differentiation between the terms as stated above, sanctions can be evalu-
ated, as:
efficient but ineffective (have the optimum input/output ratio, but do not produce the––
desired outcome),
efficient and effective (have the optimum input/ output ratio and produce the desired––
outcome),
inefficient but effective (input/output ratio is suboptimal or negative, but resulted in––
the desired outcome),
inefficient and ineffective (input/output ratio is suboptimal or negative and they do––
not produce the desired outcome).
However, the question is whether the political scientists make such distinction between
these conceptually different approaches to evaluation of sanctions. Thus, in the next sec-
tions, we present how scholars understand the effectiveness of sanctions, whether they adopt
a narrow or a broad definition and whether their understanding of measuring sanction effec-
tiveness changes with different time framework and different cost-benefit calculations.
2
Rationality in an economic understanding deals with means and ends ratio, but does not evaluate
the goal itself (if it is rational or not). Rationality strives at maximizing the way and means (inputs) to
reach the outcome, whatever the outcome is. Arrow (1986, p. 390) “… the everyday usage of the term
‘rationality’ does not correspond to the economist’s definition as transitivity and completeness, that is,
maximization of something. The common understanding is instead the complete exploitation of infor-
mation, sound reasoning, and so forth.”
4. 158 Beata STĘPIEŃ, Paulina POSPIESZNA, Joanna SKRZYPCZYŃSKA PP 4 ’16
Evolution in scientific focus on sanctions’ analysis
Thieler (2009) divides the sanctions literature into three phases. He points out that
the first stage of studying this phenomenon was typically characterized by optimism due
to the more or less effective use of this foreign policy tool to achieve its main aim. The
very first works on this topic considered economic sanctions or sanction threats to be ef-
fective once they achieved a foreign policy success; the sender’s objective was achieved
and sanctions played an important role in this outcome. In the second phase sanction
literature pulled into questioning the use of sanctions as an efficient and effective foreign
policy tool. Scholars at this stage began incorporating theoretical and analytical models
into their discussions to explain and predict the necessary conditions under which sanc-
tions do and should succeed and/or fail. The third phase in sanctions analysis is saturated
by skepticism and pushes towards identifying new methods achieve national agendas
through a fine-tuning of sanctions (Thieler, 2009, pp. 152–153).
Despite plethora of studies regarding the effectiveness of economic sanctions in
the last two decades, the mixed results of the various studies in the field show that po-
litical scientists seem to show lack of consensus regarding the usefulness of this for-
eign policy tool (Wallensteen, 1968, 2000; Doxey, 1971; Knorr, 1975; Barber, 1979;
Olson, 1979; Kaempfer, Lowenberg, 1988, 1992; Pape, 1997). This mixed results
could lie in the way the scholars define “success” of sanctions and how they measure
this concept. Scientists, in their attempt to answer the questions whether and under
what conditions the sanctions work focus on different areas of investigations. In many
cases they do not define what they mean by sanctions effectiveness and generally
investigate sanctions outcomes while stressing the conditions of sanctions’ failure or
success. To sum, the differences in the results obtained, stem from differences in: de-
fining the sanctions’ success, variables taken into assessment, method of assessment,
as well as timeframe (sanctions’ duration and their consequences in different phases
of their imposition).
The conditions for sanctions success
The most popular definition of sanction success adopted by the scholars considers
sanctions to be successful, and thus effective, when the target government agree to com-
ply with pressure and sanction demands, which would not be considered or even rejected
if the sanctions were not imposed. The political scientists tend to consider the sanctions
as a coercive diplomacy (Art, Cronin, 2003; Lindsay, 1986; Elliott, Uimonen, 1993;
Pape, 1997) and raise the question whether the pressure works – if and under what condi-
tions the leaders are ready to compromise under the pressure applied by sanctions. The
behavior of the sanction recipient country’s government seems to fit with rational choice
theory. Compliance with sanction demands, and thus sanction effectiveness, can be ex-
plained in terms of rational action of leaders; they would rather comply with the sender’s
demands than face the deterioration of their political power.
