The document provides an overview of developments in the global airline industry, focusing on growth projections, new technologies, and sustainability considerations. Some key points: - Air passenger traffic is expected to double by 2030, straining existing airport infrastructure. The ICAO is working with stakeholders to implement efficiency improvements through its Global Plan. - New technologies like continuous descent operations, arrival management, and airborne collision avoidance systems aim to increase airspace capacity and flight efficiency while improving safety. - Automated flight control technologies could allow for fully automated piloting in the future, taking control of aircraft in emergency situations. However, investments are still needed to integrate these systems. - Sustainable aviation fuels and more fuel

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The Global Airline Industry
Technology, Developments, Considerations and Opportunities
Moving Into the 21st
Century.
Student: Sean Hanlon C09826459
Supervisor: Declan Allen
Course: DT028/4 Transport Operations and Technology
Subject: Dissertation

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Contents:
1. Introduction P.3
2. The Growth of the Airline Industry - Some Facts and Figures P.6
2.1 Air Traffic Projections and Areas for Attention P.7
2.2 Continuous Descent Operations (CDOs) and Arrival Management (AMAN) P.9
2.3 Departure Management (DMAN) and Continuous Climb Operations (CCO) P.14
2.4 (FF-ICE) Flight and flow – Information for a Collaborative Environment and (SWIM) System
Wide Information Management P.16
3. Space Tourism P.19
4. Airbus A380 – How it has changed aviation standards around the world P.26
4.1 Airbus A380 characteristics P.26
4.2 Larger Aircraft – Modern Technology and Greater fuel efficiency P.29
4.3 Aircraft Aerodynamic Improvements P.31
5. Economic Considerations P.34
6. The Environment - Political Considerations and Scenarios P.38
7. Conclusion P.45
8. Bibliography P.47

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1. Introduction:
Since 2008 we have witnessed the financial defaults of major banks and large areas of the world are
now living in declining economic and financial conditions. Despite this situation the airline
industry has continued to experience growth worldwide, and continues to predict future growth and
expansion well into the foreseeable future. This study examines the business operation of airlines
globally and assesses how carriers and airport authorities are reacting to strategies proposed by
institutions such as the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) who are driving the future
of the airport and airline experience for billions of people all around the world.
The ICAO state at the time of their Global Air Navigation Capacity report in 2013, that the airline
industry ‘directly and indirectly supports the employment of 56.6 million people’ worldwide and
that it ‘contributes over $2 trillion to global Gross Domestic Product (GDP)’.1 That is a
considerable slice of the entire world economy's wealth, which is close to US$70 trillion in value a
year. The airlines of the world as of last year carried over ‘2.5 billion passengers and $5.3 trillion
worth of cargo annually.’ 2 The predicted boom in air travel has airports, airlines and manufacturers
working together to co-ordinate the most efficient plan possible to allow travellers to travel in the
most modern, safe and stress-free environment while continuing to push the boundaries of
efficiency across the entire aircraft and airline operations spectrum.
1 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P. 8.
2 Ibid., P. 8.

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The response of industry has been recognisable and consistent worldwide. In order to achieve the
best economical outcome in the long term, terminals are being rebuilt all over the world to
accommodate the new king pin of modern commercial aviation, the Airbus A380. The introduction
of the A380 into the commercial transport market has forced airports all around the world to update
and modernise their terminals to allow for the extra height and width of the aircraft along with the
increased passenger numbers. The A380 has pushed the limits of aeronautical engineering and is
incredibly efficient, offering airline operators increased passenger numbers at more economically
viable prices. I will be taking a closer look at some of these improvements and the gains that
resulted from the aircraft's use. This will cover a range of issues that have already been dealt with
or will be coming down the line in the near future. I will also address general improvements in
aviation technology and designated aerodynamics features that are targeted for an upgrade in
aviation practices in general.
The Airbus A380 crossing a dual-carriageway in Singapore.

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In the second chapter I focus on a relatively new phenomenon; Space tourism. The private
enterprise behind it are targeting at a small but wealthy clientele who can afford to pay the highly
expensive cost of a trip into space. There are a number of private enterprises seeking to establish a
market as soon as approval is granted by the American Federal Aviation Authorities. I will look into
the procedure of the flight itself and the technology being used to offer the incredible trip, while
finally analysing the strategic reasons behind the choosing of the Spaceport location and their
business model.
In the wake of the financial collapse of 2008 many people across the world lost large chunks of
their savings, pensions and wealth destruction happened across the board for those unfortunate
enough to be caught in the middle of the collapse. The financial problems across the world show no
sign of slowing down or going away at the present time. I will examine in some detail these
worrying trends in the world economy and how they might have a significant impact on the world
of aviation in the not too distant future. This will be analysed from a geo-political stand point and I
will discuss the potential ramifications of what looks to be coming down the line, economically
speaking. Finally, I will examine the impacts of global warming or climate change phenomenon on
the airline industry and populations in general with a somewhat alternative, but fully documented
point of view.

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2. The Growth of the Airline Industry - Some Facts and Figures
The downturn in the global economy in 2008 has had a noticeable impact on the amount of freight
moved by air all over the world. The American Bureau of Transportation Statistics stated that
‘Global international air cargo, measured in freight ton-kilometres, fell 23 percent from 2007’ to
the end of 2008.3 While holding steady through 2009-2010, there was a noticeable drop in the
number of freight moved in 2011 and 2012, decreasing in each year. 2013 experienced some
moderate growth again in the sector with a 1.4% increase compared to 2012, which saw 182billion
freight kilometres moved around the world.4 As has been highlighted in the opening introduction,
passenger numbers going through airports have bucked this trend and have continued to show
continued growth all over the world. By 2030 the ICAO predict that revenue passenger kilometres
generated will increase by an average of 4.5% per year on year. This will result in a doubling of the
2012 figure of 5.4 trillion in revenue passenger kilometres or an estimated three billion passengers
travelling in 2012.5
The forecasted growth in the airline passenger transport sector is placing a serious strain on existing
airport infrastructure all around the world, which is not sufficient to deal with the expected
increased demand in the future. In this context we will examine the strategy of the highest aviation
authority in the world in dealing with this problem and assess how the ICAO’s plans are being put
into effect to maintain professional airport operations of uniform structure across the globe. In what
the ICAO call their ‘Global Plan Minimum Path’ they summarize their expectations of all regional
airport and ‘planning and implementation regional groups’ (PIRGS). The minimum requirements
of this plan:
 Obliges States to map their individual or regional programmes against the harmonized Global
Plan;
 Requires active collaboration with regional colleagues through the PIRGs in order to co-ordinate
initiatives within applicable regional Air navigation Plans;
3 (Rita) Bureau of Transportation Statistics (US), Freight Transportation:Global Highlights 2010,P.3.
4 International Air Transport Association,‘Moderate Growth for Air Cargo in 2013’, Full Year Performance Statistics
Released Press Release No: 5 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2014-02-05-01.aspx
5 ICAO, ‘Facts and Figures’ http://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/FactsFigures.aspx[2013]

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 Provides all required tools for States and regions to consider comprehensive business case
analyses as they seek to realize their specific operational improvements.6
In the Report of the High Level Group on aviation research in a paper called Europe’s vision for the
future they stated that the number of commercial flights within Europe is projected to be ‘up to 25
million in 2050 compared to 9.4 million in 2011.’7 Their stated goals are to have ‘90% of travellers
within Europe… able to complete their journey, door-to-door within 4 hours. Passengers and
freight are able to transfer seamlessly between transport modes to reach the final destination
smoothly, predictably and on-time. Flights arrive within 1 minute of the planned arrival time
regardless of weather conditions. The transport system is resilient against disruptive events and is
capable of automatically and dynamically reconfiguring the journey within the network to meet the
needs of the traveller if disruption occurs.
To implement the global plan requires collaboration between governments, regional aviation bodies
and the airline industry which will need to bring about the desired synergy which has been
demonstrated throughout the airline industry’s history. These bodies are currently laying a solid
foundation to realise this plan, as I will demonstrate over the following chapters.
2.1 Air Traffic Projections and Areas for Attention
Despite the gloomy economic circumstances the major players in the aviation industry, such as
Boeing and Airbus, both estimate a sizeable increase in the number of aircraft in our skies over the
coming decades. Airbus predicts that they will add 29,226 new aircraft to the skies around the world
by 2032. This is an increase of 1,028 aircraft above what Airbus has in operation today at an
estimated value of $4.4trillion dollars.8 Boeing is even more optimistic about the expansion of the
number of their planes that will be in the skies moving towards 2032. They estimate that the number
of Boeing aircraft will increase from the 20,310 in 2012 to 41,240 by 2032, more than double the
number.9
6 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P.12.
7 European Commission, ‘Flightpath 2050 - Europe’s Vision for Aviation - Report of the High Level Group on Aviation
Research’ P.8 [2011]
8 Leahy, John, ‘Future Journeys,Global Market Forecast 2013-2032’, COO Customers, Airbus. Slide 3/54
9 Boeing, ‘Current Market Outlook 2013-32’ http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/cmo/

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The criteria for measuring air travel demand since records began have been the number of
‘passengers, aircraft movements,’ and ‘revenue passenger kilometres.’10 For many overcrowded
airports and air space regions already experiencing major traffic flows, the introduction of these
extra aircraft is nothing short of a logistical nightmare. Under the ICAO’s direction air navigation
planners are conducting surveys of ‘current and foreseen aircraft populations and capabilities,
forecasts of averaged and peak aircraft movements, existing Air Traffic Management legacy
infrastructure, including related human resource availability and skill levels,’ and lastly
‘civil/military access requirements and considerations with respect to Special Use of Airspace
Requirements' (SUA).11 An analysis of these areas will enable air navigation planners to identify
specific performance shortcomings in their local operations area and allow them to use this
information to co-ordinate with the planned upgrades that are to be implemented globally through
regional planners in co-ordination with the ICAO.
The planning and research requirements of the above mentioned criteria will be considered along
with forecasts conducted by airport authorities covering a wide range of issues such as the ‘general
economic situation; locally and internationally’ including the ‘socioeconomic and demographic
variables of the airport region’. The area that will most likely impact on the forecasting of air
traffic in the short to medium term will most likely be ‘economic factors directly related to airlines
operating at the airport’ followed by the ‘overall safety, security and convenience of air travel.’12
10 Ashford, Mumayiz, Wright, Airport Engineering:Planning,Design and Development of 21st Century Airports (4th
Edition), P.21.
11 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P.22.
12 Ashford, Mumayiz, Wright, Airport Engineering:Planning,Design and Development of 21st Century Airports (4th
Edition), P.24.

