On Thursday, 28 May 2020, Connor O'Toole hosted a webinar which presented the findings from the report 'Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2020'. The report assesses the future prospects for the Irish economy under three different scenarios: Baseline (“New normal with ongoing physical distancing”, Severe (“Second wave requiring strict lockdown”) and Benign (“Successful disease suppression”).
The webinar featured a presentation by Conr O'Toole and was followed by a Q&A session with co-author Kieran McQuinn.
To view the report, visit our website here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-summer-2020
To watch a video of the webinar, visit our Youtube here:
https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FQl91wpY_bQ&feature=emb_title
Senior Research Officer, Conor O'Toole; Research Professor, Kieran McQuinn; and Associate Research Professor, Adele Bergin presented an overview of the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2020 to the media on Wednesday, 7 October 2020 ahead of the document's publication on Thursday, 8 October 2020..
Read the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2020 on the ESRI website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-autumn-2020
A video of the presentation can be viewed here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGfSllDvmvg
Learn all about the economic outlook from Sage Policy Group, Inc.'s presentation for Citrin Cooperman's October 19 event, Economic Summit: Planning Your Business for Tomorrow's Economy.
Senior Research Officer, Conor O'Toole; Research Professor, Kieran McQuinn; and Associate Research Professor, Adele Bergin presented an overview of the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2020 to the media on Wednesday, 7 October 2020 ahead of the document's publication on Thursday, 8 October 2020..
Read the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2020 on the ESRI website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-autumn-2020
A video of the presentation can be viewed here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGfSllDvmvg
Learn all about the economic outlook from Sage Policy Group, Inc.'s presentation for Citrin Cooperman's October 19 event, Economic Summit: Planning Your Business for Tomorrow's Economy.
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter, Edinburgh for the Economic Forum on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
Abdoulaye Seck
POLICY SEMINAR
Making the most of intra-African trade: the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor
Co-Organized by IFPRI and AKADEMIYA2063
SEP 23, 2021 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies On Food Service Indus...SlideTeam
Foodservice industry has been hit hardest as government closes restaurants and bars in order to slow down the coronavirus spread. This presentation will help an organization in addressing a collection of COVID 19 outbreak impact assessment and mitigation strategies reported in food service industry. Following presentation compromises mainly four sections namely food service industry overview, risk assessment and its impact, how risks are mitigated and risk maturity model survey questionnaire. At first, food service industry overview section will help the organization in highlighting coronavirus pandemic impact on global food industry, average change in sales of top two hundred food chain businesses, impact on food service spending behavior and sales originated from third-party delivery partners. Risk assessment and its impact section will cover five major risk caused by coronavirus in food service industry namely disruption due to social distancing, plummeting employee productivity, stressed supply chain, recession, unemployment and investment pullout, economic instability and civic unrest. How risks are mitigated section will help the firm in addressing the measures taken by food service industry to tackle coronavirus outbreak. Sub headings covered in the section are business impact analysis, risk readiness assessment, risk management plans, business continuity plans, policy management and incident management. At last, risk maturity model survey questionnaire section will help the organisation to address survey results of questionnaires asked from customers who usually go out for dinning at restaurants. https://bit.ly/2OnYvio
The results of our latest Deloitte Consumer Tracker show signs of distress as consumer confidence continues to fall for the third quarter in a row. In particular, consumer confidence in disposable income and level of debt fell by seven and four percentage points respectively this quarter to reach their lowest level in over three years.
Roman Romashkin
POLICY SEMINAR
Virtual Event - Food Policy Research and Capacity Development in Eurasia
Co-Organized by the Eurasian Center for Food Security (ECFS), World Bank Group, and IFPRI
DEC 2, 2020 - 07:30 AM TO 09:00 AM EST
Karl Pauw1, Bernard Tembo2 & James Thurlow1
1. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
2. Zambia Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Last updated: 6 April 2021
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies In Oil And Gas Indust...SlideTeam
The pandemic outbreak has deep impacts on the oil and gas industry. Due to COVID 19, there is a significant decrease in demand across regions such as the US, UK, India, and other European countries. The virus has forced companies to slow or stop the physical operations, which impacted the production of the upstream sector. There is an oil price crash in major oil and gas companies. We have created this deck to cover the impact of coronavirus in the oil and gas industry along with the mitigation strategies. In this template, we have focused on an overview of the oil and gas sector wherein pandemic impact on global and US economy, effects of COVID 19 in leading oil consuming countries, US oil price hit, implications, global lubricants market have been focused. Risks have been assessed such as disruption due to social distancing, employee productivity, supply chain, recession, unemployment, investment pull back, economic instability, and civil unrest has been covered in this deck. Risks mitigation strategies are analyzed which focuses on business impact analysis, risk readiness assessments, risk management plans, business continuity plans, policy management, and incident management. The risk maturity model survey questionnaire along with the results are also covered in this template. https://bit.ly/30zIqZj
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a faster pace in January (+1.0%) year over year than in December (+0.7%). The acceleration in consumer prices was largely due to higher prices for durable goods (+1.7%) and rising gasoline prices (+6.1%) compared with December 2020. Excluding gasoline, the CPI grew 1.3% in January—up from a 1.0% increase in December.
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210217/dq210217a-eng.htm
Food
COVID19 and Food Prices - https://www.brockpress.com/covid-19-to-cause-increase-in-national-food-prices/
https://www.greenhousecanada.com/funding-call-for-local-food-projects-33051/ - The problem with greenhouses relates to CO2 - https://ggs-greenhouse.com/heating-systems/carbon-dioxide-co2-dosing
Average house price in Canada is now $621K - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canadian-housing-markets-set-records-again-in-january-820519482.html
Emerging Paradigm for India's Manufacturing Sector Sudeeksha Gupta
A presentation based on our research paper " Emerging Paradigm for India's Manufacturing Sector". It assesses the general potential impact of the shock on various segments of the economy with specific details of impact on the manufacturing sector, the factors stimulating it and analyse the policies that have been announced so far by the central government to ameliorate the economic shock and put forward a set of key recommendations for businesses and Indian economy.
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 CrisisEdouardLotz
La crise sanitaire, économique et énergétique provoquée par le coronavirus a bouleversé les grands équilibres mondiaux. Dans le domaine de l'énergie, l'effondrement de la demande, provoquée par les mesures de confinement, a entraîné le prix des matières premières à des niveaux historiquement bas, mettant en péril l'industrie de ce secteur.
