Tracking the Solutions Powering the Next Generation of Embedded Systems in Q4 & Beyond

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The embedded software and solutions market remains highly competitive as software and systems manufacturers continue to require new solutions that help them create, test and manage the designs necessary to power the next generation of embedded systems. During this webcast, Steve Balacco, Director of VDC Research’s Embedded Software & Tools practice will provide an update and 2011 outlook for embedded device & systems manufacturers and their embedded solutions providers. Specifically, the webcast will address: The state of the embedded software solution market, what the competitive landscape looks like, how multi-core requirements are impacting embedded software development, embedded engineering trends and what suppliers and solution providers should prepare for in 2011.

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Tracking the Solutions Powering the Next Generation of Embedded Systems in Q4 & Beyond

  1. 1. VDC RESEARCH WEBCASTS Embedded Software & Tools A Market Update & Outlook Embedded Software & Tools Practice Steve Balacco, Director
  2. 2. Frequently Asked Questions These slides are from a webcast presented on 11/10/2010. A full audio recording is available at: http://vdcresearch.com/Landing/2011webcast.aspx 1 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  3. 3. VDC Research Group Complimentary Insights and Marketing Data on the Embedded Software & Tools Market Available at: www.vdcresearch.com To receive the practice monthly bulletin and receive other practice news please opt-in at: www.vdcresearch.com/signup/ 2 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  4. 4. Today’s Speaker • Steve Balacco, Director – Embedded Software & Tools Practice  10 plus years experience covering the embedded software and tools market.  Managing a team focused on major aspects of the embedded software and tools market.  Involved in all syndicated research and proprietary engagements.  Prior to joining VDC, Steve worked for over 30 years in the information technology sector developing software, in sales and sales management, and business development.  Eastern Nazarene College, BSBA. 3 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  5. 5. Agenda About VDC & Our Research Market Definition & Segmentation Embedded Market Context Market Estimates & Forecasts Market Trends Future Market Outlook 2011 Service Year Overview Question & Answer 5 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  6. 6. VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice • VDC Research was founded in 1971.  Continuous, profitable operation since.  Staff of about 30 located in Boston and Chicago  Focus on a number of different technology areas including: Embedded Software & Tools, Embedded Hardware & Systems, Mobile & Wireless, Industrial Automation, AutoID & Transaction Automation, Power Management, a number of niche IT markets. • Over 15 Years covering the embedded software and tools market. • Driven by Extensive & Constant primary research.  Supply side – Operating system, software development tools, and multicore components and tools suppliers telephone interviews annually.  Demand side – OEMs & integrators web surveys and telephone interviews annually. • Syndicated & Custom engagements with clients in the embedded software and tools market. • Practice Team Members:  Steve Balacco, Director  Chris Rommel, Senior Analyst  Jared Weiner, Analyst • Practice Blog – On Target: Embedded Systems  http://blog.vdcresearch.com/embedded_sw/  Follow the practice on Twitter @VDC_EmbeddedSW 6 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  7. 7. Technologies Industry Segments Geographic Regions Embedded/Real-time Operating Systems Embedded Software Development Tools Mobile Operating Systems Multicore Components & Tools Telecom/Datacom ConsumerElectronics IndustrialAutomation Automotive Medical Military/Aerospace RetailAutomation Others Business/OfficeAutomation Mobilephones Scope of VDC’s Research Market Definition & Segmentation 7 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  8. 8. 2010 Embedded Software & Tools Service • Track 1: Embedded Software Engineering Market Technologies  4 Technology Volumes • Volume 1: Embedded/Real-time Operating Systems – published in May • Volume 2: Embedded Software Development Tools – published in May • Volume 3: Mobile Operating Systems – published in July • Volume 4: Multicore Components and Tools – published in October • Track 2: Embedded System Engineering Survey Data  6 Engineer Survey Data Volumes – all published in the August to early September timeframe • Volume 1: Operating Systems • Volume 2: Development Tools • Volume 3: Vertical Markets • Volume 4: Regional/Country • Volume 5: Processor Architectures • Volume 6: Engineer System Engineer Type • Track 3: Embedded Systems Market Statistics  8 Vertical Market Volumes – planned for publication in the November/December timeframe • Automotive/transportation, consumer electronics, industrial automation, medical devices, military/aerospace, mobile phones, retail automation, and telecom/datacom. Schedule status 8 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  9. 9. Embedded Market Context • > 10 Billion processors ship annually  98% Embedded • Created multi-billion dollar market for embedded software and tools • Total Market for Embedded Software Engineering is already ~$40 billion • By 2015, >10 Billion connected embedded devices Proliferation of embedded computing presenting opportunity to solution vendors Spend on Commercial Embedded Software Solutions Spend on Embedded Software Engineering Labor Development Tools 9 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  10. 