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2.2 Continuous Descent Operations (CDOs) and Arrival Management (AMAN):
Source of picture: ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028, Doc. No.9750, pg.40
The above continuous descent operations can be carried out in a descending looping arc type
fashion to allow for greater use of potential airspace. An added benefit of this type of descent
operation is the reduction in wake turbulence, as the aircraft following behind at any given time will
not be flying into the previous plans wake or vortexes of air. This will allow for a more compact
flow of air traffic coming into airports, thus increasing the flow of traffic in and out of the airport
with ‘improved track predictability’.13 The movement of air traffic globally is managed under the
term Performance Based Navigation (PBN). The EU’s EUROCONTROL, states how it is being
obtained and how it will evolve in the future with PBN being achieved through ‘enhanced Air
Traffic Management and by exploiting technological advancements in the fields of Communication,
Navigation and Surveillance. More specifically, the application of area navigation techniques in all
flight phases contributes directly to improved airspace optimisation.’14
A stand out feature of the future of PBN is the use of fully automated flight control that would
allow ‘aircraft-to-aircraft separation to be ‘built-into’ the airspace design, thereby enabling the
migration from ATC (Air Traffic Control) to ATM (Air Traffic Management).’15 This flight control
13 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P.42.
14 EUROCONTROL, ‘Introducing Performance Based Navigation (PBN) and Advanced RNP (A-RNP)’ P.4
15 [EUROCONTROL, ‘Introducing Performance Based Navigation (PBN) and Advanced RNP (A-RNP)’ P.5.

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system will work in collaboration with ground based vertical guidance systems that work using a
global navigation satellite system (GNSS) to allow the safest and most flexible performance-based
navigation dealing in airport operations.16 The goal of this system, besides the obvious safety
aspects, is to efficiently maximise runway capacity. The ongoing development and advancement of
enhanced flow performance will allow for the management of groups of aircraft at the same time
which will make better use of airspace and allow for better coordination of aircraft through ‘interval
management systems’.17 This type of system is of more relevance to the larger HUBs around the
world with much denser air traffic. An added safety feature, which is to be implemented globally, is
the installation of an airborne collision avoidance system. This is defined as ‘an aircraft system
based on secondary surveillance radar (SSR) transponder signals which operates independently of
ground-based equipment to provide advice to the pilot on potential conflicting aircraft that are
equipped with SSR transponders’.18 The introduction of this technology will lighten the workload
for air traffic controllers and also have the added benefit of reducing the likelihood of airborne
collisions. It will work by giving the pilot a warning in the cockpit that he is entering close
proximity territory of another aircraft and advise him/her of a course of action that must be followed
regardless of what is instructed from air traffic control. This technology will be mandatory for all
aircraft that are added to European airspace by December 1, 2015 onwards.19 There will need to be
adequate training procedures put into place to meet airworthiness and safety standards for all
operators of the collision avoidance technology which will take time to achieve a high standard of
uniformity. With the advancement of computer technologies in aircraft flight procedures I will
examine the next step of progression that looks like it will become a reality of future air travel in the
not too distant future, totally automated flight control.
In 2006 Boeing patented what they called an ‘Uninterruptible autopilot’ technology that, when
activated, can instantly take complete control of the aircraft from the pilots and direct a ‘commercial
airliner to a predetermined location’. This safety feature can be activated by the pilots or by sensors
on-board such as a pressure sensor on the cabin door if someone was trying to break in using
excessive force. To guarantee the integrity of the system it has its own power supply which would
be independent of the aircraft's circuit breakers.20 The technology to implement a fully automated
16 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P.47
17 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P.78.
18 Commission of the European Communities, ‘Draft regulation laying down common air space usage requirements and
Operating Procedures’ P.4
19 Commission of the European Communities, ‘Draft regulation laying down common air space usage requirements and
Operating Procedures’ P.5
20 Croft, John, ‘Boeing patents anti-terrorism auto-land systemfor hijacked airliners’, [1 Dec 2006]

11. 11
pilot system is in a state of readiness now, although it would take investments in technology, with
the updating of IT systems to ensure an extremely high level of reliability and safety, before it could
become fully automated. Airbus claim that their CATIII automated flight technology is ‘the most
effective way in which an airline can maintain its schedule throughout the year without any
diversions due to the weather. This results in lower costs incurred by otherwise expensive
diversions and passenger compensation, as well as preventing degradation of the airline's image.21
This only is acceptable if the airport being approached has the required instrument landing system
to guide the aircraft to the runway surface and along the runway.22
This added safety feature when adapted into normal descent procedure incorporating the descending
looping arc would maximize efficiency of airport landings while maintaining safe ‘wake turbulence
separation’ among aircraft. The ICAO has estimated that with just the wake safety procedures alone
a busy airport that handles more than 30 landings per hour could bring about a 4% increase in traffic
revenue with an extra landing per hour.23 The added autopilot automation is expected to moderately
increase traffic revenue if implemented fully. There is also the opportunity to have more flexible
flight trajectories for individual aircraft with less workload for air traffic control as a result, and the
added bonus of shortened flight length and fuel consumption. In the United Arab Emirates for
example more than half the airspace is military. The ICAO estimate that opening up this airspace
could potentially ‘enable yearly savings in the order of 4.9 million litres of fuel and 581 flight
hours’ for flights coming in and out of the kingdom.24
There are a host of companies writing detailed papers on how the technology can be incorporated
into European Aviation as we move towards 2016. The European RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft
Systems) Steering Group was set-up by the European Commission in July 2012 with the aim of ‘the
safe integration of civil RPAS into the European aviation system, aiming at an initial RPAS
integration by 2016.’ 25 This effort would require a lot of training hours for new staffing procedures
to enable the safest possible conditions and to allow the partners involved to achieve the required
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/diagrams-boeing-patents-anti-terrorism-auto-land-system-for-hijacked-
210869/
21 Airbus, ‘Flight Operations and Line Assistance,Getting to Grip with CATII/CATIII Operations’, P.4
www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/1480.pdf [3/10/2001]
22 Airbus, ‘Flight Operations and Line Assistance,Getting to Grip with CATII/CATIII Operations’, P.144
www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/1480.pdf [3/10/2001]
23 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P.67.
24 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P.55
25 Final report from the European RPAS Steering Group, ‘Roadmap for the integration of civil Remotely-Piloted
Aircraft Systems into the European Aviation System‘ P.5

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airworthiness standards. This is planned to be slowly integrated into the aviation system and it is not
just aircraft that is going to be remotely controlled. Some of the smaller airports around the world
can have remotely operated aerodrome control that utilise surveillance systems to take over air
traffic control. This would enable airports that are borderline economically viable continue to
operate and provide a service to the general public.26 The envisaged remotely operated aerodrome
control will have a control structure as highlighted in the diagram below.
Source of diagram: ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation System Block Upgrades: The
Framework for Global Harmonization, P.104
The town of Örnsköldsvik in Sweden had the first airport in the world to be controlled from a
distance using remote control technology. The website Future airport tells us that ‘high-resolution
digital video cameras, metrological sensors, microphones and other devices at the remote airport
are linked in real time to the RTC (Remote Traffic Control) where images are projected onto
panoramic LCD screens that can provide a complete 360° view; rather than looking through the
window at the aircraft, air traffic controllers view them on the screen.’27 The remote controllers
will have control over all areas of operations, the warning and tower systems, ground operations
and departure and arrival management.
It remains to be seen how this remotely controlled system will improve upon flight safety: although
most in the industry seem to think it will have no negative effect, not everyone is happy. This
26 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P.70.
27Future Airport, ‘Remote control: the remote tower concept’,
http://www.futureairport.com/features/featureremote-control-the-remote-tower-concept-4157951/

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technology is to be rolled out across the world with the loss of many skilled jobs in rural areas
especially. Alice Springs airport in the centre of Australia is one such airport that has been on a trial
since October 2013 using the remote controlled aerodrome technology. The control centre for Alice
Springs airport is currently based in Adelaide over 1,500km away.28 It is stated that this is just a
trial phase, but people working in the area believe it is a long-term strategy.29 If the trial is
successful it is expected that the air traffic controllers will simply be forced to move to a more
urban airport or even into the remote control aerodrome initiative itself.
These upgrades in aviation practices will be somewhat unusual for many air travellers and people
employed in the industry itself and will result in many job losses in air traffic control and to a lesser
extent, amongst those employed in the operations end of the airline industry in the quieter and
smaller airports around the world. The changeover to any new system will not be quick due to the
current technology and infrastructure shortfalls and the expected industry norm of gradually
increasing change in the operations structure to allow the required infrastructure to be in a state of
readiness. The European RPAS steering group have identified the technological shortcomings in the
following six key areas:
• Integration into ATM (Air Traffic Management) and Airspace environments
• Verification and Validation
• Data communication links incl. spectrum issues
• Detect & Avoid systems and operational procedures
• Security issues
• Operational contingency procedures and systems
• Surface operations incl. take-off and landing30
Aviation technology, like many sectors, is moving towards further automation, and computer
automated control is being increasingly directed towards automated flight systems controlled by
ground based computer and satellite technology. A headache with this system is the multiple
different national airspaces and technology systems that individual companies or aviation
28 Air Services Australia, ‘Remote Tower Technology’[9/12/2013]
http://www.airservicesaustralia.com/projects/remote-tower-technology-2/
29Chlanda, Erwin, ‘Remote air traffic control: anotherloss of skilled workers in Alice Springs?’ Alice Spring News
Online
http://www.alicespringsnews.com.au/2011/07/23/remote-air-traffic-control-another-loss-of-skilled-workers-in-alice/
30 Final report from the European RPAS Steering Group, ‘Roadmap for the integration of civil Remotely-Piloted
Aircraft Systems into the European Aviation System’ P.8

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authorities must deal with. It is vital that a standardised ICAO blueprint for manufacturers and other
aviation partners is followed. One such step in the European context, was the introduction of the
concept of what the EU has called the ‘Single European Sky’. This was launched in 1999 by the
European Commission and it established a legal framework similar to America’s Federal Aviation
Authority (FAA), which has complete control over the commercial aviation activities in the United
States as opposed to the national aviation agencies which controlled air blocks in Europe.
EUROCONTROL is the name of the EU organisation controlling European skies at the moment
and was created as ‘a response to the dramatic growth in air travel witnessed in the last two
decades.’ It is essentially the breaking up of national border controlled flight paths to a regionalised
flight path based on more efficient flight paths.31 A good example of this being put into working
practice is the formation of the Anglo-Irish Functional Airspace Block (FAB) which has been
operational since July 2008. It has saved carriers an estimated 48,000 tonnes in fuel savings since its
introduction, along with shortening flight times.32 Air traffic flow management is one of the most
critical components of aviation safety and the need to manage increased traffic will inevitably put a
strain on the established systems. The EU’s plan sounds positive in theory, but it inevitably implies
that people will lose their jobs in national aviation centres across Europe as the twenty eight
national air traffic blocks will be replaced by nine regional blocks. These nine blocks have already
been set up, yet they have not yet been allowed to take over complete control of European airspace
management.33 Local politics is one of the main factors slowing this process of ‘harmonization’ into
regional blocs. Nevertheless, the ICAO’s long-range plan for ‘improved flow performance through
planning on a Network-wide view’ is slowly but surely being implemented at the regional and local
level.34 Increasing the efficiency of air traffic flows is very important for the future of aviation and
should be welcomed, but at what cost to professionals working in the industry? The total
automation of services will undoubtedly leave a lot of people unemployed, and their area of
expertise may become obsolete in the medium-long term as the automation of systems becomes
more main-stream.
31 Eurocontrol, ‘Single European Sky’ http://www.eurocontrol.int/dossiers/single-european-sky
32 National Air Traffic Services NATS, ‘Single European Sky’ http://www.nats.aero/news/projects/ses/
33 European Parliament News, ‘Single Sky: how to ensure the reorganisation of European airspace takes off’
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20140129STO34174/html/Single-Sky-how-to-ensure-the-
reorganisation-of-European-airspace-takes-off [30/1/2014]
34 ICAO, ‘Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028’,Doc. No.9750, P.56

