These are the slides presented at Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University for the Economic Forum on Thursday 13 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter, Edinburgh for the Economic Forum on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
The document summarizes insights from the Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey conducted by the Office for National Statistics between March and June 2020. Key findings include:
- Businesses reported substantially lower turnover during lockdown restrictions in April and May, with more reporting slightly lower turnover in June.
- Accommodation and food services saw the highest rates of substantially lower turnover, while some education and health sectors saw higher turnover.
- Footfall gradually recovered to 2019 levels as non-essential shops reopened in mid-June.
- Universal credit claims decreased to pre-lockdown levels in late June as restrictions eased.
Jim Wiesemeyer - Washington Update: Will Dysfunctional Washington Ever FunctionJohn Blue
Washington Update: Will Dysfunctional Washington Ever Function - Jim Wiesemeyer, Informa Economics, from the 2014 Iowa Pork Congress, January 22-23, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-iowa-pork-congress
The document provides a summary of key findings from the InterTradeIreland Quarterly Business Monitor for Quarter 3 (October to December 2008):
- Only 13% of businesses saw increased turnover in the past quarter, down significantly from 34% in the same quarter the previous year. Optimism about future turnover also declined sharply.
- Similarly, only 11% of businesses reported increased profits in the past quarter, down from 30% the year before. Optimism about future profits also dropped significantly.
- Employment levels declined, with 6% of businesses increasing staff compared to 15% the previous year. Expectations of future staff increases were also low.
- Three-quarters of businesses remained optimistic about their performance over the
This document contains multiple economic indicators and statistics from various sources:
- The fastest growing economies in 2014 based on real GDP growth were Turkmenistan and Ethiopia at 10.3%, while the largest declines were in Libya and Ukraine at -24% and -6.8% respectively.
- Projections for 2015 global growth show developing regions like India and China growing around 7% while advanced economies are projected around 1-2% growth.
- U.S. data shows profits grew much faster than jobs, incomes, or housing between 2008-2014 as the economy recovered from recession.
The document provides a summary of key findings from the InterTradeIreland Quarterly Business Monitor for Quarter 3 (October to December 2008):
- Only 13% of businesses saw increased turnover in the past quarter, down significantly from 34% in the same quarter the previous year. Optimism about future turnover also declined.
- Similarly, only 11% saw increased profits in the past quarter, down from 30% the year before. Optimism about future profits also fell.
- Employment levels declined for 25% of businesses, up from 15% the year before. Pessimism about future employment also rose.
- Three-quarters of businesses remained optimistic about their performance over the next three years, though optimism declined
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter, Edinburgh for the Economic Forum on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
The document summarizes insights from the Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey conducted by the Office for National Statistics between March and June 2020. Key findings include:
- Businesses reported substantially lower turnover during lockdown restrictions in April and May, with more reporting slightly lower turnover in June.
- Accommodation and food services saw the highest rates of substantially lower turnover, while some education and health sectors saw higher turnover.
- Footfall gradually recovered to 2019 levels as non-essential shops reopened in mid-June.
- Universal credit claims decreased to pre-lockdown levels in late June as restrictions eased.
Jim Wiesemeyer - Washington Update: Will Dysfunctional Washington Ever FunctionJohn Blue
Washington Update: Will Dysfunctional Washington Ever Function - Jim Wiesemeyer, Informa Economics, from the 2014 Iowa Pork Congress, January 22-23, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-iowa-pork-congress
The document provides a summary of key findings from the InterTradeIreland Quarterly Business Monitor for Quarter 3 (October to December 2008):
- Only 13% of businesses saw increased turnover in the past quarter, down significantly from 34% in the same quarter the previous year. Optimism about future turnover also declined sharply.
- Similarly, only 11% of businesses reported increased profits in the past quarter, down from 30% the year before. Optimism about future profits also dropped significantly.
- Employment levels declined, with 6% of businesses increasing staff compared to 15% the previous year. Expectations of future staff increases were also low.
- Three-quarters of businesses remained optimistic about their performance over the
This document contains multiple economic indicators and statistics from various sources:
- The fastest growing economies in 2014 based on real GDP growth were Turkmenistan and Ethiopia at 10.3%, while the largest declines were in Libya and Ukraine at -24% and -6.8% respectively.
- Projections for 2015 global growth show developing regions like India and China growing around 7% while advanced economies are projected around 1-2% growth.
- U.S. data shows profits grew much faster than jobs, incomes, or housing between 2008-2014 as the economy recovered from recession.
The document provides a summary of key findings from the InterTradeIreland Quarterly Business Monitor for Quarter 3 (October to December 2008):
- Only 13% of businesses saw increased turnover in the past quarter, down significantly from 34% in the same quarter the previous year. Optimism about future turnover also declined.
- Similarly, only 11% saw increased profits in the past quarter, down from 30% the year before. Optimism about future profits also fell.
- Employment levels declined for 25% of businesses, up from 15% the year before. Pessimism about future employment also rose.
- Three-quarters of businesses remained optimistic about their performance over the next three years, though optimism declined
You don’t need to produce a lot of evidence in your macroeconomics exams but knowing some basic and key facts and figures can make your answers stand out from the crowd! Here is a quickfire journey through twenty important economic numbers that won’t change before the exam – use them to support your answer and impress the examiner!
This document provides an economic outlook and overview of real estate market trends from the Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS. It summarizes that while the US economy continues expanding, growth is slowing both domestically and abroad. Unemployment remains low but risks include high household and government debt levels and potential impacts from international trade disputes. The housing market faces affordability challenges from rising home prices and rents outpacing inflation. Barring a major trade war escalation, the forecast is for continued US expansion in 2020, albeit at a more moderate pace.
This document provides an economic outlook and summary of real estate market trends from the Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS. It notes that while the US economy continues expanding, growth is slowing both domestically and abroad. Unemployment remains low but risks include high household and government debt levels and dependence on foreign investment. Real estate prices continue rising across most sectors, though leasing activity showed slower growth recently. Barring a major trade war escalation, the forecast is for ongoing but slower GDP and job growth through 2020.
During ICCI's May Business Lunch, keynote speaker Antony Kelly shared with our business community key insights on end of the financial year main figures.
Economic optimism has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor. The new poll, conducted between 13-16 March, so before some of this week’s emergency measures were announced, shows seven in ten (69%) now say they think the economy will get worse in the next 12 months – this is up from 42% in February. Just 15% think that the economy will improve, leaving an Economic Optimism Index score of -54. The last time pessimism was this low was in November 2008 (at its worst during the 2008 crisis 75% thought the economy would get worse). Despite this pessimism, around half (49%) believe the Government is handling the coronavirus outbreak well (35% say badly).
The treasurer's report provides the financial results for APNIC for the period ending June 2017. Some key points:
- Revenue was below budget by $192k due to weaker than expected membership growth and lower investment returns.
- Expenses were below budget by $751k.