Ce rapport (en anglais) vise à détailler comment le coronavirus a affecté l'économie mondiale et les marchés énergétiques, avec un focus sur le marché pétrolier, particulièrement touché par cette crise.
Les perspectives d'avenir pour la consommation, la production et les prix des différentes matières premières (pétrole, gaz naturel, charbon et électricité) sont analysées au sein de cette publication, afin de donner une idée globale du futur secteur énergétique.
Une dernière partie, rédigée par Ronan Fleckstein, est consacrée aux effets de cette crise sur l'économie, le secteur hospitaliers et la chute des revenus pétroliers des Etats africains.
Ce rapport est également disponible sur le site américain Energy Central : https://energycentral.com/c/og/global-oil-market-and-covid-19-crisis-impact-and-forecast
N'hésitez pas à partager, télécharger ou commenter cette publication.
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies In Airlines Industry ...SlideTeam
Major sectors affected by COVID 19 outbreak at global level are tourism and travel, retail and airlines. Following presentation will allow a firm to address a collection of COVID 19 outbreak impact assessment and mitigation strategies reported in airlines industry. This presentation consists mainly five sections namely airlines industry overview, airlines financial analysis, risk assessment and its impact, how risks are mitigated and risk maturity model survey questionnaire. Firstly, airlines industry overview section will help the organization in addressing coronavirus impact on aviation tourism trade and global economy, impact on passenger traffic and revenues, impact on average trip length and impact on global as well as domestic RPKs. Airlines financial analysis section will help the organisation in addressing financial impact of COVID 19 outbreak on airlines industry. Risk assessment and its impact section will cover five major risk caused by coronavirus in airlines industry namely disruption due to social distancing, plummeting employee productivity, stressed supply chain, recession, unemployment and amp; investment pullout, economic instability and amp; civic unrest. How risks are mitigated section will help the firm in addressing measure taken by airlines industry to tackle COVID 19 outbreak. Sub headings covered in the section are business impact analysis, risk readiness assessment, risk management plans, business continuity plans, policy management and incident management. Finally, risk maturity model survey questionnaire section will help the organisation to address survey results of questionnaires asked from frequent flyers. https://bit.ly/37F8iHL
Manufacturing & Distribution Update: The Economic Impact on the IndustryCitrin Cooperman
This presentation focused on what the future is likely to bring to manufacturers and distributors as the nation attempts to claw its way back from the worst of the COVID-19 crisis.
Associate Research Professor, Conor O'Toole and Research Professor, Kieran McQuinn presented an overview of the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2021 to the media on Wednesday, 24 March 2021 ahead of the document's publication on Thursday, 25 March 2020.
The publication can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-spring-2021
A video of the presentation can be watched here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKqt2fUgDq0
Associate Research Professor, Conor O'Toole and Research Professor, Kieran McQuinn presented an overview of the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2021 to the media on Wednesday, 6 October 2021 ahead of the document's publication on Thursday, 7 October 2021.
Despite the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, both domestic and foreign sources of growth have contributed to the Irish economy’s robust performance in 2021. As public health measures are eased considerably, we anticipate a return to more normal economic activity by the end of the year. For the present year, our expectation is that Irish GDP will grow by 12.6 per cent. The double-digit growth rate is mainly due to multinational related activities, in particular strong export figures. Modified domestic demand, a more accurate measure of underlying economic activity, is expected to grow by 7 per cent in the present year. Into 2022, we expect a continued strong performance of the economy, with GDP set to increase by 7 per cent.
The recovery from COVID-19 has contributed to inflationary pressures in many advanced economies stemming mainly from global supply chain problems and energy prices. While the current expectation is that these factors are largely temporary, further domestic inflationary risks remain relating to the rapidity of the recovery in household spending as well as how price changes feed into wage expectations. At this juncture, our expectation is that inflationary pressures will peak in Q4 2021 and abate through 2022. We expect an inflation rate of 2.3 per cent in 2021 and 2.5 per cent in 2022.
The monthly unemployment rate continues to fall as public health restrictions are eased. Consequently, we expect the unemployment rate to fall to 9 per cent in Q4 2021 and average 16.3 for 2021 overall. Unemployment is set to fall further into 2022 and will average just over 7 per cent for the year. However, we do not expect to see the unemployment rate fall back to pre-COVID rates until late 2023 at the earliest.
The significant reduction in unemployment along with strong underlying growth in taxation receipts has contributed to a smaller deficit in 2021 than expected. The eased pressure on the public finances comes at a time when significant investments will have to be made in the years ahead to tackle issues such as housing, climate change, and healthcare. Making these investments, while ensuring the domestic economy does not overheat, will be a key challenge for fiscal policy over the medium-term.
The publication can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-autumn-2021
The press release accompanying the report can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/news/strong-exports-and-multinationals-contributing-to-double-digit-gdp-growth-however-challenges
For more from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), visit our website: www.esri.ie
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter, Edinburgh for the Economic Forum on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
Abdoulaye Seck
POLICY SEMINAR
Making the most of intra-African trade: the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor
Co-Organized by IFPRI and AKADEMIYA2063
SEP 23, 2021 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies On Food Service Indus...SlideTeam
Foodservice industry has been hit hardest as government closes restaurants and bars in order to slow down the coronavirus spread. This presentation will help an organization in addressing a collection of COVID 19 outbreak impact assessment and mitigation strategies reported in food service industry. Following presentation compromises mainly four sections namely food service industry overview, risk assessment and its impact, how risks are mitigated and risk maturity model survey questionnaire. At first, food service industry overview section will help the organization in highlighting coronavirus pandemic impact on global food industry, average change in sales of top two hundred food chain businesses, impact on food service spending behavior and sales originated from third-party delivery partners. Risk assessment and its impact section will cover five major risk caused by coronavirus in food service industry namely disruption due to social distancing, plummeting employee productivity, stressed supply chain, recession, unemployment and investment pullout, economic instability and civic unrest. How risks are mitigated section will help the firm in addressing the measures taken by food service industry to tackle coronavirus outbreak. Sub headings covered in the section are business impact analysis, risk readiness assessment, risk management plans, business continuity plans, policy management and incident management. At last, risk maturity model survey questionnaire section will help the organisation to address survey results of questionnaires asked from customers who usually go out for dinning at restaurants. https://bit.ly/2OnYvio
The results of our latest Deloitte Consumer Tracker show signs of distress as consumer confidence continues to fall for the third quarter in a row. In particular, consumer confidence in disposable income and level of debt fell by seven and four percentage points respectively this quarter to reach their lowest level in over three years.