15. 15
2.3 Departure Management (DMAN) and Continuous Climb Operations (CCO) :
Departure management is a critical component of airport operations and sound airport operations
management. Enabling a smooth transition between taxiing to the designated runway and taking off
in a safe manner will now be examined for the future upgrades that are to be implemented to enable
airport authorities to maintain safety while increasing their capacity for increased traffic flow. One
simple type of recommended upgrade of ground operations is the introduction of metering when an
aircraft is on the ground. While the aircraft is moving on the ground within an airport it will have to
reach a specific point by a specific time in co-ordination with all the other moving aircraft on the
ground. This is to maximise the efficiency of an aerodrome operation via air traffic control. It
reduces the waiting time for aircraft waiting to take off, which can be critical in colder climates,
which ideally require pilots to get airborne as soon as possible due to the de-icing and anti-icing
performed on aircraft only lasting for a specific time period. There is also the added advantage of
less fuel being consumed and pollutants being released into the atmosphere. This improved traffic
flow management is described in detail under the ICAOs AMAN (Arrival Management) and
DMAN (Departure Management) strategies. This also has the added advantage of removing
uncertainty in terminal demand prediction.35
Keeping performance based navigation in mind, the ICAO has planned to optimize ‘throughput,
improve flexibility, enable fuel-efficient climb profiles and increase capacity at congested terminal
areas.36 Another of the main areas being targeted is the optimization of aircraft use in their ascent
or continuous climb operation. It is during this phase of flight that the biggest loads are on the
aircraft and a large proportion of fuel consumption will occur during this time. Boeing defines a
route plan or flight plan as the route the crew will fly and specifies altitudes and speeds. It also
provides calculations for how much fuel the airplane will use and the additional fuel it will need to
carry to meet various requirements for safety.37 Having an aircraft ascend at an optimum flight level
is essential to maximizing fuel efficiency. The optimum flight level is to be ascertained using
meteorological data in combination with data concerning other flight traffic in the vicinity. The
ability to predict an optimum flight path climb trajectory is the key to the success of this strategy,
while also keeping in mind the strict noise restrictions that are in place around most of the world’s
35 ICAO, ‘Working Document for the Aviation System Block Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization ’ P.
42. [28/3/2013]
36 ICAO, ‘Working Document for the Aviation System Block Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization’ P.
345. [28/3/2013]
37 Boeing, ‘Effective Flight Plans Can Help Airlines Economize’
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/qtr_03_09/article_08_1.html

16. 16
major airports. There is also the added benefit of increased flight stability and the predictability of
flight path to both controllers and pilots.38 Manufacturers and airlines agree that reaching the
required cruising altitude as quickly as possible is crucial for minimising fuel consumption during
flight and, due to this fact, it is agreed that ‘any level or non-optimal reduced climb rate segments
during the climb should be avoided.39 Maintaining the safety and integrity of the airspace in respect
to other traffic on a descent profile will play a big role in this, but will be assessed to maximize
safety and efficiency. This process will be aided by the further implementation of automated flight
control technologies enabling the safe and precise separation of aircraft highlighted earlier in this
paper. The Global Air Traffic Management Concept envisioned by the ICAO which will be
‘implemented through regional programmes foresees air traffic control becoming traffic
management by trajectory.’40
The continuous climb operation will probably only be efficient in most cases when taking the
shortest possible flying route. The introduction of such practices requires minimal investment and
little more than the training of pilots and air traffic control to bring them up to the required level of
understanding to implement this strategy, as the technology is already installed in most modern
aircraft. A major factor in enabling the increased synchronisation of flight descent and ascent
operations and ground operations while maintaining safety is the improved understanding that will
be brought about via the upgrading of communication systems and standards being used in the
industry across the world. I will now examine this in further detail.
2.4 Flight and Flow – Information for a Collaborative Environment (FF-ICE) and System
Wide Information Management (SWIM)
The function of FF-ICE from the ICAO Global ATM Operational Concept initiative ‘defines
information requirements for flight planning, flow management and trajectory management and it
aims to be a cornerstone of the performance-based air navigation system. Flight information and
associated trajectories are principal mechanisms by which ATM service delivery will meet
38 ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation SystemBlock Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization,P.
347 [28/3/2013]
39 ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation System Block Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization ,
P.348/349 [28/3/2013]
40 ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation System Block Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization, P.132.
[28/3/2013]

17. 17
operational requirements.’41 FF-ICE is intended to cover the full spectrum of air traffic
management, as highlighted in the diagram below, and allows for the most complete data transfer
analysis possible while avoiding unnecessary overlap and confusion of data among the numerous
partners involved in ensuring the safety and integrity of commercial air navigation.
Source for Diagram: ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation System Block Upgrades: The Framework
for Global Harmonization. P.132
The implementation of FF-ICE allows what is effectively total information control across all the
relevant sectors named in the diagram above. Having all this information and being able to interpret
and use it in real time to improve efficiency is the goal. It will allow for ‘improved flight planning
and submission and amendment, and for pre-flight air traffic control management by facilitating the
flight information sharing between all stakeholders.’42
As is occurring in many other fields of industry, politics and business, there is a concerted effort to
implement global governance of the aviation industry under the global air traffic management
concept. In the EU report 'Flightpath 2050: Europe’s Vision for Aviation', the authors envisage that;
“In 2050, the European air transport system is integrated in a complete logistical transport chain
and part of a fully interconnected, global aviation system that is based on a multilateral regime
rather than on a series of bilateral agreements. Interoperability between Europe and the other
regional components of the global network is complete. Commercial air transport services are
provided mainly by airlines organised as a few global alliances.” 43
41 ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation SystemBlock Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization ,P.
139
42 ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation SystemBlock Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization,
P.129 [28/3/2013]
43 Flightpath 2050 – ‘Europe’s Vision for Aviation - Report of the High Level Group on Aviation Research’ P.8

18. 18
One such alliance is the One World Alliance, which is comprised of many of the largest airline
operators in the world. Individual air traffic controller networks or automated controllers, including
aircraft providing or using information are considered as nodes under the globalised plan. System
wide information management demands that there is a common methodology for exchanging
information with ‘the use of a suitable technology and compliant system interfaces.’44 This will
prove invaluable and absolutely necessary as the world moves to a 4-D trajectory management of
aircraft in our skies.’45
This is just one example of many modules of the aircraft business that are being targeted for a
specific ‘target performance improvement area’. Another area being talked about by the ICAO is
the flexible use of airspace (FUA). They state that ‘airspace should not be designated as either
purely civil or purely military airspace, but should be considered as one continuum in which all
users requirements have to be accommodated to the maximum extent possible.’46 In theory this
sounds equitable, but in reality a globally controlled airspace does not look feasible at present or in
the near future when one takes into consideration the recent events and tension between the
EU/NATO/American alliance against Russia, China and the many other nations who do not trust
the West. I will cover these concerns in a later chapter in more detail.
A concept that can and will work with the flexible use of airspace is the permission of flexible
routing of airline traffic while in flight. This will be a lot easier to govern with the full
implementation of FF-ICE and SWIM, as explained in detail earlier. The re-routing would take
place either with the desire of avoiding congestion or severe weather fronts which are not only
dangerous, but drastically increase fuel consumption if a flight is flying into a severe weather front
as opposed to flying away from one. To enable this procedure, especially over a sovereign nation's
territory, it is important to have some sort of flexible routing agreement in place with the respective
nations whose airspace will be accessed. Benefits of this approach include reduced costs for airlines
and less flight cancellations and diversions. To facilitate this move in the short term ‘letters of
44 ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation SystemBlock Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization ,P.
152. [28/3/2013]
45 ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation System Block Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization , P.
157. [28/3/2013]
46 ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation System Block Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization , P.
191. [28/3/2013]

19. 19
agreement and or letters of co-ordination will probably be necessary to avoid unwanted diplomatic
disputes arising from these practices.47
The main goals of air traffic flow management in a vastly superior information environment will be
the enhanced balance of demand and capacity, along with strategic network operations plan
management and traffic demand management.
3. Space Tourism
"My dream is to make space accessible to tens of thousands of people."
Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Galactic
It has fascinated many hundreds millions of people all over the world to be able to go into outer
space or what has been famously called ‘the last frontier’ in science fiction shows such as Star
Trek. This prospect is now on the verge of becoming a commercial reality, with a number of private
enterpises all over the world competing for a market share in what will surely be the ultimate
holiday experience. The Space Tourism Society defines space tourism as ‘earth orbit and suborbital
experiences, beyond earth orbit (such as Lunar and Mars) experiences, earth based simulations,
tours and entertainment experiances’ and ‘cyberspace tourism experiences’48. This endevour is
being funded and developed almost entirely through private financing. ‘The U.S. Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) has estimated that space tourism will become a $10 billion industry over the
next decade.’49 This out of our world experience will not come cheap: tickets on Virgin Galactic
space tours cost $250,000 dollars per seat on their six seater SpaceShipTwo (SS2) rocket-propelled
spacecraft.50 The flight testing stage of the aircraft is now drawing to a close with the recent testing
of SpaceShipTwo reaching an altitude of 71,000 feet and a speed of Mach 1.4 under rocket
propulsion.51
47 ICAO, Working Document for the Aviation System Block Upgrades: The Framework for Global Harmonization , P.
197
48 Space Tourism Society, ‘Philosophy’ http://spacetourismsociety.org/about/philosophy/
49 ICAO, Global Air Navigation Capacity and Efficiency Plan 2013-2028,Doc. No.9750, P.33
50 Klausner, Alexandra and Szathmary, Zoe, ‘Giant leap for space tourism! The moment Virgin Galactic's third test
flight reaches an all-time high altitude of 71,000 FEET’, The Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537776/Virgin-Galactics-test-flight-designed-space-tourism-reaches-time-
high-altitude-71-000-FEET.html [12/1/2014]
51David Nield, ‘Virgin Galactic’s third supersonic flight reaches highest altitude yet’, Digital Trends
http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/virgin-galactics-third-supersonic-flight-reaches-highest-altitude-yet/#!C2oJ8
[11/1/2014]

