Air Cargo Market Dynamics 2022

4/4/2022
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Confidential.
4/4/2022
Confidential.
Seabury Cargo
April 2022
AirCargoMarketDynamics
2022Q1
More insights, better decisions

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Key themes of Seabury’s 2022 Q1 Market Dynamics report
▪ Air cargo capacity is down
~5% on 2019 levels
▪ Freighter capacity remains
up, with the parking of
Russian aircraft offset by
deliveries and conversions
▪ Belly capacity declines are
mostly the result of fewer
active passenger aircraft
▪ Airline schedules show
strong growth of belly air
cargo capacity this
summer, to -28% of 2019
(summer 2021: -49%)
▪ After a strong post-COVID
rebound, consumer
confidence has fallen to
“Financial crisis” levels…
▪ …with worries over inflation
driven by energy and
transport prices
▪ Forward-looking indicators
for the air cargo industry are
reverting back to neutral
o PMI / CLI
o US inventory-to-sales ratio
▪ Global air trade demand in
2021 was up +7% on 2019
▪ On top of that, air trade in
Jan ’22 was up +8% YoY
▪ Transpacific trade accounts
for ~50% of this increase
▪ Large differences exist
between industries
o Chemicals demand spurred by
COVID testing kits
o High tech continues to thrive,
largely due to smartphones
o Automotive shows a YoY
decrease after a strong 2021
▪ Despite capacity slowly
catching up with demand..
▪ .. load factors (+11p.p.) and
yields are still significantly
up on 2019 levels
▪ The war in Ukraine has had
strong local trade lane
effects on capacity ..
▪ .. but also impacts the
global industry through
higher fuel prices, which
reached levels last seen in
the 2008 financial crisis
Demand/supply
remain out of sync
Capacity may exceed
2019 levels in 2022
Demand is strong, but
shows large variations
Warning signs in the
near-term outlook

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Contents
Demand / Supply imbalances
Air cargo demand
Air cargo capacity
Short-term air cargo outlook

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Despite air cargo capacity recovering, air cargo’s demand/
supply balance is still fundamentally different vs. pre-COVID
Notes: International demand only; FTK & ATK data based on IATA Carrier Tracker CTK and ACTK, respectively;
Source: IATA Monthly Traffic Results, Accenture analysis (March 2022)
Continuous demand and supply imbalance keeps load factors ~10 percentage
points above pre-COVID levels
35
0
10
5
15
20
25
30
Billion FTKs/ATKs FTK/ATK (%)
48
52
56
60
64
68 +11 p.p.
.. and resulting international load factors
Global international air cargo traffic and capacity..
Actuals
Trend
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
1 Whilst air traffic (in
FTKs) now exceeds
2019 levels..
.. air cargo capacity (in
ATKs) is still recovering
to 2019 levels ..
2
.. causing continued
elevation of air cargo
load factors
3

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COVID impact
Dollar per kilogram
Monthly average yields by trade lane, 2015-2022
Air cargo rates showed some easing in early 2022, but new disturbances
(e.g. Ukraine war, lockdowns) are likely to further affect rates
Continued distortion of air cargo’s demand-supply balance
means rates are still significantly up on pre-COVID levels
Note: Transatlantic yields based on “FRA – North America”, Transpacific yields based on “HKG – North America”, Asia-Europe yields based on “HKG – Europe”
Source: Baltic exchange airfreight index, obtained via Air Cargo News, Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
Jan-22
Jul-17 Jan-21
Jan-19 Jan-20
Jul-18
Jan-17 Jan-18 Jul-21
Jul-19
$6.00/kg
Jul-20
$4.00/kg
$2.00/kg
$8.00/kg
$10.00/kg
$12.00/kg
Transatlantic
Westbound
Transpacific
Eastbound
Asia-Europe
Westbound
Even as capacity returned globally,
rising fuel prices and local capacity
shortages further elevated yields
3
Directions of highest
demand shown, return rates
are generally substantially
lower (up to 2-3x)
$3.50/kg
Initial increase in rates due to
capacity shortages (and high
demand, particularly PPE)
2
Historically, yields are
relatively stable, with
occasional (seasonal) peaks
1
+170%