Marinov (2005) and Lektzian and Patterson (2015, p. 47) point out the effectiveness
may happen if sanctions destabilize the government’s position and open a bargaining
5. PP 4 ’16 Challenges in evaluating impact of sanctions... 159
range. Destabilization is a necessary condition for successful coercion. If sanctions re-
duce the wealth and political strength of governing groups (while simultaneously em-
powering potential challengers) then targeted governments will be more likely to make
the concessions demanded by the sender country in an effort to make sanctions stop
(Lektzian, Patterson, 2015). The authors also emphasize that sanctions should be con-
sidered as exogenous factors that reduce a country’s exposure to international trade. If
so, the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem should well explain the success of sanctions (or its
failure) by showing the divergent interests of different power groups and their conflicting
interests (when the owners of abundant factors will gain from free trade, and the owners
of scarce resources gain from trade protection).
However, in real life the economic pressure typically takes place alongside other im-
portant developments, therefore it’s challenging to disentangle these interconnected im-
pacts (Elliott 1998). Additionally, the perception of the goal achievement and the costs/
benefits calculation can be different to each state/interest group afflicted by sanctions’
imposition. As Marinov (2005, p. 565) points out “what is success and how is it meas-
ured is often contested even by the very participants in an episode.”
In evaluating sanctions’ outcomes we should also take into account spill – overs/ex-
ternalities; other possible consequences of sanctions that do not directly relate to meeting
the foreign policy goal of the sender’s country or spelled-out sanction demands.
Critics of sanctions say that sanctions are never effective because they harm the ci-
vilian population more than the targeted regimes (Cotright, 2001; Seekins, 2005). Tar-
geted, restrictive and “smart sanctions” designed to exert pressure directly on the ruling
elites and avoid negative impacts on the population as a whole are difficult to design.
Moreover, instead of creating dissatisfaction with the leadership, economic sanctions
may make citizens in the target country blame sender countries for their economic dif-
ficulties (Galtung, 1967) and have an opposite effect. Therefore, sanctions should be
tailored to hurt the government and core support groups within the target country and to
benefit, or at least avoid harming, the opposition (Kirshner, 1997, p. 42; 2002). On the
other side, the lack of sanctions has even been cited as contributing to the failure of some
opposition groups. Some scholars point out that sanctions support the government’s op-
position groups, and empower opposition campaigns and thus create a pressure on the
government to comply with the sanction demands. Chenoweth and Stephan (2011) refer
to sanctions against the apartheid in South Africa, that were critical in creating a bargain-
ing space for the resistance campaigns to come to the negotiating table. These examples
suggest that sanctions strengthen the opposition’s voice and its credibility, raising its
importance on the domestic political arena.
The studies presented above show that scholars attach different meanings to un-
derstanding the sanction effectiveness. Some of them adopt institutional explanations,
claiming that the effectiveness depends who is the target state, as well as rational
choice theories to explain under what conditions the elites may change the behavior in
line with sanction demands. Other scholars go beyond narrowly understood effective-
ness and examine the broader impact of sanctions. The differences between studies
on sanction effectiveness stem also from different methodology, cost-benefit calculus
and time framework are taken into account by the researchers as discussed in the next
sections.
6. 160 Beata STĘPIEŃ, Paulina POSPIESZNA, Joanna SKRZYPCZYŃSKA PP 4 ’16
Methodological approaches in evaluating the impact
of economic sanctions and their implications
The early studies about sanctions (before 1990) took a static view on the chang-
ing conditions during and post sanctioning episodes using case study approaches for
their analysis. These case-study approaches can effectively be described as documentary,
rather than basing discussions upon theoretical frameworks and the identification of vari-
ables affecting outcomes (eg. Hanlon, Omon, 1987). These authors neglect theoretical
frameworks for their discussion, but also were unable to take a long term perspective on
outcome (Thieler, 2009).
In 1987, Black and Cooper published the first attempt at an analytical sanctions mod-
el. The model developed primarily focused on measuring the welfare losses of states in
terms of consumer and producer surpluses. According to the authors, the identification of
surpluses provided a way for classifying whether or not sanctions had succeeded in their
efforts. This model did not attempt to identify the necessary conditions for success; how-
ever, it began the discussion on how to identify whether or not sanctions had achieved to
coerce a nation away from its course of action (Thieler, 2009, p. 153).
In 1990 the most cited sanctions literature was published by Hufbauer, Schott, and
Elliot. These scholars moved beyond a simple qualitative research approach to a quan-
titative research study of more than 100 sanctioning episodes. (Thieler, 2009, p. 154).
This study became the basis for future scholars to frame their discussions on the topic.