20. 20
The primary reason behind the latest test flight of the SS2 was to test the reaction control system
and a new thermal protection coating for the feathering fins, which are located close to the rocket
propulsion system at the rear of the aircraft. Due to a lack of atmosphere and the thinness of air at
the altitudes the spacecraft is flying, traditional control systems on an aircraft such as ailerons,
elevators and the rudder become less and less effective the further you go from the earths
atmosphere. Virgin Galactic have circumvented this problem through the use of a reaction control
system which utilises a system of thrusters controlled by an ‘inertial stability control system.’52
As can be seen in the photograph, SpaceShipTwo is connected to a four-engine, dual-fuselage jet
aircraft called WhiteKnightTwo (WK2). WK2 essentially couriers SS2 into the required altitude
and acts as a launch platform to propel SS2 into higher altitudes. WK2 is the world’s largest all
carbon composite aircraft with a wingspan of 140ft and was specifically designed to act as mother
ship for the SS2 to enable it to launch into space. The SS2 is designed to carry six passengers and
two pilots into space where they can experience 3-4 minutes of microgravity or weightlessness
while on their travel experience.53 For $250,000 dollars, a paying customer will experience an
incredible journey lasting about 120 minutes from take-off to landing. The planned location for this
outer space experience is the purpose-built Spaceport in Southern New Mexico, where the joined
WK2 and the SS2 take off and climb to an altitude of approximately 50,000 feet. The mated climb
is estimated to take about 60-90 minutes dependant on weather conditions. Following some routine
52 Dobson, Brian, ‘SpaceShipTwo sets new altitude and speed records’, Gizmag
http://www.gizmag.com/spaceship2-virgin-galactic-supersonic-record-branson/30418/ [11/1/2014]
53 Virgin Galactic, ‘Spaceship Two: An Introductory Guide for payload Users’ P.4/5 [3/1/2013]

21. 21
safety checks the WK2 releases SS2 into a freefall for a few seconds. Then when a safe distance is
reached between the two aircraft the SS2 ignites its rocket motor and the boost stage of the journey
commences for about 60 seconds. While the recent test flight recorded speeds of approximately
Mach 1.4, the intended flight speed in the boost stage will accelerate the spaceship to speeds
reaching as high as Mach 4 and to a height above the earth peaking at about 110km.54
The next stage of the flight, called the coasting phase of the flight, lasts for approximately 3-4
minutes. At this stage of the flight the passengers will experience the effects of microgravity.
NASA defines microgravity as ‘the condition in which people or objects appear to be weightless.’55
Virgin Galactic is looking at some techniques that trade pointing accuracy for microgravity quality
to enable a potential lengthening of the weightless period of the flight.56 At the peak height of the
journey, where the coasting phase of the flight begins, the wing shape is changed by rotating the tail
section upwards by about 60˚ in what Virgin describe as the aircraft feathering its wings as can be
seen in the picture below. This has little effect in slowing down the aircraft at the maximum altitude
of the flight as the air is so thin it offers very little wind resistance, but it increasingly acts as a brake
the further the aircraft descends back towards the earth and the atmosphere creates more drag the
54 Virgin Galactic, ‘Spaceship Two: An Introductory Guide for payload Users’ P.10 [3/1/2013]
55NASA, ‘What is Microgravity? [15/2/2012]
http://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/5-8/features/what-is-microgravity-58.html#.U0L2lhJrXCk
56 Virgin Galactic, ‘Spaceship Two: An Introductory Guide for payload Users’ P.11/12 [3/1/2013]

22. 22
further the spaceship descends. The re-entry stage of the flight back into the earth’s atmosphere
after coasting takes about 80 seconds, after which the wings are de-feathered and are changed back
to their original shape for the glide phase of the flight back to the spaceport. This takes about
15mins after re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere.57
Picture source: http://www.virgingalactic.com/multimedia/album/research-payload-graphics/
To date, Virgin Galactic has sold nearly 700 tickets despite not yet being in operation, or receiving
approval from the U.S. Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) for a commercial operator’s license.
While Richard Branson, Virgin Galactic’s owner, is very optimistic that his enterprise will be up
and running in 2014 and taking paying customers into space, it should be noted that the FAA has
not laid out a clear set out of rules and regulations that must be met by Virgin Galactic, and has no
plans to do so until October 2015. At present Virgin Galactic still requires a Reusable Launch
Vehicle Mission License, but is confident of being the first commercial operator to do so. The FAA
is likely to take a cautious approach towards regulation for commercial space travel as they are
entering into unchartered territory and will need to take safety concerns very seriously. This is
usually the case with aviation authorities, however, safety standards were relaxed for private
companies branching into space tourism and building spaceships to enable them get their respective
57 Virgin Galactic, ‘Spaceship Two: An Introductory Guide for payload Users’ P.10 [3/1/2013]

23. 23
projects up and running without being hampered by too much red tape and legislation restricting
their innovative capabilities.58
The New Mexico Spaceport
Picture taken from: http://www.virgingalactic.com/overview/spaceport/
The beautiful and futuristic looking spaceport above is located in Southern New Mexico in the
United States and is the purpose built location for space tourism in the United States when the
permission and licensing is granted by the Federal Aviation Authority. The location for the
spaceport was specifically chosen for the project for a number of very specific reasons, one of
which is the sparse population around the spaceport. It is located on 18,000 acres of state land in a
desert valley, with no commercial development nearby. This helps to keep insurance costs down
and makes licensing easier to attain due to the limited risk to the general public. Another advantage
and major reason the location was chosen was because the surrounding 10,000 square miles is a
restricted airspace due to the presence of a US army missile testing range in the vicinity of the
spaceport. This ensures a safe transit for the space trips and return back into the earth’s orbit
without having to worry about commercial air traffic. This is also helped by the excellent weather
conditions that New Mexico enjoys with some of the finest and most consistently good aviation
58 Powers, Lucas, ‘Virgin Galactic space tourists could be grounded by FAA’, CBS News [17/1/2014]
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/virgin-galactic-space-tourists-could-be-grounded-by-faa-1.2501310

24. 24
conditions all year round. The elevation of 4,600 feet above sea level is also stated as a key driver
behind the choice of location. That is 4,600 feet of less expense in getting the aircraft into outer
space.59
Virgin Galactic and the New Mexico Spaceport Authority are under no illusions about who their
core value customers are going to be, but they also understand that a large body of people will be
very interested in travelling to the site to experience the thrill of being in the space oriented
environment and soak up its surroundings. They plan to attract a large volume of people to a visitor
centre by turning it into a tourist destination attracting up to 200,000 people annually. During times
of economic boom the success of the enterprise would have been a lot more certain, and this has
been identified as a potential major stumbling block to the viability of the project. Additionally,
macroeconomic factors such as the state of the nation's economy are outside both groups control
and it is a major concern as they look towards the future.60
The New Mexico Spaceport is set up and licensed to facilitate horizontal take-offs, in addition to
vertical take-off suborbital space launches using a variety of different means such as high altitude
balloons.61 Another competitor in the market, World View Enterprises, recently announced they
will offer people the experience of viewing the world from a pressurised capsule lifted by a high
altitude balloon at 100,000 feet. It will allow six passengers and two crew members to experience
the stunning beauty of panoramic views of the world and outer space at a more modest, but still
highly expensive $75,000 per passenger.62 The flight profile proceeds with an ascent of about one
and a half hours in a helium filled balloon to just over 100,000 feet, where it floats in a stable
condition at approximately that altitude with no risk of floating off into space. This safety feature is
achieved by the chemistry of the helium itself. Being lighter than air it floats to the top of the
atmosphere and when it sits on top of it, it acts in the same way as ice cubes bobbing up and down
in a drink or on the surface of the liquid. To descend back to earth again it is a simple matter of
deflating some of the helium out of the balloon which then gently descends. At approximately
50,000 feet the balloon detaches from the capsule and glides back to earth using a Parawing which
looks like an oversized parachute and acts in essentially the same way. The Parawing is then used to
glide the passengers and crew to a predetermined land site which can be up to 300 miles away from
59 New Mexico Spaceport Authority,‘Strategic Business Plan’ P.4/5 [Jan. 2013]
60 New Mexico Spaceport Authority,‘Strategic Business Plan’. P.18/19 [Jan. 2013]
61 New Mexico Spaceport Authority,‘Strategic Business Plan’. P.12 [Jan. 2013]
62 O’ Ceallaigh, John,‘The Next Big Thing: the age of space tourism begins’, The Telegraph [7/4/2014]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/travel/29990/the-next-big-thing-the-age-of-space-tourism-begins.html

25. 25
the launch destination. Overall the entire time in the air lasts from about 5-6 hours.63 Space tourism
is still in its infancy, but looks to be a viable and hugely interesting enterprise for the companies and
customers involved.
[Photo taken from: http://worldviewexperience.com]
63 World View, ‘The Experience’ http://worldviewexperience.com/voyage/#flight-profile

26. 26
4. Airbus A380 – How it has changed aviation standards around the world
The introduction of the Airbus A380 into the aviation world in 2005 was seen as a revolutionary
step forward for modern aviation. I have already highlighted the resilience of the aviation industry
through the boom-bust cycles of modern economies and how the industry has significantly grown
despite economic and political setbacks associated with such events. This chapter will focus on how
the Airbus A380 has forced the hand of airlines, airport authorities and the industry worldwide to
adapt to the many changes associated with the world’s largest commercial airliner. When one talks
about the growth of the airline industry it is impossible to ignore the ongoing implications of the
introduction of the Airbus A380 into the commercial market in April 2005. Singapore Airlines was
the first commercial airline operator to provide a scheduled flight using the aircraft. Due to the
immense size of the aircraft, many airports worldwide had to redesign their terminals to
accommodate the aircraft. Runways had to be lengthened, aircraft access lifts had to be bigger and
the general layout of aircraft terminals had all to be reconfigured to achieve a working layout for the
introduction of the Airbus A380.
4.1 Airbus A380 characteristics:
Height: 24.09m
Wingspan: 79.75m
Length: 72.72m64
Maximum Ramp weight: 577,000kg
Maximum take-off weight: 575,000kg
Maximum Landing Weight: 395,000kg
Maximum zero-fuel weight: 373,000kg65
Minimum Turning Radius: 53.76m66
The Airbus A380 is the widest and tallest aircraft flying in commercial aviation in the world today
and comes in a variety of payload capabilities ranging ‘from 400 passengers in a very comfortable
64 Airbus A380, ‘Dimensions and key data’
http://www.airbus.com/aircraftfamilies/passengeraircraft/a380family/specifications/
65 Airbus A380, ‘Aircraft Characteristics, Airport and Maintenance Planning’, AIRBUS S.A.S.P.1 Aircraft Description
chapter. [30/3/2005].
66 Airbus A380, ‘Aircraft Characteristics, Airport and Maintenance Planning’, AIRBUS S.A.S. P.2 code: 04-03-00

