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STRONGER
together
Strategies
for success
2015 Partner Conference
Market Insights
Ralph Acampora, CMT
Altaira Wealth Management
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
10-Year Bond Yields—Remain in a
firm downtrend; making a series of
lower low and lower highs; would
require a close above 3.5% to
reverse the secular downtrend.
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together4
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
'58 '63 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13
Interest Rates and Inflation
Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core CPI inflation for that month except for March 2015,
where real yields are calculated by subtracting out February 2015 year-over-year core inflation. All returns above reflect annualized total returns,
which include reinvestment of dividends. Corporate bond returns are based on a composite index of investment grade bond performance.
Data are as of March 31, 2015.
30
Nominal and Real 10-year Treasury Yields
Mar. 31, 2015:
0.25%
Sep. 30, 1981:
15.84%
Mar. 31, 2015:
1.94%
Nominal 10-year
Treasury Yield
Real 10-year
Treasury Yield
Average
(1958 – 2015 YTD) 3/31/15
Nominal Yields 6.24% 1.94%
Real Yields 2.48% 0.25%
Inflation 3.79% 1.69%
Rising Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500
1958-1981 3.0% 8.6%
Ann. Inflation 5.0% 5.0%
Ann. Real Return -2.0% 3.5%
Falling Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500
1982-2014 9.6% 11.7%
Ann. Inflation 3.0% 3.0%
Ann. Real Return 6.6% 8.6%
FixedIncome Interest Rates
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
U.S. Inflation (Annual CPI)
SPX Index—Remains in a secular
uptrend after breaking topside a
13-year bear market.
DJIA vs DJTA—Negative
divergence—Industrials trending
higher while Transports have
reversed an uptrend.
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
U.S. Unemployment Trends
XLK—Pullback towards an
uptrend support line underway;
remains in a major uptrend.
XLU—Major trend has turned
lower after the recent uptrend
violation; next support at $40.
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
What does a secular bull really
look like?
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
Thank you

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Market Insights

  • 1. STRONGER together Strategies for success 2015 Partner Conference Market Insights Ralph Acampora, CMT Altaira Wealth Management
  • 3. 10-Year Bond Yields—Remain in a firm downtrend; making a series of lower low and lower highs; would require a close above 3.5% to reverse the secular downtrend.
  • 4. 2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together4 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% '58 '63 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13 Interest Rates and Inflation Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core CPI inflation for that month except for March 2015, where real yields are calculated by subtracting out February 2015 year-over-year core inflation. All returns above reflect annualized total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Corporate bond returns are based on a composite index of investment grade bond performance. Data are as of March 31, 2015. 30 Nominal and Real 10-year Treasury Yields Mar. 31, 2015: 0.25% Sep. 30, 1981: 15.84% Mar. 31, 2015: 1.94% Nominal 10-year Treasury Yield Real 10-year Treasury Yield Average (1958 – 2015 YTD) 3/31/15 Nominal Yields 6.24% 1.94% Real Yields 2.48% 0.25% Inflation 3.79% 1.69% Rising Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500 1958-1981 3.0% 8.6% Ann. Inflation 5.0% 5.0% Ann. Real Return -2.0% 3.5% Falling Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500 1982-2014 9.6% 11.7% Ann. Inflation 3.0% 3.0% Ann. Real Return 6.6% 8.6% FixedIncome Interest Rates
  • 5. 2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together U.S. Inflation (Annual CPI)
  • 6. SPX Index—Remains in a secular uptrend after breaking topside a 13-year bear market.
  • 7. DJIA vs DJTA—Negative divergence—Industrials trending higher while Transports have reversed an uptrend.
  • 8. 2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together U.S. Unemployment Trends
  • 9. XLK—Pullback towards an uptrend support line underway; remains in a major uptrend.
  • 10. XLU—Major trend has turned lower after the recent uptrend violation; next support at $40.
  • 11. 2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together What does a secular bull really look like?
  • 13. 2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together Thank you