10. Embedded Market Context Devices in transition Circa 1995 Today Hardware Platform – 8/16 Bit – Perhaps 32 Bit – Single processor – 8/16 Bit Still Used – 32/64 Bit Advanced Devices – Multiprocessor o Multicore emerging Communications Capability – Limited – Networked/Smart Software Platform – Operating System – Tools – Some Middleware – Operating System – IDEs – Extensive Middleware – Second OS – Multimedia Lines of Code – Thousands – Millions 10 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  11. 11. Embedded Market Context Number of Lines of Software Code (Mean of Respondents) 2010 Commercial/ 3rd Party 205,008 Open Source/3rd Party 870,192 In-house Developed 196,267 Sources of In-house Developed Code (Mean of Respondents) 2010 2009 Hand coded for current project 65.3% 65.8% Auto generated 5.9% 7.8% Leveraged from other/previous in-house projects 28.9% 26.5% Code bases growing and diversifying • The average embedded project now has over one million lines of software code.  More and more of this growth is being generated from 3rd party code.  Year-over-year decrease in % in-house code that is auto generated. • Anticipated software growth out pacing growth in human engineering resources. • Gradual shift away from standalone products as a critical step to addressing increasingly complex project requirements. Percent Increase (or Decrease) in the Total Lines of Software Code for the Next Project (Average of Respondents) Value Mean 33.5% Weighted (by number of lines of code) Annualized (by project length) Mean 23.6% Median 17.5% 11–  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  12. 12. Embedded Market Context • Software development now generates over 50% of development costs. • The vast majority of these costs, however, remain aligned with OEM labor spend. • Today <40% of FTEs on embedded projects are software engineers. • With a number of OEMs having reduced their internal development resources, this labor spend represents a substantial opportunity to market participants. Percentage of Total Development Cost Related to Software Development for Current Project (Mean of Respondents) Year Value 2010 50.7% 2008 49.6% 2002 33.5% Software now accounts for majority of development costs 11 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  13. 13. Embedded Market Context 4.7% 5.7% 6.1% 21.8% 23.9% 26.3% 32.2% 35.2% 42.4% 42.8% 46.0% 52.1% 54.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% Other IC/SoC design/verification Mechanical engineering Board level engineering/test Operating system development/test Prototype development System integration /test/verification Algorithm engineering Project management/planning Firmware development/test Requirements management /specification System architecture engineering Software application/middleware development/test Project Tasks in Which Respondents are Personally Involved on Primary Current Project (Percent of Respondents) 0.8% 1.8% 4.0% 4.7% 5.5% 5.5% 6.0% 9.2% 12.4% 14.7% 15.5% 19.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% Mechanical engineering IC/Soc design/verification Prototype development Board level engineering/test Algorithm engineering Operating system development/test System integration/test/verification Requirements management/specification System architect engineering Project management/planning Firmware development/test Software application/middleware development/test Percent of Time Spent on Various Engineering Tasks (Mean of Respondents) Note: Percentages sum to over 100% due to multiple responses. Project roles blurring – engineers forced to develop skill sets beyond primary discipline 12 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  14. 14. Embedded Market Context Engineers perception on the health on the state of the engineering job market Engineer Perception on the Health of the Current Engineering Job Market 2010 (Percent of Respondents, N = 366) 4.6% 13.4% 31.7% 35.5% 9.6% 5.2% 0% 20% 40% Much worse than last year Worse than last year About the same as last year Better than last year Much better than last year Don't know Engineer Perception on the Health of the Current Engineering Job Market 2009 (Percent of Respondents, N = 393) 14.5% 39.4% 21.6% 11.2% 5.9% 7.4% 0% 20% 40% Much worse than last year Worse than last year About the same as last year Better than last year Much better than last year Don't know 14 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  15. 15. Market Estimates & Forecasts Revised 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (MillionsofDollars) Embedded/RTOS / Mobile and Software Development Tools 2009 - 2012 CAGR: ~ 6% • VDC estimates the market for embedded/ real-time operating systems was slightly greater than $1.6 billion in 2009, a decrease of some 10% from 2008.  Slightly higher decrease than VDC had originally forecasted. • Major market drivers in 2009 negatively affecting the market include:  Recession and industry consolidation. • Future forecast and outlook  Market is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of >6% per year through 2012.  Device sophistication driving increasing software content and the need for more formal OSs. Embedded/real-time/mobile operating systems and software development tools 14 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  16. 