Hufbauer et al. estimated effectiveness of sanctions imposed between 1914 and 1990
using the gravity theoretical model and regression estimation technique. In original re-
search, they surveyed experts and constructed a “policy result”, as well as a “contri-
bution of sanctions to policy results” (all on an ordinal scale of 1–4), to measure the
success or failure of economic sanctions (Shojai, Root, 2013). Also other scholars used
gravity model approach, an estimation of the impact of economic negative sanctions on
international trade. For example Caruso studied panel gravity estimates of bilateral trade
between the U.S. and 49 target countries over the period 1960–2000, inclusive (e.g.,
Caruso, 2003).
Dashti-Gibson et al. (1997) used the same data collected by Hufbauer but employed
a logistic regression model to estimate effectiveness of sanction episodes from 1914 to
1989 in achieving their respective goals. They questioned the statistical construction of
the dependent variable used by Hufbauer et al. and, instead, developed a binary depend-
ent variable that assumes a value of one for success and zero for failure episodes. They
consider six dependent variables to explain success or failure of sanctions. These include
cost of sanctions to both target and sending country, political stability and economic
health of the target, the duration of sanctions, whether sanctions are financial or trade
sanctions, and a secular trend variable (see Shojai, Root, 2013).
Shin, Choi and Luo (2005) presented theoretical explanations about the impact of
sanctions on target countries’ economies, and collected extensive empirical data to test
such theoretical connections in following areas: international trade; foreign direct in-
vestment; and foreign portfolio investment. They collected the sanctions data from the
Threat and Imposition of Sanctions (TIES), World Bank’s (2012) and World Develop-
ment Indicators (WDI). Cross-national, time-series data analysis of 133 countries during
7. PP 4 ’16 Challenges in evaluating impact of sanctions... 161
the period from 1970 to 2005 showed that, regardless of the number of senders, the type
of sanctions or the level of anticipated costs to the target and the sender, economic coer-
cion damages none of the economic conditions of the target country. Their data analysis
shows that economic sanctions have no relation to these three economic activities of
target countries, whether the sanctions are imposed by the U.S. or a multilateral coali-
tion, and whether the sanctions are embargo, financial, or severe cost type, etc. They also
pointed out that an economic embargo does not really hurt the economic conditions of
a target country and that business firms do not necessarily lose on trade with sanctioned
countries (Shin, Choi, Luo, 2005, pp. 2–3).
Some studies over sanctions effectiveness are not so extensive in data – mining, but
elegantly show the point that the author is making. Marinov (2005) used panel data from
136 countries from over 37 years and found out that the presence of sanctions against
a government leader in a given year makes her or him significantly more likely to lose
power in the following year (Marinov, 2005, pp. 564–565).
The importance of time framework in evaluation of the sanctions’ effectiveness
While judging the effectiveness of restrictive measures, the time span of analysis is
of a crucial importance. The economic consequences of such sudden external changes
differ considerably when we measure them in the period of an institutional turmoil or eg.
in a new equilibrium situation. New institutional economics perspective3
allows treating
sanctions’ imposition as an abrupt, external change of the formal rules of the game (see
eg. North, 1993). Transactions costs are suddenly raised for all actors suffering from this
change (in senders’, target and third countries already involved in operations in a target
country). Some of present and already anticipated future benefits are lost, new proce-
dures, alternative plans and behaviors have to be invented, an additional time and capital
needs to be invested in order to recognize the nature of change and develop new ways of
functioning on the market. As some old mechanisms of playing the game have proven
illegal, irrelevant or inefficient, the new ways and solutions have to be created in order
to survive and prosper on the market.
Over the time a new equilibrium will be established with a different transaction costs’
and benefits ratio, where the losses will be mediated by new opportunities discovered
and new resources (eg. capabilities, information) acquired. However, the important
question remains: how much time (and costs born) is needed to establish this new point
of equilibrium? Sanctions endurance and the level of harm they cause is of crucial im-
portance here, as the stronger they disturb and persist, the higher the probability of their
effectiveness. Sanctions effectiveness over time is the function of the demand and sup-
ply elasticity of banned/restricted resources, together with their substitution possibility.
Resources’ flows restrictions would likely work better, if the banned resources are used
extensively in the target country, conform substantially to GDP creation and are hardly
replaceable (e.g. have no or few local substitutes with the target country turning towards
an autarkic market).
3
New institutional economics composes of a historical, political and transaction costs economics
stream.
