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  1	
  
CASE STUDY
2
H e l si n k i 	
  Me tr o p o l ia 	
  & 	
   H T W 	
   Be r l i n 	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Masters	
  of	
  Construction	
  &	
  Real	
  Estate	
  Management	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Electrical	
  Energy	
  Crisis	
  in	
  
Pakistan	
  
1
By: Musa Raza
Professor: Eric Pollock
 2	
  
TABLE	
  OF	
  CONTENTS	
  
INTRODUCTION	
   3	
  
MEANS	
  OF	
  ELECTRICITY	
  GENERATION	
  IN	
  PAKISTAN	
   6	
  
REVIEW	
  OF	
  RENEWABLE	
  ENERGY	
  PROJECTS	
   9	
  
OVERVIEW OF RECENT WIND ENERGY PROJECTS IN PAKISTAN	
   10	
  
OVERVIEW	
  OF	
  RECENT	
  SOLAR	
  POWER	
  PROJECTS	
   13	
  
OVERVIEW	
  OF	
  HYDROPOWER	
  STATIONS	
   16	
  
BRIEF	
  IMPACT	
  REVIEW	
  OF	
  2-­‐DAMS	
  CONSTRUCTION	
  CASES	
   18	
  
NUCLEAR	
  POWER	
  STATIONS	
  STATUS	
  IN	
  PAKISTAN	
   19	
  
PAKISTAN	
  NUCLEAR	
  POWER	
  REACTORS	
   20	
  
USE	
  OF	
  BIO	
  MASS	
  FOR	
  ELECTRICITY	
  PRODUCTION	
  IN	
  PAKISTAN	
   20	
  
IMPACTS	
  OF	
  ELECTRICITY	
  OUTAGES	
   21	
  
CAUSES	
  OF	
  ELECTRICITY	
  SHORTAGES	
  IN	
  PAKISTAN	
   22	
  
CONCLUSION	
   24	
  
SUGGESTIONS	
  &	
  RECOMMENDATIONS	
   25	
  
REFERENCES	
   26	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
  3	
  
INTRODUCTION	
  
The electric power outages is the current major crisis in Pakistan which does not seems to land
somewhere and the major causes are use of expensive ways of production, political influence,
lack of education and poverty. Despite availability of several natural resources the energy crisis
are getting worse, this is because of poor planning for exploration of available resources and
their usage for electricity generation. Pakistan is blessed with a lot of natural resources and the
proper utilization; exploration and management can help improving the economic situation of
the state. Government and a few private organizations control major part of power sectors in
Pakistan. Major means of electric power production are oil & gas, LPG and hydroelectricity.
WAPDA is the governing body for electric production and supply. There are different sub
companies which supply electricity in different areas e. g KESC, LESCO, MEPCO and NTDC.
Electric crisis in Pakistan started building up in 2000 when the shortfall for electricity started
increasing. The increase in the demand of electrical energy was caused due to growth in
population and industrialization during 1990s-2000.The infrastructures has not been upgraded
since 1990s, which has made the life more difficult due to severe power outages. The economic
growth has shown some positive signs during the last few decades but the rising energy
demand has not been met causing shifting of industries in neighboring countries. The major
causes other than the renewal or up gradation of infrastructure are transmission losses, huge
power theft, poor governance, and incompetence, lack of transparency, reduced hydropower
availability and rapid demand growth hence causing severe load shedding.
During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of 0.64
% and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year. Pakistan need around 22000 MW
electricity per day; however, currently it is able to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence
there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day. This shortage is badly hampering the
economic growth of the country. (Khan n.d.)
Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources with
different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil 29.0
percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent. (Khan n.d.)
 4	
  
Figure 1:Comparison of fuel mix in electricity generation. (IEA 2011) (NEPRA
NATIONAL ELECTRIC POWER REGULATORY AUTHORITY 2011) (NEPRA NATIONAL
ELECRIC POWER REGULATORY AUTHORITY 2011A) (NEPRA NATIONAL ELECTRIC
POWER REGULATORY AUTHORITY 2011B).
The figure represents the comparison of fuels used for generating power across the world in
comparison to as of Pakistan. It is clearly visible that the power generation in Pakistan is highly
dependent on the two sources as discussed earlier. Rest of the world is highly dependent on
the coal whereas being the 5th
largest coalmines Pakistan is dependent on the oil, which is
indeed a highly expensive option for a developing country. Coal is abundantly used for
production of electricity throughout the world while despite being have untouched huge coal
reservoirs still Pakistan is dependent on the oil which is being imported from the middle east.
During the studies of the coal resources in Pakistan experts said that the development of the
new infrastructure for producing electricity from coal is quite expensive and the quality of coal is
not so good The focus is need to be put onto the other renew-able energy sources like solar,
wind and hydro, as Pakistan is full of all these natural resources to produce cheaper and
environmental friendly energy. There has not been much focus on the solar and wind energy
systems but most recently some projects have been initiated which are discussed later in the
report.
This power crisis is not a reason of any sudden growth in demand. There has been increase in
the demand since 1991 and due to not taking this into proper consideration the situation went
worse. No proper planning or risk analysis was done in order to avoid this crisis. Due to
  5	
  
urbanization and growing demand because of technological advancements the electric crisis
caught severity resulting shifting of industries to neighboring countries, declining economy and
social disturbance. Given below is the table for analysis of supply demand since 1972-2008.
Duration
Deman
d
Supply/Installed Capacity Generation
1972-
1980
8.6 8.3 8.9
1981-
1990
10.9 6.8 9.9
1991-
2000
4.2 8.5 5.4
2001-
2008
6.1 1.5 5
Table 1 : Shows the demand and supply of electricity generation over the last 4 decade.
Developed by author by the data from (KESSIDES 2013).
Given below is the electric power usage from different sectors of life in Pakistan. Where the
domestic needs are at the top of the list followed by the industrial needs. This can help
understanding the impact of load shedding on social or domestic life.
Figure 2:Electricity consumption by sector 2010–2011 (HDIP HYDROCARBON
DEVELOPEMENT INSTITUTE OF PAKISTAN 2011)
 6	
  
The purpose of this report is to find the core reasons of this current power crisis in Pakistan and
further recommendations that how to overcome this crisis in a country with all the natural
resources available.
MEANS	
  OF	
  ELECTRICITY	
  GENERATION	
  IN	
  PAKISTAN	
  
As of the world in Pakistan as well there are two types of resources being used for electricity
production.
Ø Non-Renewable Resources.
Ø Renewable Resources.
Figure 3: Production mix of electricity in Pakistan based on sources
The above chart represents the amount of electricity being generated by both renewal and non-
renewable resources. The electric production in Pakistan comprises of 34% from renewal
resources and 66% from non-renewable resources.
Non-renewable resources as depicted by the name are non-renewable which are found in earth
crust in the form of fossil fuels e. g diesel, petrol, charcoal & LPG. All these nonrenewable
resources are considered to be non sustainable as formation of these fossil fuels is a very
lengthy procedure which may take million of years. Pakistan has world's one of the largest coal
34%	
  
66%	
  
Electricity	
  Production	
  in	
  Pakistan	
  
Energy	
  from	
  Renewable	
  
sources	
  
Energy	
  from	
  non-­‐Renewable	
  
sources	
  
  7	
  
deposits of 185 billion tons. These are estimated to be equivalent to 618 billion barrels of crude
oil. (Sodhar 2011)
Pakistan recently discovered one low and four low-to-medium quality coal seams in the Punjab.
Low sulfur coal was recently reported at the Baluchistan and near Islamabad. Bituminous, sub-
bituminous, and lignite coal have been found in Pakistan. Gas fields in Pakistan are expected to
last for another 20 years. The Sui gas field is the largest, accounting for 26% of Pakistan’s gas
production. Daily production is 19 million cubic meters a day. Under the barren mountains of
Baluchistan and the sands of Sindh, there are untouched oil and gas reserves.
Being situated at one of the best geographic and geostrategic locations on the map of world,
Pakistan is affluent in the natural resources. It has enormous energy surplus resource potential
of both renewable and nonrenewable, which is greater than that of oil rich countries of Gulf.
Among the world's 200 plus countries it has the second largest salt mines, second largest coal
reserves, fifth largest copper and gold reserves, seventh largest wheat and rice production
capacity. There are plenty of nonrenewable energy resources like oil, gas and coal in Pakistan.
It has more than 436.2 million barrels of oil, according to CIA World Fact Book, and 31.3 trillion
cubic feet of proven gas reserves. The current oil production is 65,997 barrels per day while gas
production is 4 billion cubic feet per day. Though it is not enough to meet the needs, it can save
considerable outflow of currency. Moreover, there is resource potential of 27 billion Barrels of
Oil and 282 TCF of gas reserves in the country, which has not been explored due to lack of
vision and flawed policies. Pakistan has world's second largest coal deposits of 185 billion tons.
These are estimated to be equivalent to 618 billion barrels of crude oil. This is more than twice if
we compare it with oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. If it is converted into oil by gasification, it will
generate 650 barrels of crude oil, which at an average market rate of eighty dollars per barrel,
would generate 5.2 trillion dollars. But the policy-making elite of the country has not only been
oblivious to the potential but also indifferent to the slow pace of efforts to harness this source for
energy production and exports. The energy deficit is badly affecting the industry in country but
no any serious initiative is taken for electricity production from coal. Besides, the geography of
Pakistan enriches it with the renewable energy resources. (Sodhar 2011)According to studies
approximately 29% of electricity is generated using oil. Pakistan has huge oil reservoirs yet
which have not been explored and utilized properly to manage the electric power deficiency.
 8	
  