- The operating surplus was $1.01 million, $559k above budget.
- The full year forecast surplus is $657k, below the budgeted amount by $265k.
- Financial stability remains strong with reserves covering over 15 months of operating expenses.
Arthur D. Little Automotive Report April 2020 Fabrizio Arena
The document provides an analysis of new car registrations in Europe and Italy in April 2020 compared to April 2019. Some key findings include:
- New car registrations decreased by 78.3% in the EU and 97.6% in Italy in April 2020 versus the previous year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- All major European markets saw declines in excess of 90% in April as showrooms were closed for the month across the EU. The largest decreases were in Italy, UK, Spain, Ireland and Belgium.
- In Italy, new car registrations fell over 97% across all regions and customer segments in April compared to the prior year.
The document summarizes the current economic and property outlook for the UK and Birmingham region. It finds that the UK economic recovery has been weaker than expected, with output stagnating and inflation rising. Government spending cuts have also slowed the recovery. While employment is slowly improving, rebalancing the economy away from consumer demand to investment and exports is not happening quickly. For the Birmingham region specifically, GDP and employment growth have lagged the national levels but are also recovering gradually. Rental growth for offices, retail and logistics properties in Birmingham is expected to be modest in the near future.
On Thursday, 28 May 2020, Connor O'Toole hosted a webinar which presented the findings from the report 'Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2020'. The report assesses the future prospects for the Irish economy under three different scenarios: Baseline (“New normal with ongoing physical distancing”, Severe (“Second wave requiring strict lockdown”) and Benign (“Successful disease suppression”).
The webinar featured a presentation by Conr O'Toole and was followed by a Q&A session with co-author Kieran McQuinn.
To view the report, visit our website here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-summer-2020
To watch a video of the webinar, visit our Youtube here:
https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FQl91wpY_bQ&feature=emb_title
Lessons for Inclusive Growth from the US & the World - by Jason FurmanWB_Research
Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and World Bank Chief Economist Kaushik Basu discussed growth strategy on July 21, 2014 at World Bank HQ.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the economy and infrastructure theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
This document summarizes the economic outlook for South Carolina in 2021. It finds that while the state's economy rebounded strongly over the summer and fall of 2020, full recovery is not expected until mid-2021 at the earliest due to continued struggles in the leisure and hospitality industry and supply constraints in the housing market. Vaccine dissemination provides hope, but increasing COVID cases and typical year-over-year slowing could impact growth rates in the second half of 2021.
Arthur D. Little Automotive Report January 2020Fabrizio Arena
Please take a look at our Automotive Report – January 2020 with main registrations results in Europe and Italy
Please note that this issue also includes a Focus on the repercussions that the Coronavirus is beginning to have not only on OEMs production in China but also in Europe and abroad where OEM factories start to shutdown because of supply chain disruption
Rural labour markets in transforming agricultural economies the case of ethiopiaessp2
This document summarizes findings from research on rural labor markets and off-farm income in Ethiopia's transforming agricultural economy. Key findings include:
1) Off-farm income makes up 18% of total rural household income, with wage income contributing 10%. Off-farm income is especially important for poorer households.
2) Rural wages have increased by 70% between 2004-2018, driven by agricultural growth. Higher wages provide incentives for mechanization and use of herbicides in agriculture.
3) Wage increases are linked to poverty reduction, as wages and poverty are negatively correlated. Policy implications include supporting skills development and adoption of technologies to maintain Ethiopia's low-wage advantage as wages rise.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the population theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus PollIpsos UK
As concern about the environment continues to rise, 81% of Britons believe that the Government should take partial or full responsibility for reducing the harm we do to the environment. Within this, 1 in 5 believe the Government should take main responsibility while 61% believe it should be split between the Government, Businesses and the public, an Ipsos MORI Omnibus Survey has found.
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019Ipsos UK
The key findings of the November 2019 edition of our new Social Media Britain report - powered by Synthesio - include:
Overall Brexit continued to lead the conversation in November – however there was a 59% increase in NHS related mentions vs. October. This was driven in part by Corbyn revealing documents that he says indicate a Conservative government would sell off the NHS as part of a US trade deal.
The general election, which is the focus of our deep dive this month, as well as the London Bridge terror attack - both contributed to sizeable shifts in social conversation.
Following the ITV Leaders Debate, there was a sharp increase in conversation around the general election. The release of the Labour and Conservative manifestos seeing further spikes in volume towards the end of November.
When comparing Johnson and Corbyn activity on Twitter in November there were some notable differences in the focus of their posts. Whilst Brexit was mentioned across 42% of Johnson’s tweets – it was only mentioned within 6% of Corbyn’s. Corbyn focused mainly on the NHS, which was mentioned in just over a third of his tweets.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019Ipsos UK
Conservatives hold 12-point lead over Labour heading into final week of the election campaign
Corbyn has improved leader satisfaction ratings since October but still trails Johnson
NHS of increased importance to voters as an election issue
One in four may change their minds on who to vote for before next Thursday
More of the British public are opposed to a second referendum on Scottish independence next year than support one
This document provides statistics and facts about UK manufacturing in 2018/19. Some key points:
- UK manufacturing accounts for 10% of UK output and employs 2.7 million people earning an average of £32,467.
- The top manufacturing regions by output are South East, West Midlands, and North West.
- The UK is the 9th largest manufacturer globally and the top sectors are transport, food/drink, and chemicals.
- Exports go primarily to the US, Germany, France, Netherlands, and China totaling £275 billion or 45% of UK exports.
This document summarizes the agenda and presentations for the ONS Economic Forum. The agenda included welcome and introduction by Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, a presentation on the state of the UK economy by Mike Keoghan, a presentation on the role of labour costs and profits in UK inflation by Stefan Ubovic, and presentations on experimental estimates of green jobs and provisional estimates of greenhouse gas emissions. The forum included discussions on recent inflation trends in the UK, the contributions of labour costs and profits to domestic inflation, estimates of employment in green industries, occupations and firms, and latest estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2022.
You don’t need to produce a lot of evidence in your macroeconomics exams but knowing some basic and key facts and figures can make your answers stand out from the crowd! Here is a quickfire journey through twenty important economic numbers that won’t change before the exam – use them to support your answer and impress the examiner!
This document provides an economic outlook and overview of real estate market trends from the Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS. It summarizes that while the US economy continues expanding, growth is slowing both domestically and abroad. Unemployment remains low but risks include high household and government debt levels and potential impacts from international trade disputes. The housing market faces affordability challenges from rising home prices and rents outpacing inflation. Barring a major trade war escalation, the forecast is for continued US expansion in 2020, albeit at a more moderate pace.
This document provides an economic outlook and summary of real estate market trends from the Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS. It notes that while the US economy continues expanding, growth is slowing both domestically and abroad. Unemployment remains low but risks include high household and government debt levels and dependence on foreign investment. Real estate prices continue rising across most sectors, though leasing activity showed slower growth recently. Barring a major trade war escalation, the forecast is for ongoing but slower GDP and job growth through 2020.
