Meg Abdy presented Where next for the Northern Ireland legacy market as part of Will to Give's campaign during Philanthropy Fortnight in Northern Ireland, May 2017. Will to Give is an organisation set up to boost legacy giving in Northern Ireland, supported by a committed group of charities, from local to international. Looking at trends in the UK legacy market, with a focus on the local market in Northern Ireland specifically, this presentation tells us 'where next for legacies?'

1. Where next
for legacies?

2. Introducing Legacy Foresight

3. 19 Extra Large
£20m+
20 Large
£8-20m
44 Medium
<£8m
Cause area % covered
Health 61
Animal 80
Development 82
Conservation 73
Disability 69
Armed Forces 74
Children 84
‘Other’ 56
Our flagship programme

4. UK market trends

5. Total UK legacy giving
is worth £2.8bn,
coming from 121,000 bequests
Legacies represent
13% of voluntary income,
5% of total income

6. Market mirrors economy
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Average
annual growth
4.7
%
p.a.
Recession Boom Recession Recovery

7. House prices drive residuals
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
Average house price (2002:1 = 100) UK legacy income (£bn)

8. 1992 - 2012
Deaths
Legacies-0.9%
1.5%

9. Deaths now rising

10. 2012 - 2016
Deaths Legacies
2.4%
1.4%

11. Punching above its weight
Legacy marketing spend is
3%
of total fundraising spend
but legacy income is
38%
of voluntary income
Total fundraising
spend
Total voluntary
income
Legacy
income
Legacy
marketing
spend

12. Giving comes from key groups
% who have made a charitable will
9
12
14
29
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
All With degree Volunteers High value donors Childless 55+s

13. Many legators ‘invisible’!
% of legacies by source
Prospects,
3%
Pledgers,
11%
Other known
supporters,
35%
Unknown to
the charity,
52%

14. Winners and losers

15. Samaritans
£3.0m
St John
Ambulance
£1.9m
Oxfam
£13.8m
Help for Heroes
£8.2m
Breast Cancer
Care
£0.5m
RSPCA
£64m
RNLI
£113m
Macmillan
£62m
CRUK
£169m
BHF
£61m
Top 5 = 25% of total income

16. David v Goliath
£1-8m >£20m
2.3%
8.1%

17. Younger causes gain a toehold
3.4
4.1
1.7
0.9
9.5%
4.3%
2.8%2.5%
Victorian Early C20th Post War 1970+
Income £m
Growth p.a.

18. Legacy income by sector
Health, 39%
Animal, 14%
Conservation, 8%
Disability, 7%
Development,
6%
Armed Forces, 3%
Children, 3%
Other, 19%
2014/15, %

19. Leading and lagging sectors
Older People
Advancement
of religion
Domestic
poverty relief
Children
Heritage
Animal
welfare
Overseas
development
Disability
Hospices
Environment
Medical
conditions
Arts
Armed forces
NHS Trusts
Emergency
services
Education
Slow Fast

20. Ten fastest legacy leaders

21. What makes you special?

22. South East, 28
South West, 12
East, 11
North
West, 8
Greater
London,
8
Scotland, 7
East Midlands, 7
West Midlands,
6
Yorkshire &
Humberside, 6
Wales, 4
North East, 2Northern
Ireland, 1
NI = 1% of UK income

23. Probate and will-making low
% of deaths
52
42 42
44
37
34
7
4 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
England & Wales Scotland Northern Ireland
Probated estates With will attached Including charitable gift
15% of wills
include a gift
10% of wills
include a gift
10% of wills
include a gift

24. 74% don’t have a will…yet
19
25
21 21
26
25
24
20
20
19
18
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland
When I make a will, I'll consider a gift to charity
When I make a will, I don't plan to leave a gift to charity
I don’t have a will, and don’t think I will

25. Uptick in intestacy last year
% NI probate applications without a will attached
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

26. Cash gifts far more common
% of gifts by type
46
28
51
60
2
12
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Great Britain Northern Ireland
Residuary Pecuniary Other