Approximately 303.63 Zillions Barrels of oil is present in Pakistan and 24 Zillion/year is being
withdrawn on yearly basis. If some more managed efforts will be introduced into the extraction
of available resources and a proper power generation infrastructure could be developed in line
to the available resources the shortfall can be managed. Renewable Resources/energy that
comes from resources which are naturally replenished on a human timescale, such
as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves, and geothermal heat. (Omar Ellabban 2014). These types
of resources are naturally available and a system is required to utilize them for obtaining the
form of energy, which can be used. So far in Pakistan only hydro energy has been used for the
production of electricity. There is still some studies/working going on how the infrastructure can
be developed using the wind, solar energy for production of electricity however a fewer projects
have been in the run which might bring some additional production to meet energy demands.
On state level there is not subsequent steps being taken in order to get benefits from
abundantly available renewable energy resources. Hydro energy is used to produce almost
34% of current produced energy. Given below is the table, which represents the electricity,
being produced from hydro projects in Pakistan.
Current Hydel Production units
Capacity of Electricity
Generated(MW)
Tarbella Dam 3,478.00
Ghazi Brotha Dam 1,450.00
Mangla Dam 1,000.00
Warsak Dam 240
Chashma Dam 184
Dargai 20
Rasul 22
Shadiwal 13.5
Nandi Pur 14
Kurram Garhi 4
Renala 1
Chitral 1
Jagran AK 30
Khankhwar 72
Allaikhwar 121
Gomal Zam Dam 17
Jabban 22
Duber Khwar Dam 130
Total 6,819.50
Table 2: Total available hydropower production units of Pakistan
  9	
  
Wind and Solar energy are other unused lifelines of Pakistan. 1046 km long coastal line gives
potential of 40000 MW of electricity. The vast lands of Baluchistan can be utilized for solar
electricity generation. But unfortunately these resources have barely been used due to
technological backwardness and lack of innovative policies. (Sodhar 2011)
As per the study conducted by NREL (USA) the potential for renewable energy for wind is
approximately 340,000MW,and solar 2900000MW .The annual direct normal solar radiation
(CSP) is in the range of 5-7.5 kWh/m2/day in most parts of the country and annual flat plate
tilted at latitude solar radiation (PV) is in the range of 6-7.5 kWh/m2/day. There is huge barren
land available through out the country, which can be used for the initiation of large scaled solar
energy projects.
REVIEW	
  OF	
  RENEWABLE	
  ENERGY	
  PROJECTS	
  
Being a developing country with a lot of other challenges in line going for renewable energy
options is very much needs to cope up with the energy requirements. The major benefits of
adopting renewable energy sources is lower gestation period, security of energy, less need for
infrastructural development as compared to the other options and environmentally friendly.
Shifting to solar wind or other renewable power production options will also help improving the
employment opportunities and poverty alleviation causing the improvement in terrorist attacks.
The wasted land would also be utilized considering this option to build the new setups. In urban
areas of Pakistan there has not been much focus on the emerging environmental issues,
pollution is drastically increasing day by day and no remedial measures have been taken into
account. Adoption of renewable energy sources will eventually contribute towards carbon
credits. Currently the energy production in Pakistan is based on the oil, gas and hydro projects.
Considering huge opportunity to utilize the natural resources available there is a need to shift
the energy means to the sustainable and long termed solutions. Oil is being imported from
outside of country to meet the demands, which imposes excessive costs and environmental
damage. For a developing country with availability of such types of resources it is not feasible to
proceed with expensive options to meet the energy requirements.
 10	
  
OVERVIEW OF RECENT WIND ENERGY PROJECTS IN PAKISTAN
According to AEDB (Alternative energy development board) recently there have been 30 intent
letters for 1760 MW electric power production have been issued. Different IPPs have made
agreements for production of 706 MW through wind energy. Approximately 5 projects are now
operation, which will contribute 255MW. 500MW will be generated from 9 another projects and
their financial closure has been completed with construction works in progress. Additional
900MW will be obtained from 11 numbers of new projects, which are currently been proposed,
to NEPRA (National Power Regulatory Authority) for tariff allowance.
Completed/Commissioned Projects of Wind energy
Sr
No
Project Name
Capacity Current
status(MW)
1 M/s FFC Energy Limited 49.5 Commissioned
2 M/s Zorlu Enerji Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd 56.4 Commissioned
3 M/s 3 Gorges Pakistan Wind Farm (Pvt.) Ltd 49.5 Commissioned
4 M/s Foundation Wind Energy II (Pvt.) Ltd 50 Commissioned
5 M/s Foundation Wind Energy –I Ltd 50 Commissioned
Total Capacity 255.4
Table 3: Recently completed wind energy projects in Pakistan
So far the current available power from wind energy is approx. 255.4 MW. Projects in
construction phase with an expected date of completion by July/August 2016 will be able to
contribute 479MW.So the total available production by the end of the year 2016 will be
expectedly 734.4MW.
  11	
  
Projects in Construction Phase
Sr
No
Project Name
Capacity(M
W)
Current status
1 M/s Sapphire Wind Power Company Limited 50
Under
Construction
2 M/s Metro Power Company Limited 50
Under
Construction
3 M/s Yunus Energy Limited 50
Under
Construction
4 M/s Master Wind Energy Pvt. Limited 50
Under
Construction
5 Tapal Wind Energy Pvt. Limited 30
Under
Construction
6 M/s United Energy Pakistan Pvt. Limited 99
Under
Construction
7 M/s Hydro China Dawood Power Pvt. Limited 50
Under
Construction
8 M/s Tenega Generasi Limited 50
Under
Construction
9 M/S Gul Ahmed Wind power
50 Under
Construction
Total Under Construction Projects Capacity 479
Table 4:Wind energy projects under construction.
This is a short overview of coming projects in wind energy sector but considering the ability of
production they are quite not enough. Looking at the potential to produce 340000MW the
production in pipeline is not enough by any means to meet the country’s electric requirements.
Given below are the photos of some of the most recent projects completed and in progress.
 12	
  
  13	
  
Figure 4: Photos of recent wind energy projects in Pakistan
OVERVIEW	
  OF	
  RECENT	
  SOLAR	
  POWER	
  PROJECTS	
  
Unlike wind energy Pakistan delayed its concept of using solar energy as a resource. There
was a very little focus in the previous years and no such projects have been initiated to utilize
solar energy to meet daily demand. NREL with cooperation of USAID, PMD, and AEBD has
carried out detailed analysis of available solar energy resources. The solar map of Pakistan
depicts the following information.
Pakistan lies in most of the sunniest belts around the world. (Alternative Energy Development
Board 2015)The mean global irradiation falling on horizontal surface is about 200-250 watt per
m2
per day. (Alternative Energy Development Board 2015)About 1500-3000 sun shine hours
and 1.9 - 2.3 MWh per m2
per year. (Alternative Energy Development Board 2015). Baluchistan
province is particularly rich in solar energy. It has an average daily global insulation of 19 to 20
MJ/m2
per day with annual mean sunshine duration of 8 to 8.5 hours a day and these values
 14	
  
are among the highest in the world. For daily global radiation up to 23MJ/m2, 24 consecutive
days are available in this area. (Alternative Energy Development Board 2015). Keeping in view
the fact that the benefits of solar energy for power generation can be attained in areas where
abundant barren land is available and no other development activities like agriculture, livestock,
industry etc. is possible. (Alternative Energy Development Board 2015)
Such areas include the following:
o Most parts of Baluchistan Province
o Thal Desert in Punjab
o Thar Desert in Sindh
o Cholistan Area
Figure 5: Pakistan annual global & flat plate tilted horizontal solar radiation (Source:
NREL)
According to AEDB (Alternative energy development board) recently there have been 31 intent
letters for 31 Solar PV against 709.6MW.Upfront Tariff has been awarded to 06 IPPs by
NEPRA; these projects are required to achieve financial close by December 31, 2015. (Awan
2015).
According to another statement by Pakistan will be able to produce almost 2000MW electricity
from different solar projects throughout the country by the end of 2018.They have proposed that
all the previous conventional power plants should be replaced with the new solar power plants
by partially utilizing the available infrastructure.
  15	
  