During ICCI's May Business Lunch, keynote speaker Antony Kelly shared with our business community key insights on end of the financial year main figures.
Economic optimism has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor. The new poll, conducted between 13-16 March, so before some of this week’s emergency measures were announced, shows seven in ten (69%) now say they think the economy will get worse in the next 12 months – this is up from 42% in February. Just 15% think that the economy will improve, leaving an Economic Optimism Index score of -54. The last time pessimism was this low was in November 2008 (at its worst during the 2008 crisis 75% thought the economy would get worse). Despite this pessimism, around half (49%) believe the Government is handling the coronavirus outbreak well (35% say badly).
The treasurer's report provides the financial results for APNIC for the period ending June 2017. Some key points:
- Revenue was below budget by $192k due to weaker than expected membership growth and lower investment returns.
- Expenses were below budget by $751k.
- The operating surplus was $1.01 million, $559k above budget.
- The full year forecast surplus is $657k, below the budgeted amount by $265k.
- Financial stability remains strong with reserves covering over 15 months of operating expenses.
Arthur D. Little Automotive Report April 2020 Fabrizio Arena
The document provides an analysis of new car registrations in Europe and Italy in April 2020 compared to April 2019. Some key findings include:
- New car registrations decreased by 78.3% in the EU and 97.6% in Italy in April 2020 versus the previous year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- All major European markets saw declines in excess of 90% in April as showrooms were closed for the month across the EU. The largest decreases were in Italy, UK, Spain, Ireland and Belgium.
- In Italy, new car registrations fell over 97% across all regions and customer segments in April compared to the prior year.
The document summarizes the current economic and property outlook for the UK and Birmingham region. It finds that the UK economic recovery has been weaker than expected, with output stagnating and inflation rising. Government spending cuts have also slowed the recovery. While employment is slowly improving, rebalancing the economy away from consumer demand to investment and exports is not happening quickly. For the Birmingham region specifically, GDP and employment growth have lagged the national levels but are also recovering gradually. Rental growth for offices, retail and logistics properties in Birmingham is expected to be modest in the near future.
On Thursday, 28 May 2020, Connor O'Toole hosted a webinar which presented the findings from the report 'Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2020'. The report assesses the future prospects for the Irish economy under three different scenarios: Baseline (“New normal with ongoing physical distancing”, Severe (“Second wave requiring strict lockdown”) and Benign (“Successful disease suppression”).
The webinar featured a presentation by Conr O'Toole and was followed by a Q&A session with co-author Kieran McQuinn.
To view the report, visit our website here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-summer-2020
To watch a video of the webinar, visit our Youtube here:
https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FQl91wpY_bQ&feature=emb_title
Lessons for Inclusive Growth from the US & the World - by Jason FurmanWB_Research
Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and World Bank Chief Economist Kaushik Basu discussed growth strategy on July 21, 2014 at World Bank HQ.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the economy and infrastructure theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
This document summarizes the economic outlook for South Carolina in 2021. It finds that while the state's economy rebounded strongly over the summer and fall of 2020, full recovery is not expected until mid-2021 at the earliest due to continued struggles in the leisure and hospitality industry and supply constraints in the housing market. Vaccine dissemination provides hope, but increasing COVID cases and typical year-over-year slowing could impact growth rates in the second half of 2021.
Arthur D. Little Automotive Report January 2020Fabrizio Arena
Please take a look at our Automotive Report – January 2020 with main registrations results in Europe and Italy
Please note that this issue also includes a Focus on the repercussions that the Coronavirus is beginning to have not only on OEMs production in China but also in Europe and abroad where OEM factories start to shutdown because of supply chain disruption
Rural labour markets in transforming agricultural economies the case of ethiopiaessp2
This document summarizes findings from research on rural labor markets and off-farm income in Ethiopia's transforming agricultural economy. Key findings include:
1) Off-farm income makes up 18% of total rural household income, with wage income contributing 10%. Off-farm income is especially important for poorer households.
2) Rural wages have increased by 70% between 2004-2018, driven by agricultural growth. Higher wages provide incentives for mechanization and use of herbicides in agriculture.
3) Wage increases are linked to poverty reduction, as wages and poverty are negatively correlated. Policy implications include supporting skills development and adoption of technologies to maintain Ethiopia's low-wage advantage as wages rise.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the population theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
Public Perception of Environmental Impact: Ipsos Omnibus PollIpsos UK
As concern about the environment continues to rise, 81% of Britons believe that the Government should take partial or full responsibility for reducing the harm we do to the environment. Within this, 1 in 5 believe the Government should take main responsibility while 61% believe it should be split between the Government, Businesses and the public, an Ipsos MORI Omnibus Survey has found.
Ipsos MORI Social Media Britain November 2019Ipsos UK
The key findings of the November 2019 edition of our new Social Media Britain report - powered by Synthesio - include:
Overall Brexit continued to lead the conversation in November – however there was a 59% increase in NHS related mentions vs. October. This was driven in part by Corbyn revealing documents that he says indicate a Conservative government would sell off the NHS as part of a US trade deal.
The general election, which is the focus of our deep dive this month, as well as the London Bridge terror attack - both contributed to sizeable shifts in social conversation.
Following the ITV Leaders Debate, there was a sharp increase in conversation around the general election. The release of the Labour and Conservative manifestos seeing further spikes in volume towards the end of November.
When comparing Johnson and Corbyn activity on Twitter in November there were some notable differences in the focus of their posts. Whilst Brexit was mentioned across 42% of Johnson’s tweets – it was only mentioned within 6% of Corbyn’s. Corbyn focused mainly on the NHS, which was mentioned in just over a third of his tweets.
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - 6 December 2019Ipsos UK
Conservatives hold 12-point lead over Labour heading into final week of the election campaign
Corbyn has improved leader satisfaction ratings since October but still trails Johnson
NHS of increased importance to voters as an election issue
One in four may change their minds on who to vote for before next Thursday
More of the British public are opposed to a second referendum on Scottish independence next year than support one
This document provides statistics and facts about UK manufacturing in 2018/19. Some key points:
- UK manufacturing accounts for 10% of UK output and employs 2.7 million people earning an average of £32,467.
- The top manufacturing regions by output are South East, West Midlands, and North West.
- The UK is the 9th largest manufacturer globally and the top sectors are transport, food/drink, and chemicals.
- Exports go primarily to the US, Germany, France, Netherlands, and China totaling £275 billion or 45% of UK exports.
This document summarizes the agenda and presentations for the ONS Economic Forum. The agenda included welcome and introduction by Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, a presentation on the state of the UK economy by Mike Keoghan, a presentation on the role of labour costs and profits in UK inflation by Stefan Ubovic, and presentations on experimental estimates of green jobs and provisional estimates of greenhouse gas emissions. The forum included discussions on recent inflation trends in the UK, the contributions of labour costs and profits to domestic inflation, estimates of employment in green industries, occupations and firms, and latest estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2022.