Roman Romashkin
POLICY SEMINAR
Virtual Event - Food Policy Research and Capacity Development in Eurasia
Co-Organized by the Eurasian Center for Food Security (ECFS), World Bank Group, and IFPRI
DEC 2, 2020 - 07:30 AM TO 09:00 AM EST
Karl Pauw1, Bernard Tembo2 & James Thurlow1
1. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
2. Zambia Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Last updated: 6 April 2021
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies In Oil And Gas Indust...SlideTeam
The pandemic outbreak has deep impacts on the oil and gas industry. Due to COVID 19, there is a significant decrease in demand across regions such as the US, UK, India, and other European countries. The virus has forced companies to slow or stop the physical operations, which impacted the production of the upstream sector. There is an oil price crash in major oil and gas companies. We have created this deck to cover the impact of coronavirus in the oil and gas industry along with the mitigation strategies. In this template, we have focused on an overview of the oil and gas sector wherein pandemic impact on global and US economy, effects of COVID 19 in leading oil consuming countries, US oil price hit, implications, global lubricants market have been focused. Risks have been assessed such as disruption due to social distancing, employee productivity, supply chain, recession, unemployment, investment pull back, economic instability, and civil unrest has been covered in this deck. Risks mitigation strategies are analyzed which focuses on business impact analysis, risk readiness assessments, risk management plans, business continuity plans, policy management, and incident management. The risk maturity model survey questionnaire along with the results are also covered in this template. https://bit.ly/30zIqZj
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a faster pace in January (+1.0%) year over year than in December (+0.7%). The acceleration in consumer prices was largely due to higher prices for durable goods (+1.7%) and rising gasoline prices (+6.1%) compared with December 2020. Excluding gasoline, the CPI grew 1.3% in January—up from a 1.0% increase in December.
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210217/dq210217a-eng.htm
Food
COVID19 and Food Prices - https://www.brockpress.com/covid-19-to-cause-increase-in-national-food-prices/
https://www.greenhousecanada.com/funding-call-for-local-food-projects-33051/ - The problem with greenhouses relates to CO2 - https://ggs-greenhouse.com/heating-systems/carbon-dioxide-co2-dosing
Average house price in Canada is now $621K - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canadian-housing-markets-set-records-again-in-january-820519482.html
Emerging Paradigm for India's Manufacturing Sector Sudeeksha Gupta
A presentation based on our research paper " Emerging Paradigm for India's Manufacturing Sector". It assesses the general potential impact of the shock on various segments of the economy with specific details of impact on the manufacturing sector, the factors stimulating it and analyse the policies that have been announced so far by the central government to ameliorate the economic shock and put forward a set of key recommendations for businesses and Indian economy.
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 CrisisEdouardLotz
La crise sanitaire, économique et énergétique provoquée par le coronavirus a bouleversé les grands équilibres mondiaux. Dans le domaine de l'énergie, l'effondrement de la demande, provoquée par les mesures de confinement, a entraîné le prix des matières premières à des niveaux historiquement bas, mettant en péril l'industrie de ce secteur.
Ce rapport (en anglais) vise à détailler comment le coronavirus a affecté l'économie mondiale et les marchés énergétiques, avec un focus sur le marché pétrolier, particulièrement touché par cette crise.
Les perspectives d'avenir pour la consommation, la production et les prix des différentes matières premières (pétrole, gaz naturel, charbon et électricité) sont analysées au sein de cette publication, afin de donner une idée globale du futur secteur énergétique.
Une dernière partie, rédigée par Ronan Fleckstein, est consacrée aux effets de cette crise sur l'économie, le secteur hospitaliers et la chute des revenus pétroliers des Etats africains.
Ce rapport est également disponible sur le site américain Energy Central : https://energycentral.com/c/og/global-oil-market-and-covid-19-crisis-impact-and-forecast
N'hésitez pas à partager, télécharger ou commenter cette publication.
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies In Airlines Industry ...SlideTeam
Major sectors affected by COVID 19 outbreak at global level are tourism and travel, retail and airlines. Following presentation will allow a firm to address a collection of COVID 19 outbreak impact assessment and mitigation strategies reported in airlines industry. This presentation consists mainly five sections namely airlines industry overview, airlines financial analysis, risk assessment and its impact, how risks are mitigated and risk maturity model survey questionnaire. Firstly, airlines industry overview section will help the organization in addressing coronavirus impact on aviation tourism trade and global economy, impact on passenger traffic and revenues, impact on average trip length and impact on global as well as domestic RPKs. Airlines financial analysis section will help the organisation in addressing financial impact of COVID 19 outbreak on airlines industry. Risk assessment and its impact section will cover five major risk caused by coronavirus in airlines industry namely disruption due to social distancing, plummeting employee productivity, stressed supply chain, recession, unemployment and amp; investment pullout, economic instability and amp; civic unrest. How risks are mitigated section will help the firm in addressing measure taken by airlines industry to tackle COVID 19 outbreak. Sub headings covered in the section are business impact analysis, risk readiness assessment, risk management plans, business continuity plans, policy management and incident management. Finally, risk maturity model survey questionnaire section will help the organisation to address survey results of questionnaires asked from frequent flyers. https://bit.ly/37F8iHL
Manufacturing & Distribution Update: The Economic Impact on the IndustryCitrin Cooperman
This presentation focused on what the future is likely to bring to manufacturers and distributors as the nation attempts to claw its way back from the worst of the COVID-19 crisis.
Associate Research Professor, Conor O'Toole and Research Professor, Kieran McQuinn presented an overview of the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2021 to the media on Wednesday, 24 March 2021 ahead of the document's publication on Thursday, 25 March 2020.
The publication can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-spring-2021
A video of the presentation can be watched here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKqt2fUgDq0
Associate Research Professor, Conor O'Toole and Research Professor, Kieran McQuinn presented an overview of the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2021 to the media on Wednesday, 6 October 2021 ahead of the document's publication on Thursday, 7 October 2021.
Despite the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, both domestic and foreign sources of growth have contributed to the Irish economy’s robust performance in 2021. As public health measures are eased considerably, we anticipate a return to more normal economic activity by the end of the year. For the present year, our expectation is that Irish GDP will grow by 12.6 per cent. The double-digit growth rate is mainly due to multinational related activities, in particular strong export figures. Modified domestic demand, a more accurate measure of underlying economic activity, is expected to grow by 7 per cent in the present year. Into 2022, we expect a continued strong performance of the economy, with GDP set to increase by 7 per cent.
