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Friday, June 25, 2010<br />Cereal Production and Technology Adoption in Ethiopia<br />BingxinYu<br /> Alejandro Nin-Pratt<...
Background<br />Economic growth strategy (1991) defined the PADETES (Participatory Demonstration and Training Extension Sy...
Goals<br />Assess the extent of the adoption of the fertilizer-seed technology “package” promoted by PADETES since 1996, <...
Outline<br />Data<br />Evidence on adoption<br />Trends of fertilizer and improved seed use<br />Spatial distribution of t...
Data <br />CSA Annual Sample Surveys 2003/04 – 2007/08<br />Nationally representative annual series<br />Data available at...
Evidence of technology adoption: total cereals<br />Page 6<br />
Evidence of adoption: by crop beginning and end of period<br />Page 7<br />
Contribution of traditional and modern technology to yield growth<br />Page 8<br />
Efficiency and technical frontier movements explaining yield growth (annual growth rate %)<br />Page 9<br />
Average level of efficiency achieved on production of maize, teff and wheat under different technologies<br />Page 10<br />
Double Hurdle (DH) model (Cragg 1971)<br />Two stages<br />    1. farmers decide whether or not to use fertilizer<br />   ...
Double Hurdle (DH) model (Cragg 1971)<br />Separating households into 3 groups: <br />   1. households applying modern tec...
Factors affecting probability of adoption<br />Page 13<br />
Factors affecting quantities of fertilizer and improved seed used (given adoption)<br />Page 14<br />
Factors affecting quantities of fertilizer and improved seed used (given adoption)(con’d)<br />Page 15<br />
Conclusions<br />The promoted technology combining the use of improved seed varieties and chemical fertilizers has not bee...
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Cereal Production and Technology Adoption in Ethiopia

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Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Seventh International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, EEA Conference Hall, Addis Ababa, June 26, 2010

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Cereal Production and Technology Adoption in Ethiopia

  1. 1. Friday, June 25, 2010<br />Cereal Production and Technology Adoption in Ethiopia<br />BingxinYu<br /> Alejandro Nin-Pratt<br /> José Funes<br />SinafikehAsrat<br />June 2010<br />
  2. 2. Background<br />Economic growth strategy (1991) defined the PADETES (Participatory Demonstration and Training Extension System ) to increase cereal yields through:<br />Integrated program of extension, seed, fertilizer and credit<br />Public sector dominant seed sector<br />Private sector disengaged from fertilizer market<br />Guaranteed credit reached some four million farmers<br />Limited success of public interventions in promoting price stability and improving grain markets<br />Page 2<br />
  3. 3. Goals<br />Assess the extent of the adoption of the fertilizer-seed technology “package” promoted by PADETES since 1996, <br />Project future adoption prospects under present policy<br />Derive implications to increase the use of inputs and accelerate output and productivity growth in cereal production <br />Page 3<br />
  4. 4. Outline<br />Data<br />Evidence on adoption<br />Trends of fertilizer and improved seed use<br />Spatial distribution of technology use<br />Impact of adoption: yields<br />Explaining adoption: The model<br />Empirical results<br />Discussion and implications<br />Page 4<br />
  5. 5. Data <br />CSA Annual Sample Surveys 2003/04 – 2007/08<br />Nationally representative annual series<br />Data available at plot level<br />Detailed information on area, production and input use for all crops<br />Wereda level information, accounting for heterogeneity in spatial distribution of: <br />Natural resources<br />Infrastructure<br />market access. <br />Page 5<br />
  6. 6. Evidence of technology adoption: total cereals<br />Page 6<br />
  7. 7. Evidence of adoption: by crop beginning and end of period<br />Page 7<br />
  8. 8. Contribution of traditional and modern technology to yield growth<br />Page 8<br />
  9. 9. Efficiency and technical frontier movements explaining yield growth (annual growth rate %)<br />Page 9<br />
  10. 10. Average level of efficiency achieved on production of maize, teff and wheat under different technologies<br />Page 10<br />
  11. 11. Double Hurdle (DH) model (Cragg 1971)<br />Two stages<br /> 1. farmers decide whether or not to use fertilizer<br /> Access to fertilizer/improved seed<br /> 2. decide the quantity to use<br />Page 11<br />Demand for fertilizer/improved seed<br />
  12. 12. Double Hurdle (DH) model (Cragg 1971)<br />Separating households into 3 groups: <br /> 1. households applying modern technology<br /> Y>0 if Y*>0 and A*>0<br /> 2. households wanting to adopt but reporting no positive application<br /> Y=0 if Y*>0 but A*<=0<br /> 3. households choosing not to adopt<br /> Y=0 if Y*<=0 regardless A*<br />more efficient and consistent ML estimates<br />Page 12<br />
  13. 13. Factors affecting probability of adoption<br />Page 13<br />
  14. 14. Factors affecting quantities of fertilizer and improved seed used (given adoption)<br />Page 14<br />
  15. 15. Factors affecting quantities of fertilizer and improved seed used (given adoption)(con’d)<br />Page 15<br />
  16. 16. Conclusions<br />The promoted technology combining the use of improved seed varieties and chemical fertilizers has not been adopted as such<br />With the exception of wheat, the use of fertilizer appears to have relatively little impact on yields<br />Low efficiency in the use of fertilizer<br />The share of cereals produced using the new technology is still low, with decreasing or even negative rates of adoption in recent years. <br />High fixed cost of “knowledge” to access technology is main factor affecting adoption<br />Page 16<br />

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