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The Impact of Covid-19 on Aviation

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Marina Kuznechevskaya, International Aviation Expert and Member of Advisory board of IATA Cargo and Passenger committees is Guest Speaker for CILT international webinar on Wednesday 15th July 2020.

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The Impact of Covid-19 on Aviation

  1. 1. ciltinternational.org1 Covid-19 Best Practice Response
  2. 2. ciltinternational.org2 Covid-19 Best Practice Response COVID-19 impact on aviation Marina Kuznechevskaya F.C.L.T
  3. 3. ciltinternational.org3 Covid-19 Best Practice Response Current situation IATA predicted that a total of $200 billion in global government support may be needed. Overall from 52 to 42 % reduction of the seats Overall reduction from 2 947 to 2 369 to passengers Approx. from 390 to 316 B. USD dollar losses of gross operating revenue of World’s airlines Tourism-loses 1170 to 910 trillion in expected revenue Global economy projected -4.9 to 5,2 %
  4. 4. ciltinternational.org4 Covid-19 Best Practice Response Who I am Marina Kuznechevskaya F.C.I.L.T Aviation and Supply chain expert IATA Central Asia -Member of advisory board Cargo and Passenger committee 2014- current -Director general flydubai airline in Kazakhstan 2011-2014 GEFCO (Automotive and Industrial Logistics) Commercial Director Kazakhstan and Central Asia 2002-2011 Schenker DB- Airfreight and Project Manager Kazakhstan and Central Asia
  5. 5. ciltinternational.org5 Covid-19 Best Practice Response What is behind the numbers: 1. Airlines are still struggling with the debts (tickets return, payments to service providers) 2. Corporate restrictions for any transactions. Cash flow deficit. 3. Some State organizations from different countries are officially going to court against airlines. 4. Airlines are fully depending on local Governments decisions, Health organizations Global and Local. Service must be adjusted to various countries regulations. 5. New SLOT requirements for the re opening the routes- Ministry of Health and International affairs are involved. 6. Each “confirmed to be open” destination can be banned 24 hours before the flights 7. Uncertainty with re- opening destinations, possibly only 10% of high revenue routs will be opened in 2020 8. Local offices are always on in non-stop process of negotiations with State regulators, airports and touristic organizations 9. Cost saving mode- new smaller offices, cut jobs, lost Key account clients, lost conferences and exhibitions clients and business sector 10. Airports- demanding on price increase/ Airlines are trying to negotiate 3 months post payments with the 40% discounts
  6. 6. ciltinternational.org6 Covid-19 Best Practice Response Airports affected by COVID-19 Projected estimates 2020 vs 2019 Passengers Airport revenue -50% -97% To 4.6 billions To 97.4 billions Airport revenue Q1-Q2 2020 fell Q1 Q2 35% 14 billions 90% 39 billions Problems: 1) Most of is asking for the 30%-50% discount for the ground handling and post payment due to critical financial situation. Airports are unable to accept such requests 2) 70-90% of airport employees were made redundant or sent to unpaid partially paid leave during quarantine ( reservation agents, ground handling agents border control etc) 2) Cargo agents and cargo charters team – cut by 30% 3) Most the airport employees who are still at the front line are diagnosed with COVID-19 4) Many airlines postponed payments for march until the end of quarantine 3) Not all the airports will receive help from the Government, private owned airports may look for the Bank credits 4) DUTY FREE SHOPS are in critical situation, potential recover mid 2022 5) Catering companies are either bankrupt or at paused mode. Cleaning companies are re considering COVID -19 standards=price increase
  7. 7. ciltinternational.org7 Covid-19 Best Practice Response Airline Job cuts IATA, is forecasting that the world’s airlines will lose more than $84bn and one MILLION JOBS this year  Airline job cuts up to around 70,000—and more will surely come. 30% are pilots, crew and airport handling teams  Boeing- 100,000 jobs in the sector  Current salary cut is 30% and for 50% for TOP management, no 2019 bonuses  70% of employees are sent to distance job  Due to very specific experience this is the fact that former airlines employees are in very fragile situation. Almost impossible  To find another job via State job centers.  During quarantine Airline’s representative offices in different countries was sent to non- paid leave  Representative offices - job cut is around 30-50 % not included in official statistics ______________________ How to survive: 1. Some governments are offering 6 months support for the former airline employees 2. IATA and ICAO offers free or special price trainings for to “get new qualification” in other sectors of Supply chain 3. Possible to find job in local touristic organizations-- the only one “blooming” sector now Airline Cut jobs Employees British airways 12000 42000 Emirates Group 30 000 plus 9000 105000 *American Airlines 5 000 129 000 SAS 5000 12 500 Norwegian Air 4700 11 000 Easy jet 4500 11 200 United Airlines 3500 95 000 Virgin Atlantic 3150 95000 Rayanair 3000 17500 Virgin Atlantic 3150 8500 Virgin Australia 2000 10600 Lufthansa** 20% 125 000 * US airlines will make cut off in Sept **LH agreed on 9.8 USD billion bailout with the German Gov