There are no considerable projects for solar energy but Government of Pakistan have a target
of generating 5 % power equals to 9700MW from solar energy by year 2030.According to the
current revised project frameworks developed in line with the ambition of the government
approximately 709.6MW will be produced from solar by year 2018 with the help of 31 different
projects. By the end of year 2016 we will be able to generate 46MW from 6 different projects
and 150MW by the end of year 2017 followed by additional 513.6MW through 22 projects in
2018.Considering the huge capacity of utilizing the solar energy in the deserteous areas of
Pakistan and availability of barrel lands further projects can be added but due to the current
financial constraints this frame work has been developed by GOP and AEDB.
Figure 6: Cloud cover trend over Pakistan (Source: NREL)
 16	
  
Figure 7: Sunny days per year in Pakistan (Source: NREL)
The above figures represent the cloud cover and sunny days per year trend in different cities of
Pakistan as per the study conducted by NREL USA.
OVERVIEW	
  OF	
  HYDROPOWER	
  STATIONS	
  
Hydropower is an important source in producing electricity in Pakistan. Different
hydropower stations throughout the country produces 6000mw approximately, against
total installed capacity as 6720mw.pakistan is blessed with huge hydropower
resources. there is huge potential of producing around roughly 60,000mw of electricity
with the available resources. a chart below represents the provisional wise hydropower
potential.
  17	
  
Figure 8:Hydropower resources available in Pakistan (PPIB 2011)
Breakdown of current installed hydropower capacity in Pakistan province wise is given below.
1. Khyber Pakhtunkhawa 3849 MW
2. Punjab 1699 MW
3. AJ&K 1039 MW
4. Gilgit-Baltistan 133 MW
Further details of the upcoming hydro projects have been given on the table 5. The duration for
the completion of all hydro projects vary and only an addition of 1200-3000 MW can be
expected in next two years, which is still far away than the required demand of 20,000MW/day.
In hydropower sector works on detailed engineering and feasibility reports are still in process,
which might take another decade to produce something physically. A few projects have had
been started but due to political instability and improper planning of completing the projects on
time we are still in the early phases of construction.
 18	
  
Project Description Location Capacity(MW)
Tarbela DamExtension-IV and
V (KPK), Indus River 2730
Golen Gol Hydropower Project KPK,Mastuj River 106
Patrind Hydropower Plant
Azad Kashmir, Kunhar
River
147
Diamer-Bhasha Dam
Indus River, Gilgit-
Baltistan
4,500
Keyal Khwar Hydropower
Project
KPK, Indus River 128
Nai Gaj Dam Gaj River, Sindh 4.2
Chashma Hydel Power Project Indus River,Punjab 5
Naltar-V HPP Gilgit, Naltar River 14.4
Naltar-III HPP Gilgit, Naltar River 16
Dasu Dam KPK,Indus River 4,320
Shagarthang Hydropower
Project
Baltistan,Indus River 26
Taunsa Barrage Hydropower
Plant
Punjab,Indus River 120
Naulong Dam Mula River,Balochistan 4.4
Gulpur Hydropower Project
Azad Kashmir, Poonch
River
102
Karot Hydropower Project Jehlum River, Punjab 720
Total 12,943
Table 5: Upcoming hydropower projects in Pakistan
Through literature review and analysis of upcoming projects in all renewable and non renewable
power sources it was clear that no such measures have been taken to resolve this crisis on
immediate basis. The major hurdles are financial constraints, corruption, political instability, and
inexperienced individuals, which will be discussed, in the further report.
BRIEF	
  IMPACT	
  REVIEW	
  OF	
  2-­‐DAMS	
  CONSTRUCTION	
  CASES	
  
Two major dams were expected to provide approximately 4500MW(Diamer Bhasha) & 2400-
3600MW Kala Bagh to help rescuing through the current worse power outages. Bhasha dam
  19	
  
was inaugurated in 2008 but after formal approval from the authorities it was further delayed
due to financial constraints. In 2012 all the sponsors including ADB (Asian Development Bank)
& World Bank decided not to fund the project considering the disputed territory and asked for
NOC to be obtained from India. Further after presenting convincing evidences in 2013 to World
Bank and other project sponsors the work was resumed. The expected time for the project
completion is 10 years.
The construction of the kalabagh dam is another disputed crisis among different stakeholders.
The expected electric output from this project was another 3600MW.The government failed to
muster the political support needed to build the kalabagh dam on the Indus River, which was
the critical part of the plan. The provinces of the Khyber Pakhtunkhawa and Sindh opposed the
dam; the former feared the ecological damage and displacement of people that would be
caused by the large lake that would result following the construction of the dam, while the latter
was afraid that its share of the Indus River water would be reduced. The dam’s construction
was supported by Punjab, but it was no sufficient to overcome the opposition of the other
provinces. The plan was mothballed. Instead, the government began to develop other plans to
construct two dams on the Indus upstream of kalabagh. (Burki n.d.)
The timely completion of these above-mentioned two projected would have contributed
8100MW towards energy needs of Pakistan, but due to non-serious attitude from the
stakeholders and negligence of risk assessment prior to investing caused a huge delay. Where
one project has been agreed to defer and other is still facing financial challenges.
Apart from the contribution towards the energy needs these two projects were supposed to
bring up huge employment opportunities as well as arrangement to avoid the floods. Every year
floods are being observed due to the improper irrigation system.
NUCLEAR	
  POWER	
  STATIONS	
  STATUS	
  IN	
  PAKISTAN	
  
Nuclear power can be another source of power generation. According to the studies and figure
above the whole world is producing 13.50 % of its electricity using nuclear energy whereas
Pakistan generated 3.20% of its total production using the nuclear energy. There are several
 20	
  
reasons involved for example improper arrangement for dumping the nuclear waste, which is
one of the very important issue, the second major issue is Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of
uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW
capacities, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially. Since Pakistan is outside
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials,
which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining issues in development of
nuclear energy are enrichment of uranium from U235 to U238, controlling chain reaction and
dumping of solid waste. (Khan n.d.)
PAKISTAN	
  NUCLEAR	
  POWER	
  REACTORS	
  
Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operation
Karachi PHWR* 125 1966 1972
Chashma 1 PWR** 300 1993 2000
Chashma 2 PWR** 300 2005 expected 2011
Total 425 MW
Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) - Canadian based reactors
** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors (Khan n.d.)
USE	
  OF	
  BIO	
  MASS	
  FOR	
  ELECTRICITY	
  PRODUCTION	
  IN	
  PAKISTAN	
  
Biomass is also a source of producing energy and being used efficiently across the world but
unfortunately Pakistan has never utilized this source for producing energy on a proper state
level. Production of energy from biomass includes using waste (Garbage) or some vegetables
e.g. sugarcane, corn to generate electricity. The process involves burning of the garbage and
retaining the produced methane gas into the pipes and then using the methane gas for
  21	
  
producing. Worlds largest biomass energy programs are being done by Brazil and America. I
believe that this has not been possible because of the improper system of waste disposal and
awareness. People are not aware of the fact that the proper separation and dumping system of
the waste (Garbage) can help us utilizing this for producing energy.
Government of Pakistan is now keen to look into this subject more efficiently. A recent
statement from AEDB (Alternative Energy Development Board) is that we are starting to work
on producing energy using biomass of municipal level initially in the twenty major cities across
the country. First of all the project will be started in the city of Karachi to produce 10MW using
biomass for electricity production followed by the rest the cities.
IMPACTS	
  OF	
  ELECTRICITY	
  OUTAGES	
  