27. 27
multiclass configuration, up to 853 passengers in an all economy class configuration.’67 The next
largest competitor is the Boeing 747-8 which has a wingspan of 68.5m, a length of 76.3m and a
height of 19.4m.68 This is almost five meters shorter in height than the Airbus A380. The
consequences of this new paradigm have forced airport authorities around the world to invest huge
sums of money upgrading terminal and apron facilities to enable them to handle the A380 and the
many problems that come with the increased size of the aircraft. It is a fact that historically, the
operating costs of the aircraft have constituted 85% of the operating costs of the entire air transport
system; the airports have contributed 10%, and the remaining 5% has been spent on navigation
charges and overheads of government control. This has resulted in a natural tendency for the
airports to accommodate any changes in aircraft design and performance that could maintain the
trend to lower aircraft direct operating cost.69
With this in mind it is easy to comprehend the effort being made internationally to facilitate the
A380. In Melbourne, Australia, $34.8 million was allocated to be spent on building two new
aerobridges and ground infrastructure to enable the airport to handle the aircraft and the sizing up of
necessary equipment needed to service the aircraft.70 A similar ongoing project is also being carried
out in Perth International Airport at an estimated cost of over $165 million, all to accommodate the
Airbus A380. 71 In the UK, Manchester airport has spent £50 million upgrading its airport, with a
number of new gates built to accommodate the A380.72 Such investment is occurring worldwide
and the examples are too numerous to cite within this work. These changes mean many
considerations must be taken into account by airport authorities in making the transition as smooth
as possible.
A common problem experienced by many airports in the United States, and indeed around the
world, was that runways were deemed not wide enough to accommodate the extra width of the
A380. The industry norm in the United States was previously 150 feet (45.72m), but under the new
rules for the A380 every airport which handled the aircraft, or planned to handle it in the future, had
to widen their runways to 200 feet (60.96m). They all had to make this upgrade to their
67 Airbus A380, ‘Aircraft Characteristics, Airport and Maintenance Planning’, AIRBUS S.A.S.P.1 in Scope Chapter
68 Boeing, ‘747 Family’ http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/747family/747-8_facts.page
69 Ashford, Mumayiz, Wright, ‘Airport Engineering 4th Edition – Planning, Design and Development of 21st Century
Airports’ P.74
70 Roots Project Australia, ‘Melbourne Airport Airbus A380 Terminal Expansion’ [2006-2007]
http://www.rootprojects.com.au/sectors/aviation/melbourne-airport-airbus-a380-terminal-expansion/
71 Wikipedia, ‘Perth Airport’ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_Airport#Redevelopment_plans
72 ManchesterAirport, ‘Flagship Terminal Relaunches at ManchesterAirport’
http://www.manchesterairport.co.uk/manweb.nsf/Content/newairportexperience

28. 28
infrastructure to meet FAA requirements. This was done along with moving runway lighting and
upgrading markings on the pavement.73 Approximately 83% of all costs associated with upgrades
necessary for the A380 in the United States were for the upgrade of runways and taxiway projects.
A major reason for this was not only the increased weight of the aircraft, but also to ensure adequate
pavement room for turning the aircraft.74 The upgrades of the taxiways were an essential upgrade
that also had to be made due to the increased wingspan of the aircraft. The nose-in bays spacing’s
were also determined by the wingspan of aircraft so they had to be redesigned by all airports
receiving the A380. Also, ‘the primary use of the minimum radius swept by the extremity of the
aircraft is used in determining the size of the apron and parking space…The minimum radius on
taxiways and turning points is based on this, though in practice the more important criterion is the
minimum radius that can be negotiated at a given taxi speed.’75 Individual airports had to judge if
the necessary upgrades were economically viable for the respective airport authorities. Major
international airports such as Los Angeles, Miami, New York and San Francisco deemed it
absolutely necessary to ‘maintain their competitive status.’76 Major international airports that did
not make the necessary changes would be left behind and undoubtedly lose business to rival
airports. Los Angeles International airport, for example, spent $1.2 billion dollars to construct a
‘new 10-gate terminal to handle international flights using the A380’ and the ‘runways were shifted
further away from the terminals to gain extra room.’ 77
Once the upgrades to runways and taxiways have been completed the next issue is how to deal with
the new logistical problems on the ground around the aircraft apron. Due to the added height and
size of the aircraft, air bridges had to be custom built and baggage handling services had to be
scaled up. This also meant that services inside the airport such as baggage handling areas also had
73 United States Government Accountability Office GAO Report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Aviation,
Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, House of Representatives COMMERCIAL AVIATION Costs and
Major Factors Influencing Infrastructure Changes at U.S. Airports to Accommodate the New A380 Aircraft May 2006
P.17
74 United States Government Accountability Office GAO Report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Aviation,
Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, House of Representatives COMMERCIAL AVIATION Costs and
Major Factors Influencing Infrastructure Changes at U.S. Airports to Accommodate the New A380 Aircraft May 2006
P.19
75 Ashford, Mumayiz, Wright, ‘Airport Engineering 4th Edition – Planning, Design and Development of 21st Century
Airports’ P.96
76 United States Government Accountability Office - Report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Aviation, Committee
on Transportation and Infrastructure, House of Representatives - COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Costs and Major Factors Influencing Infrastructure Changes at U.S. Airports to Accommodate the New A380 Aircraft
May 2006 P.2
77 Wikipedia, ‘Los Angeles Airport http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_International_Airport

29. 29
to be up scaled to meet the increased passenger flows.78 Up to 853 passengers disembarking from
an A380 at one time will put increased pressure on the airside internal infrastructure, such as
baggage handling services, customs and security. Airport forecasting is a key determinant in an
airport authority deciding to invest the required money in developing the infrastructure required to
service the A380. Forecasting is defined as ‘attempting to replicate a future situation based on
historical data, developing patterns and scenarios of future demand for air travel.' Other factors
include the current economic state of the country or region and the historic evidence of how the
industry will perform in the future. Analysing all the relevant factors will allow a forecaster to
‘determine the size, pattern, and characteristics of air travel demand at an airport or region.’79
78 Ashford, Mumayiz, Wright, ‘Airport Engineering 4th Edition – Planning, Design and Development of 21st Century
Airports’ P.98
79 Ashford, Mumayiz, Wright, ‘Airport Engineering 4th Edition – Planning, Design and Development of 21st Century
Airports’ P.21

30. 30
4.2 Larger Aircraft – Modern Technology –Materials and Greater Fuel Efficiency
Emirates airlines have stated that the Airbus A380 can achieve fuel efficiency of up to 3.1 litters per
100 passenger kilometres with fuel efficiency surpassing ‘most modern small cars in terms of fuel
economy per passenger kilometre.’ Emirates also state that ‘with an average fleet age of just over 5
years’ their ‘fuel efficiency and emissions performance is…some 30% ahead of the global average
fleet,’ with their A380s burning ‘up to 20% less fuel per seat than its nearest competitor’. In
addition to the improved engine specifications and aerodynamic and engineering design, the
standards set by the A380 are also due in large part to the introduction of lightweight materials,
such as carbon fibre and glass-reinforced carbon fibre plastics. These new aircraft materials
comprise around 25% of the A380 structure.80
[P.372 Airbus A380 - Aircraft Characteristics –Airport and Maintenance Planning]
Initially composite materials appeared with the use of glass-reinforced plastic in helicopter blades
and radomes and Kevlar in the use of secondary structures in aircraft. A boron fibre composite,
developed in the United States, was the first to ‘possess sufficient strength and stiffness for primary
structures. In recent times these composites have given way to carbon-fibre reinforced plastics
known as composites. Composite materials are defined as consisting of ‘strong fibres, such as glass
or carbon, set in a matrix of plastic or epoxy resin, which is mechanically and chemically
80 Emirates Group, ‘A380 Environmental Facts’
http://www.emiratesgroupcareers.com/english/about/environment/A380_environmental_facts.aspx

31. 31
protective. They are constructed in structural form with ‘two or more sheets sandwiched together to
form a lay-up so that the fibre directions match those of the major loads.81
Carbon fibre reinforced plastics do have some disadvantages. As one aviation author states:
‘It is a brittle material and therefore does not yield plasticity in regions of high stress
concentration. Its strength is reduced by impact damage, which may not be visible, and the epoxy
resin matrices can absorb moisture over a long period, which reduces…its compressive strength;
this effect increases with increase in temperature. Further, the properties of the CFRP are subject
to more random variation than those of metals. All these factors must be allowed for in design.’82
Both Airbus and Boeing have each had a number of teething problems with the application of
composite materials into their aircraft fleet, but in recent times the frequency of problems has
drastically reduced with improved knowledge of the effects of the materials in real world flights as
opposed to flight simulators and computer modelling.
The Airbus A380 is made up predominantly of aluminium which accounts for 61% of the entire
structural materials used in the aircraft. 22% of the craft comprises composites, 5% is titanium, 5%
steel, 3% GLARE, which is the ‘first large-scale use of glass-fibre-reinforced aluminium (GLARE),
a new composite that is 25% stronger than conventional airframe aluminium, but 20% lighter.’83
The remaining 4% is a combination of materials.84 Boeing have also followed suit with their Boeing
787 Dreamliner which comprises 50% composite materials, 20% aluminium, 15% titanium, 10%
steel and the remaining 5% is a mixture of materials.85
The application of composite materials into Boeing and Airbus has resulted in significant fuel
savings for airline operators. Boeing claim that the 787 Dreamliner is 20% more fuel efficient than
competing aircraft of a similar size, with anticipated maintenance savings over the life of the
aircraft estimated to be in the region of 30%.86 These improved figures result in massive savings for
81 Megson.T.H.G, ‘Aircraft Structures for Engineering Students 5th Edition’ P.375
82 Megson.T.H.G, ‘Aircraft Structures for Engineering Students 5th Edition’: P.376
83 Marks, Paul, ‘Aviation – ‘The shape of wings to come’, New Scientist [29/6/2005]
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7552-aviation--the-shape-of-wings-to-come.html?full=true#.U2kVNxJrXCk
84 Total Materia, ‘Aluminium Alloy Development for the Airbus A380’
http://www.keytometals.com/page.aspx?ID=CheckArticle&site=ktn&NM=227
85 Boeing, 787 Family’ http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/787family/programfacts.page
86 Boeing, 787 Family’ http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/787family/programfacts.page