2018 has been a year dominated by increased uncertainty over the possibility of the UK making a disorderly exit from the European Union and, given the instability of domestic politics at the moment, it would be a surprise if 2019 panned out differently. According to research from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, If the government’s proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. This is roughly equivalent to losing the annual output of Wales or the output of the financial services industry in London. This is equivalent to a loss of 3 per cent in GDP per head, worth around £1,000 per person per annum to people in the UK.
The document summarizes an economic forum held by the Office for National Statistics. It includes an agenda for presentations on the state of the UK economy, measures of economic progress beyond GDP, and experimental regional capital expenditure estimates. The first presentation by the ONS Chief Economist provides an overview of recent economic indicators for the UK like slowing GDP growth, high inflation, and weak business investment. Other presentations explore measuring environmental and social factors related to economic progress and developing subnational capital stock estimates.
The document summarizes the state of the Irish economy and the challenges it faces. It notes that Ireland is experiencing a deep recession with deteriorating public finances, a weakening labor market, and uncertainty in the banking system. Unemployment is rising significantly across many sectors. The outlook for 2009 predicts unemployment will continue rising and public finances and consumer spending will worsen further. Recovery in 2010 depends on international factors and stabilization of the housing market. Limerick faces particular vulnerabilities from its reliance on industries hit hardest by the downturn like construction and manufacturing.
Revision Special Webinar on the UK Economy (May 2018)tutor2u
Eight years after the trough in output following the Global Financial Crisis, the UK economy is slowing down. Demand, output and jobs have been resilient in the two years since the June 2016 Brexit vote – the economy did not “fall off the cliff” as many feared. And the strength of the labour market has been a notable achievement for the Government. But there are now growing signs of a softening in growth in the UK even though the world economy is picking up quite strongly. How much further does the expansion in output have to go before risks of recession emerge once more. In 2018 Britain will be one of the slowest-growing, if not *the* slowest-growing economy in the G20.
The document summarizes recent economic statistics and analysis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) relevant to the West of England region. It presents data on regional gross value added (GVA) growth rates showing the West of England LEP had average annual growth of 1.3% from 1998-2017, below the UK average. Sub-regional productivity analysis is shown comparing NUTS1, NUTS2, NUTS3 and LEP geographies. New service exports data by NUTS1 region is also highlighted.
The document summarizes key points from a presentation at the Office for National Statistics Economic Forum. It discusses the current state of the UK economy based on recent GDP, trade, labor market, inflation, and consumption data. Some key points:
- GDP was flat in Q4 2022 but fell 0.5% in December, driven by declines in several service industries.
- The UK's trade deficit widened to nearly 10% of GDP in 2022 due to higher energy import prices following supply shocks.
- Global supply chain pressures are easing but reported and expected wage growth are still increasing. Job vacancies have begun to fall.
- Inflation is driving pay settlements higher. Individuals
The UK economy experienced strong growth in 2018, with the fastest growth in the OECD. Unemployment is at its lowest level since 1975. However, the UK also has the highest government debt as a percentage of GDP in the world. Business investment has declined recently due to uncertainties surrounding Brexit.
International Investment Analysis: United KingdomMarlène Aimar
As part of my studies, I had to choose one country (the UK) and provide a thorough analysis of the chosen country.
In this presentation, you will find the opportunities existing in the country, the potential risks associated with the country (analysis of the BOP,, the the fluctuations in the exchange rate and the four major risks) and how to manage those risks (hedging currency risk, and reduce the other identified risks).
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 17 July 2023.pptxMattBaker737276
This document summarizes findings from the Office for National Statistics' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey regarding the impact of increased cost of living on adults in Great Britain from February to May 2023. Key findings include:
- 9 in 10 adults reported that the cost of living is an important issue facing UK society.
- Over this period, more adults reported making cuts to essential spending like food and utilities or falling behind on bills and payments compared to previous periods.
- Those already in vulnerable financial circumstances before the increased costs, including disabled people, families with children, and low-income households, continued to report the greatest impacts.
Legacy Foresight, Where next for Northern Ireland legacies? Will to Give Phil...Legacy Foresight
Meg Abdy presented Where next for the Northern Ireland legacy market as part of Will to Give's campaign during Philanthropy Fortnight in Northern Ireland, May 2017. Will to Give is an organisation set up to boost legacy giving in Northern Ireland, supported by a committed group of charities, from local to international. Looking at trends in the UK legacy market, with a focus on the local market in Northern Ireland specifically, this presentation tells us 'where next for legacies?'
This document discusses various methods of measuring living standards and economic well-being beyond GDP per capita. It notes inaccuracies in population estimates that impact GDP calculations and differences in regional disposable incomes within countries. While GDP per capita is traditionally used, economic well-being is multi-dimensional and alternative indicators like the Happy Planet Index or Genuine Progress Indicator may better capture quality of life. Non-market activities, environmental factors, and income inequality also influence well-being but are not reflected in GDP.
This document discusses various methods of measuring living standards and economic well-being beyond GDP per capita. It notes inaccuracies in population estimates that impact GDP calculations and differences in regional disposable incomes within countries. While GDP per capita is traditionally used, economic well-being is multi-dimensional and includes factors like health, inequality, sustainability, and happiness. Alternative indicators that take a broader view are now commonly used to assess living standards and well-being.
Guild of Agricultural Journalists - eoncomic contextRichard Ramsey
Richard Ramsey, Ulster Bank Chief Economist, delivered a presentation to member of the Guild of Agricultural Journalists and other members of the media on the Northern Ireland agri-food sector and the economic context on which it is operation.
Slides from NERI Seminar Belfast: Productivity on the Island of Ireland: A t...NevinInstitute
This document summarizes productivity trends in Ireland and Northern Ireland from the 1920s to present day. It finds that while Ireland saw strong GDP growth, productivity growth was concentrated in foreign-owned firms, hiding weaknesses in domestic firms. Northern Ireland consistently had lower productivity than Ireland and the EU15 average. The document analyzes sectoral and regional output, employment, and productivity. It questions Northern Ireland's focus on corporate tax rates to attract foreign investment, finding skills development and links between foreign and domestic firms are more important drivers of productivity growth. Post-Brexit, the role of the EU in Ireland's growth is a key consideration for Northern Ireland.
The document summarizes the agenda and presentations from the ONS Economic Forum. It includes summaries on the state of the UK economy by the ONS Chief Economist highlighting a slight rise in GDP in January but broadly flat on the quarter. It also includes summaries on owner-occupier housing costs in household cost indices and progress on transforming R&D statistics at ONS. The forum provided insights into the UK economic outlook, drivers of inflation, and improvements in key economic indicators and statistics.
The document summarizes an economic forum held by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It includes presentations on:
- The state of the UK economy, which entered a mild recession in late 2023 while living standards declined. Core inflation remains elevated despite some easing of pressures.