The electricity crisis in Pakistan has badly affected all the functions of life, which could have
been. The industries lost their way to continue working in such situation and shifted to
neighboring countries. For example Faisalabad (City) was once known for its one of the biggest
textiles industries in the Asia is now left with nothing. Energy in this era is lifeline for all the
activities and economy of a state. The economic progress of Pakistan has been severely
damaged by effecting the agricultural productivity and industrial operations.
Pakistan is an agricultural country with a lot of people using this as a source of living, the
shortages have caused the unavailability of water because of electric pumps and tube wells as
well as production of pesticides and fertilizers for farming activities. Production can definitely be
improved with the increase in continuous power availability. Most of the farms and agricultural
lands are in rural areas where the power outages are even worse than the big cities, in recent
years the power outages have been noted as approximately 12hrs(minimum) and 20hrs
(maximum) in summers.
The industrialists faced huge loss due to unavailability of the electricity for more than 12 hours.
Textile industry hence had to shift to Bangladesh causing huge unemployment and there are a
 22	
  
lot of such examples in all the sectors of life. Since this crisis started the unemployment has
been considerably increased. Seeing the current power crisis the investors were hesitant to
start any new business in the state. No considerable businesses have been developed in recent
times. Crime rate and terrorism would obviously be triggered when people would not have
enough resources to live.
This as well have severe adverse effects on the social life as well people suffer to perform daily
life activities like cooking, cleaning, sleeping, water and heating. Apart from this load shedding
has caused many severe damages on the psychology and social life. People tend to be more
aggressive and frustrated due to not having proper sleep in summers when the weather is
extremely hot and electricity is not available. Students tend to suffer in their academics and
cannot focus on studies well. Electricity is deeply involved in medical center. One can imagine
the intensity of huge power cuts in hospitals and their perspective damage. There were several
incidents reported where people lost their lives due to electricity unavailability hospitals.
Institutions now have somehow developed some alternative personally owned temporary power
systems but they are not effective and economical. The availability of individual generators and
UPS is now a symbol of financial strength in Pakistan. They are expensive means of managing
the basic daily needs for domestic use but still not in the affordability bracket of poor or low-
income personnel’s. Life is quite difficult to live without electric power in this era of technology
where life is dependent on all the technological instruments. Poverty is increasing day by day
due to all of the above factors, which cause unrest. Economy is declining and an approximate
figure of people living below poverty line is 40% of total population, which seems to be
increasing in coming years if the situation is not improved. Due to the power outages people
would protest against the government which causing sometimes fatal damages to the existing
infrastructure of human lives as well. There is no area of life which has been damaged by this
crisis which needs to be resolved at earliest to turn into a stable country for its residents.
	
  
	
   	
  
  23	
  
CAUSES	
  OF	
  ELECTRICITY	
  SHORTAGES	
  IN	
  PAKISTAN	
  
It is indeed a very indigestible fact that a country rich with all the natural resources is suffering
with huge energy shortage. The problem is not the availability of the resources but the
management or planning of resources to help overcoming this crisis with dedicative approach
by every stakeholder. During the literature review on the subject topic and discussion with
experts on energy crisis in Pakistan, following reasons were found to be the major cause of this
shortage throughout the country.
• Old infrastructure and reliability on oil and gas for generating electricity, which are
expensive means for generating electricity considering the financial situation of the
country.
• Mismanagement of the energy resources.
• Aging of equipment.
• Silting process.
• Illiteracy and poverty
• Political instability and negligence of public’s interest.
• Poor governance and incompetent professionals running the power sector.
• Distribution and transmission losses due to old and poor infrastructure.
• Improper bills recovery or electrical theft (Circular Debt).
• Prices of electricity for domestic use.
• Communication gap between the different organizations involved in generation
distribution and recovery of power related matters.
• Lack of awareness among the public on electricity saving.
• Financial constraints and dependency on different sponsors for initiation of new projects.
• Increased population and urbanization.
• Use of technology and power based equipment’s in daily life.
• Lack of periodical maintenance.
 24	
  
CONCLUSION	
  
It is clear from the above discussion that there is huge electric power crisis during the last
decade in Pakistan. Despite being having all the resources the nation and residents are
suffering, Need of the day is to re-plan the opted development plans after making proper risk
analysis along with contingency plans. Government needs to integrate different organizations
involved in the energy supply and production, due to communication issues between the
different public organizations involved in resolving this crisis the problem is still unsolved.
Considering this as one of the major cause for depreciating economy.
Pakistan should also make improvements on the energy-demand side—such as by aiming to
reduce by half the 30% in losses arising from distribution and transmission (a goal that will
entail crackdowns on energy theft). The federal and provincial authorities should be more
vigilant about considering necessary maintenance and repairs at the facilities such as
generation, distribution, and transmission to reduce leakages and losses. Any efforts to improve
energy governance will need to occur in tandem with measures to curb wasteful water
consumption. The wrong agricultural practice where the excessive water is used causes more
electricity requirement for running the tube wells. In the end Pakistan should better diversify its
energy mix. This can be done initially by importing clean coal, which is often cheaper than
imported oil and gas. With time, if the political spats over local reserves can be worked out, then
the nation would ideally begin to focus on developing indigenous supplies—though a variety of
challenges, such as transporting the coal across the nation and overcoming possible resistance
to environmental costs, would remain. Pakistan is already making an effort to diversify by
pursuing separate pipeline projects with Iran and with Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and India. In
the meantime, Pakistan should take advantage of its enhanced commercial relationship with
India to import energy from that country. Already, the two nations have concluded a deal to
export electricity to Pakistan, and they have created a joint working group on petroleum to
explore further possibilities for energy trade. Ultimately, there is just one obstacle to the
implementation of these measures, and that is leadership. For years, Pakistani officials have
had promising policies at their disposal; yet they have been unwilling or unable to move
forward. This spring, if Pakistanis elect leaders with a genuine desire to serve the interests of
country, then the end of its long energy struggles could conceivably be in sight.
  25	
  
There is a huge capacity available for production of electricity using renewable sources such as
hydel , solar, wind. So far the projects initiated and expected to be complete in next 3-4 years
are not enough to meet the increasing demand. Government needs to highlight the importance
of energy saving to individuals till grass root level by educating them. The PV cells for electricity
generation as quite an expensive option considering that the 40% of population lives below
poverty line but use of solar heater, water coolers, solar cookers can help saving the
nonrenewable energy sources. The domestic use of power is where most of the energy is used
so educating people by providing and commercializing solar equipment can help contributing
somehow towards the crisis. Government of Pakistan needs to appoint some competent
professionals to analyze this and prepare a plan for upcoming years to overcome this crisis.
This crisis holds several contributors and considering any single factor being responsible would
not be right. Government is unable to resolve this crisis due to lack of interest and incompetent
people leading the energy departments. Whereas public is not well aware of the energy saving
techniques and its importance to overcome the current situation. Electricity theft is another
problem which is not something impossible to manage, until unless the authorities really wants
to manage it. The infrastructure is quite older and equipment are quite aged, which reduces the
production. Proper periodical maintenance is never been taken into account; maintenance is
being done once the problem turns into crisis, which thus causes more trouble and cost.
Development & implementation of maintenance strategies’ can help improving the lives of the
facilities. The energy crisis produces chaos in society, which causes lack of patience.
Improvement is required in all the sectors to improve the situation and overcome this crisis by
SUGGESTIONS	
  &	
  RECOMMENDATIONS	
  
Through the literature review there are some of the suggestions or recommendations, which
can help in a way to manage worse electric power crisis in Pakistan. There are different
possible solutions, which can be opted to fix this. The short-term strategy could be to increase
the independent power producers by empowering them and supporting them. Reactivation of
the closed power stations will definitely contribute something as well. Another short-term
solution is to import the electricity from the neighboring countries to somehow manage the daily
 26	
  
life needs. In parallel to the earlier given suggestions government should focus more on
developing new renewable energy resources to cope up with the coming needs. Apart from the
temporary solutions the wrong term solutions need proper planning and efforts. Pakistan is
having world’s largest coal reserves, which have not been explored; exploration and
management of available resources can help as well. Producing the locally available coal will
help producing the cheaper energy rather than producing it from imported oil. Construction of
the new proposed dams is the only hope to fulfill the energy needs for coming years.
Renewable sources can be the only solution for future, or other economical option could be the
production using coal. Educating the public and floating awareness about the energy saving
and its importance can be helpful. All the stakeholders need to exhaust some efforts with a
approach to resolve this crisis considering their responsibilities.
REFERENCES
Alternative Energy Development Board. AEDB. 2015. http://aedb.org/index.php/ae-
technologies/solar-power/solar-resources (accessed 11 20, 2015).
Awan, Amjad Ali. Alternate Energy Development Board. Amjad Ali Awan. 06 10, 2015.
http://aedb.org/ (accessed 11 20, 2015).
Burki, Shahid Javed. Historical dictionary of Pakistan. 4. Vol. 1. 1 vols. London, England:
ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD.
HDIP Hydrocarbon Developement Institute of Pakistan. "Pakistan Energy Book." Analysis,
Hydrocarbon Developement Institute, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources , 2011.
IEA. World Energy Outlook 2011. International Energy Agency, PAris: OECD Publication, 2011.
Kessides, Ioannis N. "Chaos in power : Pakistan's electricity crisis." Science direct, January
2013: 273.
Khan, Wajahat. Wajahateducation. http://wajahateducation.blogspot.fi/p/essay-energy-crisis-
inpakistan-outline-1.html (accessed 11 15, 2015).
NEPRA National Elecric Power Regulatory Authority. Annual Report. Annual, NEPRA, NEPRA,
2011a.
NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority. "State of Industry." National Electric
Power Regulatory, 2011.
  27	
  
NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority. "State of Industry Report." NEPRA,
2011b.
Omar Ellabban, haitham Abu-Rub , frede Blaabjerg. "Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews." Science Direct, November 2014: 748-764.
PPIB. Hydropower resources of Pakistan. Government analysis report, Private power and
infrastructure board Pakistan, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad: PPIB, 2011, 12.
Sodhar, Irshad Ali. Jworldtimes. 12 1, 2011.
http://jworldtimes.com/Article/92011_Pakistan_Rich_in_Natural_Resources_But_Poor_in_their_
Management (accessed 11 19, 2015).