32. 32
an airline operator with a large fleet of aircraft in service, which in turn leads to cheaper prices for
travellers.
4.3 Aircraft Aero-dynamics Improvements
In this section, we will examine a specific aspect of aerodynamic performance called viscous drag,
an area of design highlighted by engineers and designers as the next leap in aviation efficiency that
can be realised to increase operational performance. Viscous drag is the drag or wind resistance
encountered by an aircraft from the laminar flow and turbulence separation which occurs as the
aircraft flies through the air. It accounts for approximately 50% of the total drag encountered by
aircraft in the air and is recognised as the key area where improvements can be made in the future.87
Airbus in collaboration with a host of other aeronautical and aviation industry experts worked
together under a project called KATnet (Key Aerodynamic Technologies for Aircraft Performance
Improvement). These groups were working together to achieve improvements in low speed
performance, high speed performance and active air flow control technologies.88 The high speed
performance areas for targeted improvement were reduced drag, reduced weight and reduced
airframe costs.89 Aerodynamic design has reached such a finely tuned state across multiple areas of
aircraft design that very limited amounts of gain can now be achieved within existing commercial
aircraft design.
Boeing has highlighted a number of the factors contributing to viscous drag for targeted
improvement. One of these is natural laminar flow which is defined as a ‘fluid (gas or liquid) flow
in which the fluid travels smoothly or in regular paths, in contrast to turbulent flow, in which the
fluid undergoes irregular fluctuations and mixing. In laminar flow, sometimes called streamline
flow, the velocity, pressure, and other flow properties at each point in the fluid remain constant.’90
The design of aircraft to maximise the laminar flow around aircraft at subsonic speeds is estimated
87 Schrauf, Geza, , ‘KATnet Key Aerodynamic Technologies for Aircraft Performance Improvement’ Airbus [Fifth
Community Aeronautical Days 2006, Vienna, Austria, 19-21 June 2006] Slide 11
88 Schrauf, Geza, , ‘KATnet Key Aerodynamic Technologies for Aircraft Performance Improvement’ Airbus [Fifth
Community Aeronautical Days 2006, Vienna, Austria, 19-21 June 2006] P.2/3
89 Schrauf, Geza, , ‘KATnet Key Aerodynamic Technologies for Aircraft Performance Improvement’ Airbus [Fifth
Community Aeronautical Days 2006, Vienna, Austria, 19-21 June 2006] P..9
90 Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Laminar Flow’
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/328742/laminar-flow

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by Boeing to be capable of achieving gains of 5-12% in fuel consumption.91 This will add a further
considerable gain to cost savings by airline operators.
Airbus has also developed a new system of surface skin riblets which is the ‘surface structuring of
metallic sheets or foils… which reduce the skin friction drag of an aircraft.’ Airbus state that ‘they
are manufactured either by rolling, embossing or spraying of metallic nano-powders’ that act in a
similar way to a sharks skin travelling through water: it is smooth flowing in the direction being
travelled but rough to feel when going against the flow of a liquid. 92 This allows for an improved
separation control of air passing over the aircraft which ‘offers a reduction in aircraft weight for the
same level of performance’ which improves ‘high lift and control device effectiveness. The
introduction of micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) is also being discussed as means of
achieving greater benefits to the aerodynamic design.93 Micro electro mechanical systems are
defined as ‘miniaturized mechanical and electro-mechanical elements (i.e., devices and structures)
that are made using the techniques of micro fabrication.’ MEMS are effectively ‘miniaturized
structures, sensors, actuators, and microelectronics,’ which are operated by micro sensors and
micro actuators which ‘convert energy from one form to another.’ This allows for rapid and minute
changes in the shape of an aircraft’s leading edge which has allowed researchers to fly aircraft using
only the microminiaturized devices’ without the aid of standard flight control devices.94 The
introduction of such technology, although complex by nature, would allow for the next level of
aerodynamic breakthrough to be achieved.
91 Goldhammer, Mark. Vijgen, Paul, ‘Boeing, 'The next decade in commercial aircraft aerodynamics – A Boeing
Perspective’ [KATnet II Conference on Key Aerodynamic Technologies12 -14 May 2009] P.12
92 Airbus Group, ‘Metallic Riblet Surfaces’
http://www.technology-licensing.com/etl/int/en/What-we-offer/Technologies-for-licensing/Green-
Technologies/Metallic-riblet-surfaces.html
93 KATnet II Consortium, ‘Key Aerodynamic Technologies to meet the Vision 2020 Challenges’ P.4 [June 2010].
94 https://www.memsnet.org/mems/what_is.html

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5. Economic Considerations
It has all happened before. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been
frozen, gold has been confiscated and capital controls have been imposed….This is not a matter of
guesswork, the preconditions are already in place.
(James Rickards, Currency Wars, 2011)95
In the course of this research I encountered a number of pertinent political and financial events that
are shaping the present and may significantly impact our collective future and consequently, the
transport industry. For those who seek to make a living or a profit from the transport industry,
financial instability on a global scale remains a source of serious concern. The absence of a sound
functional economic system still threatens international financial collapse and this is primarily the
result of the precarious state of the Euro, but more so the US Dollar, which remains the world's
reserve currency and many of the world's largest economies are heavily invested in US debt.
There are many indicators that governments and banking institutions worldwide are preparing for
future disturbances in the global banking and financial system. In 2008, US Department of Defence
advisor and Lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies, James Rickards took part in a
seminar, which was held ‘to examine the impact of global financial activities on national security
issues’ in preparation for a financial war game that was to follow.96 In Currency Wars, he argues
that ‘today we are engaged in a new currency war, and another crisis is on its way…The growth in
globalization, derivatives and leverage over the past forty years have made financial panic and
contagion all but impossible to contain.’97 Many of Rickards' predictions made in 2011 have since
proven accurate and have been covered by the international media. The most striking, concerns the
gold reserves of a large number of countries held by the Federal Reserve Bank and the rapid decline
in the value of the dollar and the knock on effects of this on the global economy.
Professor Carroll Quigley of Georgetown University writes that historically “in each country the
power of the central bank rested largely on its control of credit and money supply. In the world as a
whole the power of the central bankers rested very largely on their control of loans and of gold
95 Rickards, James, ‘Currency Wars P.xii [2011]
96 Rickards, James, ‘Currency Wars P.6 [2011]
97 Rickards, James, ‘Currency Wars P.xi [2011]

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flows.’98 In 2013 Germany demanded the repatriation of its gold from the New York Federal
Reserve bank, only to be told by the FED that it ‘it would need until 2020 to be able to accomplish
the transfer.’99 In the modern era of efficient transport there is no plausible reason to delay the
German Gold shipment by six years, unless the gold was being used for other financial purposes.
The German government was refused permission to examine its gold reserves in America for
'security' reasons.100 An article in NSNBC International in January 2014 explained why the
Bundesbank may be exhibiting such a relaxed attitude towards reclaiming their gold: ‘nobody wants
to admit it openly. The German Gold Reserves in the United States are gone, used for financing the
United States war chest and bet for “Global Full Spectrum Dominance”. The danger of permanent
gold backwardation is also highlighted in the article: a ‘consequence would be the inevitable
collapse of global trade and civilization as we know it.’ 101 Gold backwardation means that the
value of currency in the future will be less than that of today.
The US dollar’s supremacy can be traced back to 1941 where according to former Associate Editor
of Fortune magazine, Alvin Toffler, ‘US financial strategists had begun to plan for a post-war
reintegration of the world economy along lines more favourable to the United States.’ This
culminated in the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, which ‘under US leadership, forty-four nations
agreed to set up two key integrative structures – the International Monetary Fund and the World
Bank.102 Toffler elaborated on how the IMF essentially forced its signatory members to “peg their
currency to the American dollar or to gold – most of which was held by the United States. (By 1948,
the United States possessed 72 percent of the whole worlds gold reserves.) The IMF thus fixed the
basic relationships of the major world currencies.” An inbuilt mechanism for control of global
currencies was “a rule that prohibited the World Bank from making loans to any other country than
refused to join the IMF or to abide by the GATT (General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade).” This
allowed the United States, and the corporations based there to gain a huge competitive advantage
over other nations and industry competitors. Toffler explained how it all worked when he said that;
“this system made it difficult for debtors of the United States to reduce their obligations through
currency or tariff manipulations. It strengthened the competitiveness of US industry in world
98 Professor Quigley, Carroll, Tragedy & Hope – A History of the World in Our Time P.950 [1967]
99 Dr. Xinming, Long, ‘Federal Reserve Refuses to Submit to an Audit of Germany’s Gold Held in U.S. Vaults’,
NSNBC International [18/4/2013]
http://nsnbc.me/2013/04/18/federal-reserve-refuses-to-submit-to-an-audit-of-germanys-gold-held-in-u-s-vaults-2/
100 http://nsnbc.me/2013/04/18/federal-reserve-refuses-to-submit-to-an-audit-of-germanys-gold-held-in-u-s-vaults-2/
101 Lehmann, Christof, ‘Mystery about Germany´s Gold in the US Solved’, NSNBC International
http://nsnbc.me/2013/07/31/mystery-about-germany´s-gold-in-the-us-solved/ [31/7/2013]
102 Alvin Toffler, ‘The Third Wave’, P.105 Pan Books [1980]

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markets. And it gave the industrial powers, and especially the United States, a strong influence on
economic planning in many First Wave (3rd world) countries, even after they had attained political
independence.103
The old world financial order is currently threatened by the move away from the dollar as a world
reserve currency, with the emergence of the alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South
Africa (BRICS nations) coming together to operate outside the dollar, the World Bank and IMF
system. While the West is heavily indebted, the ‘emerging market economies have become the
creditor nations of the world.’ Conversely, this means that their fortunes rest on the repayment of
loans from Western nations, particularly the U.S. These countries have created a BRICS
Development Bank that is poised to grow stronger, but this growth is still heavily reliant on the
dollar. The international monetary system requires all trading countries to settle their foreign trades
in US dollars, thus requiring them to keep a reserve of US dollars at all times for international trade.
However, the dollar is now in decline as these BRIC nations are opting out of the International
SWIFT payment system.104 The decline in sovereign reserve holdings of US dollars is evident in
the significant drop since 1999, when the US dollar accounted for 71% of central bank reserves, to
the current level of 54%. This change, in addition to the practice of quantitative easing by the
Federal Reserve is gradually destroying the dollar, the cornerstone currency of the world's
economy.105 In recent years, substantial foreign holdings of US treasuries are being sold by China
and Russia. Without major nations such as China and Russia buying US treasuries, the dollar
appears doomed, as James Rickaards explains that ‘the whole pyramid of global finance is based on
one simple fact – financial regulators around the world, buy the US debt (dollars and treasuries) no
matter what.’106 One analyst even stated that China’s “move to offload some of its 3.5 trillion in US
dollar reserves” poses “a mortal threat to the American petrodollar and the entire American
economy.”107 Incredibly, one of the largest buyers of US debt in recent times is Belgium, a fact that
puts the Eurozone at further risk of financial collapse.108 Upon closer scrutiny though, it simply
103 Toffler, P.105
104 IFG Corporate Consultants,‘Investors Pay Attention!Power, Money & Influence are Moving From West to East’
http://www.ifg.ie/content/media-and-news/weekly-investment-updates/13-06-
17/Investors_Pay_Attention_Power_Money_Influence_are_Moving_From_West_to_East.aspx
105 The Federal Reserve of New York describes quantitative easing as an ‘easing of financial conditions through the
lowering of long-term interest rates,’ but is more accurately defined as ‘a program of printing money to spur growth.
James Rickards – Currency Wars (2011) P.xii
106Alexeev, Igor, ‘China plans to reduce its holdings of the US dollar’, NSNBC International
http://nsnbc.me/2013/12/03/china-plans-reduce-holdings-us-dollar/ [3/12/2013]
107 PressTV, ‘China plan to quit dollar infuriates US: Analyst’
http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/12/01/337686/china-plan-to-quit-dollar-infuriates-us/
108 U.S. Treasury, ‘Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities’ [2013-2014]