8. 162 Beata STĘPIEŃ, Paulina POSPIESZNA, Joanna SKRZYPCZYŃSKA PP 4 ’16
A mid-term success of an imposed sanction can be a conflict or political turmoil in
the target country (Kaempfer, Lowenberg, 1988; Marinov, 2005; Nossal, 1989), that
would lead in a long term to expected local and international governmental reshuffles
and finally to a profitable economic transactions for those countries, who had properly
foreseen sanctions’ outcomes and prepared to optimize their benefits. According to Hovi
et al. (2005) sanctions can be considered effective even if they do not result in a desired
policy shifts, but deteriorate the international position of a target country, by symboli-
cally signaling the international disapproval for its actions.
Lektzian and Patterson (2015) test sanctions’ effectiveness with use of Stolper–Sam-
uelson theorem and prove empirically, that the sanctions bring better results over the
long period of time, once they harm owners and intensive users of abundant factors in
countries with open-trade policies or when they are imposed on scarce factors in coun-
tries closed to trade. These important findings shed a new light on sanctions’ effective-
ness evaluation. Firstly, they show the need to analyze sanctions effectiveness through
the prism of resources elasticity and their substitution effect over time4
. At the same time
they open new areas for future investigation, as the broader the group of resources exam-
ined, the more imprecise the elasticity indicators. The importance of the given resources’
investigations brings us to the next section – sanctions’ costs calculation.
The costs and benefits calculation in sanctions’ outcomes evaluation
The sanction, in order to be effective, has to deprive the recipient country of the
present and future benefits in a way that would divert the actions of the ruling elites
into the desired (by a sender) ones. Effective sanctions reshape the policy of the target
country in a relatively short time and with a less amount of costs than benefits involved.
But the sanctions do not hit the political power groups directly; they do so through the
influence of other, economic or public/social actors.
Soest and Wahman (2015) make a point, that the imposition of sanctions or sanction
threats happens according to cost-benefit calculus of the sender country, which includes
three elements: 1) the domestic and global pressure to impose sanctions on the target;
2) target vulnerability; 3) the anticipated sender costs (if political and economic costs are
low, sanction senders are more likely to impose sanctions). The sanction effectiveness is
already calculated when sanctions are imposed; when the target is more vulnerable the
likelihood of success is greater.
According to Caruso “the efficacy of sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy is
still in great doubt. One of the main features in this kind of works is the focus on the costs
of sanctions” (Caruso, 2003, p. 2). Thus, in order to calculate the expected effectiveness
of sanctions we need to determine the correlation between the costs/benefits ratio for eco-
nomic, social and political groups (either affected by a sanction or gaining from change
caused by its operation) and the elasticity to change of those holding the political power.
Some studies (eg. Nooruddin, 2002; Drury, 1998; Hufbauer et al., 1990; Lam, 1990;
Lindsay, 1986) show the positive correlation between the level of economic costs im-
4
The substitution effect decreases over time, as novel ways to switch into alternative resources are
invented.
9. PP 4 ’16 Challenges in evaluating impact of sanctions... 163
plied by sanction in a target country and an increased probability to achieve political
goals, but there are still doubts to its existence (Major, McGann, 2005, p. 339). These
contradictory results can stem from:
the different definition and then examination of interest groups that are hit by or––
gain from the sanctions’ imposition (see eg. Lektzian, Souva, 2007; Major, McGann,
2005; Kaempfer, Lowenberg, 1988),
a different period of sanctions’ operation,––
different political and social settings of a target countries, resulting in a different “im-––
pact factor” together with the curvilinear nature of elasticity function.
The “impact factor” means here the level of political responsiveness towards social
or economic pressure. Political power groups may be more responsive and willing to
change the behavior when the threat of losing the future benefits will gain on the prob-
ability in a short time (e.g.. forthcoming elections, sudden rise of political opponents’
power) or the future consequences are unacceptable for present power elites (e.g.. im-
prisoning thread, war). Evaluating the propensity of power elites to change the local
statecraft has to be done with one important stipulation; real threads and future benefits
losses can be disregarded due to e.g.. inability to anticipate them or the tendency to un-
derestimate their future impact.