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Case study on energy crisis in Pakistan

  • 1.   1   CASE STUDY 2 H e l si n k i  Me tr o p o l ia  &   H T W   Be r l i n         Masters  of  Construction  &  Real  Estate  Management                       Electrical  Energy  Crisis  in   Pakistan   1 By: Musa Raza Professor: Eric Pollock
  • 2.  2   TABLE  OF  CONTENTS   INTRODUCTION   3   MEANS  OF  ELECTRICITY  GENERATION  IN  PAKISTAN   6   REVIEW  OF  RENEWABLE  ENERGY  PROJECTS   9   OVERVIEW OF RECENT WIND ENERGY PROJECTS IN PAKISTAN   10   OVERVIEW  OF  RECENT  SOLAR  POWER  PROJECTS   13   OVERVIEW  OF  HYDROPOWER  STATIONS   16   BRIEF  IMPACT  REVIEW  OF  2-­‐DAMS  CONSTRUCTION  CASES   18   NUCLEAR  POWER  STATIONS  STATUS  IN  PAKISTAN   19   PAKISTAN  NUCLEAR  POWER  REACTORS   20   USE  OF  BIO  MASS  FOR  ELECTRICITY  PRODUCTION  IN  PAKISTAN   20   IMPACTS  OF  ELECTRICITY  OUTAGES   21   CAUSES  OF  ELECTRICITY  SHORTAGES  IN  PAKISTAN   22   CONCLUSION   24   SUGGESTIONS  &  RECOMMENDATIONS   25   REFERENCES   26                    
  • 3.   3   INTRODUCTION   The electric power outages is the current major crisis in Pakistan which does not seems to land somewhere and the major causes are use of expensive ways of production, political influence, lack of education and poverty. Despite availability of several natural resources the energy crisis are getting worse, this is because of poor planning for exploration of available resources and their usage for electricity generation. Pakistan is blessed with a lot of natural resources and the proper utilization; exploration and management can help improving the economic situation of the state. Government and a few private organizations control major part of power sectors in Pakistan. Major means of electric power production are oil & gas, LPG and hydroelectricity. WAPDA is the governing body for electric production and supply. There are different sub companies which supply electricity in different areas e. g KESC, LESCO, MEPCO and NTDC. Electric crisis in Pakistan started building up in 2000 when the shortfall for electricity started increasing. The increase in the demand of electrical energy was caused due to growth in population and industrialization during 1990s-2000.The infrastructures has not been upgraded since 1990s, which has made the life more difficult due to severe power outages. The economic growth has shown some positive signs during the last few decades but the rising energy demand has not been met causing shifting of industries in neighboring countries. The major causes other than the renewal or up gradation of infrastructure are transmission losses, huge power theft, poor governance, and incompetence, lack of transparency, reduced hydropower availability and rapid demand growth hence causing severe load shedding. During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of 0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year. Pakistan need around 22000 MW electricity per day; however, currently it is able to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country. (Khan n.d.) Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil 29.0 percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent. (Khan n.d.)
  • 4.  4   Figure 1:Comparison of fuel mix in electricity generation. (IEA 2011) (NEPRA NATIONAL ELECTRIC POWER REGULATORY AUTHORITY 2011) (NEPRA NATIONAL ELECRIC POWER REGULATORY AUTHORITY 2011A) (NEPRA NATIONAL ELECTRIC POWER REGULATORY AUTHORITY 2011B). The figure represents the comparison of fuels used for generating power across the world in comparison to as of Pakistan. It is clearly visible that the power generation in Pakistan is highly dependent on the two sources as discussed earlier. Rest of the world is highly dependent on the coal whereas being the 5th largest coalmines Pakistan is dependent on the oil, which is indeed a highly expensive option for a developing country. Coal is abundantly used for production of electricity throughout the world while despite being have untouched huge coal reservoirs still Pakistan is dependent on the oil which is being imported from the middle east. During the studies of the coal resources in Pakistan experts said that the development of the new infrastructure for producing electricity from coal is quite expensive and the quality of coal is not so good The focus is need to be put onto the other renew-able energy sources like solar, wind and hydro, as Pakistan is full of all these natural resources to produce cheaper and environmental friendly energy. There has not been much focus on the solar and wind energy systems but most recently some projects have been initiated which are discussed later in the report. This power crisis is not a reason of any sudden growth in demand. There has been increase in the demand since 1991 and due to not taking this into proper consideration the situation went worse. No proper planning or risk analysis was done in order to avoid this crisis. Due to
  • 5.   5   urbanization and growing demand because of technological advancements the electric crisis caught severity resulting shifting of industries to neighboring countries, declining economy and social disturbance. Given below is the table for analysis of supply demand since 1972-2008. Duration Deman d Supply/Installed Capacity Generation 1972- 1980 8.6 8.3 8.9 1981- 1990 10.9 6.8 9.9 1991- 2000 4.2 8.5 5.4 2001- 2008 6.1 1.5 5 Table 1 : Shows the demand and supply of electricity generation over the last 4 decade. Developed by author by the data from (KESSIDES 2013). Given below is the electric power usage from different sectors of life in Pakistan. Where the domestic needs are at the top of the list followed by the industrial needs. This can help understanding the impact of load shedding on social or domestic life. Figure 2:Electricity consumption by sector 2010–2011 (HDIP HYDROCARBON DEVELOPEMENT INSTITUTE OF PAKISTAN 2011)
  • 6.  6   The purpose of this report is to find the core reasons of this current power crisis in Pakistan and further recommendations that how to overcome this crisis in a country with all the natural resources available. MEANS  OF  ELECTRICITY  GENERATION  IN  PAKISTAN   As of the world in Pakistan as well there are two types of resources being used for electricity production. Ø Non-Renewable Resources. Ø Renewable Resources. Figure 3: Production mix of electricity in Pakistan based on sources The above chart represents the amount of electricity being generated by both renewal and non- renewable resources. The electric production in Pakistan comprises of 34% from renewal resources and 66% from non-renewable resources. Non-renewable resources as depicted by the name are non-renewable which are found in earth crust in the form of fossil fuels e. g diesel, petrol, charcoal & LPG. All these nonrenewable resources are considered to be non sustainable as formation of these fossil fuels is a very lengthy procedure which may take million of years. Pakistan has world's one of the largest coal 34%   66%   Electricity  Production  in  Pakistan   Energy  from  Renewable   sources   Energy  from  non-­‐Renewable   sources  
  • 7.   7   deposits of 185 billion tons. These are estimated to be equivalent to 618 billion barrels of crude oil. (Sodhar 2011) Pakistan recently discovered one low and four low-to-medium quality coal seams in the Punjab. Low sulfur coal was recently reported at the Baluchistan and near Islamabad. Bituminous, sub- bituminous, and lignite coal have been found in Pakistan. Gas fields in Pakistan are expected to last for another 20 years. The Sui gas field is the largest, accounting for 26% of Pakistan’s gas production. Daily production is 19 million cubic meters a day. Under the barren mountains of Baluchistan and the sands of Sindh, there are untouched oil and gas reserves. Being situated at one of the best geographic and geostrategic locations on the map of world, Pakistan is affluent in the natural resources. It has enormous energy surplus resource potential of both renewable and nonrenewable, which is greater than that of oil rich countries of Gulf. Among the world's 200 plus countries it has the second largest salt mines, second largest coal reserves, fifth largest copper and gold reserves, seventh largest wheat and rice production capacity. There are plenty of nonrenewable energy resources like oil, gas and coal in Pakistan. It has more than 436.2 million barrels of oil, according to CIA World Fact Book, and 31.3 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves. The current oil production is 65,997 barrels per day while gas production is 4 billion cubic feet per day. Though it is not enough to meet the needs, it can save considerable outflow of currency. Moreover, there is resource potential of 27 billion Barrels of Oil and 282 TCF of gas reserves in the country, which has not been explored due to lack of vision and flawed policies. Pakistan has world's second largest coal deposits of 185 billion tons. These are estimated to be equivalent to 618 billion barrels of crude oil. This is more than twice if we compare it with oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. If it is converted into oil by gasification, it will generate 650 barrels of crude oil, which at an average market rate of eighty dollars per barrel, would generate 5.2 trillion dollars. But the policy-making elite of the country has not only been oblivious to the potential but also indifferent to the slow pace of efforts to harness this source for energy production and exports. The energy deficit is badly affecting the industry in country but no any serious initiative is taken for electricity production from coal. Besides, the geography of Pakistan enriches it with the renewable energy resources. (Sodhar 2011)According to studies approximately 29% of electricity is generated using oil. Pakistan has huge oil reservoirs yet which have not been explored and utilized properly to manage the electric power deficiency.