The recovery from COVID-19 has contributed to inflationary pressures in many advanced economies stemming mainly from global supply chain problems and energy prices. While the current expectation is that these factors are largely temporary, further domestic inflationary risks remain relating to the rapidity of the recovery in household spending as well as how price changes feed into wage expectations. At this juncture, our expectation is that inflationary pressures will peak in Q4 2021 and abate through 2022. We expect an inflation rate of 2.3 per cent in 2021 and 2.5 per cent in 2022.
The monthly unemployment rate continues to fall as public health restrictions are eased. Consequently, we expect the unemployment rate to fall to 9 per cent in Q4 2021 and average 16.3 for 2021 overall. Unemployment is set to fall further into 2022 and will average just over 7 per cent for the year. However, we do not expect to see the unemployment rate fall back to pre-COVID rates until late 2023 at the earliest.
The significant reduction in unemployment along with strong underlying growth in taxation receipts has contributed to a smaller deficit in 2021 than expected. The eased pressure on the public finances comes at a time when significant investments will have to be made in the years ahead to tackle issues such as housing, climate change, and healthcare. Making these investments, while ensuring the domestic economy does not overheat, will be a key challenge for fiscal policy over the medium-term.
The publication can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-autumn-2021
The press release accompanying the report can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/news/strong-exports-and-multinationals-contributing-to-double-digit-gdp-growth-however-challenges
For more from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), visit our website: www.esri.ie
Co-authors Dr Conor O'Toole and Prof Kieran McQuinn delivered a presentation on the ‘Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2023’.
Read key findings from the QEC:
https://www.esri.ie/news/underlying-domestic-growth-still-quite-strong-however-global-uncertainties-impacting-headline
📈Rising interest rates, slower-than-expected global trade and persistent inflation cloud the international outlook, but the domestic economy is growing robustly.
⬆️Modified Domestic Demand (MDD), the more accurate measure of domestic economic activity, is forecasted for growth of 3.6% this year and 4.0% in 2024
👷Labour and housing market capacity constraints may have implications for future growth.
Read the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2023 on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-summer-2023
On Monday 25 May, ESRI Research Assistant Cathal Coffey, led a webinar where he discussed the findings of the report 'The effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on consumption and indirect tax in Ireland'.
It was the third webinar in the Budget Perspectives 2021 series.
It was followed on by a short Q&A session, where co-authors Barra Roantree, Karina Doorley and Conor O'Toole took part.
A video of the webinar can be viewed on our Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/watchv=mq36TZ6ChvY&feature=em_title
To read the full report, visit our website here:
https://www.esri.ie/news/covid-19-pandemic-could-reduce-indirect-tax-revenues-by-more-than-a-fifth
On Thursday 7 May, ESRI Research Officer Paul Redmond, presented a webinar that discussed the findings of the report 'Minimum wage policy in Ireland'.
It was the second webinar in the Budget Perspectives 2021 series.
It was followed by a short Q&A session, with Paul and co-author of the report, Seamus McGuinness.
You can view a video of the webinar on our Youtube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/watchv=QLJ_KRDI8XE&t=788s
To view the full report, visit our website here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/minimum-wage-policy-in-ireland
These are the slides presented at the Economic Forum on 18 July 2022.
Showcasing the latest economic and social developments with a wide range of analytic topics. Each month we will feature "State of the Economy", providing a stocktake of the latest trends and developments.
Presentations this month include:
Subnational regional productivity in the UK
Homeworking in the UK - regional patterns: 2019 to 2022
Family spending in the UK
Transforming consumer prices statistics with new data and methods: rail fares and second-hand cars
Covid-19 Triadic Impact & The Way ForwardJeremy Riro
Covid-19 pandemic is a situation of bad lack meeting unpreparedness . A pandemic struck an over-leveraged and weak global economy; and led to the triadic impact on global health, economy and social dynamics within our societies.
LightCastle Partners’ annual flagship publication titled ‘The LightCastle Business Confidence Index 2019-20’ gauges the business sentiments of private sector leaders across several sectors, that have a notable contribution to the country’s economy. The industries to feature in this study were purposefully determined to include sectors that had the highest level of contribution to the country’s GDP.
Commencis Covid-19 Playbook for Financial Services Aslı Yerci Eren
Download link for full report: https://lnkd.in/gp6xqYg
The novel coronavirus, COVID-19 has turned into a global crisis, evolving at an unprecedented speed and scale. As governments take immediate actions to cope with the outbreak, businesses are rapidly adapting to the changing needs of people, consumers and suppliers while also trying to overcome the financial and operational challenges.
As the pandemic continues, more and more industries are feeling the strain. The financial industry is certainly one of them. Whilst, the current situation is challenging for the industry, we believe that if well-handled it can also bring opportunities for innovation and long-term customer loyalty. The crisis has already revealed us that, now, more than ever, the industry must invest in digital and key critical capabilities to thrive in a post-COVID-19 world.
COVID-19 Playbook for Financial Services includes the implications of COVID-19 on financial industry, and recommendations on how banks can enhance their capabilities to survive during these rough times.
Main topics covered in this playbook are as below:
1 The impact of COVID-19 - Global Overview
2 How Banks Should Face the Crisis: COVID-19 Playbook
3 How to Invest in Digital Capabilities: Digital Roadmap
Welcome to the monthly Economic and Public Policy Forum. Here we showcase the latest economic and social developments with a wide range of analytic topics. Each month we will feature ‘State of the Economy’, providing a stocktake of the latest trends and developments.
This presentation was delivered by Professor Martina Lawless during the ESRI's Building Stronger Business - Responding to Brexit conference on 6 July, 2018 in collaboration with the Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation and Enterprise Ireland.
On 7 November, Dr Brendan Walsh presented at the HSE's Evidence for Policy Conference on Modelling Healthcare Demand and Supply in New Residential Developments.
On Tuesday 14th November 2023, the ESRI launched 'Civic and political engagement among young adults in Ireland'.
This study looks at civic engagement (volunteering) and involvement in political activities among 20-year-olds, drawing on Growing Up in Ireland data.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/civic-and-political-engagement-among-young-adults-in-ireland
On 20th October 2023, Selina McCoy and Eammon Carroll presented on research about post-school transitions for students with SEN at the NABMSE conference.
Tax-benefit systems face challenges in achieving their objectives. One key challenge is to ensure people have adequate incomes without creating strong financial disincentives to work.
