The document discusses trends in the construction industry and building information modeling (BIM). It notes that the world's urban population has grown dramatically from 746 million in 1950 to over 4 billion currently, and is projected to reach 6.3 billion by 2050. This urbanization will require building accommodation for around 1.2 billion new urban dwellers over the next 15 years. The UK government has a strategy to implement BIM across the construction industry by 2016 in order to reduce costs, emissions, and time needed for projects while improving exports. National BIM reports show growing adoption of BIM in the UK, with over 80% of construction firms now using it.

1. David Bain
Research Manager, RIBA Enterprises
BIM and Trends in the
Construction Industry

2. Overview
• Where we are
• Challenges for the Industry
• BIM now and in the future
BIM and Trends in the Construction Industry

3. Where we are

4. Where we are
92.0
116.5
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
Q1Q2 Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3 Q4Q1
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Construction Output in Great Britain - 1997 to 2008
Source: ONS - Volume Seasonally Adjusted Index Numbers - 2011 = 100

5. Where we are
Construction Output in Great Britain - 2008 to 2016
Source: ONS - Volume Seasonally Adjusted Index Numbers - 2011 = 100
116.5
111.1
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

6. Where we are
Construction Output in Great Britain
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

7. Where we are
GDP and sectoral output - 2008 to 2016
Source ONS: GDP and main components
Total
Services
Production
Construction
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115

8. Where we are
Construction Output vs Architects' New Commissions
Source: Bank of England - ONS Construction Output and Mirza Nacey Construction Futures
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2010
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2011
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2012
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2013
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2014
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2015
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2016
Q1
Architects' New Commissions Construction Output

9. Question time

10. Q1. In the next twelve months, I expect my
organisation’s workload to:
1. Increase
2. Stay the same
3. Decrease
4. Don’t know
Voting question

11. Where we are
How do you expect your architectural workload
to change over the next three months?
Source: RIBA Future Trends Survey April 2016
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03-10
05-10
07-10
09-10
11-10
01-11
03-11
05-11
07-11
09-11
11-11
01-12
03-12
05-12
07-12
09-12
11-12
01-13
03-13
05-13
07-13
09-13
11-13
01-14
03-14
05-14
07-14
09-14
11-14
01-15
03-15
05-15
07-15
09-15
11-15
01-16
03-16

12. Where we are
Output balance and architects' outlook
Source: RIBA Future Trends Survey July 2015 & ONS
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
03-10
05-10
07-10
09-10
11-10
01-11
03-11
05-11
07-11
09-11
11-11
01-12
03-12
05-12
07-12
09-12
11-12
01-13
03-13
05-13
07-13
09-13
11-13
01-14
03-14
05-14
07-14
09-14
11-14
01-15
03-15
05-15
07-15
09-15
11-15
01-16
03-16
Balance Construction Output

13. Where we are
7.5%
3.4%
2.0%
2.9% 2.6%
£M 115,000
£M 120,000
£M 125,000
£M 130,000
£M 135,000
£M 140,000
£M 145,000
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% change Value (£M)
Experian Construction output Forecast
Source: Experian

14. Question time

15. Q2. In the past year, my organisation has worked on
projects…
1. In the UK
2. And/or in other parts of Europe
3. And/or in other parts of the world
4. Don’t know
Voting question

16. Where we are
Architectural Services Balance of Payments
Source: ONS
21 19 25 29 37
111
93
357
297
378 369
351
484
440
0 £m
100 £m
200 £m
300 £m
400 £m
500 £m
600 £m
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Imports Exports

17. Urbanization & Globalization

18. Urbanisation - 1970
Urbanisation - UN Projections
Source: ONS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0 B
1 B
2 B
3 B
4 B
5 B
6 B
7 B
8 B
9 B
10 B
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Total World Population Urban Population % Urban

19. Urbanisation - 1970

20. Urbanisation - 2014

21. Urbanisation - 2030

22. So, in the 15 years between 2015 and 2030
1.2 billion people will need urban accommodation.
This works out as:
500 people per building 2.2M buildings
250 people per building 4.4M buildings
100 people per building 11M buildings
10 people per building 110M buildings
5 people per building 220M buildings
Urbanisation - 2030

23. Urbanisation – the reality

24. Urbanisation – the reality

25. Urbanisation – the reality

26. Urbanisation – the reality

27. BIM and Trends in the Construction Industry
• The world’s urban population has grown from 746m in 1950 to 4bn in 2015
• It’s projected to grow by 2.5bn by 2050, to 6.3bn in 2050 with nearly 90% of
the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa
• India, China and Nigeria are expected to account for 37% of the projected
growth
• India alone is projected to add 404m urban dwellers, China 292m and Nigeria
212m
• As the world continues to urbanize, sustainable development challenges will
be concentrated in cities, particularly in the lower-middle-income countries
where the pace of urbanization is fastest
• Integrated policies are needed to improve the lives of both urban and rural
dwellers

28. BIM and Trends in the Construction Industry
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2011 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD Other China India
World energy consumption by region
(Quadrillion Btu)
Source: International Energy Agency

29. BIM and Trends in the Construction Industry
Source: International Energy Agency

30. BIM and Trends in the Construction Industry
Buildings globally account for:
• 40 % of Primary energy use (50 % if we include embedded energy in
manufacturing the materials used to construct them)
• 30-40 % of Final energy use (the energy delivered after loss in production
and distribution of energy)
• In EU, 36 % of GHG emission comes from buildings
Source: World Business Council of Sustainable Development 2009

31. Building Information Modelling

32. "This Government's four year
strategy for BIM implementation will
change the dynamics and behaviours
of the construction supply chain,
unlocking new, more efficient and
collaborative ways of working. This
whole sector adoption of BIM will put
us at the vanguard of a new digital
construction era and position the UK
to become the world leaders in BIM.“
Francis Maude
Minister for the Cabinet Office
UK Government strategy

33. UK Government strategy
Lower emissions
50%
Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
in the built environment.
Faster delivery
50%
Reduction in the overall time, from inception to
completion, for
new build and refurbished assets.
Lower costs
33%
Reduction in the initial cost of
construction and the whole life cost of
built assets.
Improvement in exports
50%
Reduction in the trade gap between total
Exports and total imports for construction
products and materials.

34. BIM and Trends in the Construction Industry
Strategy and
Brief
Design Construction
Hand over
and In-use

35. BIM and Trends in the Construction Industry
The scientific method "a method or procedure, consisting in systematic
observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing,
and modification of hypotheses.”
Hypothesis
Formulation
Experiment
Design
Experiment
Observation
and
Measurement
Hypothesis
modification
Strategy &
Brief
Design
Construction
Hand over
and in use
Learnings

36. BIM and Trends in the Construction Industry

37. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

38. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

39. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

40. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

41. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

42. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

43. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

44. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

45. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

46. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

47. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

48. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

49. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

50. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

51. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

52. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

53. NBS National BIM Report (2011-2016)

54. theNBS.com
David Bain
david.bain@ribaenterprises.com
Questions?