  • 8.  8   Approximately 303.63 Zillions Barrels of oil is present in Pakistan and 24 Zillion/year is being withdrawn on yearly basis. If some more managed efforts will be introduced into the extraction of available resources and a proper power generation infrastructure could be developed in line to the available resources the shortfall can be managed. Renewable Resources/energy that comes from resources which are naturally replenished on a human timescale, such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves, and geothermal heat. (Omar Ellabban 2014). These types of resources are naturally available and a system is required to utilize them for obtaining the form of energy, which can be used. So far in Pakistan only hydro energy has been used for the production of electricity. There is still some studies/working going on how the infrastructure can be developed using the wind, solar energy for production of electricity however a fewer projects have been in the run which might bring some additional production to meet energy demands. On state level there is not subsequent steps being taken in order to get benefits from abundantly available renewable energy resources. Hydro energy is used to produce almost 34% of current produced energy. Given below is the table, which represents the electricity, being produced from hydro projects in Pakistan. Current Hydel Production units Capacity of Electricity Generated(MW) Tarbella Dam 3,478.00 Ghazi Brotha Dam 1,450.00 Mangla Dam 1,000.00 Warsak Dam 240 Chashma Dam 184 Dargai 20 Rasul 22 Shadiwal 13.5 Nandi Pur 14 Kurram Garhi 4 Renala 1 Chitral 1 Jagran AK 30 Khankhwar 72 Allaikhwar 121 Gomal Zam Dam 17 Jabban 22 Duber Khwar Dam 130 Total 6,819.50 Table 2: Total available hydropower production units of Pakistan
  • 9.   9   Wind and Solar energy are other unused lifelines of Pakistan. 1046 km long coastal line gives potential of 40000 MW of electricity. The vast lands of Baluchistan can be utilized for solar electricity generation. But unfortunately these resources have barely been used due to technological backwardness and lack of innovative policies. (Sodhar 2011) As per the study conducted by NREL (USA) the potential for renewable energy for wind is approximately 340,000MW,and solar 2900000MW .The annual direct normal solar radiation (CSP) is in the range of 5-7.5 kWh/m2/day in most parts of the country and annual flat plate tilted at latitude solar radiation (PV) is in the range of 6-7.5 kWh/m2/day. There is huge barren land available through out the country, which can be used for the initiation of large scaled solar energy projects. REVIEW  OF  RENEWABLE  ENERGY  PROJECTS   Being a developing country with a lot of other challenges in line going for renewable energy options is very much needs to cope up with the energy requirements. The major benefits of adopting renewable energy sources is lower gestation period, security of energy, less need for infrastructural development as compared to the other options and environmentally friendly. Shifting to solar wind or other renewable power production options will also help improving the employment opportunities and poverty alleviation causing the improvement in terrorist attacks. The wasted land would also be utilized considering this option to build the new setups. In urban areas of Pakistan there has not been much focus on the emerging environmental issues, pollution is drastically increasing day by day and no remedial measures have been taken into account. Adoption of renewable energy sources will eventually contribute towards carbon credits. Currently the energy production in Pakistan is based on the oil, gas and hydro projects. Considering huge opportunity to utilize the natural resources available there is a need to shift the energy means to the sustainable and long termed solutions. Oil is being imported from outside of country to meet the demands, which imposes excessive costs and environmental damage. For a developing country with availability of such types of resources it is not feasible to proceed with expensive options to meet the energy requirements.
  • 10.  10   OVERVIEW OF RECENT WIND ENERGY PROJECTS IN PAKISTAN According to AEDB (Alternative energy development board) recently there have been 30 intent letters for 1760 MW electric power production have been issued. Different IPPs have made agreements for production of 706 MW through wind energy. Approximately 5 projects are now operation, which will contribute 255MW. 500MW will be generated from 9 another projects and their financial closure has been completed with construction works in progress. Additional 900MW will be obtained from 11 numbers of new projects, which are currently been proposed, to NEPRA (National Power Regulatory Authority) for tariff allowance. Completed/Commissioned Projects of Wind energy Sr No Project Name Capacity Current status(MW) 1 M/s FFC Energy Limited 49.5 Commissioned 2 M/s Zorlu Enerji Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd 56.4 Commissioned 3 M/s 3 Gorges Pakistan Wind Farm (Pvt.) Ltd 49.5 Commissioned 4 M/s Foundation Wind Energy II (Pvt.) Ltd 50 Commissioned 5 M/s Foundation Wind Energy –I Ltd 50 Commissioned Total Capacity 255.4 Table 3: Recently completed wind energy projects in Pakistan So far the current available power from wind energy is approx. 255.4 MW. Projects in construction phase with an expected date of completion by July/August 2016 will be able to contribute 479MW.So the total available production by the end of the year 2016 will be expectedly 734.4MW.
  • 11.   11   Projects in Construction Phase Sr No Project Name Capacity(M W) Current status 1 M/s Sapphire Wind Power Company Limited 50 Under Construction 2 M/s Metro Power Company Limited 50 Under Construction 3 M/s Yunus Energy Limited 50 Under Construction 4 M/s Master Wind Energy Pvt. Limited 50 Under Construction 5 Tapal Wind Energy Pvt. Limited 30 Under Construction 6 M/s United Energy Pakistan Pvt. Limited 99 Under Construction 7 M/s Hydro China Dawood Power Pvt. Limited 50 Under Construction 8 M/s Tenega Generasi Limited 50 Under Construction 9 M/S Gul Ahmed Wind power 50 Under Construction Total Under Construction Projects Capacity 479 Table 4:Wind energy projects under construction. This is a short overview of coming projects in wind energy sector but considering the ability of production they are quite not enough. Looking at the potential to produce 340000MW the production in pipeline is not enough by any means to meet the country’s electric requirements. Given below are the photos of some of the most recent projects completed and in progress.
  • 13.   13   Figure 4: Photos of recent wind energy projects in Pakistan OVERVIEW  OF  RECENT  SOLAR  POWER  PROJECTS   Unlike wind energy Pakistan delayed its concept of using solar energy as a resource. There was a very little focus in the previous years and no such projects have been initiated to utilize solar energy to meet daily demand. NREL with cooperation of USAID, PMD, and AEBD has carried out detailed analysis of available solar energy resources. The solar map of Pakistan depicts the following information. Pakistan lies in most of the sunniest belts around the world. (Alternative Energy Development Board 2015)The mean global irradiation falling on horizontal surface is about 200-250 watt per m2 per day. (Alternative Energy Development Board 2015)About 1500-3000 sun shine hours and 1.9 - 2.3 MWh per m2 per year. (Alternative Energy Development Board 2015). Baluchistan province is particularly rich in solar energy. It has an average daily global insulation of 19 to 20 MJ/m2 per day with annual mean sunshine duration of 8 to 8.5 hours a day and these values
  • 14.  14   are among the highest in the world. For daily global radiation up to 23MJ/m2, 24 consecutive days are available in this area. (Alternative Energy Development Board 2015). Keeping in view the fact that the benefits of solar energy for power generation can be attained in areas where abundant barren land is available and no other development activities like agriculture, livestock, industry etc. is possible. (Alternative Energy Development Board 2015) Such areas include the following: o Most parts of Baluchistan Province o Thal Desert in Punjab o Thar Desert in Sindh o Cholistan Area Figure 5: Pakistan annual global & flat plate tilted horizontal solar radiation (Source: NREL) According to AEDB (Alternative energy development board) recently there have been 31 intent letters for 31 Solar PV against 709.6MW.Upfront Tariff has been awarded to 06 IPPs by NEPRA; these projects are required to achieve financial close by December 31, 2015. (Awan 2015). According to another statement by Pakistan will be able to produce almost 2000MW electricity from different solar projects throughout the country by the end of 2018.They have proposed that all the previous conventional power plants should be replaced with the new solar power plants by partially utilizing the available infrastructure.
  • 15.   15   There are no considerable projects for solar energy but Government of Pakistan have a target of generating 5 % power equals to 9700MW from solar energy by year 2030.According to the current revised project frameworks developed in line with the ambition of the government approximately 709.6MW will be produced from solar by year 2018 with the help of 31 different projects. By the end of year 2016 we will be able to generate 46MW from 6 different projects and 150MW by the end of year 2017 followed by additional 513.6MW through 22 projects in 2018.Considering the huge capacity of utilizing the solar energy in the deserteous areas of Pakistan and availability of barrel lands further projects can be added but due to the current financial constraints this frame work has been developed by GOP and AEDB. Figure 6: Cloud cover trend over Pakistan (Source: NREL)
  • 16.  16   Figure 7: Sunny days per year in Pakistan (Source: NREL) The above figures represent the cloud cover and sunny days per year trend in different cities of Pakistan as per the study conducted by NREL USA. OVERVIEW  OF  HYDROPOWER  STATIONS   Hydropower is an important source in producing electricity in Pakistan. Different hydropower stations throughout the country produces 6000mw approximately, against total installed capacity as 6720mw.pakistan is blessed with huge hydropower resources. there is huge potential of producing around roughly 60,000mw of electricity with the available resources. a chart below represents the provisional wise hydropower potential.
