This document is a case study analyzing the conflict in Afghanistan from the Soviet invasion in 1979 through the establishment and rise of the Taliban, detailing the involvement of primary parties such as the Taliban, Afghan government, and the U.S. It discusses threat perceptions, misperceptions, and the role of various secondary parties, as well as decision-making processes related to peace talks and military strategies. The study concludes with recommendations for fostering regional stability and addressing the socio-political complexities of Afghanistan.

1. A Case Study on
Khesrau Hayat Kakakhel
Student of MSc.
Department of Defense & Strategic Studies
Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan

2. Content
1. (Primary Party and Nature of Issue)
2. (Threat Perception by Primary Party)
3. (Misperception by Primary Party)
4. (Role of Secondary Party)
5. (Decision Making by Primary Party)
6. (Conclusion and Recommendations)

3. Primary Parties
&
Nature of the issue

4. The main parties in the issue are:
Taliban (Mujahideen) Afghan Government
United States of America Northern Alliance

5. Background Of The Issue
• Afghanistan was invaded by Soviet Union
(USSR) in 1979.
• A pro-Communist regime of Babrak Kamal
was placed in the country
• But opposition intensifies with various
mujahedeen groups fighting Soviet forces.
US, Pakistan, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia
supply money and arms to the mujahedeen.
• Mohammad Najib Ullah, commonly known
as Najib, replaced Babrak Kamal in 1986
and remained in the office till 1992

6. Mohammad Najib Ullah

7. Background Of The Issue
• The soviet union troops withdrew in
1989 from Afghanistan
• The US, Saudi Arabia, Iran and
Pakistan offer support to an Anti-
Communist Muslim Fighters
(Mujahideen) in Afghanistan.
• In 1992, Mohammad Najib Ullah, the
then President of Afghanistan was

8. Background Of The Issue
• After the removal Najib Ullah, different
factions of Mujahideen agreed to form a
government under Barhan Uddin Rabbani
as the President.
• But the internal situation of Afghanistan
remained uncertain and a civil war was on
going among the militias vying for control
of Kabul, capital of Afghanistan
• Mullah Mohammad Omar, a Muslim
cleric, set up a TALIBAN Movement of

9. Taliban Leaders
Mullah M. Omar Ahmad Shah Mas’ud

10. Background Of The Issue
• Taliban takes control of Kabul in 1996.
• Set government in Afghanistan
• Hangs the then President Mohammad
Najib Ullah.
• Still did not had all over control of
Afghanistan
• 90 percent of the territory was under
the Taliban’s control and the
remained under the opposition forces

11. Main Events
• Soviet intervention in 1979, December
• 1980 - Babrak Karmal installed as ruler,
backed by Soviet Union
• 1985 - Mujahideen come together in
Pakistan to form alliance against Soviet
forces. Half of Afghan population now
estimated to be displaced by war, with
many fleeing to neighboring Iran or
Pakistan.
• 1986 Babrak Karmal replaced by

12. Main Events
• 1988 - Afghanistan, USSR, the US and
Pakistan sign peace accords and Soviet
Union begins pulling out troops.
• 1992 - Najibullah's government toppled
• 1996 - Taliban seize control of Kabul
• 1997 - Taliban recognized as legitimate
rulers by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia
• 1998 - US launches missile strikes at
suspected bases of militant Osama bin

13. Main Events
• 1999 - UN imposes an air embargo
and financial sanctions to force
Afghanistan to hand over Osama bin
Laden for trial.
• 2001 September - Ahmad Shah
Masood, leader of the main opposition
to the Taliban - the Northern Alliance -
is assassinated.
• 2001 October - US-led bombing of
Afghanistan begins following the

14. Main Events
• 2002 January - Deployment of first
contingent of foreign peacekeepers - the
NATO-led International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF) - marking the
start of a protracted fight against the
Taliban.
• 2002 June -Loya Jirga, or grand
council, elects Hamid Karzai as interim
head of state. Karzai picks members of
his administration which is to serve

15. Leaders
• Babrak Kamal, President of Republic
Afghanistan (1979-1986)
• Haji Mohammad Chamkani, President
of Republic of Afghanistan (1986-
1987)
• Mohammad Najib Ullah, President of
Republic of Afghanistan (1987-1992)
• Sibghatullah Mojadadi, President Of
The Islamic State of Afghanistan(1992)
• Professor Burhan Uddin Rabbani,

16. Leaders
• Mullah Muhammad Umar, Chairman
Of The Supreme Council of the Islamic
Emirates of Afghanistan (1996-2001)
• Burhan Uddin Rabbani, President Of
the Transitional Islamic State of
Afghanistan
• Hamid Karzai, President Of Islamic
Republic of Afghanistan. (2004-2014)
• Ashraf Ghani, President of Islamic
Republic of Afghanistan. (2014-

17. Strategy
• The strategy adopted by the Taliban after
the US intervention in Afghanistan is
“Guerrilla Warfare Strategy”
• Which includes looting of convoys, suicide
blasts, usage of Internal Explosive Devices
(IED’s), roadside explosions and hit and
run tactics

18. Threat Perception by the Primary
Parties

19. What is threat ?
A statement of
an intention to
inflict pain,
injury, damage,
or other hostile
action on
someone in
retribution for

20. What is a Threat Perception ?
• Threat perception means
to develop an
understanding
about a potential or
actual risk/threat,
that may be faced
by someone,
sooner or later by
giving a prediction
after witnessing the
situation that

21. Threat Perception by Afghan Government
• Current Afghan government has perceived
numerous threats from Taliban.
• The foremost reason by which the threat is
perceived is the Taliban control over a large
chunk of the land.
• There have been many attacks by the Afghan
Taliban in the country through out the recent
years. For example in the year 2016 alone
Afghan security forces faced 15000 casualties
fighting against Taliban.
• Of Afghanistan's 407 districts, 258 districts were

22. Future Threat Perception
• Such events have set
conditions for
enormous security
challenges in the
coming years.
• The attacks of the
higher profile produce a
greater risk, threat and
security challenges for
the western supported
government in the
center.