Proper and precise costs’ calculation of sanction not only requires finding out the ob-
jects bearing its’costs (ie. costs centers), but also demands costs’categorization, identifi-
cation and finding the universal method of its quantification. As some of the costs can be
easily quantified (as they are reflected in FDI downturns, export/import and capital shifts
etc.), the others; such as costs of capabilities, procedural adjustment elicited by sanctions
are largely not reflected in account books of the companies, but are also highly subjec-
tive. The most problematic stays measurement of social harm caused by sanctions.
But measuring sanctions’ impact on target countries economy may result in a con-
clusion that they are efficient, but ineffective. The empirical findings support this effi-
ciency and effectiveness disjunction (Bonetti, 1998; Jing, Kaempfer, Lowenberg, 2003;
Nooruddin, 2002). However, according to Bapat “even when we consider the cost of
sanctions, which many see as the most important predictor of sanctions success, the
empirical findings are not conclusive” (Bapat et al, 2013, p. 80). A significant portion of
the research do not guide policymakers as to when and how an economic sanction may
be effective.
Economists have analysed the phenomenon of negative sanctions in several ways.
For example, Bhagwati and Srinivasan (1976) and Tolley and Wilman (1977) note that
the trade embargo on a country’s imports can be analyzed as a market-disruption phe-
nomenon. The findings show that the optimal response of an economy does not depend
only upon government choices (e.g. tariffs or subsidy), but also on the behavior of in-
dividuals consumers and producers. In non-embargo periods domestic suppliers tend to
increase production and demanders decrease consumption. Thus, the marginal value of
consumption raises less than the marginal cost of production (Caruso, 2003, pp. 7–8).
Another scholars point out that the potential economic effectiveness of sanctions de-
pends on their oligopoly power in restricting sales and raising prices (e.g Bayard et al.,
1983). The larger is the share of exports controlled by a cartel of exporters, the easier it
is to inflict damage. Thus, sanctions are likely to be more effective if they do not need to
10. 164 Beata STĘPIEŃ, Paulina POSPIESZNA, Joanna SKRZYPCZYŃSKA PP 4 ’16
rely on many small exporters to control a large share of world exports. This cost-benefit
calculus also includes the benefits and costs for a sender’s country. Sender countries have
reason to avoid imposing sanctions if the restriction of business transactions with target
states may undermine their companies’ competitiveness relative to foreign firms (Bapat,
Kwon, 2014; Dorussen, 2009).
Conclusions
Measuring the success of economic sanctions is challenging. The literature has
identified many determinants of sanctions success, but the empirical findings showing
the impact of particular factors on sanctions’ effectiveness have been inconclusive. The
question – are sanctions effective? – still remains open to discussion, as the answer to it
is so far given with a different understanding of a term discussed, with a usage of variety
of different (and often institutionally incomparable) sanctions cases, with different time
framework analyzed and divergent indicators and relations examined.
In order to measure the effectiveness of sanctions, the necessary conditions (and one
of the major challenges) is to identify and then to estimate precisely:
their expected outcomes; not only economic, but also social, political, environmental––
ones; but it would be elusive and unachievable to measure all these areas with a us-
age of one, compound method due to the different categories of costs and benefits
involved;
the time framework available for the goal achievement, together with the time span,––
when the sanctions consequences will appear and affect various interest groups on
respective analytical levels;
the types of resources and interest groups restricted/harmed by sanctions’ imposition––
and, stemming from these, the amount of costs/benefits ratio, that the sanctions will
bear (before, during and after their enforcement) to these groups.
Another challenge lies in the sanctions’ goal composition; interconnectedness of po-
litical, social and economic purposes (both publically exposed and those behind diplo-
matic curtains) together with subjective value attached to them.
The economic tools used and their consequences are auxiliary and are supposed to
lead to political shifts in a target country behavior. But in order to anticipate the ef-
fectiveness of these restrictive tools we have to not only know the amount of “harm”
caused by sanctions on economic and social interest groups, but to learn its possible
impact on political elites. Economically efficient sanctions, that have produced the
desired economic outcome and have proven efficient in a given period of time, can
stay politically ineffective, as they inadequately elicit groups in power to implement
governmental or institutional revisions. Although it seems possible (although not un-
problematic) to measure the economic impact of respective sanctions on various inter-
est groups in a given period of time, there is still a major challenge (both for economics
and political science academics) to find convincing tools to grasp and measure this
impact on political elites and then to anticipate the response to this impact. The ques-
tion is rather not about the strength of this impact, but – again – about its effectiveness
and efficiency.