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cannot be Belgium alone that is buying so many US treasuries. They simply would not be able to
afford the huge numbers being bought. One would have to conclude that Belgiums purchases are
really being done on behalf of the EU. Ironically, the IMF’s global financial stability report has
highlighted in the European Union context that ‘further progress in the euro area’s transition from
fragmentation to robust integration’ is necessary for financial stability.109 This advice would appear
unsound in the current situation.
The Eurozone is already in a precarious situation. In the recent past, the ECB, through a ‘long term
financing operation’, introduced over a trillion euros into the Eurozone through the respective
banks in different countries, in the hope that this would encourage lending to increase in the region.
However, this money was primarily used to bail out banks whose balance sheets were in serious
trouble and it quickly disappeared from circulation.110
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
109 International Monetary Fund, ‘Global Financial Stability Report’
http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2014/01/index.htm
110 Yueh, Linda, ‘Will quantitative easing in the Eurozone continue the era of cheap money?’ BBC News
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26879990 [4/4/2014]

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The IMF were quoted by CNBC as stating that ‘the Western world is so broke that it will require
defaults, governments' imposition of a "savings tax" on private wealth and other harsh measures to
recover from one of the most perilous economic times in modern history. It continues that
‘government gross debt to GDP ratios in 2014 is forecast to be 95.3 percent for the euro area, and
109.2 percent for the United States.’111 These levels of debt are unsustainable and something must
give. The Wall St Journal recently conducted a survey of industry leaders about their sentiments for
the near future. Almost 100% of respondents agreed that America and the world economy is
heading for a crash sometime in 2014.112 This negative outlook is supported by the actions of the
Chinese, who downgraded US debt in November of 2013, a move S&P seemed unwilling to
propose.113
The transport industry is dependent upon having a large global customer base who can afford to
travel and pay for the movement of goods and services. In a 2012 paper jointly released by the Bank
of England and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (U.S.) they state that; ‘in anticipation of
the further powers that will be provided by the European Recovery and Resolution Directive and
the domestic reforms that implement the recommendations of the U.K. Independent Commission on
Banking. Such a strategy would involve the bail-in (write down or conversion) of creditors at the
top of the group in order to restore the whole group to solvency.114
In other words, if you are a saver and have positive net wealth, your wealth may be subject to
confiscation in order to keep the privately owned banking system afloat. Such actions, if carried out
simultaneously across the world, could have disastrous consequences upon consumers and a direct
knock-on effect upon the transport industry.
The future of the transport industry, and the airline industry in particular, will inevitably suffer a
massive downswing in revenue should such an event occur. The airline industry is well run and
professionally managed, however, global economic problems lie completely outside of its control
and remain a concern without the existence of a sound monetary system. The horrendous state of
111 Morgan, John, ‘Harvard Economists to IMF: Global Government Debt Is the Worst in 200 Years
http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/IMF-debt-Rogoff-Reinhart/2014/01/03/id/545071#ixzz2ybUSWfRl
112 Farrell, Paul B, ‘New doomsday poll: 99.9% risk of 2014 crash’, The Wall Street Journal,Market Watch
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-doomsday-poll-999-risk-of-2014-crash-2014-03-15 [17/3/2014]
113 Mourdoukoutas,Panos,‘China Downgrades US Debt: Should Investors Care?’ [17/10/2013]
http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/10/17/china-downgrades-us-debt-should-investors-care/
114 A joint paper by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England, ‘Resolving Globally Active,
Systemically Important, Financial Institutions’ P.2 [10/12/2012]

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bankrupt financial institutions and the unsustainable debt of nations are a real and formidable
challenge faced by businesses and private individuals at present.
6. The Environment - Political Considerations and Scenarios
“Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in history…When people come to know what the
truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” –
Dr. Kiminori Itoh, Japanese scientist and former member of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change.115
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proven itself wrong
time and time again over the last two decades. Climatologist Dr. Richard Keen relates that global
temperatures in 2007 were ‘the coldest in a decade and the coldest of the millennium…which is why
global warming is now called climate change.’116 This reality is having a serious effect on energy
prices on Western economies, which are doing considerably more to cut back their CO2 output than
Third world and developing world nations. Despite the huge effort at reducing CO2 output in the
West, the levels worldwide have still increased considerably since the 1990s. The chart below
measuring CO2 levels in the atmosphere was compiled by Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii.117
115 U. S. Senate Minority Report, ‘More Than 700 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming
Claims’
http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2674e64f-802a-23ad-
490b-bd9faf4dcdb7
116 http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2674e64f -802a-
23ad-490b-bd9faf4dcdb7
117 http://co2now.org

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The authors on the website that provides this information are certain that climate change is real, and
is being driven by an increase in CO2 emissions. The graph indicates that a sharp rise in CO2 in the
atmosphere is occurring, but many remain sceptical as to whether or not it is it really affecting the
earth’s temperature. On the chart below, taken from the UK’s MET Office, it is quite apparent that
the rise in CO2 levels which are thought to cause global warming do not correlate to a rise in
temperature. A .07 degree Celsius rise in temperature levels over a 15 year period is considered
inconsequential by many, or simply explained as normal natural variance. These graphs
demonstrate that there is no direct correlation between the MET office's temperature figures and the
rise in CO2 globally. The levels of CO2 figures on the CO2now website can be corroborated also
through NASA’s recent and past database online.118
118 NASA, ‘Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network’ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

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An article in a 2007 edition of the National Geographic showed evidence of a decline in the ice cap
on the planet Mars at the same time that the ice caps in the South Pole and North Pole of earth
declined. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo
Astronomical Observatory in Russia, concluded that ‘the Mars data is evidence that the current
global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun,’ with relatively little impact
coming from human interference in the natural cycles.119 The author of the article, Kate Rivilious
attempts to discredit Abdussamatov’s conclusions of the sun's impact on the earth, citing the IPCC
as her source. There have been multiple unreported resignations by top scientists from the IPCC
over the years that made claims about the falsification of data and the political motivations behind
the climate change scare mongering. Professor Chris Landsea for example quit over the linking of
the busy 2004 hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming
despite no concrete evidence existing that linked the two. He reports his disgust that his colleagues
would use the media to support an unproven claim, and eventually resigned. He concluded by
saying; ‘I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both
119 Ravilious, Kate, ‘Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says’ National Geographic
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html [28/2/2007]

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being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound.’120 Professor
Landsea’s conclusion is supported by a document published in 1991 titled 'The First Global
Revolution' by the Club of Rome, a research collaborator with the United Nations and one of its
elite think tanks.121 The document states:
'In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that
pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill.'122
The membership list of the Club of Rome is quite an impressive line-up of past presidents of many
countries, including multiple ambassadors, diplomats and UN representatives.123 This quote
supports the argument that the climate change agenda is perhaps a cynical political tool being
utilised to control and tax the people of the world. In An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore predicted that
sea levels were going to rise drastically all over the world and that the polar ice caps would be gone
by 2013 with devastating effects for humanity.124 Surprisingly, Gore bought a luxury beach front
property in Malibu California in 2010.125 According to The Daily Mail and a number of other
sources, this movie can now only be shown in British schools after the student audience has been
informed of the multiple factual scientific errors and bias in the movie after a high court judgement
in 2007.126
120 Landsea, Charles, ‘Chris Landsea leaves IPCC’, University of Colorado
http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html
121 United Nations, ‘United States Association of the Club of Rome’
http://www.unglobalcompact.org/participant/17274-United-States-Association-of-the-Club-of-Rome
122 King, Alexander. Schneider, Bertrand, ‘The First Global Revolution A Report by The Club of Rome’. P.75
[Published by Pantheon Books in 1991]
123 Club of Rome, ‘Honorary Members’ http://www.clubofrome.org/?cat=52&paged=2
124 Driscoll, Ed, , ‘Yet Anotherfinal Countdown Expires’, PJ Media
http://pjmedia.com/eddriscoll/2013/12/14/yet-another-final-countdown-expires/ [14/12/2013]
125Koch, Wendy,‘How green is Al Gore's $9 million Montecito oceanfront villa?’ USA Today
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/05/how-green-is-al-gores-9-million-montecito-ocean-
front-villa/1#.U0QnzhJrXCk [18/5/2010]
126 UK Daily Mail, ‘Schools Must Warn of Gore climate film bias’ [3/10/2007]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-485336/Schools-warn-Gore-climate-film-bias.html

43. 43
[Source of Photo: http://www.isciencetimes.com/articles/6040/20130911/global-cooling-arctic-ice-cap-60-photo.htm]
Gore was not alone in his incorrect assertions that the ice caps would disappear by 2013. The BBC
also covered a story in 2007 that described this exact scenario that Arctic summers would be ice
free by 2013.127 The Daily Mail highlighted that the BBC was exposed by a pensioner in the UK
through a freedom of information request of having a secret ‘green propaganda’ training
programme for its top executives which impacted on a broad range of the BBC's output. They also
spent £20,000 on legal fees in an attempt to suppress this information.128
The number of examples of politicians making controversial claims about the climate never ceases.
In a recent example, British PM David Cameron stated that the recent flooding that occurred on the
Somerset levels in England was as a result of climate change.129 He was quickly rebuked by the
127 Amos, Jonathan,‘Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013', BBC News
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm [12/12/2007]
128 Rose, David, ‘BBC's six-year cover-up of secret 'green propaganda'training for top executives’, Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537886/BBCs-six-year-cover-secret-green-propaganda-training-
executives.html [11/1/2014]
129Cohen, Tamara, ‘Storms which battered Britain are linked to climate change,says David Cameron as Siberian snow
is set to hit the country’, Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2535915/Storms-battered-Britain-linked-climate-change-David-Cameron-
claims.html [8/1/2014]