One element which may reduce work incentives are cliff edges. Cliff edges occur where benefit entitlements and other supports are withdrawn sharply (or entirely), or where tax and social insurance liabilities increase steeply as income rises. Research has found that people adjust their behaviour to keep their income below points such as these.
This paper examines where such cliff edges exist in the Irish tax-benefit system and outlines potential reforms. PRSI and USC both have cliff edges in their design as people under a certain income are exempt. Once this threshold is passed, however, all of a person’s income becomes liable for the charges. This results in a drop in disposable income once the threshold is passed. Removing the cliff edge is possible by introducing a 0% band with those above this level only paying USC/PRSI on the income above this band (as is the case in the income tax system). Reforming the current system is possible but would mean trade-offs if the government want such changes to be revenue neutral – either more low-income people would need to be brought into the USC/PRSI net or rates must increase.
Part-time and low-income workers are negatively impacted by current rules
The social welfare system mainly avoids cliff edges through the gradual withdrawal of benefits as incomes rise. However, two cliff edges exist. The 4-in-7 rule, whereby those working part-time can only receive a Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) payment if fully unemployed for 4 days out of 7, can disincentivise employment as it means that a person working part-time, but whose hours are spread out over the week, will have no JSA entitlement. A second cliff edge exists for lower-income workers – those working at least 38 hours a fortnight can receive the in-work support, the Working Family Payment, while those just under this cut-off cannot.
Read full report on the ESRI website:
https://www.esri.ie/news/eliminating-cliff-edges-in-the-tax-benefit-system-would-help-improve-work-incentives
Despite concern among the public and policymakers about housing and healthcare in Ireland, limited information exists on the relationship between these two critical issues. New research by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), presented at the annual Budget Perspectives conference on June 15th, highlights significant variations in health outcomes and medical card coverage across supported renter, private renter, and homeowner tenure groups in Ireland. The variations we report should not be interpreted as showing causation, but it is important to identify the patterns for a variety of reasons including healthcare delivery.
Supported renters
Findings show that individuals in the supported rental sector experience the poorest health outcomes. Half of all older adults (aged 65+) in supported rental housing report poor self-reported health, in contrast to one-third of older homeowners. A decline in medical card coverage among supported renters is found, with only 74% holding a medical card in 2021 compared to 87% in 2015. Less than half of employed supported renters possess a medical card, despite facing a high risk of poverty and having incomes that qualify them for public housing assistance.
Private renters
Private renters are found to have poorer health outcomes compared to homeowners across all age groups, in combination with lower rates of medical card coverage. A quarter of private renters with a chronic illness are at risk of poverty, yet the majority lack a medical card. Additionally, over a quarter of older private renters with a chronic illness do not hold a medical card. These findings, combined with previous research demonstrating the financial benefits of possessing a medical card in reducing the burden of healthcare, highlight the significant financial risk faced by vulnerable private renters in the event of a health shock.
Read full report on the ESRI website:
https://www.esri.ie/publications/housing-tenure-health-and-public-healthcare-coverage-in-ireland
The cost of childcare by childminders may decrease by an average of €100 per month if care provided by childminders becomes eligible for the National Childcare Scheme. Such is the finding of new research by the ESRI, presented at the annual Budget Perspectives conference on 15th June.
Prior to the introduction of the National Childcare Scheme (NCS), parents in Ireland faced some of the highest childcare costs among OECD countries. The NCS provides subsidies for users of Tusla-registered childcare. Childminder care, which is typically unregistered, is however, the second most widely used form of paid childcare in Ireland and is not currently subsidised. The National Action Plan for Childminders has committed to the extension of NCS subsidies to childminders who care for non-relative children in the childminder’s own home. The extension is expected to happen on a phased basis over a three-year period from 2024.
This research shows that extending the NCS to children cared for by childminders will cost €35-122 million per annum, depending on how well the scheme is taken up. If all current non-relative childminders register with Tusla and all eligible parents claim NCS subsidies, the reform will benefit 80,000 children by an average of around €100 per month. Children cared for by a childminder tend to live in households with relatively high disposable income and high levels of parental employment, compared to children in centre-based care. The reform will therefore benefit middle-income households more than low- or high-income households.
Subsidising the cost of childminder care is likely to have other knock-on consequences. First, it may reduce the demand for formal (centre-based) care which could alleviate some of the current shortages of this form of childcare. Second, it may increase mothers’ labour supply by reducing barriers to work. Third, wider and positive societal impacts are likely if regulation of the childminder sector improves quality of care and health and safety. However, much depends on the administrative or financial requirements placed on childminders by the increased regulation.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/extending-the-national-childcare-scheme-to-childminders-cost-and-distributional-effect
This report examines newly available data for 2021 on Northern Ireland’s goods exports and imports and equivalent data for Ireland on a detailed product and market level. This allows, for the first time, the trade structures of both economies to be investigated on a consistent basis, giving new insight into both overall international trade patterns for each economy and how cross-border trade looks within this broader context.
Read on the ESRI website:
https://www.esri.ie/publications/structure-of-international-goods-trade-for-ireland-and-northern-ireland
The ESRI, in collaboration with Pobal, have launched a report examining the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on people living in disadvantaged areas in Ireland, as defined by the Pobal Haase Pratschke Deprivation Index. The report, titled ‘Pandemic Unemployment and Social Disadvantage in Ireland’, shows that people living in deprived areas, when compared to those living in more affluent areas, experienced greater disruption to their employment.
The Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) was a social welfare payment for employees and self-employed people who lost all their employment due to the COVID-19 public health emergency and the resulting economic impact of lockdowns and restrictions. The payment was designed as income replacement to mitigate the short-term impact on financial wellbeing that pandemic-related job interruption would cause. This research examines the economic repercussions of the pandemic and the extent to which the proportion and duration of Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) are related to area-level deprivation.
Read more key findings: https://www.esri.ie/news/people-in-disadvantaged-areas-experienced-greater-employment-disruption-during-the-covid-19
Read the report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/pandemic-unemployment-and-social-disadvantage-in-ireland
Individuals who experienced childhood poverty are much more likely to experience income poverty and material deprivation in adulthood. A new study funded by Pobal and carried out by the ESRI finds that in 2019, the likelihood of deprivation in adulthood was 35 percentage points higher among individuals who grew up in poverty when compared to individuals who grew up in ‘very good’ financial circumstances.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/intergenerational-poverty-in-ireland
Read the press release: https://www.esri.ie/news/childhood-poverty-associated-with-higher-risk-of-material-deprivation-and-income-poverty-in
This report, conducted as part of a research programme with the Pensions Council, explores indicative future paths for homeownership rates in Ireland and explores the impact in terms of income poverty in retirement.
