This document summarizes a presentation on Boko Haram and the risk of mass atrocities in northeast Nigeria. It defines mass atrocities and discusses how terrorism relates to mass fatality attacks. An overview of Boko Haram outlines its history under different leaders and increasing violence. Risk factors for mass atrocities in northeast Nigeria are assessed, including armed conflict, human rights violations, state weakness, and others. While Boko Haram remains a risk, the presentation notes that other state and non-state actors could also perpetrate mass atrocities.

1. A DHS S&TOUP Center for Excellence
Boko Haram:
Mass Atrocities in a Context of Terrorism
Amy Pate, Ph.D.
Professional Training Program on the
Prevention of Mass Atrocities
June 16, 2015
This research was supported by a Centers of Excellence Supplemental award from the Office of University Programs of the Department of
Homeland Security with funding provided by the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) office of the Department of Defense. The author’s
travel to the field was supported by the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The
views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the
official policies, either expressed or implied, of SMA, DoD, DNDO, DHS, or START.

2. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Presentation Outline
• Defining “Mass Atrocity”
• Mass Atrocities in a Context of Terrorism
• Overview of Boko Haram and Countering Boko
Haram
• Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities in
Northeast Nigeria
• Policy Options for Preventing Mass Atrocities

3. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Defining Mass Atrocity
• “…widespread and often systematic acts of
violence against civilians by state or non-state
armed groups, including killing, causing
serious bodily or mental harm, or deliberately
inflicting conditions of life that cause serious
bodily or mental harm” (US DoD JP 3-07.3)
• Genocide, crimes against humanity, war
crimes, ethnic cleansing (UN Framework for
Analysis of Atrocity Crimes)

4. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Mass Atrocity in the Context of Terrorism
1. What is the average number of fatalities per
terrorist attack?
a) Between 0 and 1
b) Between 1 and 5
c) Between 5 and 15
d) More than 15

5. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
2. What is the average number of fatalities per
named organization since 1970?
a) Less than 50
b) Between 50 and 100
c) Between 100 and 150
d) More than 150
Mass Atrocity in the Context of Terrorism

6. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Fatalities Per Attack over Time
Average Number of
Fatalities Per Attack: ~2.3

7. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Mass Fatality Attacks

8. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Fatalities by Group
Average number of fatalities
for a group between 1970
and 2014 is ~120

9. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
High Lethality Groups
• Taliban (14,248)
• Shining Path (11,585)
• Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (10,964)
• Boko Haram (10,795)
• Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (9,432)
• Farabundo Marti Naitonal Liberation Front (8,065)
• Nicaraguan Democratic Force (6,662)
• Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (5,602)
• Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (4,959)
• Al-Shabaab (4,186)

10. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Boko Haram: Under Yusuf
• Founded in 2002 by Muhammed Yusuf in
Maiduguri, Borno State
• Salafist in orientation
• Goal: Islamization of Nigeria
• Initial focus was on da’wa and creation of
micro-society exemplifying “pure” Islam
• Members recruited via charismatic nature of
Yusuf and financial incentives

11. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Boko Haram: Under Shekau
• Shift to jihad
• Dramatic increase in frequency and lethality of
attacks
• Recently, heavier reliance on conscription for
recruitment
• Declaration of caliphate, but little attempt at
governance
• Pledged allegiance to ISIS (and pledge
accepted)

12. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Boko Haram Violence
• Attacks skyrocketed in 2012
• Slight decline in 2013 (state of
emergency), but rebounded in
2014
• Average lethality of attacks is
relatively high
• In a dead-heat with ISIS for “most
lethal” organization in 2014

13. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Factors Contributing to
Emergence of Boko Haram
• North-South divide
 North economically and at times politically marginalized
• Pervasive corruption
 Political power primary means of economic empowerment
• Recurrent ethnic & sectarian conflict
• Eroded social trust
• Disillusionment with government
• Pool of potential recruits for extremism

14. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Countering Boko Haram: Actors
• Nigerian Police:
– Initial responders to Boko Haram
– Now, largely outside hot zone in northeast.
• Nigerian Military:
– Main responders in northeast
• Civilian Joint Task Forces:
– Vigilante groups in northeast
– Most active in Borno
• Chadian, Nigerien, and Cameroonian Militaries
– Active participation beginning in 2015
– Incursions/activities in Nigerian territory

15. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Assessing Risks for Mass Atrocities
The UN Framework for Analysis of Atrocity
Crimes provides eight “common” factors:
Risk Factor Description
1 Armed conflict and other forms of instability
2 Serious violations of human rights and humanitarian law
3 Weakness of state structures
4 Motives or incentives for use of violence
5 Capacity to commit atrocity crimes
6 Lack of mitigating factors
7 Enabling circumstances
8 Triggers

16. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Training Activity:
Assessing Risks for Northeast Nigeria
Group
Number
Assigned Risk Factors
1 Armed Conflict & Instability State Weakness
2 Human Rights Violations Motives
3 Capacity Mitigating Factors
4 Enabling Circumstances Triggers
5 Armed Conflict & Instability Human Rights Violations
6 Capacity Enabling Circumstances
7 State Weakness Motives
8 Mitigating Factors Triggers

17. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Reporting Out
Risk Factor Boko
Haram
Nigerian
Military
Nigerian
Police
Civilian Joint
Task Force
Other
Militaries
Armed conflict/ other
instability
Violations of human
rights/humanitarian
law
State weakness
Motives/incentives to
use violence
Capacity to commit
atrocity crimes
Absence of mitigating
factors
Enabling circumstances
or preparatory actions
Triggering factors

18. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Concluding Thoughts and Comments
• Boko Haram, despite setbacks in recent
months, continues to be a risk for perpetrating
mass atrocities
• However, Boko Haram is not the only actor
who may perpetrate mass atrocities

19. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Amy Pate
apate@start.umd.edu
www.start.umd.edu
Contact