- Labour market data from the Labour Force Survey, which was recently reweighted. This increased population and employment estimates. Rates were also impacted but trends remain clear.
- Questions and answers followed the presentations.
The document summarizes findings related to average hours worked in the UK economy from 1998 to 2022. Key points:
- Average weekly hours worked have decreased for all workers and men, but increased for women over this period.
- The decline in average hours worked partially explains decreases in employment since the pandemic.
- Compositional changes, including a growing share of female and older workers who tend to work fewer hours, explain part of the decline in average hours worked overall.
The document summarizes an event discussing developments beyond GDP metrics for measuring societal progress. It includes the agenda for the event, which has presentations on the UN's 2022 Beyond GDP report, the work of the UN Network of Economic Statisticians, and the European Horizon Project. The event aims to discuss international frameworks and initiatives for developing metrics beyond GDP to provide a more holistic assessment of societal progress.
The document summarizes an economic forum hosted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It includes an agenda with presentations on various topics including public service productivity, transforming price statistics, the state of the UK economy, trends in business dynamism and productivity, and the System of National Accounts 2025. The forum provided an opportunity for the ONS to share updates on key economic statistics and receive feedback.
- The ONS Economic Forum discussed the state of the UK economy and labour market.
- Speakers presented on declining Labour Force Survey response rates, subdued UK GDP growth, strong earnings growth, and measures like real GDI and real income that provide a better view of economic welfare than GDP alone.
- Insights from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings showed ongoing strong earnings inflation across sources, a rightward shift in the earnings distribution, and a record low in low-paying jobs in 2023.
The document summarizes a presentation on measuring societal progress beyond GDP in the UK. It discusses how the Office for National Statistics is developing broader measures of economic welfare, well-being, and sustainability. These include measures of inclusive income and wealth that account for household production, human capital, the environment, and other factors not captured by GDP. The ONS is also reviewing and improving its measures of national well-being across domains like health, education, environment and developing a new well-being dashboard. The goal is to better inform policymaking by measuring what makes life worthwhile beyond economic outputs.
The document summarizes an event discussing recent UK economic data releases from the Office for National Statistics. It includes an agenda for presentations on the latest GDP data and revisions, trade and balance of payments data, and the ONS approach to measuring GDP. The presentations provide details on revisions to GDP estimates from 1997 to 2021, improvements in measuring globalization and other factors, and explain that revisions are common due to updated data sources and balancing different estimates.
This presentation covers the key question: Why dashboards? Local authorities and other public bodies have largely ended publishing reports and now produce dashboards. What are the factors that have contributed to this change?
This is the first presentation from our Workshop on 21 September 2023 on Dashboards, APIs and PowerBI.
This document summarizes an economic forum hosted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The agenda includes welcome remarks, presentations on the state of the UK economy, consumer price inflation persistence, and changes in labor costs and prices. There will also be a question and answer session. Presenters will discuss revisions to GDP estimates, inflation trends, labor market tightness, and how businesses are passing on higher input costs to consumers. The forum aims to provide insights into key economic indicators and price pressures in the UK.
The document provides guidance on connecting to the StatXplore API using Power BI to retrieve updated data. It discusses querying the API, processing the response, and transforming the data. Key steps include preparing the query body, creating queries in Power BI, accessing labels and values from the response, and linking the labels and values tables to create a single flat table for analysis.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
In April 2022, as the impact of increases in the Cost of Living really came to the forefront, Public Health & Communities, Suffolk County Council published a Cost of Living profile as part of the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment.
Alongside a written Cost of Living report ‘Making ends meet: The cost of living in Suffolk’, an interactive dashboard was also created using Power BI. In addition to internal data flows, publicly available data from sources such as the ONS have been used to provide a rich picture of the current situation for the local community.
The dashboard was developed in order to:
• Provide up to date data and information on the Cost of Living for Suffolk County Council, partner organisations, and members of the public.
• Deliver an interactive tool to allow users to focus on areas most relevant to them.
• Demonstrate that, while increases in the cost of living affect everyone, impact will be greatest for those who are already under financial pressure, exacerbating inequalities.
• Provide a source of actionable insight to support the system with the evidence base needed to support project development, drive change and really make a difference in the community.
Features of the dashboard:
• Place-focused - published at smaller geographies where possible
• Collaborative - Includes local data from across the system such as data shared by Citizens Advice and other system partners.
• Automated - Most data sources have automated connections, meaning there is little manual intervention required.
• Self-Service - Making the report publicly available puts data at the fingertips of colleagues, system partners and members of the public.
• Live - The dashboard is a living report which is frequently updated.
This session will:
• Provide a demonstration of Suffolk County Council’s Cost of Living dashboard
• Give an overview of data sources
• Explore opportunities for automation using Power BI
• Discuss how the data dashboard is used locally
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working on cost of living dashboards at the local level.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to promote evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful workshops which will provide practical, technical support to help users make the most of ONS data. The Cross-Government Data Science Community brings together data scientists and analysts to build data science capability across the UK governments and public sector.
We are delighted to welcome you to our inaugural Workshop in our new series, entitled: 'How to use APIs'. The session will cover what Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are, the advantages in using them and a practical demonstration of how they can be used. The journey of two Local Authority analysts as they begin using APIs in place of manual processes will be showcased to the audience. The session will conclude by explaining the plan for the forthcoming series of Workshops that will begin in September and introducing the Slack channel that ONS Local and Cross-Government DS community will be using to support users' technical questions going forward.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on creating data dashboards for internal or external use.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to promote evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful workshops which will provide practical, technical support to help users make the most of ONS data. The Cross-Government Data Science Community brings together data scientists and analysts to build data science capability across the UK governments and public sector.
We are delighted to welcome you to our inaugural Workshop in our new series, entitled: 'How to use APIs'. The session will cover what Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are, the advantages in using them and a practical demonstration of how they can be used. The journey of two Local Authority analysts as they begin using APIs in place of manual processes will be showcased to the audience. The session will conclude by explaining the plan for the forthcoming series of Workshops that will begin in September and introducing the Slack channel that ONS Local and Cross-Government DS community will be using to support users' technical questions going forward.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on creating data dashboards for internal or external use.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to promote evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful workshops which will provide practical, technical support to help users make the most of ONS data. The Cross-Government Data Science Community brings together data scientists and analysts to build data science capability across the UK governments and public sector.
We are delighted to welcome you to our inaugural Workshop in our new series, entitled: 'How to use APIs'. The session will cover what Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are, the advantages in using them and a practical demonstration of how they can be used. The journey of two Local Authority analysts as they begin using APIs in place of manual processes will be showcased to the audience. The session will conclude by explaining the plan for the forthcoming series of Workshops that will begin in September and introducing the Slack channel that ONS Local and Cross-Government DS community will be using to support users' technical questions going forward.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on creating data dashboards for internal or external use.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
From 1 August 2019, the Secretary of State for Education delegated responsibility for the commissioning, delivery and management of London’s Adult Education Budget (AEB) to the Mayor of London. The AEB helps Londoners to get the skills they need to progress both in life and work. The overarching aim of London’s AEB is to make adult education in London even more accessible, impactful and locally relevant.