16. Recession & Industry Consolidation • The global recession was the predominant issue affecting the embedded landscape in 2009 and into 2010. • Increased OEM focus on ROI for product investments and methodologies as project budgets decreased • Resulted in a negative financial impact to many software solution suppliers. • What consolidation? • As wholly owned subsidiaries of semiconductor suppliers, both Wind River and MontaVista messaging have focused around silicon neutrality. • VDC expects that the Intel acquisition of Wind River Systems and ensuing uncertainty contributed to the decrease in market growth and changes in the competitive landscape. • As a result, many competitors are looking to take advantage of this market consolidation to increase market share. Recession – predominant issue facing the market 15 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  17. 17. Market Trends 13.5% 11.6% 14.8% 27.7% 27.7% 17.0% 12.1% 12.9% 15.9% 23.5% 27.9% 30.0% 3.0% 9.6% 20.2% 20.5% 22.1% 40.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Commercially licensed/consortia/industry group obtained open source OS (e.g., OHA Android, LiMo, etc.) Chip/board vendor supplied (or obtained from tools vendor at no cost) OS In-house developed operating system Publically obtained open source OS (i.e. Debian Linux, etc) Commercially licensed operating system (not open source-based) No formal operating system Previous Project, N = 312 Current Project, N = 340 Next Project, N = 318 • OEMs have many choices in deciding what target operating system to integrate. • Device/system functionality is driving complexity and increased software content.  More sophisticated system interfaces  Complex graphical elements  Wired and wireless capabilities, and others • As a result, the types of operating systems used in target devices have continued to shift from no formal and in-house developed (RYO) to a variety of other commercial and open source offerings. • While the use of commercially licensed (not open source) operating systems is expected to remain fairly stable, almost 50% of the surveyed engineers report that their target OS is selected on a project- by-project basis. • Use of Android in current development projects while still limited grew significantly.  Not just smartphones, but automotive, industrial, medical, retail, and others. Complexity of embedded devices accelerating adoption of more formal operating systems Note: Percentages sum to over 100% due to multiple responses. 16 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice Type of Operating System(s) Used on Target Embedded System on Previous Project, Current Project & Expected to be Used on Next Project (Percent of Responses)
  18. 18. 1.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 4.1% 4.1% 6.7% 7.0% 8.0% 9.2% 15.9% 16.6% 17.8% 18.2% 23.2% 29.6% 29.9% 32.8% 38.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Support for multiprocessing architectures Virtualization capabilities Support for multi-core architectures Reputation of vendor Security Independence from semiconductors Size of developer community Variety of microprocessors supported Bundled software components Small footprint vs. memory prices/availability Technical support from vendor Customer requirements Run-time royalty cost Familiar programming interface Technical capabilities Availability of development tools Reliability/stability Real-time capabilities/performance Overall cost Most Important Characteristics for Selecting Embedded Operating System (Percent of Respondents, N = 314) Most Important Selection Criteria Embedded/RTOS/Mobile operating systems and IDEs 17 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice Note: Sums to more than 100% due to multiple responses. 3.4% 9.9% 14.9% 18.3% 21.4% 22.1% 24.4% 30.5% 31.7% 34.4% 45.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Multiprocessing support Reputation of vendor Support for open/industry standards Variety of microprocessors supported Technical support from vendor Availability of other tools, OS(s), and other run- time software from vendor Compatibility/interoperability Technical capabilities/performance Ease of use Familiarity with tools/past experience with vendor Price/cost Most Important Characteristics When Selecting Current Project IDE (Percent of Respondents, N = 262)
  19. 19. Market Trends Multicore expectations continuing to expand 5.8% 18.5% 13.6% 32.1% 30.0% 1.8% 8.6% 6.5% 21.9% 61.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Don't know or N/A Multicore and multiprocessor Multicore Multiprocessor Single processor Current & Expected Characterization of the Processor Design (Percent of Respondents) Current Project, N = 278 Expected in Two Years, N = 243 8.5% 19.4% 21.4% 20.6% 30.1% 2.5% 5.2% 9.4% 20.8% 61.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Don't know or N/A Multicore and multiprocessor Multicore Multiprocessor Single processor Current & Expected Characterization of the Processor Design (Percent of Respondents) Current Project, N = 385 Expected in Two Years, N = 355 2009 Embedded Engineering Survey 2010 Embedded Engineering Survey 18 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  20. 20. Market Trends Operating system virtualization use limited – but future use expected to increase 8.9% 2.8% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Hypervisor /Virtualization Layer /Microkernel Use in Current Projects & Expected Use in Two Years (Percent of Respondents) Current Project, N = 318 Expected in Two Years, N = 291 19 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  21. 21. Market Trends 2.0% 2.0% 31.8% 0.9% 11.5% 28.7% 23.2% 1.3% 2.3% 4.2% 5.5% 11.2% 21.4% 54.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Mac OS Unix Windows 7 Windows Vista Linux commercially supplied Linux publically obtained Windows XP Current Development Project, N = 384 Expected in Two Years, N = 349 Primary Host Development Environment – Current Project / Expected Two Years (Percent of Respondents) Note: Sums to more than 100% due to multiple responses. 20 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice Windows-based development environments currently preferred – but Linux use expected to increase
