The document discusses potential changes in education by 2020 due to technology and social disruptors. Key points include: 1) Technology like MOOCs, mobile learning, and adaptive platforms will enable inexpensive and new modes of learning as well as credentials like badges. 2) Social factors may impact education, such as high costs of university in the US and uncertain job outcomes for graduates. 3) By 2020, the author predicts a widening gap between top and other universities. Courses will be offered through MOOCs. Learning may increasingly take place informally through platforms like Quora and Stack Overflow to supplement jobs. Intelligent systems may reduce the need to learn for some.

1. Open Discussion:
Education in 2020
Carsten Ullrich
Associate Researcher at the E-Learning
Lab of Shanghai Jiao Tong University,
China

2. Current Disruptors/Changes: Technology
• Technology enables
– Inexpensive access
– New modes of learning/certification
Carsten Ullrich: Education in 2020

3. Current Disruptors/Changes: Technology
• MOOCs
– Massive Open Online Courses
• Access
– Learner  Learner (P2P)
– Teacher Learner
– Institution  Learner
• Assessment/qualifications
– E.g. badges
– Stack overflow, Quora
Carsten Ullrich: Education in 2020

4. Current Disruptors/Changes: Technology
• Mobile?
• Context
• Adaptivity/Personalization
Carsten Ullrich: Education in 2020

5. Current Disruptors/Changes: Social
• High costs
– US: outstanding student debt > $1T
• Uncertain outcome
– Is studying worth the money?
– Insufficient jobs for qualification (76% of 2012
graduates had been able to find jobs)
• Uncertain qualifications
– Employers often not satisfied with qualification of
hired graduates
Carsten Ullrich: Education in 2020

6. 2020
• “Traditional” education
– Costs for top universities will have increased
• Highly valuable, due to networks
– Gap between top tier and remaining universities widens
– Courses offered via MOOCs
• “Education” 2.0
– Left-behind learners:
• take part in MOOCs, but worthless
• Learning in their spare time, in addition to job
– Shining exceptions: excellent Quora/Stack Overflow profile
• Less need for learning thanks to intelligent systems
Carsten Ullrich: Education in 2020

7. Questions
• In 2020,
– will there still be universities?
– when you hire, what kind of qualifications do you
require?
– will you send your kid to university?
– what device will we be using?
– do we still need to learn or will my glasses do
everything?
Carsten Ullrich: Education in 2020