In this presentation, the Greater London Authority will be going through the results of the pioneering 2021/22 London Learner Survey (LLS). The survey’s objective is to gain insight into the outcomes of learners to inform and improve policy. The LLS consists of two linked surveys of learners who participated in GLA-funded Adult Education Budget (AEB) learning in the academic year 2021/22.
In the LLS, Learners are surveyed prior to and 5-7 months after completing their course to estimate the economic and social changes that learners experience following an AEB course.
In particular, the presentation will show the economic impact broken down by:
. Progression into employment
. Progression within work
. Progression into further learning.
The social impact will be explored by looking at changes in:
. Health and wellbeing
. Improved self-efficacy
. Improved social integration
. Participation in volunteering
The presentation will also cover how outcomes vary by funding type, breaking down the results by Community Learning and Adult Skills.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on skills, education and employment.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
Are you interested in finding, visualising, comparing and downloading a wide range of geographically granular datasets in one place? If so, this webinar is definitely for you!
We will present ONS plans for the development of Explore Subnational Statistics (ESS), a public-facing digital service that will allow users to find out more about local areas across the UK.
We will retrace the main milestones in our journey to date, starting from the launch of ESS vision in the GSS subnational data strategy, then taking a closer look at the Subnational Indicators Explorer, and, finally, outlining a roadmap towards the Beta version of the service.
This event is open to all, however we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level, with data on the policy themes of economy, transport connectivity, education, skills, health and wellbeing, or interested in data visualisation products.
If you have any questions, please contact onslocal@ons.gov.uk
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
Education and qualifications have been included as a separate analysis topic in Census for the first time in 2021. In this presentation the Census 2021 Education Analysis team will go through the results from the first two publications in their Analysis Plans, focusing on their impact and use for local authorities and other local users.
In the first publication published on 17th February 2023, 'How workforce qualification levels differ across England and Wales', the analysis looked at qualifications in the workforce population (adults aged 16 years and over who are economically active). The piece focused on trends across local authorities, exploring themes including the North-South divide, coastal towns and regional inequality.
The second publication examines the variations in the levels of qualifications that people hold by their country of birth. This includes establishing patterns across UK geographies for international migrants.
The session included live demonstrations of the interactive maps used in the publications, and how the data can be used by local authorities.
This recording is open to all, however we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on skills, education and employment.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk
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1. Economic Forum - Cardiff
13 June 2019
Twitter: @ONS #Econstats
13 June 2019
2. Agenda
09:30 – 10:00 Registration with tea and coffee
10:00 – 10:10 Welcome and introduction – Huw Dixon
10:10 – 10:20 Statistics for the public good – Ed Palmer
10:20 – 10:40 Understanding the UK economy – Marilyn Thomas
10:40 – 11:00 County and Regional Public Sector Finance – Foyz Khatun
11:00 – 11:15 Regional Household Income – Trevor Fenton
11:15 – 11:25 Regional GDP – James Scruton
11:25 – 11:35 Question and answer session
11:35 – 11:55 Coffee break
11:55 – 12:15 Dr Annette Roberts, Cardiff University
12:15 – 12:30 Question and answer session and close
4. Statistics for the public
good
Deputy Chief Economist, Economic Advice and Analysis
Office for National Statistics
economic.advice@ons.gov.uk
Ed Palmer
5. To discuss today
• UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National Statistics: our status and
role
• What the ONS does
• Why we are transforming
• Some examples of how we are transforming
6. The status and role of the UK
Statistics Authority
• An independent statutory body
• Operating at arm’s length from government as a non-ministerial
department, reporting directly to the UK’s Parliaments and Assemblies
• In law (the Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007) our objective is:
“promoting and safeguarding the production and publication of official
statistics that serve the public good”
• And that public good includes:
• informing the public about social and environmental matters
• assisting in the development and evaluation of public policy
• regulating quality and publicly challenging the misuse of statistics
8. Who are we?
• Economic, public policy and population statistics
• Other government Departments also provide statistics, e.g. energy, health,
environment
• Our responsibility is for coherence of system as a whole
• Census provider in England and Wales
• Office locations in Newport, Titchfield, London
UK Statistics
Authority
Other
government
stats producers
Office for
National
Statistics
Office for
Statistics
Regulation
10. And a lot more:
GDP growth Inflation (Un)employment Wages
Trade Public finances
Regional and country
economic data
Crime
Births, deaths and
marriages
Population Migration Health and social care
Personal income and
wealth
Well-being Environment …and more
11. Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How much
is spent
Output
GDP (O)
How much
is produced
Income
GDP (I)
How much
is earned
12. Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How much is spent
Use of credit
card data
Retail sales
Output
GDP (O)
How much is
produced
Use of VAT data
Purchases
Survey
Income
GDP (I)
How much is
earned
Use of PAYE &
Self-Assessment
data
14. Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence
• National Accounts and Beyond GDP
• Productivity and the modern economy
• Regional and labour market statistics
• www.escoe.ac.uk
Economic statistics analysis, research
15. Economic forum- Cardiff
Understanding the UK
economy
Head of International Trade Analysis
Office for National Statistics
Dr Marilyn Thomas
13 June 2019
16. Contents
• GDP
• Labour Market
• Inflation
• Productivity
• Economic well-being
Economic forum- Cardiff
19. Economic forum- Cardiff
Growth in services output drives GDP growth in Quarter 1 2019
