During this webcast, Tom Wimmer and Drew Nathanson wupdate their analyses on the RFID and Barcode markets and highlight the issues, forces and trends expected to be most influential to near- and longer-term market growth. Topics of discussion include: updated RFID and Barcode analyses; VDC expectations for 2011; and VDC’s AIDC Market Intelligence Planning Services.
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Barcode and RFID - Market Update & 2011 Outlook
1. AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
Tom Wimmer, Director
Drew Nathanson, Director
VDC Research Webcast
RFID & Barcode:
Market Update & 2011 Outlook
2. Frequently Asked Questions
These slides are from a webcast presented on 11/17/2010.
A full audio recording is available at:
http://vdcresearch.com/Landing/2011RFID_BARwebcast.aspx
1 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
3. VDC Research
Copy of webcast and complimentary insights and data on the
RFID & Barcode market available at:
http://vdcresearch.com/market_research/autoid/research_reports.aspx
2 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
4. Agenda
• Market Overview & Outlook
How did the markets perform?
What were the reasons behind the strong growth?
Which segments of the AIDC market experienced this growth?
Will growth in 2011 be at the same level as in 2010?
Which market segments will provide the strongest near-term growth opportunities?
• Barcode & RFID Convergence
Why are these solutions converging?
Where is this convergence happening?
• VDC’s 2011 Market Intelligence Planning Services
Extended vertical market and application coverage
Expanded coverage of software and service markets
Enhanced ability to support highly granular market intelligence requests
3 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
5. More Information, More Sharing … More AIDC
$0
$5
$10
$15
Global Demand for AIDC
Solutions by Technology
(Billions of Dollars)
• Barcode is the dominant track and trace technology on the
planet. It is used globally throughout most industries and
is the de facto standard for most companies, regardless
of Tier or location.
• RFID is an emerging successor in some applications, a
valuable complement in most. It is an emerging solution,
capable of extending the value proposition of barcode
by providing:
Additional functionality
More opportunities to capture information
Non-line of sight capabilities
• Although they could be perceived as direct competitors,
end users continue to require both solutions. The two
technologies, working together, are capable of supporting
existing requirements while providing the end user with
additional benefits such as:
Ability to support either technology/redundancy
Enhance/add functionality (i.e.: sensors, memory) with limited
invasiveness
Creates a migration path to a more advanced solutions
Barcode and RFID: Different data carriers supporting common requirements
4 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
6. Barcode Demand Truly Global – Including Emerging
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Global Demand for Barcode
Solutions by Region
2009: $9.7 Billion
• Growth will be bolstered by increased demand in
emerging country markets throughout APAC, Eastern
Europe, and Latin America as manufacturing
continues to shift. This shift will create a ripple effect
in the transportation sector as infrastructure is
deployed to support this migration.
• Suppliers recognize these shifts in regional demand
and are investing accordingly, establishing
relationships with Original Design Manufacturers and
distribution channel partners within these theaters of
operation.
• Leading suppliers are investing heavily in sales and
marketing activities within the APAC region as these
countries strive to compete in global markets.
Concentrations of these activities can be seen in
China, India and Malaysia.
A gradual shift in regional demand is forcing suppliers to re-think their geographic expansion strategies
5 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
7. Business Improvements Outweigh Compliance
$0
$3
$6
$9
Global Demand for Barcode
Solutions by Product Type
2009: $9.7 Billion
• Enterprises who initially invested in barcoding to
meet customer, industry and regulatory requirements
are increasingly using the technology to improve
their own processes and reduce operating expenses.
• This migration from compliance-centric applications
to core process applications is driving increased
investment consideration for all barcode products,
and imaging and mobile printing in particular.
• Why imaging?
Matrix codes are seen as a low cost alternative to RFID
for many track and trace applications.
ID cards marked with 2D symbologies are enabling new,
scalable applications, particularly in retail and government.
Emerging mandates and standards (i.e.: DoD’s UID
mandate) are driving demand for scanners capable of
reading 2D symbologies marked directly on products and
components.
Image capture at the point of manufacture allows detection
of imperfections and abnormalities, reducing reverse-
logistics costs.
• Why mobile printing?
Within the “four walls” enterprises are taking advantage of
their wireless infrastructure to print on-demand at the
point of application, reducing errors and saving time.
Off premise, enterprises are receiving the same benefits
from their mobile printer investments.
