- The document summarizes the EU's Fit-for-55 climate package targets which aim to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030. The targets are most stringent for sectors that are generally less labor intensive like power and heavy industry (-61% emissions) versus transport and buildings (-40%). - Employment opportunities are projected to decline the most (-4%) for blue collar and farm workers by 2030 under Fit-for-55. Demand for skills related to technology and services are projected to increase the most. - Analysis of skills similarity shows some industry sectors have more opportunities for blue collar worker transitions within clusters than others as sectors transition by 2030.

1. Francesca BORGONOVI
Francesca.borgonovi@oecd.org
OECD Centre for Skills
https://www.oecd.org/skills/centre-for-skills
INSIGHTS AND EXPERIENCES
WITH ENABLERS FOR JUST
TRANSITION PATHWAYS
Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change
Paris 12-13 September 2023

2. 2
Economy-wide emissions targets in 2030 in the EU Fit-for-55
package
Scope Sectors covered
Emission
reduction
objective in
2030
compared
to
All sectors All the economy -55% 1990 levels
EU-ETS
sectors
• Powered electricity
• Other energy-intensive industries (e.g. steel,
cement, glass, paper)
• Air transport
• Maritime transport (added in new Fit-for-55 package)
-61% 2005 levels
ESR sectors
• Road transport
• Buildings
• Agriculture
• Waste
• Small industries
-40% 2005 levels

3. 3
Most stringent targets on sectors that are generally less
labour intensive
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sectoral share in CO2 emissions in 2019 Sectoral share in employment in 2019

4. 4
The evolution of employment opportunities will differ across
sectors
-80
-40
0
40
80
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Other energy-
intensive
industries
Chemicals Non metallic
minerals
Iron and steel Non ferrous
metals
Air and water
transport
Refining activities Fossil fuels
powered
electricity
Other electricity
%
Million Panel A: Emissions Trading System (ETS) sectors
-80
-40
0
40
80
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Public
services
Business
services
Other
services
Agriculture
and food
Construction Other
manufacturing
Transport and
electric
equipement
Land
transport
Other Fossil fuels
extraction
and
distribution
Renewables
and
nuclear
electricity
%
Million Panel B: Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) sectors
2019 employment in million persons
% change in employment in 2030 in the Fit for 55 scenario compared to 2019 (right y-axis)
% change in 2030 employment in the Baseline scenario compared to 2019 (right y-axis)

5. Employment opportunities for blue collar and farm workers will
decline by 2030
5
% changes in employment
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Blue collar and farm
workers
Clerical workers Managers and officials Professionals Service and sales
2030 Baseline compared to 2019 2030 Fit for 55 compared to 2030 Baseline
2030 Fit for 55 compared to 2019

6. Skills increasing the most in demand in the Fit for 55 scenario
6
The demand for skills related to technology and
services are projected to increase most
Making Decisions and Solving Problems
Oral Expression
Sales and Marketing
Computers and Electronics
Language
Economics and Accounting
Customer and Personal Service
Administration and Management
Medicine and Dentistry
Production and Processing
Communications and Media
Personnel and Human Resources
Food Production
Programming
Time Management
Web platform development software
Operating system software
Analytical or scientific software
Interacting With Computers
Analyzing Data or Information
Assisting and Caring for Others
Communicating with Persons Outside Organization
Performing General Physical Activities
Provide Consultation and Advice to Others
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Performing Administrative Activities
Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal
Relationships
Leadership
Initiative
Achievement/Effort
Dependability
Selling or Influencing Others

7. Skills increasing the most in demand in the Fit for 55 scenario
7
The demand for skills related to technology and
services are projected to increase
Making Decisions and Solving Problems
Oral Expression
Sales and Marketing
Computers and Electronics
Language
Economics and Accounting
Customer and Personal Service
Administration and Management
Medicine and Dentistry
Production and Processing
Communications and Media
Personnel and Human Resources
Food Production
Programming
Time Management
Web platform development software
Operating system software
Analytical or scientific software
Interacting With Computers
Analyzing Data or Information
Assisting and Caring for Others
Communicating with Persons Outside Organization
Performing General Physical Activities
Provide Consultation and Advice to Others
Guiding, Directing, and Motivating Subordinates
Performing Administrative Activities
Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal
Relationships
Leadership
Initiative
Achievement/Effort
Dependability
Selling or Influencing Others

8. 8
Skills similarity and employment projections for blue collar
and farm workers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1, 2, 87, 91
17, 53, 66
12, 14, 16, 18, 22, 23, 36, 95
3, 75, 97
13, 15, 6
92
39, 60
8
11, 19
33, 5
50, 7
9, 99
20, 21, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 35, 37, 38,41, 42,
43, 45, 49, 51, 52, 59, 61, 77, 79, 81, 84, 90, 93, 94, 96
10, 46, 47, 55, 56, 58, 62, 63, 64, 65, 68, 69,
70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 78, 80, 82, 85, 86, 88
%
Increasing industry sector Decreasing industry sector
Dendrogram illustrating sectors based on skills similarity for blue collar workers, employment shares in 2019
Projected evolution between 2019 and 2030 under the implementation of Fit for 55
2, 60, 87
1, 36, 37, 39, 91
0, 24, 25, 28, 30, 31, 38, 42, 43, 45,
53, 55, 66, 77, 81, 94, 96
27, 29, 32, 33, 49, 52, 90
47, 56, 58, 59, 61, 62, 63,
4, 78, 79, 80, 82, 84, 85, 86, 88, 93
92
99
50
75, 97
19
6, 95
Increasing industry sector Decreasing industry sector
Sectors with few within-cluster
transition opportunities
Sectors with several
within-cluster transition
opportunities

9. 9
Sectors with several within-cluster transition opportunities
-30000
-10000
10000
30000
50000
70000
90000
110000
Absolute employment gains and losses by sector

10. 10
Sectors with limited within-cluster transition opportunities
-500000
-400000
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
Absolute employment gains and losses by sector

11. THANK YOU!
11