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1
Services Production Construction Agriculture, forestry and fishing GDP
%, percentage points
20. The UK economy was the fifth-fastest growing G7 economy in 2018 with signs of a
loss of momentum in the wider global economy
Economic forum- Cardiff
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
US Canada France Germany UK Japan Italy
2018 GDP growth 2017 to 2018 change in GDP growth
%, percentage points
22. Economic forum- Cardiff
The gap between unemployment and vacancies has been narrowing
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Vacancies Unemployment level
Thousands
23. The percentage of self-employment in total employment had an upward trend since
2000
Economic forum- Cardiff
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
%
24. Economic forum- Cardiff
Pay for employees (including bonuses) increased by 1.3% on the year when adjusted
for inflation
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total pay (nominal) Total pay (real)
%
26. Economic forum- Cardiff
Younger people are more likely to change jobs
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
16 to 20 years 21 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 49 years 50 to 64 years 65 years and over
27. Most workers change jobs within the same region or country
Economic forum- Cardiff
2018
2017 North EastNorth West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
South
West East London South East Wales Scotland
Northern
Ireland
North East 82.0 0.7 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.2
North West 2.8 83.8 2.8 2.2 3.2 1.1 1.0 2.1 1.3 4.4 0.7 0.7
Yorkshire and the
Humber 3.0 2.4 80.5 5.1 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.9 0.3
East Midlands 1.0 1.4 3.9 74.5 4.8 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.0
West Midlands 1.2 2.4 2.1 5.0 77.4 3.1 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.2
South West 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.9 81.9 1.2 1.6 2.6 3.3 0.6 0.5
East 0.4 1.7 2.4 6.0 2.9 2.1 77.8 4.2 3.3 1.5 0.8 0.9
London 2.3 1.6 1.9 1.2 3.2 2.2 7.3 74.8 8.2 2.1 1.6 0.6
South East 4.3 2.2 1.8 3.1 3.0 5.3 5.4 9.1 76.7 1.8 1.0 0.8
Wales 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.0 82.9 0.2 0.2
Scotland 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.0 91.3 0.2
Northern Ireland 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 95.4
29. Overeducation was highest in London in 2017
Economic forum- Cardiff
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North East North West Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East of
england
London South East South West Wales Scotland Northern
Ireland
%
31. 12-month growth rates of CPIH and input PPI increased, while output PPI fell in April
2019
Economic forum- Cardiff
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2010 APR 2011 APR 2012 APR 2013 APR 2014 APR 2015 APR 2016 APR 2017 APR 2018 APR 2019 APR
CPIH (RHS) Input PPI (LHS) Output PPI (LHS)
% %
32. Economic forum- Cardiff
London is the most expensive region, with average house prices close to £200,000
higher than any other region or country
2017 2018 Change
London £480,000 £478,000 -0.4%
South £286,000 £294,000 +2.8%
Midlands £183,000 £192,000 +4.9%
Wales £151,000 £157,000 +4.0%
North £150,000 £155,000 +3.3%
Scotland £143,000 £149,000 +4.2%
Northern Ireland £128,000 £133,000 +3.9%
35. Economic forum- Cardiff
London and the South East were the only regions above the UK output per hour average
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
North East North West Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East London South East South West Wales Scotland Northen
Ireland
2016 2017 UK
Index, UK = 100
38. Find out more
• Quarterly economic commentary
• Labour market economic commentary
• Economic review
• Analysis of job changers and stayers
• Overeducation and hourly wages in the UK labour market
• Prices economic commentary
• Labour productivity
• Measures of National Well-being Dashboard
41. Overview
• What are the country and regional public sector
finances?
• Statistics on Wales
• Future plans
Economic Forum, Cardiff
42. What are the country and regional public
sector finances?
• First published in May 2017
• Provides information on public sector revenue and expenditure
for NUTS1 countries and regions of the UK
• Based on methods initially developed by Scottish Government
in their GERS publication
Economic Forum, Cardiff
43. Main aggregates
• Public sector revenue: mainly taxes, but also social
contributions, interest, dividends – measured on a ‘who pays’
basis
• Public sector expenditure: mainly wages and salaries, goods
and services, social benefits, expenditure on fixed capital –
measured on a ‘who benefits’ basis
• Net fiscal balance: gap between public sector expenditure and
public sector revenue
Economic Forum, Cardiff
44. Economic Forum, Cardiff
-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000
London
South East
East of England
South West
East Midlands
Northern Ireland
North East
Yorkshire & the H.
West Midlands
Wales
Scotland
North West
£ million
Net fiscal balance for 2017/18, by NUTS1 countries and regions
North Sea revenue - population share North Sea revenue - geographic share
Source: Office for National Statistics
45. Economic Forum, Cardiff
Public sector revenue, expenditure and net fiscal balance per head for 2017/18, by NUTS1
countries and regions
Source: Office for National Statistics
North Sea revenue
geographic share
North Sea revenue
population share
North Sea revenue
geographic share
North Sea revenue
population share
Northern Ireland 9,255 9,275 14,195 4,940 4,920
Wales 8,691 8,710 13,085 4,394 4,375
North East 8,938 8,963 12,604 3,666 3,641
North West 9,452 9,473 12,336 2,884 2,863
Scotland 11,230 10,986 13,682 2,452 2,696
West Midlands 9,308 9,328 11,582 2,274 2,254
Yorkshire and the Humber 9,416 9,446 11,580 2,164 2,134
East Midlands 9,883 9,906 11,146 1,263 1,240
South West 10,685 10,706 11,553 868 847
United Kingdom 11,454 11,454 12,090 636 636
East of England 11,936 11,958 10,970 -966 -988
South East 13,427 13,447 11,169 -2,258 -2,278
London 17,090 17,110 13,185 -3,905 -3,925
Public sector revenue per head Net fiscal balance per headPublic sector
expenditure per
head
2017/18 (£s)
46. Economic Forum, Cardiff
Source: Office for National Statistics
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
£ million
Public sector revenue and expenditure, Wales, 1990/00 to
2017/18
Total current receipts (incl. North Sea revenue by population share) Total managed expenditure
47. What affects revenue and expenditure?
• Population and demographics
• Economic activity – businesses, employment,
investment, etc.
• Consumer behaviour
• Regional prices
• Reserved vs devolved powers
• Many other things!