27. Religious causes still dominate
Legacy notifications by cause area, %, 2016
Religion, 45.3
Health, 24.7
Other, 13.8
Development,
6.9
Animals, 5.3
Children, 3.5 Conservation,
0.5

28. … especially compared to GB!
% of bequests by sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Animal Health Religious
Organisations
Other
England & Wales Scotland NI

29. 44% ‘open’ to leaving a gift
6
9
7
5
9
7
13
6
20 19
18
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland
When I make a will, I'll consider a gift to charity
I have a will, may leave a gift to charity when I revise it
I have a charitable will

30. House prices slowly recovering
Average house price (£)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland

31. Market outlook

32. A nation divided

33. NI the most anxious
Confidence in your future, by region , % less confident
0
10
20
30
40
50
60

34. … worried for next generation
Expectations for future generations, by region , % worse off
0
10
20
30
40
50
60

35. A hard Brexit ahead

36. Weak economic outlook

37. … and political uncertainties

38. Deaths up 20%, next 20 years
Northern Irish deaths, 1981 – 2035, 000s
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
1981-82
1983-84
1985-86
1987-88
1989-90
1991-92
1993-94
1995-96
1997-98
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
2015-16
2017-18
2019-20
2021-22
2023-24
2025-26
2027-28
2029-30
2031-32
2033-34
2035-36

39. Deaths driven by boomers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pre-1930 War Babies Boomers Generation X Generation Y

40. Boomers more open to idea
11
17
18
22
19
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
50-69 70+
Have charitable will May add gift later May make charitable will later

41. Concerns for next generation
25
19 20 19
26 27
32
-41 -42
-40
-42 -41
-46
-40
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
All 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Better off Worse off

42. Boomers expect …
Tangibility
Transparency
Control
“ I want to picture the difference my
money will make.”
“ I want to know that my money’s being
used well, not getting lost in the
system”
“ I want to my wishes to be taken into
account, even when I’m not around”

43. Good growth despite Brexit
0
1
2
3
4
5
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Forecast - February 2016 Forecast - August 2016

44. Think opportunities!

45. Think communications

46. Think boomers

47. Think local

48. Think will-making

49. Think collaboration

50. Thanks for listening
Meg Abdy
m.abdy@legacyforesight.co.uk
www.legacyforesight.co.uk
@talkinglegacies

51. LegacyForesight
Legacy Foresight are Europe’s foremost analysts of the
legacy and in-memory giving sectors.
We appraise the state of the markets, produce income
forecasts and research into donor motivations.
With over twenty years experience, we work with over one
hundred leading charities across Europe.
Authoritative Benchmarking
Trusted Forecasts
Stimulating Research
Illuminating Consultancy

52. Legacy
Foresight
Ashingate
East Chiltington
East Sussex
BN7 3AU
020 3286 5275
How are we performing?
Legacy Monitor is our flagship benchmarking service, in operation since 1998. By drawing directly
on our clients’ databases, we present the very latest intelligence on legacy incomes, notifications
and values. Each client receives tailored reports, comparing their performance against their peers -
whether by cause area, age or size.
What’s in the pipeline?
Our forecasting team can project the number and value of gifts you receive over the next five years.
Alongside our central forecasts, we provide optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, to help with
financial planning and risk management. These are backed up by clear commentaries, aimed at
busy managers and trustees.
What’s on the horizon?
Our scenario-building service provides an objective view of your future direction and potential.
Drawing on our strategic planning skills and sector knowledge, we overlay your organisation's
positioning, performance and plans with deep-rooted market trends, to create a spectrum of
future possibilities.
What do our donors think?
We manage bespoke research projects to explore emerging issues. Some projects are
commissioned by specific charities, while others are funded by groups of clients, who share their
experience, insights and data. This collaborative approach not only cuts costs; it can also save time
and create opportunities for joint campaigning.
www.legacyforesight.co.uk
@talkinglegacies
@talkinginmemory