Using data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) and the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), we consider a number of scenarios to assess the possibility of renting households becoming homeowners, and then test the impact on income poverty rates if households were to continue to have rental costs into retirement.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/future-trends-in-housing-tenure-and-the-adequacy-of-retirement-income
The relationship between health and employment status continually shows that individuals who work have lower levels of illness and higher self-reported health. This study examines how self-reported health and objective measures of health (multimorbidity and mental health problems) differ across employment status and occupations among adults of working age (25-65 years). In addition, the study examines how public health coverage – medical card and GP visit card (GPVC) – and private health coverage (PHI), and lack thereof, differ across occupations. Overall, individuals not in employment have much lower rates of self-reported health and higher rates of illness. In particular, mental health problems are three times higher among unemployed individuals across all age groups. Examining workers separately, differences in health status across occupations are small. However, rates of health coverage differ considerably across occupations. In general, occupations associated with poorer health status tend to have the highest percentages of workers without a medical card/GPVC or PHI. This affects workers’ ability to access lower cost or free healthcare, including for the purpose of certified sick leave.
Read the full publication: https://www.esri.ie/publications/occupations-and-health
Ireland is an outlier among EU countries as it does not have a strong link between previous earnings and the level of payment provided to those who have recently lost their job or are on leave from work for the short- to medium-term for reasons of illness or maternity. This paper provides a historical background for earnings-related benefits in Ireland, outlines the rationale behind linking benefits with previous earnings and examines the potential impact of (re)instating them.
Existing research has shown that disability is costly and can result in an increased risk of living in poverty and a decrease in living standards. In this paper, we expand a framework of equality budgeting, previously applied from a gender perspective, to the population of households affected by disability. Using a microsimulation model linked to data from the EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), we show how tax-benefit policy and other market income changes between 2007 and 2019 impacted households affected by disability and households not affected by disability. We find that disposable (or post-tax and transfer) income grew for both types of households but at a faster rate for households affected by disability than households not affected by disability. This income growth was driven by two counteracting forces. On the one hand, tax and welfare policy failed to keep pace with market income growth, reducing the living standards of households affected by disability by more than households not affected by disability. On the other hand, despite having lower average wage levels, wage growth for workers affected by disability outpaced wage growth for workers not affected by disability, while the labour supply of households affected by disability also increased. Future attempts to equality-proof budgetary policy should consider that changes to welfare disproportionally affect households with disabilities.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/the-impact-of-irish-budgetary-policy-by-disability-status
On Thursday, June 16th 2022, the ESRI launched the Community Foundation for Ireland/ESRI report Energy poverty and deprivation in Ireland, a topic once again to the forefront of the policy debate given recent increases in energy prices.
This report comprises two main sections. Firstly, it charts the nature of energy poverty in Ireland since the early 1990s, providing insight into the socioeconomic groups likely to experience either energy-related deprivation or high energy costs. Secondly, this report considers recent increases in energy prices to identify how this has affected the number of households experiencing energy poverty. The options policymakers may employ to counter energy poverty are considered.
Read the full report on our website:
https://www.esri.ie/publications/energy-poverty-and-deprivation-in-ireland
Read the accompanying press release on our website: https://www.esri.ie/news/energy-poverty-at-highest-recorded-rate
Subscribe to our Monthly Newsletter/Publication and Event notifications: https://www.esri.ie/sign-up-for-the-esri-newsletter
On Monday, June 20th 2022, the ESRI launched the report 'Disrupted transitions? Young adults and the COVID-19 pandemic'.
The report was conducted as part of a research programme with DCEDIY, draws on the Growing Up in Ireland COVID-19 survey to document the disruption to education, employment and day-to-day activities experienced by young adults during the pandemic and the consequences for their mental health. The report was launched by the Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth, Dr Roderic O'Gorman, TD.
The research shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in poorer mental health among young adults. Using data from the Growing Up in Ireland COVID-19 survey, carried out in December 2020, the findings show that four-in-ten 22-year-old men and over half (55 per cent) of 22-year-old women were classified as depressed. These were much higher figures than two years previously when 22 per cent of men and 31 per cent of women were depressed.
Poorer mental health during the pandemic reflected the disruption to young adults’ employment, education and day-to-day activities. Just before the pandemic hit, most (63 per cent) of these 22-year-olds were in full-time education or training and so shifted to remote learning. The vast majority had the electronic devices they needed for remote learning and live online lectures/classes were offered by their institutions. However, around half did not have access to adequate broadband and a quiet place to study, and less than one third (30 per cent) received regular feedback on their work. Over half (57 per cent) found it difficult to study while learning remotely and this was linked to a greater risk of depression. In contrast, those who had more interaction with their institution and the resources they needed to study fared better.
Over half (57 per cent) of those working (either full-time or while studying) when the pandemic hit lost their job. Only one-in-six (16 per cent) of the young adults started working remotely or increased the hours they worked from home. Having higher Leaving Certificate grades and being in a professional/managerial job at age 20 appeared to act as some protection against job loss when the pandemic began. Receiving the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) served to shelter these young adults from financial strain following employment loss. Losing a full-time job was linked to poorer mental health, especially for young men.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/disr...
Read the accompanying press release on our website: https://www.esri.ie/news/the-covid-19...
Subscribe to our Monthly Newsletter/Publication and Event notifications: https://www.esri.ie/sign-up-for-the-e...
On Tuesday 7 June 2022, the ESRI hosted an event titled 'Application of ethical principles for the design of Just Transition policies'.
Miguel Angel Tovar (ESRI) presented a presentation titled 'The cost of inaction'.
See more details on our website here: https://www.esri.ie/events/virtual-conference-application-of-ethical-principles-for-the-design-of-just-transition
This report is the first study to systematically compare the education systems in Ireland and Northern Ireland from primary to tertiary levels. It draws on international and national survey data, administrative data, interviews with policy stakeholders and input from a consultation with stakeholders to document commonalities and differences between the two systems. It is hoped that the study findings will provide insights for future policy learning in both jurisdictions.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/a-north-south-comparison-of-education-and-training-systems-lessons-for-policy
On 11 April, Prof Frances McGinnity presented the findings from our latest report titled 'Origin and integration: Housing and family among migrants in the 2016 Irish Census'.
