IFPRI-ESSP2 Conference October 22-24, 2009

1. Cereal Production and Technical Change in Ethiopia
Alejandro Nin-Pratt, Binxing Yu, José Funes and Sinafikeh Asrat
Presented by
John Hoddinott on behalf of Alejandro Nin-Pratt
Paper prepared for the IFPRI – ESSP2 conference
Addis Ababa, October 22-24, 2009
Wednesday, November 04, 2009

2. Introduction
• Increasing yields is critical for sustaining output growth in Ethiopian
agriculture.
• Improved agricultural technologies are critical for yield growth
• Given this, this presentation focuses on two questions:
– What factors assist, or inhibit , the adoption of these technologies
– What are the consequences of their adoption for yields
• In developing this work, we draw on very rich data, the Agricultural
Sample Survey (AgSS), nationally representative data made available to
the research team by the Central Statistical Agency
Page 2

3. ADOPTION
Page 3

4. Trends in the use of fertilizer and improved seeds
Area (1000 ha) sown to barley, maize, sorghum, teff and wheat
Page 4

5. Page 5

6. What factors are associated with the adoption of fertilizer and
improved seeds at the plot level?
• Pool data across four years and use logit estimation model to plot level
outcomes
• Two outcomes
– Fertilizer is applied to this plot (=1 if yes, 0 otherwise)
– Fertilizer and improved seeds are applied to this plot (=1 if yes, 0 otherwise)
• Factors
– Time trend (captures secular factors that affect adoption)
– Number of oxen available to the plot holder
– Suitability of the area for production of the crop grown on the plot (wereda-level
aggregate)
– Population density per square kilometer (wereda-level aggregate)
– All-weather road density in meters per square kilometer (wereda-level aggregate)
– Holder used extension services
– Holder used credit
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7. Marginal effects of different variables on the probability of
adopting fertilizer
0.45
0.4
Year
0.35
Oxen
0.3
Suitability
0.25
Population density
0.2
All-weather road density
0.15
Extension
0.1
Credit
0.05
Improved seed
0
-0.05 Maize Teff Wheat
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8. Marginal effects of different variables on the probability of
adopting fertilizer and improved seeds
0.2
0.15 Year
Oxen
0.1 Suitability
Population density
0.05 All-weather road density
Extension
0 Credit
Maize Wheat
-0.05
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9. IMPACT
Page 9

10. Average cereal yields obtained using different combination of
inputs (tons)
Fertilizer & local seed Improved seed no fertilizer
Improved seed and fertilizer Local seed no fertilizer
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2003 2004 2006 2007
Page 10

11. Difference in yield obtained by holders with access to
extension and credit
Disaggregated by adopters and non-adopters of modern inputs
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Adopters Non-adopters Adopters Non-adopters
Extension Credit
Only differences shown in red are statistically significant
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12. Summary
• Based on these preliminary results:
– Access to modern crop technologies are “tightly wedded” to access
to extension services
– Yield improvements are the outcome of a package deal, where the
package includes fertilizers and seeds and extension services
• Future work;
– Use more data rounds
– Increase sophistication of the empirical analysis: Examine production
frontiers, technical efficiency, changes in total factor productivity
– “Unpack” the package nature of the drivers of yield improvements
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