11. PP 4 ’16 Challenges in evaluating impact of sanctions... 165
Another challenge in sanctions effectiveness assessment lies in the ability to learn the
expected outcomes behind sanctions. Official announcements do not necessarily expose
all motives and grounds behind sanctions. Certain economic and/or political benefits for
the sender countries, that could be achieved via these restrictive measures have to stay
behind the scenes, but may serve as important trigger (maybe more important than of-
ficial ones) for sanctions’ imposition. Sanctions can for example:
1) divert the attention of local public and political opponents from domestic economic/
political problems and concentrate efforts towards battle against the external “en-
emy” – a sanction sender;
2) bulwark or foreshadow a further, military intervention in the region (the one that
proliferates in e.g. valuable resources or serves as a promising market for the senders’
country goods and services);
3) strengthen the political position of the senders’ country on international arena, that
will consequently transmit into economic gains (e.g. through the mandate to set new
rules of the international economic and political game).
Discovering the palette of grounds behind the sanctions changes the way we evaluate
their effectiveness. If the goal of a sanction is to maintain power in a senders’country (by
diverting attention from local problems), its effectiveness should be judged in terms of
a time span and costs closely related to the outcome achievement in a senders’ country.
Economic and social consequences (for the senders’, target country or on an interna-
tional arena) together with possible policy changes will be side-effects of the sanction
imposition, regardless their present scope and future impact.
Evaluation of sanctions’ effectiveness differs at meta, macro, micro and individual
scale level, as the different outcomes are anticipated and respectively different types of
costs and benefits should be calculated. As sanctions often serve as a last non-military
diplomatic tool to change/stop unacceptable behavior of the target country, the costs of
implementing such restrictive measures should not only be calculated in collation with
benefits they would yield, but relatively to the costs of alternative military actions and
their outcomes. For enterprises operating in the given institutional framework, sanctions
imposition raises the transactions costs in the short run, but can serve as an incentive to
look for new business opportunities. Stable and predictive business environment lessens
transaction costs and helps to build relational trust between the partners but can also act
as a structural inertia amplifier. Sudden external changes of environmental constraints
(here legal bans imposed by sanctions) raise the costs of present and future business co-
operation, but the level of trust between the partners serves as the solid basis for future
business restoration.
By elaborating above, we believe, that clarifying the viewpoint (e.g. a macro, send-
er’s country, long-term, political, goal – achievement perspective) in sanctions assess-
ments, together with specifying (if taken into account) the types of costs and benefits
analyzed, would greatly enhance the possibility to find confluences and disparities
between the results. Then we would not only be able to better see the grounds for in-
conclusive results but also, by building on already existing research body, find more
tuned methods to investigate the causes and interplays between sanctions’ efficiency
and effectiveness.
12. 166 Beata STĘPIEŃ, Paulina POSPIESZNA, Joanna SKRZYPCZYŃSKA PP 4 ’16
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Wyzwania w ocenie wpływu sankcji – perspektywa polityczna a ekonomiczna
Streszczenie
Cel tego artykułu jest dwojaki. Pierwszy, to podkreślenie konieczności połączenia perspektywy
ekonomicznej i politycznej w ocenie skutków sankcji. Drugi, to diagnoza i analiza wyzwań związa-
nych z połączeniem tych perspektyw w taki sposób, aby stworzyć spójny oraz rzetelny merytorycznie
i metodycznie sposób pomiaru tego zjawiska. Połączenie perspektywy ekonomicznej i politologicznej
uznajemy nie tyle za pożyteczne, co niezbędne do prawidłowej oceny efektywności i skuteczności
sankcji. Wyzwania związane z integrowaniem perspektyw i wypracowaniem narzędzi pomiaru pre-
zentujemy przez pryzmat krytycznej analizy dotychczasowych badań dotyczących oceny skuteczności
14. 168 Beata STĘPIEŃ, Paulina POSPIESZNA, Joanna SKRZYPCZYŃSKA PP 4 ’16
i efektywności sankcji, ukazując każdorazowo mocne i słabe strony zastosowanego podejścia. Artykuł
jest częścią większego projektu dotyczącego przesłanek, ekonomicznego wpływu i skuteczności sank-
cji nakładanych przez Unię Europejską.
Słowa kluczowe: sankcje międzynarodowe, skuteczność sankcji gospodarczych, polityka sankcji, sku-
teczność, efektywność
Article submitted: 01.11.2016; accepted: 20.11.2016.