  • 17.   17   Figure 8:Hydropower resources available in Pakistan (PPIB 2011) Breakdown of current installed hydropower capacity in Pakistan province wise is given below. 1. Khyber Pakhtunkhawa 3849 MW 2. Punjab 1699 MW 3. AJ&K 1039 MW 4. Gilgit-Baltistan 133 MW Further details of the upcoming hydro projects have been given on the table 5. The duration for the completion of all hydro projects vary and only an addition of 1200-3000 MW can be expected in next two years, which is still far away than the required demand of 20,000MW/day. In hydropower sector works on detailed engineering and feasibility reports are still in process, which might take another decade to produce something physically. A few projects have had been started but due to political instability and improper planning of completing the projects on time we are still in the early phases of construction.
  • 18.  18   Project Description Location Capacity(MW) Tarbela DamExtension-IV and V (KPK), Indus River 2730 Golen Gol Hydropower Project KPK,Mastuj River 106 Patrind Hydropower Plant Azad Kashmir, Kunhar River 147 Diamer-Bhasha Dam Indus River, Gilgit- Baltistan 4,500 Keyal Khwar Hydropower Project KPK, Indus River 128 Nai Gaj Dam Gaj River, Sindh 4.2 Chashma Hydel Power Project Indus River,Punjab 5 Naltar-V HPP Gilgit, Naltar River 14.4 Naltar-III HPP Gilgit, Naltar River 16 Dasu Dam KPK,Indus River 4,320 Shagarthang Hydropower Project Baltistan,Indus River 26 Taunsa Barrage Hydropower Plant Punjab,Indus River 120 Naulong Dam Mula River,Balochistan 4.4 Gulpur Hydropower Project Azad Kashmir, Poonch River 102 Karot Hydropower Project Jehlum River, Punjab 720 Total 12,943 Table 5: Upcoming hydropower projects in Pakistan Through literature review and analysis of upcoming projects in all renewable and non renewable power sources it was clear that no such measures have been taken to resolve this crisis on immediate basis. The major hurdles are financial constraints, corruption, political instability, and inexperienced individuals, which will be discussed, in the further report. BRIEF  IMPACT  REVIEW  OF  2-­‐DAMS  CONSTRUCTION  CASES   Two major dams were expected to provide approximately 4500MW(Diamer Bhasha) & 2400- 3600MW Kala Bagh to help rescuing through the current worse power outages. Bhasha dam
  • 19.   19   was inaugurated in 2008 but after formal approval from the authorities it was further delayed due to financial constraints. In 2012 all the sponsors including ADB (Asian Development Bank) & World Bank decided not to fund the project considering the disputed territory and asked for NOC to be obtained from India. Further after presenting convincing evidences in 2013 to World Bank and other project sponsors the work was resumed. The expected time for the project completion is 10 years. The construction of the kalabagh dam is another disputed crisis among different stakeholders. The expected electric output from this project was another 3600MW.The government failed to muster the political support needed to build the kalabagh dam on the Indus River, which was the critical part of the plan. The provinces of the Khyber Pakhtunkhawa and Sindh opposed the dam; the former feared the ecological damage and displacement of people that would be caused by the large lake that would result following the construction of the dam, while the latter was afraid that its share of the Indus River water would be reduced. The dam’s construction was supported by Punjab, but it was no sufficient to overcome the opposition of the other provinces. The plan was mothballed. Instead, the government began to develop other plans to construct two dams on the Indus upstream of kalabagh. (Burki n.d.) The timely completion of these above-mentioned two projected would have contributed 8100MW towards energy needs of Pakistan, but due to non-serious attitude from the stakeholders and negligence of risk assessment prior to investing caused a huge delay. Where one project has been agreed to defer and other is still facing financial challenges. Apart from the contribution towards the energy needs these two projects were supposed to bring up huge employment opportunities as well as arrangement to avoid the floods. Every year floods are being observed due to the improper irrigation system. NUCLEAR  POWER  STATIONS  STATUS  IN  PAKISTAN   Nuclear power can be another source of power generation. According to the studies and figure above the whole world is producing 13.50 % of its electricity using nuclear energy whereas Pakistan generated 3.20% of its total production using the nuclear energy. There are several
  • 20.  20   reasons involved for example improper arrangement for dumping the nuclear waste, which is one of the very important issue, the second major issue is Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW capacities, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially. Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining issues in development of nuclear energy are enrichment of uranium from U235 to U238, controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste. (Khan n.d.) PAKISTAN  NUCLEAR  POWER  REACTORS   Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operation Karachi PHWR* 125 1966 1972 Chashma 1 PWR** 300 1993 2000 Chashma 2 PWR** 300 2005 expected 2011 Total 425 MW Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) - Canadian based reactors ** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors (Khan n.d.) USE  OF  BIO  MASS  FOR  ELECTRICITY  PRODUCTION  IN  PAKISTAN   Biomass is also a source of producing energy and being used efficiently across the world but unfortunately Pakistan has never utilized this source for producing energy on a proper state level. Production of energy from biomass includes using waste (Garbage) or some vegetables e.g. sugarcane, corn to generate electricity. The process involves burning of the garbage and retaining the produced methane gas into the pipes and then using the methane gas for
  • 21.   21   producing. Worlds largest biomass energy programs are being done by Brazil and America. I believe that this has not been possible because of the improper system of waste disposal and awareness. People are not aware of the fact that the proper separation and dumping system of the waste (Garbage) can help us utilizing this for producing energy. Government of Pakistan is now keen to look into this subject more efficiently. A recent statement from AEDB (Alternative Energy Development Board) is that we are starting to work on producing energy using biomass of municipal level initially in the twenty major cities across the country. First of all the project will be started in the city of Karachi to produce 10MW using biomass for electricity production followed by the rest the cities. IMPACTS  OF  ELECTRICITY  OUTAGES   The electricity crisis in Pakistan has badly affected all the functions of life, which could have been. The industries lost their way to continue working in such situation and shifted to neighboring countries. For example Faisalabad (City) was once known for its one of the biggest textiles industries in the Asia is now left with nothing. Energy in this era is lifeline for all the activities and economy of a state. The economic progress of Pakistan has been severely damaged by effecting the agricultural productivity and industrial operations. Pakistan is an agricultural country with a lot of people using this as a source of living, the shortages have caused the unavailability of water because of electric pumps and tube wells as well as production of pesticides and fertilizers for farming activities. Production can definitely be improved with the increase in continuous power availability. Most of the farms and agricultural lands are in rural areas where the power outages are even worse than the big cities, in recent years the power outages have been noted as approximately 12hrs(minimum) and 20hrs (maximum) in summers. The industrialists faced huge loss due to unavailability of the electricity for more than 12 hours. Textile industry hence had to shift to Bangladesh causing huge unemployment and there are a
  • 22.  22   lot of such examples in all the sectors of life. Since this crisis started the unemployment has been considerably increased. Seeing the current power crisis the investors were hesitant to start any new business in the state. No considerable businesses have been developed in recent times. Crime rate and terrorism would obviously be triggered when people would not have enough resources to live. This as well have severe adverse effects on the social life as well people suffer to perform daily life activities like cooking, cleaning, sleeping, water and heating. Apart from this load shedding has caused many severe damages on the psychology and social life. People tend to be more aggressive and frustrated due to not having proper sleep in summers when the weather is extremely hot and electricity is not available. Students tend to suffer in their academics and cannot focus on studies well. Electricity is deeply involved in medical center. One can imagine the intensity of huge power cuts in hospitals and their perspective damage. There were several incidents reported where people lost their lives due to electricity unavailability hospitals. Institutions now have somehow developed some alternative personally owned temporary power systems but they are not effective and economical. The availability of individual generators and UPS is now a symbol of financial strength in Pakistan. They are expensive means of managing the basic daily needs for domestic use but still not in the affordability bracket of poor or low- income personnel’s. Life is quite difficult to live without electric power in this era of technology where life is dependent on all the technological instruments. Poverty is increasing day by day due to all of the above factors, which cause unrest. Economy is declining and an approximate figure of people living below poverty line is 40% of total population, which seems to be increasing in coming years if the situation is not improved. Due to the power outages people would protest against the government which causing sometimes fatal damages to the existing infrastructure of human lives as well. There is no area of life which has been damaged by this crisis which needs to be resolved at earliest to turn into a stable country for its residents.      