23. THREAT PERCIEVED BY TALIBAN FROM
AFGHAN GOVERNMENT
• Taliban did not perceive any threat
from the Afghan Government
directly. However, with the support of
secondary parties in cooperation
with the Afghan Government and
security forces has certainly
threatened Taliban.
• Taliban has perceived the threat from
the central government that their
coercive measure against them by
the help of United States under the
umbrella of “war on terror” are going
to be damaging for them.
• Taliban has also perceived that the
current set up the of the government
is against their interest as it is against
”Shariah Law”.

24. Misperception by Primary Parties

25. Misperception by Afghan
Government
 Afghan Government perceived that the
coalition forces would destroy Taliban within
few weeks but it was a total misconception .
 They promote mullahs as the key political
leaders in the society and state they seek to
create. More than in the 1990s, the Taliban
today also are connected to the international
jihadist networks and seek political support by
opposing foreign occupation.

26. Continue…
 The Taliban are fighting the West. Many people
believe that this is a war between Islam and the
west. Not really; the fight is a struggle for
governance. And many of the fighters don't really
understand precisely what they are fighting for
(other than that they don't want Afghanistan to be
occupied). And most are part-timers anyway. The
local Taliban normally have a better public
broadcast system than ISAF / NATO / the Afghan
Government.

27. Misperception by Taliban :
 Taliban misperceive that Afghan Government is
directly involved in bringing in NATO to
Afghanistan.
 Among both educated and uneducated Afghans,
there is the persistent belief that counterterrorism
is an open-ended excuse used by the
international community, particularly the United
States, to assert control over Afghanistan in order
to extract resources, particularly mineral wealth,
and to prevent the expansion of Chinese and
Pakistani influence in the region

28. Continues…
 Taliban propaganda builds on the widely
perceived corruption of the Afghan
government, the lack of basic services for the
people, and the historical narrative of the fight
against infidel invaders (British, Soviets, and
Americans).
 The Taliban also play on rural people’s
distrust for cities, which are seen as
corrupted and corrupting. It is difficult to trace
the impact of negative role.
 Taliban think that they can destabilize the
whole country and they can take over the
afghan national government and have control
of Kabul..

29. Role of Secondary Parties in the Issue

30. Background
• Afghanistan in nineteenth and half of
twentieth century remained under the
influence of Russia and Britain
• Britain fought three wars against
Afghanistan to root out Soviet
backed-governments
• After 1947 India and Pakistan get
involved in Afghanistan’ affairs

31. Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan
1979-1989
• USA first time directly involved in
Afghanistan issues as a rival of
USSR in Cold War
• Saudi Arabia funded Mujahideen
against USSR and its backed-
government
• Pakistan recruited Mujahideen by
Deobandi Mudarassas and sent
them Afghanistan to fight against

32. Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan
1979-1989
• China also Supported USA’s alliance in
Afghanistan
• India, Iran and Tajikistan slightly backed
USSR
• Iran always opposed Sunni Mujahedeen in
Afghanistan

33. Civil War and Emergence of Taliban in
Afghanistan in 1990s
• Abdication of Najib Ullah in 1992
• Presidency of Burhanudin
Rabbani 1992-1996
• Role and Rule of Taliban 1994-
2001

34. Secondary parties role after 911
up till now in Afghanistan
• Role of USA
• Establishment of Pro-American
Government
• Role of Pakistan
• Role of India
• Role of Iran
• Role of Saudi Arabia
• Role of China
• Role of Russia
• Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan

35. DECISION MAKING BY PRIMARY PARTIES

36. DECISIONS BY AFGHAN GOVERNMENT
 formal talks between the Afghan
government and the Taliban will begin in
the coming weeks.
 On 2nd may2015 Afghan
and Taliban officials hold two days of
“reconciliation” talks in Qatar.
 The High Peace Council was appointed
by Mr. Ghani’s predecessor to negotiate
peace with the Taliban and has some
70 members.
 Afghan president Ashraf ghani visited Continue

37.  On 26th may 2015 afghan security forces
sieged Kabul and ended 0n 27th may in the
early hours of Wednesday morning with the
deaths of four heavily armed attackers.
 Weapons had been seized including a
rocket-propelled grenade launcher, three
automatic rifles and a hand grenade.
 The Afghan government has sent some of
its soldiers to be trained in Pakistan for the
first time as part of an attempt to secure
vital regional help to end the decade-long
Taliban insurgency.
DECISIONS BY AFGHAN GOVERNMENT

38. Recommendations and Conclusion

39. Significances
•Stability of regional states
•Pakistan’s future stakes
•Regional and economic integration

40. Impediments
• Social fabric of Afghanistan
• Political and administrative divisions
• War economy

41. Extra Regional Intevention
• Indian influence
• China’s constructive role
• US ambitions

42. Pakistan’s Key Role
• Support the national reconciliation
• Mediate talks