  8. 8. ciltinternational.org8 Covid-19 Best Practice Response CARGO Airlines transport over 52 million metric tons of goods a year, representing more than 35% of global trade by value but less than 1% of world trade by volume. That is equivalent to $6.8 trillion worth of goods annually, or $18.6 billion worth of goods Half of the cargo was transported by passenger airplanes –belly loading March air cargo volume fell 28%, belly cargo fell 97% Currently loses approx 15,3 % compare to 2019 (IATA) _______________ Average pre - COVID price – 3.63 USD/kg increased 65 % from March Cargo flow fell 15 % from March Pharmaceutical goods –volume doubled _______________ Airlines started to carry cargo in cabin Passenger aircrafts are transformed into cargo planes, possibly 1/3 fleet will be adjusted to cargo Collaboration with logistic providers (Icelandair and Schenker) Shanghai-Munich
  9. 9. ciltinternational.org9 Covid-19 Best Practice Response Q2-2020 Air capacity declined 27% compare 2019 Asia Pacific – Europe declines by -34%. The Transatlantic remains -50% lower than last year. North America to Latin America cargo capacity decreased by only 8%. Positive impact:  Cargo may become a core business for the airlines. High yield demand cargo  1/3 of the passenger fleet will be converted into cargo planes  More specific air cargo companies will be opened in next 2 years  Air cargo organization and Air alliance will collaborate with logistic providers who can lead the sales and strategy  New potentials for the smaller airports as Cargo HUBs with cargo friendly infrastructure
  10. 10. ciltinternational.org10 Covid-19 Best Practice Response Passengers Main questions: • Is it safe to be on board during few hours flight? • Should I be Covid negative before travel? • What will happen to me if I will get COVID in a country of arrival? • Is it reasonable to have 3 or 14 days quarantine before and after arrival?
  11. 11. ciltinternational.org11 Covid-19 Best Practice Response May 2020- 100% world destination had travel restrictions 85% of destinations have completely or partially closed their borders 5% have suspended completely or partially int flights _______ Opening for visitors: UAE, Turkey, Croatia, Thailand, Japan, Norway, Georgia, Estonia, Japan, South Korea, Egypt Algeria, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, Tunisia and Uruguay are slowly opening for visitors __________ Rules and COVID regulations for the passengers and airline safety instructions are changing almost on daily basis Main risks: 1. Country can be closed in 24 hours, international flight banned- tourists are quarantine at they own expenses until repatriation flight 2. New unexpected quarantine regulation 3. Airlines will refund you with the voucher.
  12. 12. ciltinternational.org12 Covid-19 Best Practice Response New rules for travelers COVID-19 Regulations and instruction for the passengers are changing almost on daily basis. Its started with obligatory COVID negative test and test on arrival (average price 30 USD) Tourists are required to wear a face-mask during the inbound flight, as well as in the airport. Any tourist not wearing a mask will be denied entry.  Travelers agree to a health screening and temperature check.  COVID test upon arrival in UAE, Turkey  Health Declaration Form (before or upon arrival)  Special App (UAE) tracing your activity during your stay (UAE)  Quarantine -14 days upon arrival (self paid)  In case you have COVID -19 all costs are paid by tourist  Country might be locked down any time, as it happened with Kazakhstan  Once in country of arrival, the wearing of face-masks in public spaces is mandatory for many cities
  13. 13. ciltinternational.org13 Covid-19 Best Practice Response What to expect before vaccine will be presented 1. Uncertainty with the Safety COVID regulations- additional costs for the passengers, Airlines- disinfection, new uniform, new standards 2. Possible ticket price increase – back to “air flights are only for rich people” 3. Additional pressure to airlines with non -stable schedule and non predictable Operational Schedule 4. Small airports might be closed if there no new domestic routes or cargo flows/ 5. New Air alliances- some routes will be to low cost operators.
  14. 14. ciltinternational.org14 Covid-19 Best Practice Response CILT opportunity to be known and recognized as a place for best practice • Remain Focused on Fundamentals: Safety, Security, and Efficiency • Promote Public Health and Confidence among Passengers, Aviation Workers, and the General Public • Recognize Aviation as a Driver of Economic Recovery • CILT can become an independent consultant for Civil Aviation Authorities and Ministers of Transport • CILT trainings for Cargo aviation's departments • CILT trainings for Handling agents
  15. 15. ciltinternational.org15 Covid-19 Best Practice Response
  16. 16. ciltinternational.org16 Covid-19 Best Practice Response Thank You

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