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% growth, week of March 21-27 vs week of Feb 14-20, 2022
Impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on international air cargo capacity
Several freighter operators have opted to serve Europe-Asia via the Middle
East, as shown by increasing capacity on the trade lane
The war in Ukraine has caused direct air cargo capacity
between Europe and Asia to decrease by more than 20%
Note: 21-27 March 2022 compared to 14–20 February 2022; Direct international flights only; all flows indicate region-to-region capacity; regions indicated by color; dates measured
in UTC;1) Total air cargo capacity includes widebody passenger and all freighter flights; Source: Seabury Cargo Capacity Tracking database, Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
+10
+10
-6
-5
+4
-20
-27 +4
+5
+4
-6
-1
+14
-2
-3
+2
+4
Global capacity: +1%
Observations
1 Direct air cargo capacity
between Europe and Asia
has fallen -20% to -25%
2
3
Capacity between Europe
and Asia via the Middle
East has increased as
carriers reroute freighters
Capacity on other major
trade lanes has remained
relatively unaffected
+4

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Thousand tonnes per week
Europe-to-North East Asia direct air cargo capacity1, 2022
Direct air cargo capacity declines are driven by European carriers and integrators
Direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia
has stabilized around a “new normal” of -23% vs February
Notes: 1) Direct air cargo capacity is capacity directly operated between Europe (including Russia) and North East Asia (e.g. excluding flights operated via Central Asia or the Middle
East); All freighters and widebody passenger aircraft only; Dates measured in UTC time; Source: Seabury Cargo Capacity Tracking database, Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
Feb 19 Feb 26 Mar 05 Mar 12
Total
-23%
-41%
+7%
Mar 19-25 vs
Feb 19-25
Carriers initially impacted
Carriers that cancelled/rerouted
flights since before March 2nd
▪ European (including Russian)
▪ Integrators
▪ China Airlines
Non-impacted carriers
▪ Chinese carriers
▪ Ethiopian
Carriers impacted later
Cancelled / rerouted
flights after March 2nd
▪ Japanese carriers (since March 2)
▪ South Korean carriers (since March 16)
▪ EVA (March 8), Cathay (March 14)
Seven days
starting Saturday…
Total
-1%
-3%
+2%
Mar 19-25 vs
Mar 12-18
-4% -16%
30.2
38.1
29.6
12.4
5.7
29.0 29.3
21.0
5.9
11.2
13.9
10.6 11.4
12.7
5.2
11.7
12.6
5.0
12.0
4.9
Mar 19

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USD per gallon
Global aviation fuel price development, 2006-2022
Global aviation fuel prices have skyrocketed to above $3.50 per gallon,
levels last seen at the height of the 2008 financial crisis
The war in Ukraine also impacts the air cargo industry
through higher fuel prices
Source: US Energy Information Administration, March 2022
$4.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$3.40/
gallon
$1.60/
gallon
US increases
shale oil supply
Financial
crisis
COVID
impact
Increased
production
OPEC/Russia
Russia-Ukraine
conflict Note: Current price is
$3.63/gallon
as of March 21st, 2022

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The current lockdown in Shanghai affects ~25% of total air
cargo capacity out of Greater China
Share of total international outbound capacity1, 14-27 March 2022
%, tonnes
Note: Direct international capacity only; 1) Includes widebody passenger, airline freighter and integrator freighter capacity; Source: ”Logistics firms predict Shanghai lockdown
airfreight disruption”, Air Cargo News (30 March 2022); Seabury Cargo Capacity tracking database; Seabury Cargo analysis (April 2022)
Response of non-Chinese freighter operators is most important to the
lockdown’s impact on air cargo capacity
Note: Bubble size indicative of airport
international air cargo capacity
PVG
25%
CAN
11%
SZX
7%
Several airlines have cancelled flights [..], transport
around the city has been curbed and [..] warehouses
are either closed or operating at reduced capacity.
“It is possible that delays will be incurred, to and
from the region, for the next couple of weeks.”
By Rebecca Jeffrey 30 / 03 / 2022
Out of Greater China, from selected airports From PVG alone, by type
CGO
4%
PEK
4%
HKG
37%
19%
51%
30%
Widebody
belly
Non-Chinese
freighter
operators
Chinese
freighter
operators