Read the full publication: https://www.esri.ie/publications/origin-and-integration-housing-and-family-among-migrants-in-the-2016-irish-census
For many commentators, the litmus test of integration is how well the children of migrants are faring. This report investigates whether children born in Ireland to migrant parents differ from children with Irish-born parents in terms of their English language development at three, five and nine years of age, and their self-concept at nine years. It draws on rich data from the ’08 cohort of Growing up in Ireland which collects information on the children, their families, their schools, their skills and well-being in the first nine years of their lives.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/children-of-migrants-in-ireland-how-are-they-faring
Watch the video to accompany this presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmgzYXMxNhY
On 1 March 2022, Prof Selina McCoy's presented to the NAPD (National Association for Principals & Deputys) Symposium on the topic of Leaving Certificate reform.
More from Economic and Social Research Institute (20)
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
2. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Scenario Overview
• Given the current uncertainty we conduct a scenario analysis with three scenarios:
1. Baseline: New Normal
• Government Roadmap.
• ‘Recovery period’ through Q3 and Q4
2. Benign: “Pandemic Suppression”
• Effective suppression of disease through testing, tracing, targeted quarantine etc.
• Normal Economic Activity in Q4
3. Severe: “Second Wave”
• Second viral wave emerges
• Strict lockdown measures implemented in Q4
3. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Summary
2019 Baseline 2020 Severe 2020 Benign 2020
Output (Real Annual Growth %)
Private Consumer Expenditure 3 -13 -20 -12
Public Net Current Expenditure 6 11 15 11
Investment 94 -28 -39 -18
Exports 11 -8 -10 -7
Imports 36 -12 -13 -10
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 6 -12 -17 -9
Gross National Product (GNP) 3 -14 -19 -10
Labour Market
Employment Levels (ILO basis (‘000)) 2,322 2,026 1,976 2,081
Unemployment Levels (ILO basis (‘000)) 121 427 477 371
Unemployment Rate (as % of Labour Force) 5 17 19 15
Public Finances
General Government Balance (€bn) 1 -28
General Government Balance (% of GDP) 0 -9
4. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Consumption
Private Consumption
• Baseline: -13.3% Benign: -12.0% Severe: -19.7%
• Overall retail sales expenditure is down 13 per cent in March relative to January/February
• Dramatic fall in certain spending categories and moderate rise in others
• Expenditure in bars and on clothing is down over 50 per cent
• Expenditure on motor trade items and in department stores is down over 25 per cent.
• Expenditure on food and beverages is up by between 13 and 16 per cent for specialised and non-
specialised stores
• In order to estimate annual growth for 2020 we use Coffey et al. (2020)
• Utilise microdata from Household Budget Survey 2015/2016
• Map changes across the year using a combination of existing data, international literature and
judgement
• Decline in consumption will be dampened by extensive income supports introduced this year
5. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
CHANGE IN RETAIL SALES – MARCH AS A PERCENT OF JAN/FEB AVERAGE
-53%
-50%
-32%
-29%
-25%
-17%
-13%
-8%
0%
6%
9%
12% 13%
16%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Bars Textiles, clothing
and footwear
Motor trades (45) Books, newspapers
and stationery
Department stores Retail sale of
furniture and
lighting
All retail businesses Automotive fuel Other retail sales Electrical goods Pharmaceutical,
medical and
cosmetic articles
Hardware, paints
and glass
Non-specialised
stores with food,
beverages or
tobacco
predominating
Food, beverages
and tobacco in
specialised stores
Source: Central Statistics Office, Retail Sales Volumes Data, Seasonally Adjusted.
6. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
COUNTERFACTUAL CONSUMPTION FIGURES BY SCENARIO (% CHANGE FROM 2019)
New Normal Second Wave Pandemic Suppression
Food -1 -4 -2
Drink and Tobacco -18 -22 -14
Clothing and Footwear -25 -41 -25
Housing -2 -4 -2
Fuel and Light 0 0 0
Non-Durables 5 7 4
Durables -16 -38 -16
Transport -34 -48 -30
Miscellaneous -16 -22 -14
Total -13 -20 -12
Total (excluding housing and light) -17 -25 -15
Source: Coffey et al. 2020
7. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Box 1: The Effects of Government Policy on Personal Savings
2019 2020 %
Market Income 110.9 92.6 -16.5
Other Income 23.8 23.9 0.4
Taxes -45.6 -37.2 -18.5
Welfare Payments 27 32.2 19
Disposable income 116.1 111.5 -3.9
Adjustments 1.8 1.7 -5.6
Consumption 105.5 92.4 -12.4
Personal savings 12.2 22 79.7
Savings Rate 10.5 19.7
PERSONAL INCOME, CONSUMPTION AND SAVINGS, € BILLION
• Market Income will fall by nearly 17 per cent in 2020
• However, disposable income will fall by less than 4 per cent
• Consumption expected to fall by over 12 per cent
• Net result is a large increase in savings in 2020
• Personal Savings to increase by over €10 billion
• Savings rate of nearly 20 per cent
• Future disposition of this household saving could have a
significant impact on the nature of the economic recovery
• Increase in consumption in 2021 could act as a significant
stimulus to the economic recovery
• Continuing uncertainty in 2021 could postpone such a
consumer boom to 2022 or beyond
8. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Investment
Investment
• Baseline: -27.6% Benign: -18.4% Severe: -39%
• CSO Business Impact Survey shows 25 per cent of
businesses in Ireland have ceased trading
• Large increase in uncertainty coupled with a significant
decline in sentiment (Figure on the right)
• Supply chain disruptions likely to limit the ability of
companies to make capital expenditures
• Different components of investment likely to be impacted
in different ways by the current situation
• Historical data shows a strong contemporaneous
relationship between investment in Machinery and
Equipment and business sentiment
• This implies investment in Machinery and Equipment will
fall significantly in Q2
• Building and Construction may be less impacted by fall in
sentiment in the near term due to capital committed
• However, due to physical restrictions, building and
construction likely to be significantly curtailed
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDEX
Source: Economic Commission
9. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Trade
Exports
• Baseline: -8.2% Benign: -6.7% Severe: -9.7%
• Impact on trade may be spread out over a longer time period than on other components of
GDP
• Recovery of exports dependent on recovery of Ireland’s main trading partners
• Q1 Q-on-Q GDP growth: EU -3.5%, UK -2.0%, US -4.8%
Imports
• Baseline: -12.0% Benign: -9.9% Severe: -13.2%
• Related to decline in consumption and investment