  • 23.   23   CAUSES  OF  ELECTRICITY  SHORTAGES  IN  PAKISTAN   It is indeed a very indigestible fact that a country rich with all the natural resources is suffering with huge energy shortage. The problem is not the availability of the resources but the management or planning of resources to help overcoming this crisis with dedicative approach by every stakeholder. During the literature review on the subject topic and discussion with experts on energy crisis in Pakistan, following reasons were found to be the major cause of this shortage throughout the country. • Old infrastructure and reliability on oil and gas for generating electricity, which are expensive means for generating electricity considering the financial situation of the country. • Mismanagement of the energy resources. • Aging of equipment. • Silting process. • Illiteracy and poverty • Political instability and negligence of public’s interest. • Poor governance and incompetent professionals running the power sector. • Distribution and transmission losses due to old and poor infrastructure. • Improper bills recovery or electrical theft (Circular Debt). • Prices of electricity for domestic use. • Communication gap between the different organizations involved in generation distribution and recovery of power related matters. • Lack of awareness among the public on electricity saving. • Financial constraints and dependency on different sponsors for initiation of new projects. • Increased population and urbanization. • Use of technology and power based equipment’s in daily life. • Lack of periodical maintenance.
  • 24.  24   CONCLUSION   It is clear from the above discussion that there is huge electric power crisis during the last decade in Pakistan. Despite being having all the resources the nation and residents are suffering, Need of the day is to re-plan the opted development plans after making proper risk analysis along with contingency plans. Government needs to integrate different organizations involved in the energy supply and production, due to communication issues between the different public organizations involved in resolving this crisis the problem is still unsolved. Considering this as one of the major cause for depreciating economy. Pakistan should also make improvements on the energy-demand side—such as by aiming to reduce by half the 30% in losses arising from distribution and transmission (a goal that will entail crackdowns on energy theft). The federal and provincial authorities should be more vigilant about considering necessary maintenance and repairs at the facilities such as generation, distribution, and transmission to reduce leakages and losses. Any efforts to improve energy governance will need to occur in tandem with measures to curb wasteful water consumption. The wrong agricultural practice where the excessive water is used causes more electricity requirement for running the tube wells. In the end Pakistan should better diversify its energy mix. This can be done initially by importing clean coal, which is often cheaper than imported oil and gas. With time, if the political spats over local reserves can be worked out, then the nation would ideally begin to focus on developing indigenous supplies—though a variety of challenges, such as transporting the coal across the nation and overcoming possible resistance to environmental costs, would remain. Pakistan is already making an effort to diversify by pursuing separate pipeline projects with Iran and with Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and India. In the meantime, Pakistan should take advantage of its enhanced commercial relationship with India to import energy from that country. Already, the two nations have concluded a deal to export electricity to Pakistan, and they have created a joint working group on petroleum to explore further possibilities for energy trade. Ultimately, there is just one obstacle to the implementation of these measures, and that is leadership. For years, Pakistani officials have had promising policies at their disposal; yet they have been unwilling or unable to move forward. This spring, if Pakistanis elect leaders with a genuine desire to serve the interests of country, then the end of its long energy struggles could conceivably be in sight.
  • 25.   25   There is a huge capacity available for production of electricity using renewable sources such as hydel , solar, wind. So far the projects initiated and expected to be complete in next 3-4 years are not enough to meet the increasing demand. Government needs to highlight the importance of energy saving to individuals till grass root level by educating them. The PV cells for electricity generation as quite an expensive option considering that the 40% of population lives below poverty line but use of solar heater, water coolers, solar cookers can help saving the nonrenewable energy sources. The domestic use of power is where most of the energy is used so educating people by providing and commercializing solar equipment can help contributing somehow towards the crisis. Government of Pakistan needs to appoint some competent professionals to analyze this and prepare a plan for upcoming years to overcome this crisis. This crisis holds several contributors and considering any single factor being responsible would not be right. Government is unable to resolve this crisis due to lack of interest and incompetent people leading the energy departments. Whereas public is not well aware of the energy saving techniques and its importance to overcome the current situation. Electricity theft is another problem which is not something impossible to manage, until unless the authorities really wants to manage it. The infrastructure is quite older and equipment are quite aged, which reduces the production. Proper periodical maintenance is never been taken into account; maintenance is being done once the problem turns into crisis, which thus causes more trouble and cost. Development & implementation of maintenance strategies’ can help improving the lives of the facilities. The energy crisis produces chaos in society, which causes lack of patience. Improvement is required in all the sectors to improve the situation and overcome this crisis by SUGGESTIONS  &  RECOMMENDATIONS   Through the literature review there are some of the suggestions or recommendations, which can help in a way to manage worse electric power crisis in Pakistan. There are different possible solutions, which can be opted to fix this. The short-term strategy could be to increase the independent power producers by empowering them and supporting them. Reactivation of the closed power stations will definitely contribute something as well. Another short-term solution is to import the electricity from the neighboring countries to somehow manage the daily
  • 26.  26   life needs. In parallel to the earlier given suggestions government should focus more on developing new renewable energy resources to cope up with the coming needs. Apart from the temporary solutions the wrong term solutions need proper planning and efforts. Pakistan is having world’s largest coal reserves, which have not been explored; exploration and management of available resources can help as well. Producing the locally available coal will help producing the cheaper energy rather than producing it from imported oil. Construction of the new proposed dams is the only hope to fulfill the energy needs for coming years. Renewable sources can be the only solution for future, or other economical option could be the production using coal. Educating the public and floating awareness about the energy saving and its importance can be helpful. All the stakeholders need to exhaust some efforts with a approach to resolve this crisis considering their responsibilities. REFERENCES Alternative Energy Development Board. AEDB. 2015. http://aedb.org/index.php/ae- technologies/solar-power/solar-resources (accessed 11 20, 2015). Awan, Amjad Ali. Alternate Energy Development Board. Amjad Ali Awan. 06 10, 2015. http://aedb.org/ (accessed 11 20, 2015). Burki, Shahid Javed. Historical dictionary of Pakistan. 4. Vol. 1. 1 vols. London, England: ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD. HDIP Hydrocarbon Developement Institute of Pakistan. "Pakistan Energy Book." Analysis, Hydrocarbon Developement Institute, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources , 2011. IEA. World Energy Outlook 2011. International Energy Agency, PAris: OECD Publication, 2011. Kessides, Ioannis N. "Chaos in power : Pakistan's electricity crisis." Science direct, January 2013: 273. Khan, Wajahat. Wajahateducation. http://wajahateducation.blogspot.fi/p/essay-energy-crisis- inpakistan-outline-1.html (accessed 11 15, 2015). NEPRA National Elecric Power Regulatory Authority. Annual Report. Annual, NEPRA, NEPRA, 2011a. NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority. "State of Industry." National Electric Power Regulatory, 2011.
  • 27.   27   NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority. "State of Industry Report." NEPRA, 2011b. Omar Ellabban, haitham Abu-Rub , frede Blaabjerg. "Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews." Science Direct, November 2014: 748-764. PPIB. Hydropower resources of Pakistan. Government analysis report, Private power and infrastructure board Pakistan, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad: PPIB, 2011, 12. Sodhar, Irshad Ali. Jworldtimes. 12 1, 2011. http://jworldtimes.com/Article/92011_Pakistan_Rich_in_Natural_Resources_But_Poor_in_their_ Management (accessed 11 19, 2015).