Economic Forum, Cardiff
48. Economic Forum, Cardiff
Population 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Regional GVA (£mn) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Northern Ireland 1,829,700 1,840,500 1,851,600 1,862,100 1,870,800 Northern Ireland 34,110 35,194 36,259 38,228 39,609
North East 2,610,600 2,618,700 2,624,600 2,636,600 2,644,700 North East 47,342 49,093 50,661 51,625 53,235
Wales 3,082,400 3,092,000 3,099,100 3,113,200 3,125,200 Wales 54,717 56,050 57,928 60,296 62,188
East Midlands 4,598,500 4,637,400 4,677,400 4,725,400 4,771,700 East Midlands 90,823 94,721 97,186 100,818 104,239
Scotland 5,327,700 5,347,600 5,373,000 5,404,700 5,424,800 Yorkshire & the H. 103,105 106,080 110,964 113,947 116,774
Yorkshire & the H. 5,337,900 5,360,100 5,390,200 5,425,400 5,450,100 South West 114,915 120,966 123,367 127,291 130,636
South West 5,377,700 5,423,300 5,471,600 5,517,000 5,559,300 West Midlands 112,543 118,310 122,636 128,360 133,115
West Midlands 5,675,000 5,713,400 5,755,000 5,810,800 5,860,700 Scotland 123,088 129,016 129,969 133,978 138,251
East of England 5,951,900 6,017,300 6,076,000 6,129,000 6,168,400 East of England 130,147 137,075 142,075 146,893 152,803
North West 7,103,500 7,133,000 7,175,200 7,224,000 7,258,600 North West 149,835 155,219 161,640 167,223 173,614
London 8,417,500 8,539,400 8,666,900 8,769,700 8,825,000 South East 233,619 243,585 253,290 259,458 267,114
South East 8,793,200 8,874,000 8,949,400 9,030,300 9,080,800 London 355,217 380,257 389,616 413,689 431,164
Median earnings (£) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Employment level 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
North East 20,048 20,155 20,667 21,356 21,787 Northern Ireland 790,094 806,254 826,781 836,693 822,250
Yorkshire & the H. 20,082 20,246 20,496 21,251 21,454 North East 1,128,834 1,167,171 1,172,126 1,192,163 1,219,216
Northern Ireland 18,473 19,487 20,332 20,969 21,217 Wales 1,379,158 1,385,588 1,377,796 1,451,589 1,464,727
Wales 19,725 20,032 20,574 21,000 21,500 East Midlands 2,117,625 2,188,900 2,234,885 2,254,502 2,287,882
East Midlands 20,887 20,900 21,070 21,790 22,000 Yorkshire & the H. 2,444,178 2,474,654 2,495,505 2,508,719 2,569,206
South West 20,320 20,711 21,197 21,807 22,083 Scotland 2,534,178 2,581,287 2,631,675 2,595,862 2,647,036
North West 20,578 20,718 21,050 21,622 21,986 West Midlands 2,550,787 2,565,268 2,625,621 2,665,618 2,666,568
West Midlands 20,600 20,464 21,038 21,789 22,265 South West 2,533,424 2,614,942 2,664,996 2,686,085 2,752,936
Scotland 21,522 21,769 22,470 22,971 23,176 East of England 2,855,831 2,944,062 2,990,105 3,019,718 3,026,677
East of England 23,167 23,259 23,471 24,218 24,603 North West 3,193,899 3,216,445 3,323,567 3,392,440 3,462,486
South East 23,868 24,385 24,884 25,348 25,802 South East 4,222,285 4,364,920 4,461,915 4,509,091 4,537,702
London 27,956 27,988 28,282 28,832 29,625 London 4,088,930 4,222,463 4,350,699 4,459,822 4,489,327
Sources: Office for National Statistics
50. Economic Forum, Cardiff
Most revenue raised in Wales is from VAT
Source: Office for National Statistics
19.2%
19.4%
18.6%
18.5%
18.2%
22.9%
23.3%
23.7%
23.2%
23.5%
16.2%
15.9%
16.0%
16.7%
16.8%
8.8%
8.5%
8.9%
8.5%
8.4%
5.2%
5.3%
5.5%
5.4%
5.5%
9.5%
9.2%
9.0%
8.6%
8.4%
3.8%
4.1%
4.3%
4.8%
4.8%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
3.8%
14.0%
14.1%
14.2%
14.8%
15.5%
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
Main sources of revenue in Wales, 2013/14 to 2017/18
VAT Income tax National Insurance Contributions
Gross operating surplus Excise duties Council tax
Onshore corporation tax Business rates Other revenue
51. Economic Forum, Cardiff
Most expenditure occurs under social protection
Source: Office for National Statistics
36.9%
37.5%
37.5%
36.8%
36.3%
16.4%
16.9%
17.1%
17.7%
17.8%
11.0%
10.4%
10.6%
10.6%
10.5%
8.3%
7.9%
7.8%
8.0%
8.4%
7.9%
8.2%
7.6%
8.0%
7.7%
6.5%
6.3%
6.5%
6.2%
6.7%
4.6%
4.6%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
3.7%
3.8%
3.4%
3.4%
3.6%
4.5%
4.5%
5.1%
4.8%
4.7%
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Main categories of functional spending for Wales, 2013/14 to 2017/18
Social protection Health Education General public services Accounting Adjustments
Economic affairs Defence Public order and safety Other functions
52. Future plans
• Aim to publish 2018/19 data in Winter 2018/19
• Continue to improve methods and harmonise with other
publications
• SR19 aims include:
• introducing guide for producing sub-NUTS1 statistics –
further collaboration with combined authorities
• further development of methods (e.g. workplace based
estimates) and use of admin data
• National Statistics accreditation
Economic Forum, Cardiff
56. Resources
Social benefits
Other current transfers
Uses
Taxes on income and wealth
Social contributions
Other current transfers
Secondary distribution of income
57. Gross disposable household income
• Money available for spending or saving
• Includes everyone resident in an area, whether living in
a traditional household or a communal establishment
• Can be divided by population to give GDHI per head, to
allow comparison across different sized areas
59. 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
United
Kingdom
England North East North West Yorkshire and
The Humber
East Midlands West Midlands East of
England
London South East South West Wales Scotland Northern
Ireland
Gross Disposable Household Income per head: 2015 to 2017 (£ pounds)
2015 2016 2017
65. Composition of Welsh economic regions
North Wales Mid and South West Wales South East Wales
Isle of Anglesey Powys Central Valleys
Gwynedd South West Wales Gwent Valleys
Conwy and Denbighshire Bridgend and Neath Port Talbot Cardiff and Vale of Glamorgan
Flintshire and Wrexham Swansea Monmouthshire and Newport
66. 16,447
15,071
16,486 16,600
16,968
1,821 1,916 1,882
2,133
1,661
12037
9,888
10,945
11,511
13,873
2503 2,491 2,587 2,422 2,466
5727
5,365
6,226
5,851
5,486
North Wales Economic Region Gwynedd Conwy and Denbighshire Isle of Anglesey Flintshire and Wrexham
Components of Income per head: 2017 (£ pounds)
GDHI Rental Wages Investments Benefits
71. What am I
going to
cover?
What data do we currently have on the Welsh economy?
Why regional GDP?
Challenges
About regional GDP
Regional GDP/Welsh Short-Term Indicators
Limitations
Future developments
72. What data do we currently have on the Welsh economy?
National Estimates of GDP
Regional estimates of GVA
Welsh Short-Term indicators
73. • Meets user demand
for quicker estimates
of the economies of
the regions and
nations of the UK
• In line with
recommendations
from the Bean review
of economic statistics
Why Regional GDP?
74. • Data sources
• Methodological challenges
• Emerging systems
• Consistency with other
estimates
75. About regional GDP
• Calculated using millions of VAT returns
• In some instances alternate data sources will
be available e.g. construction
• Data will be provided by region and industry
• Coherent with national estimates of GDP and
regional accounts
• Published in late summer/ early August
76. Regional GDP/Welsh Short-Term Indicators
Regional GDP Welsh Short-Term Indicators
Covers whole economy Market sector only
Published by ONS Published by Welsh Govt, data
provided by ONS
Benchmarked to Regional Accounts No benchmarking carried out
Using cloud based systems Uses legacy systems
Incorporates VAT data Uses Survey data
There are also methodological differences between Regional GDP and
Welsh Short-Term Indicators such as constraining to national
estimates and industry classification
78. Future
developments
Consultation with users
Fine-tuning our methods
Combine this work with the flexible geography project
and develop the capability to provide quarterly “real”
GVA estimates for any user-specified area
Improvements to data sources e.g. construction