• COSMO: 1 % decline in consumption in a year reduces imports by 0.6%
• Some sectors to be more impacted than others
• Machinery & Equipment and consumer durables likely to be significantly impacted
10. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Box 2: Export Scenarios Following The Coronavirus Outbreak
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
M1-3
Medical Devices Office Machinery Rest Pharma Manufacturing Export Growth
• Modelled based on NiGEM
• 20 per cent reduction in world demand for Irish
exports in the first two quarters of the year
• Global demand rebounds over second half of 2020
• Incorporate these impacts into COSMO
• Baseline Scenario: Reduced spending
internationally, increase in business uncertainty,
reduction in hours of work, temporary lockdown
of economies
• Benign scenario: Figure on the right shows export
growth has held up reasonably well. May indicate
that due to the composition of Irish exports,
exports may suffer less negative effects than other
countries
• Severe: longer-term strict lockdown with only
limited success in containing the spread of the
virus, thus dampening activity around the world
for a longer period and leading to permanent
losses
SECTORAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO IRISH MANUFACTURING EXPORT GROWTH (PERCENTAGE POINTS)
11. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Labour Market
Unemployment
• Baseline: -17.4% Benign: -15.2% Severe: -19.4%
• Covid-19 adjusted unemployment rate increased to over 28% in April
• This equates to nearly 700k people receiving unemployment benefits
• Sectors most impacted as per Beirne et al. (2020):
• Wholesale and retail trade
• Accommodation and food service activities
• Construction
• Live Register – April 2020
• 816k on Live Register or availing of Covid unemployment payment
• 1.2m on Live Register, availing of Covid unemployment payment or wage subsidy scheme
• Up 728k (142%) in comparison to March
• 400k increase in the number of people on the wage subsidy scheme compared to March
13. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Box 3: Job Loss Distribution
(1) (2) (3)
PUP claims at
10/5/2020
Aged 18-66 in
work, 2019q4
Col. 1/Col 2 (%)
Total 589,638 2,275,420 25.9%
Age:
18/19 26959 45908 58.7%
20-24 93,309 197,259 47.3%
25-34 135223 498211 27.1%
35-44 141,610 634,202 22.3%
45-54 111759 528128 21.2%
55-59 43,591 204,893 21.3%
60-66 37187 166820 22.3%
Sex:
Men 335,989 1,216,696 27.6%
Women 253649 1058723 24.0%
Region of residence (NUTS3):
Border 51,586 174,834 29.5%
West 55192 210292 26.2%
Mid-West 54,823 207,092 26.5%
South-East 52211 186379 28.0%
South-West 82,964 325,412 25.5%
Dublin 171874 706926 24.3%
Mid-East 85,828 335,452 25.6%
Midlands 33292 129034 25.8%
• Look at pandemic unemployment claims relative to
employment in Q4 2019
• Claims amongst younger workers represent a far greater
share than for other age categories
• Claims by men for the payment represent a higher share of
employment (27.6%) than for women (24.0%)
• Claims are highest in the Border region (29.5%) and lowest
in Dublin (24.3%)
• Live register figures from the CSO show that claims for non
pandemic related welfare payments of Jobseekers Benefit
and Jobseekers Allowance have risen by 13,333 and 19,293
respectively between February and April
• An estimated 65,000 people above the age of 66 employed
in the final quarter of 2019. These workers are not entitled
to make a claim for the PUP, jobseekers allowance or – in
most cases – jobseekers benefit
14. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Public Finances - Baseline
• GGB (% of GDP) 2019: 0.4% GGB (% of GDP) 2020: -9.0%
Debt to GDP 2019: 58.6% Debt to GDP 2020: 65.6%
• Significant decline in revenue forecast in SPU (€14.9bn decrease relative to 2019)
• Taxes on production and imports (VAT, excise duty) -19.5%
• Current taxes on income, wealth (PAYE, corporation tax) -14.4%
• Social contributions (PRSI) -12.1%
• Significant increase in public expenditure forecast (€9.6bn increase relative to 2019)
• Social payments (Unemployment benefit) +13.5%
• Subsidies (Wage subsidy scheme) +120%
• Intermediate consumption (Health related expenses) + 18.8%
• SPU suggests 7.4 per cent deficit of €23bn
• We assume pandemic payments stop at end of June and unemployed move to standard
unemployment payments
• Revenue to decline by €18.1 billion, Expenditure to increase by €10.7bn
• Forecast a deficit of €27.5bn
15. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Box 4: How much are Government taxation receipts likely to fall due to the Covid-19
slow-down?
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
• Previous work by Deli et al. (2017) examined the
sensitivity of taxation revenue to underlying economic
activity
• A 10 per cent reduction in output levels results in total
taxation receipts declining by 11 per cent
• Use these parameters to nowcast the level of taxation
receipts for the present year, by using our
nowcast/forecast of economic activity for 2020
• Given our forecast that output is set to contract by
over 12 per cent in 2020, that would indicate that
taxation receipts will decline from €59.3 bn in 2019 to
just over €51 bn in 2020.
• In total, we expect that under our baseline scenario,
total taxation receipts will fall by 16 per cent in 2020.
EXCHEQUER RECEIPTS AS A % OF GDP
16. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
BOX 5: What are the short-run implications for the spreads on Irish bond yields of
the Covid-19 downturn?
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2016q1 2017q1 2018q1 2019q1 2020Q1
ACTUAL AND SIMULATED SPREADS (%) IRISH BOND YIELDS: 2016Q1 – 2020Q2
• Sovereign yields: financial market’s view of the sovereign’s
ability to meet repayment obligations on its debt
• Cronin, Dunne and McQuinn (2019) model yield spread on
government debt, households disposable income and
banking exposure
• Using this model forecast spreads in Q2 2020
• Impact of the shock is to cause the spread to increase back
up to 2018 levels
• Monetary policy actions by the ECB will be crucial in
offsetting these deteriorating conditions and keeping Irish
yields low
17. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Assessment
• Fiscal stimulus needed to kickstart the economy in the second half of the year/2021
• Environmental and sustainability projects
• Social and affordable housing
• No overheating in the domestic economy!
• Allen-Coghlan and McQuinn (2020) suggest housing supply could be significantly impacted due to Covid-19
• Supports for large enterprises/SMEs should aim at expanding grants / cash injections
• Clear and specific guidance from European institutions
• Concerning the fiscal strategies available to member state countries essential
• Proposed €500bn recovery fund a move in the right direction but more is needed
• Possibility of increase in mortgage arrears
• If income supports are tapered off and payment breaks expire
• Financial stability concerns could arise?