  22. 22. Future Market Outlook • The decision to develop and support in-house RTOS solutions has been increasingly scrutinized, as issues around stability, support, cost-effectiveness and time-to-market pressures have become principal themes in project planning.  OEMs have been increasingly concentrating on their own core competencies and shifting internal resources away from in-house operating system design, support, and maintenance. • The use of Linux and other open source OS solutions in embedded systems has continued to intensify  Key drivers of these solutions continues to be the low cost/no cost availability of Linux distributions, as well as the extensiveness of available developer resources and the maturing ecosystem of applications.  The emergence of the Google and OHA’s Android platform has the potential to have a major role in the direction of the embedded industry, as companies look to adapt and complement the platform to support device classes beyond the traditional mobile phone environment. • While the use of multicore and operating system virtualization technologies is currently limited to a small percentage of projects under development, an increasing percentage of embedded engineers are expecting to incorporate these technologies in future projects.  As such suppliers of these technologies are ramping their messaging and product support  VDC expects that both of these technologies will continue to be a significant focus of many suppliers over the next several years and offer increased opportunities for revenue growth. On technologies 22 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  23. 23. Future Market Outlook • Engineer perceptions on the health of the job market has improved year over year • VDC continues to engage in discussions with a broad spectrum of companies to understand market conditions and how companies are responding and here’s what we’re hearing:  Sales cycles are still extended  Product investments being made “however” low cost options are now less frequently viewed as cheap • VDC is forecasting market growth of ~3% between 2009 to 2010.  We expect the overall market to rebound slowly and reach 2008 levels in 2011  Growth will be uneven between the different product categories (Embedded/RTOS market expected to grow the fastest)  Asia-Pacific region forecasted to grow the fastest  Vertical markets • In 2009 automotive was impacted the most by the economic slowdown having a decline of greater than 10% from 2008, however, VDC estimates that automotive will rebound and have the highest growth rate over the forecast period (2012). • Consumer electronic devices was also down greater than 10% in 2009 due to the economic impact on overall consumer spending, however, this segment is expected to rebound more slowly over the forecast period. • VDC estimates that the medical industry was the only segment to show growth year-over-year and is expected to grow at a rate greater than the overall market CAGR through 2012. • Other markets expected to grow faster than the overall market CAGR during the forecast period include industrial automation, military/aerospace, telecom/datacom, and retail automation. Estimates and Forecasts 22 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  24. 24. How VDC’s Coverage Will Help Clients Stay on top of the Market in 2011 The 2011 Embedded Software & Tools Market Intelligence Service • Track 1: Embedded Software Engineering Market Technologies & Statistics  Vol. 1: Embedded/Real-time Operating Systems  Vol. 2: Android & Linux in the Embedded Systems Market  Vol. 3: Mobile Operating Systems  Vol. 4: Virtualization for Mobile & Embedded Systems  Vol. 5: Multicore Components & Tools  Vol. 6: Safety & Security  Vol. 7: Vertical Markets & Applications  Vol. 8: Embedded Systems Market Statistics • Track 2: Embedded System Engineering Survey Data  Vol. 1: Operating Systems  Vol. 2: Development Tools  Vol. 3: Vertical Markets  Vol. 4: Regional  Vol. 5: Processor Architectures 22 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  25. 25. Research in the Works • Software & System Lifecycle Management (SSLM) Tools  Multi-volume proposal  Cover both the Embedded and greater Enterprise IT market segments  Topics to include: • Software & System Modeling Tools – planned publication November 2010 • Automated Test & Verification Tools – planned publication December 2010 • Requirements Management Tools – planned publication January 2011 • Source/Change/Configuration Management (SCCM) Tools – planned publication March 2011 • Engineering Design Methodologies, Processes & Standards – planned publication April 2011 • Interested in learning more about this service?  VDC conducted a webinar in September 2010  Visit the practice blog to view the webinar at: http://blog.vdcresearch.com/embedded_sw/ Software and system lifecycle product offering 23 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice
  26. 26. Q&A Session Thank You for Attending this VDC Webcast To receive the practice monthly bulletin and other news please opt-in at: www.vdcresearch.com/signup/ For more information about VDC Research coverage of the global markets for the Embedded Software & Tools practice – please contact: Steve Balacco Director, Embedded Software & Tools Practice sbalacco@vdcresearch.com | 508.653.9000 x124 Cyril Bernard Account Executive cbernard@vdcresearch.com | 508.653.9000 x142 Chris Rezendes Executive Vice President cjr@vdcresearch.com | 508.653.9000 x120 24 –  2010 VDC Research Group, Inc. Embedded Software & Tools Practice

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