Mobility and imaging driving growth in emerging applications
6 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
8. Powerful Application Clusters Drive Growth
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
Global Demand for RFID
Solutions by Region
2009: $3.6 Billion
• Adoption within EMEA remains strong across a diversity of
applications; however, the region is expected to lag the
other regions:
Macroeconomic conditions creating unfavorable
capital investment environment.
Market maturity levels and lower concentrations
of early adopters in several emerging markets.
Application and corresponding product mix variations
in pricing and phase of adoption.
• Growth in the Americas region to be driven largely
by supply chain and inventory management applications
(i.e.: Retail, CPG, Government), as well as a burgeoning
asset tracking, smartcard and ticketing market.
• Much of the demand from the APAC region will continue to
arise from smartcard and ticketing; however, as RFID
moves further down the value chain, supply chain
applications and source tagging will provide significant
growth for the region as a result of the high level of
manufacturing.
Applications scaling, adoption continues to broaden
7 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
9. Increased Complexity to Boost Demand for Services
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
Global Demand for RFID
Solutions by Product Type
2009: $3.6 Billion
• Although significant price erosion is noted for all
technologies, the passive transponder market is
rapidly moving toward a consumables-based model –
recurring high volume demand with increased price
sensitivity and competition (and lower brand loyalty).
• Reader adoption remains strong for both stationary
and mobile devices as infrastructure continues to be
deployed to support new and scaling installations.
Growth of OEM modules continues to be linked to
integration with other devices and infrastructure.
• Demand for services to increase sharply as
established accounts expand and integrate solutions
and new account design and deploy infrastructure
• Software is becoming more critical to a successful
implementation as the hardware markets become
more commoditized and RFID integration deepens.
Not only is software critical to a company’s ability to
leverage the business intelligence gathered by the
system, its also a cornerstone component for the
addition of functionality and convergence.
Increased hardware commoditization; Software suppliers becoming gatekeepers
8 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
10. Facilitated & Broader Adoption
Understanding
Awareness
Facilitated & Broader Adoption
Innovators Early
Adopters
Early Majority Late Majority Laggards
Awareness
Understanding
Barcode, Meet Your New Partner RFID
Convergence driven by need to leverage both solutions for enhanced visibility, decision making and operations
CommittmentCommittment
Barcode2010
RFID2010
One solution is the
proverbial standard, the
other offers the same and
more, but in order to get the
‘more’, the two have to work
together as the same.
Technology Adoption Curve
9 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
11. Supporting A Diversity of Applications Across Markets
0
4
8
12
Industrial/Manufacturing Transportation/Logistics Retail Healthcare Commercial Services Government
Barcode & RFID Hardware Opportunity
(Aggregate Revenues from 2010-2014)
RFID BAR
Pricing differentials and new applications driving larger RFID contribution in many markets
10 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
(BillionsofDollars)
12. Convergence: Where RFID Meets the Bar
• As part of VDC’s 2010 RFID & Barcode Business
Planning Services, VDC surveyed end-user
communities on AIDC convergence of both
technologies. This survey was given to key
decision-makers, influencers and users in
enterprises currently using and converging
AIDC solutions.
• Regardless of the technology, every AIDC system
has common components:
Well-defined symbols or data carriers
Devices for reading/writing information
An interface between the read/write device and a host
• Gathering and sharing information within this
architecture is possible if there is a single platform
that ensures consistency, acting as a unifying
concept which makes certain that the information
being used is essentially the same.
• So, although technologies continue to be integrated
with each other, the real convergence is occurring
at the data level. Fundamentally, it’s the same data
for each solution – it’s just being carried differently.
Barcode and RFID convergence is happening from the Point of Manufacture through the Point of Sale
11 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
CONVERGING AIDC SOLUTIONS
AIDCSOLUTIONSCURRENTLYUSED
Barcode
RFID
NFC
Sensing
DAQ
MagStripe
M2M
OCR
Biometrics
Barcode 34% 1% 7% 0% 22% 22% 8% 5%
RFID 60% 5% 14% 1% 1% 17% 2% 1%
Near-Field
Communications
21% 11% 4% 0% 14% 46% 4% 0%
Sensing/monitoring 0% 63% 0% 27% 0% 7% 0% 3%
DAQ
Terminals/Modules
0% 5% 0% 59% 0% 27% 9% 0%
Magnetic Stripe 97% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
M2M 12% 28% 11% 15% 19% 0% 6% 9%
Optical Character
Recognition (OCR)
7% 13% 7% 0% 33% 0% 40% 0%
Biometrics 11% 28% 11% 33% 0% 0% 17% 0%
13. VDC’s 2011 Market Intelligence Planning Services
Barcode
We are now offering an entire track devoted to the barcode end-user. This track focuses on technical and commercial
customer requirements for barcode scanners, printers, and consumables for all regions, including how trends within these
requirements will impact deployment for these technologies.