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UK's MET Office which stated that Cameron’s assertions were not supported by scientific fact.130
Nevertheless, such statements have a significant impact upon the minds of the public and lead to
support for further legislation on the area of climate change. One news source claimed that the
flooding problems started in 1996 when a new environment agency took control of managing
Britain’s rivers. Since they took over, the dredging of the rivers has dramatically reduced year on
year. Additionally ‘scores of pumping stations which carry water to the rivers were being
neglected. And although the drainage boards were still allowed to operate, their work was now
being seriously hampered by a thicket of new EU waste regulations, zealously enforced by the
EA.’131 The result of these conditions resulted in a large build-up of silt in the river and drainage
systems which had once worked effectively. It appears to be a deliberate hoax to convince people
that climate change is the problem.
In more recent times, environmentalist groups are seeking to oust political and other influential
figures they term ‘climate change deniers’. The Green Party of Wales and England stated that ‘any
senior adviser refusing to accept "the scientific consensus on climate change" should be sacked.’132
Without elaborating too much it should be pointed out that science was never about consensus, it is
about demonstrating provable fact. There was once consensus in the world that the earth was flat. It
didn’t make it correct. This coincides with numerous revelations concerning cover-ups taking place
within the UN's IPCC that hide the fact that the earth’s temperature has not risen for the last fifteen
years.133 It is the elephant in the room that the IPCC chooses to ignore.
In January 2013, Forbes published an article detailing the political objectives that underlie the
climate change agenda. They gathered and presented data concerning the agreements that were
signed up to in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, in which the signatory countries agreed to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels. In short, the article concluded that despite numerous
pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions, only the EU has met its targets and the vast majority of
nations have increased their emissions considerably. Sadly the cost to Europe has been the export of
130 Edgar, James, ‘Prime Minister climate change opinion not backed up by science, says Met Office’, The Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/10560734/Prime-Minister-climate-change-opinion-not-backed-up-by-science-says-
Met-Office.html [9/1/2014]
131Booker. Christopher, ‘Revealed: how green ideology turned a deluge into a flood’, The Spectator
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9137131/instant-wildlife-just-add-water/ [15/2/2014]
132 Hawkins, Ross, ‘Greens call for clear-out of 'climate change deniers', BBC News
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26187711 [14/2/2014]
133 Cohen, Tamara, ‘World's top climate scientists told to 'cover up' the fact that the Earth's temperature hasn't risen for
the last 15 years’. Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2425775/Climate-scientists-told-cover-fact-Earths-temperature-risen-15-
years.html

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industrial production abroad to escape cap and trade cost penalties associated with the carbon
trading economy at a time when Europe needs high paying skilled jobs more than ever. The Kyoto
Protocol was based upon evidence provided by the UN's IPCC, which many argue, and demonstrate
has been being systematically falsifying its information. Dr Frederick Seitz, a former president of
the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, wrote in the Wall St Journal in reference to an IPCC
climate change report in 1996 that ‘I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer
review process than events that led to this IPCC report.’134 In the same article, former French
president Jacques Chirac was quoted in reference to the Kyoto agreement saying that ‘for the first
time, humanity is instituting a genuine instrument of global governance, one that should find a
place within the World Environmental Organization which France and the European Union would
like to see established.135
In a 2010 interview with Germany’s NZZ online, IPCC member Ottmar Edonhofer made the
following comments on the Cancun climate summit in 2010 saying; ‘it’s a big mistake to discuss
climate policy separately from the major themes of globalization…one must say clearly that we
redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy.’136 Former Soviet Premier Mikhail
Gorbachev famously stated in 1996 that ‘the threat of environmental crisis will be the international
disaster key that will unlock the New World Order. 137 UN climate Chief Christiana Figueres was
quoted in January 2014 stating that Communist China is the best model for fighting global
warming.138 It is not a stretch of the imagination to think that Gorbachev’s ‘New World Order’ is
going to be communist in outlook, much like the rhetoric we see coming from the UN.
The worrying trend at present does not appear to be global warming, but rather the crippling
legislation being implemented by governments and agencies around the world to tackle a problem
that probably does not exist, except in the fudged reports and computer models of the IPCC. This
legislation may have a direct and substantial impact on the airline industry. In a document funded
by the EU and published in 2011 called 'Scenarios for a One Planet Economy in Europe', it states
that ‘in 2050 Europeans are forced to adopt green lifestyle habits – for example, via bans on non-
134 Bell, Larry, ‘The U.N.'s Global Warming War On Capitalism: An Important History Lesson’, Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/01/22/the-u-n-s-global-warming-war-on-capitalism-an-important-history-
lesson-2/3/ [22/1/2013]
135 http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/01/22/the-u-n-s-global-warming-war-on-capitalism-an-important-
history-lesson-2/3/
136 http://blog.heritage.org/2010/11/19/climate-talks-or-wealth-redistribution-talks/
137 Brannan, Marilyn, ‘A Special Report: The Wildland’s Project Unleashes Its War on Mankind’, Monetary &
Economic Review P.5 http://blog.heritage.org/2010/11/19/climate-talks-or-wealth-redistribution-talks/ [1996]
138 Bastasch,Michael, ‘UN climate chief: Communism is best to fight global warming’, The Daily Caller [15/1/2014]
http://dailycaller.com/2014/01/15/un-climate-chief-communism-is-best-to-fight-global-warming/

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essential individual long distance travel. By this stage, air travel has long been too expensive for
the majority of people. The state controls or heavily influences all available channels of education,
media and marketing to spread this message to continually reinforce its adoption and mould
perceptions of sustainability.’139
The banning of non-essential long distance travel would decimate the commercial airline industry,
with the loss of hundreds of millions of jobs worldwide and result in people being trapped in their
respective countries. This theoretical scenario is based upon the assumption that global warming is
real. Big business and politics are driving the climate change agenda, and it is therefore prudent to
consider such EU funded studies in a serious manner. The same document also stated that ‘“by
2020, most media outlets were tightly controlled by the government and used to try to manage
behaviour change, selling the “cool to play within the limits” and “green means growth”
messages.”140 In December 2013 this message was promoted in Ireland’s broadsheet The Irish
Times with the headline ‘economic growth will be a thing of the past unless we take the green
route’. The journalist Eddie O’ Connor writes that economic growth rates of 3% or 4% per annum
have become a thing of the past in the developed economies,’ but neglects to inform his readers why
so many high paying manufacturing jobs have left the European economy, and will not be
returning. The primary reason for this is the cap and trade carbon agreements highlighted earlier
which allows for global wealth re-distribution, which factually could be described as a form of
global communism. O'Connor naively argues that ‘everything that either emits carbon or wastes
energy will have to be replaced’.141 I wonder what Eddie thinks he exhales? This belief system will
result in economic hardship through an ever increasing carbon taxation regulated existence.
Ireland and the rest of the EU signed up to the agreements in 2010 under the Cancun agreement in
Mexico. A future scenario based upon this agreement is that if ‘industrialized countries were to use
carbon taxes or auctioned emissions permits to reach the GHG emission targets they pledged in the
Cancun Agreements, they could raise as much as 0.6 per cent of their GDP or about US $250
billion in revenues per year by 2020 (OECD 2012).’ 142 Instead, wealth is being redistributed from
139 Ecologic Institute Berlin, Sustainable Europe Research Institute Vienna, ‘Scenarios for A One Planet Economy in
Europe’ P.38 http://www.ecologic.eu/4294 [July 2011]
140 http://www.ecologic.eu/4294 Scenarios for A One Planet Economy in Europe P.35
141O' Connor, Eddie, ‘Economic Growth will be a thing of the past unless we take the green route’, The Irish Times
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/economic-growth-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past-unless-we-take-the-green-
route-1.1632148 [19/12/2013]
142 United Nations, ‘Working towards a Balanced and Inclusive Green Economy: A United Nations System-wide
Perspective Introduction’[Foreword Publication]

47. 47
the West to the East under environmental treaties. This controversial and scientifically dubious
theory of climate change remains a major obstacle to economic recovery in Europe and the rest of
the Western world. It remains to be seen how it will impact upon the transport industry, and
particularly, the aviation sector over the coming decades. However, it seems unlikely that the airline
industry will escape the consequences of such widespread global pacts concerning the provably
false doctrine of climate change.
Conclusion
The Airline industry has continued to grow from strength to strength over the decades through
boom and bust cycles. The numbers I have shown being projected by some of the major players in
the industry all point to a continuation of the growth of the industry moving forward. Aircraft are
becoming ever larger and more fuel efficient while still able to travel long haul flights all over the
world in a safer and quieter fashion, in a market that continually gets larger and more competitive.
The airline industry is one of the most innovative and exciting areas looking towards the future. The
planned methodology for increasing traffic flows to unseen or unheard of levels is workable and is
in the process of being implemented all around the world right now. Procedures are slowly
changing and new and improved technologies are allowing ever more bold means of increasing the
air traffic in the skies of the world. The ICAO along with the many aviation companies and regional
aviation authorities are working hard to achieve the planned upgrades of the modern aviation
system in a coordinated fashion globally while at the same time trying to minimize disruption to the
existing infrastructure and operations taking place.
Not since the 1960’s when Yuri Gargarin became the first man to leave the earth’s atmosphere have
human beings been so excited about space travel. With the dawn of space tourism comes a new
niche market that a number of private enterprises have seized the opportunity to become leaders in.
While space tourism is highly expensive and really only for the rich right now, it will presumably
get cheaper as time goes on. The same was true of the aviation industry in its early days. As time
moved on and standards and economies of scale improved air transport became more and more
affordable to the average person. I suspect the space tourism industry will act in a similar fashion,
http://www.unemg.org/index.php/working-towards-a-balanced-and-inclusive-green-economy-a-united-nations-system-
wide-perspective Working towards a Balanced and Inclusive Green Economy: A United Nations System-wide
Perspective Introduction Pdf. P.15

48. 48
although it is questionable if not doubtful that it will become cheap enough for the average worker
in the short to medium term. That being said it promises a lot and is one to watch.
While I talked at length about the infrastructure and technology changes associated with bigger
aircraft, improved aerodynamics and the changes to airport terminals all around the world, there is a
cloud of uncertainty that hangs over the industry and the ability of the general public to participate
in it as we move into the future. That cloud or the biggest threat to the industry is without question
the environmental movement and in particular their fixation on man-made global warming. It
appears that the facts on the subject don’t matter to politicians and lawmakers who are continually
legislating harder and harder to crack down on a problem that I have proven is based around
politics, not science. The horrendous state of the economies of the world is a bigger threat in the
short to medium turn, but taking a long term view the environmental movement is making waves
that could put the shackles on the average person’s ability to travel on affordable air transport. It is a
serious concern that one would hope policy makers wake up to.
All that being said, I remain optimistic about people becoming more and more aware of the facts
behind the non-existent global warming agenda, and in turn forcing policy makers to see sense. If
this happens then the future is bright for the innovative minds looking to make the next big
breakthrough in aviation standards, procedures and technologies.

49. 49
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