We have also created an entire track dedicated to vertical market analyses. This track will provide an overview of market
definitions, estimates and forecasts, and end user requirements and preferences for major barcode vertical markets. It will
also focus on critical issues facing enterprises deploying barcode solutions – what current users have experienced, what
potential users are thinking, and how these perspectives are shaping demand for 2011 through 2015.
Availability of custom analyses, including segmentations of products by applications in verticals within economic sectors
within regions.
RFID
Instead of offering a roll-up, we are now offering an entire track on vertical and application analyses. These tracks will
provide:
• An overview of market definitions, segmentations, estimates and forecasts, and end user requirements and preferences for major RFID
vertical and application markets.
• An analysis of critical issues facing enterprises deploying RFID solutions – what current users have experienced, what potential users are
thinking, and how these perspectives are shaping demand for 2011 through 2015.
We are now offering a comprehensive analysis on the distribution channels for RFID products. This analysis will focus on
technical and commercial channel requirements for all RFID solutions under study, including how trends within these
requirements will impact distribution for these technologies.
Availability of custom analyses, including segmentations of products by applications in verticals by frequency within regions.
What’s new in 2011?
12 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
14. 2011 Deliverables & Schedules: Barcode
RESEARCH SCHEDULE & DELIVERABLES
TRACK I: Supply-Side Analyses
Volume 1: Handheld Scanners April 2011
Volume 2: Stationary Scanners April 2011
Volume 3: Barcode Printers April 2011
Volume 4: Barcode Printer Consumables May 2011
TRACK II: Demand-Side Analyses
Volume 1: Americas June 2011
Volume 2: EMEA June 2011
Volume 3: APAC June 2011
Volume 4: Global June 2011
TRACK III: Vertical Market Analyses
Volume 1: Industrial/Manufacturing August 2011
Volume 2: Transportation/Logistics August 2011
Volume 3: Government August 2011
Volume 4: Retail In-Store August 2011
Volume 5: Health Care Services August 2011
Volume 6: Commercial Services August 2011
TRACK IV: Distribution Channel Analysis
Volume 1: Global Distribution Channel Analysis September 2011
Vendor Profiles Delivered as part of the Supply-Side Analyses
Study Publication Date Historical Base Year Estimate Forecast Period
Service Year 2011 2010 2011 2012-2015
13 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
15. 2011 Deliverables & Schedules: RFID
RESEARCH SCHEDULE & DELIVERABLES
TRACK I: Technical Analyses
Volume 1: Transponders, ICs & Inlays April 2011
Volume 2: Readers & Interrogators May 2011
Volume 3: Printers/Encoders & Applicators May 2011
Volume 4: EPC UHF Solutions June 2011
Volume 5: Contactless Smartcard Solutions June 2011
TRACK II: Vertical Market Analyses
Volume 1: Retail July 2011
Volume 2: CPG July 2011
Volume 3: Transportation/Distribution July 2011
Volume 4: Pharmaceuticals August 2011
Volume 5: Health Care August 2011
Volume 6: Government August 2011
TRACK III: Application Analyses
Volume 1: Asset Tracking September 2011
Volume 2: Supply Chain Management September 2011
Volume 3: Security/Access Control September 2011
TRACK IV: Distribution Channel Analysis
Volume 1: Global Distribution Channel Analysis October 2011
Vendor Profiles Delivered as part of the Supply-Side Analyses
Study Publication Date Historical Base Year Estimate Forecast Period
Service Year 2011 2010 2011 2012-2015
14 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice
16. Q&A Session
Thank You for Attending this VDC Webinar
For more information about VDC Research coverage on the global markets for
Barcode & RFID Technologies please contact:
Tom Wimmer
Director, Auto ID & Transaction Automation Practice
twimmer@vdcresearch.com | 630.279.7959
Drew Nathanson
Director, Research Operations
andrewn@vdcresearch.com | 508.653.9000 x148
Janice Seidman
Account Director
jseidman@vdcresearch.com | 508.653.9000 x139
15 – 2010 VDC Research Group, Inc.
AutoID & Transaction Automation Practice