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Contents
Air cargo demand
Air cargo capacity

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YTD growth1 (%)
Global international air trade growth by trade lane, January 2022 vs January 2021
The Transpacific (+74k tonnes) and Transatlantic (+47k tonnes) trade
lanes were the largest contributors to growth
After exceeding 2019 levels by +7% in 2021, global air trade
grew another +8% in Jan 2022 vs. Jan 2021
Notes: YTD compares Jan 2022 vs Jan 2021
Source: Seabury Cargo Global Air Trade Database, Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
+34
+17
+0
+2
-9
-6
+7 +35
+7
+1
+11
+25
-2
-8
-6
+4
+11
+25
-3
+14
Global air trade in Jan 2022:
+8% vs Jan 2021

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21% 18% 5%
+35 +21 +16
-6%
-6
6% 6% 6%
+21 +19 +15
11% 11% 8%
+12 +11 +2
Chemicals (+21%) and fashion goods (+18%) showed
significant growth in January 2022
Global air trade growth by industry, Jan’21 vs. Jan’20 ..
Air weight change (thousand tonnes) and growth vs 20211 (%)
..and top changes by commodity
Growth (thousand tonnes, %)
Notes: 1) January 2022 vs January 2021; 2) Includes metals and glass products
Automotive is the only industry decreasing in January 2022 (-6% vs Jan’21)
Automotive
Chemicals High technology
Consumer goods
Capital equipment
Raw materials
Machinery parts
Fashion goods
Temperature control
Highlighted industries in this Market
Dynamics report
+12k
+23k
+15k
-2k
+8k
+12k
+10k
-2k
-5k
-6k
+44%
+14%
+19%
+19%
+23%
+33%
-10%
-3%
-10%
-7%
Pharmaceuticals
Clothing
Fresh cut flowers
Other chemicals
Personal consumer goods
Basic raw materials
Colors & dyes
Foodstuffs
Semi-manufactured
consumables2
Vehicle parts
Strong
demand for
Covid testing
equipment
Other
Includes high
demand for
Electronic
cigarettes &
vapes

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New commodity data in Seabury’s Global Air Trade database
shows China leads air exports of COVID testing equipment
Top air exporting countries of COVID-testing kits ..
Thousand tonnes, Share of total %
.. and top air importing countries, Jan’22
Thousand tonnes, Share of total %
COVID test kits have played a large role in growth of pharmaceuticals in Jan’22
Germany
United Kingdom
USA
Other
Canada
China
8.2 (42%)
1.4 (7%)
1.2 (6%)
0.7 (4%)
0.6 (3%)
7.5 (38%)
8.1 (41%)
4.3 (22%)
2.3 (12%)
Other 3.5 (18%)
Japan
South Korea
China
USA
Germany 0.9 (4%)
0.5 (3%)
Not all COVID
testing equipment is
captured under the
single commodity
shown, actual
amounts likely
multiples of the
values shown

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Thousand tonnes per month
High tech air trade by commodity, 2019 - 2022
High tech air trade of computers & laptops has stabilized,
after growing in response to work-from-home demand
Source: Seabury Cargo Global Air Trade Database, Seabury Cargo Analysis (March 2022)
50
75
100
Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22
YoY growth
Jan ‘22 vs Jan‘21
Computers & Laptops
Telecommunications
High tech machinery
Semiconductors
Other high tech
0%
+10%
+2%
+8%
+9%
Total +5%
Telecommunications air trade continues growing, registering +8% in January 2022 (vs Jan’21)

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New commodity data in Seabury’s Air Trade database
shows strong (+19%) growth of smartphones air trade
Telecom air trade by commodity, Jan ‘22
Thousand tonnes
Top smartphone air exporters, 2019 - 2022
Thousand tonnes
Note: Seabury Cargo Air Trade Database implemented new commodities based on the new HS6 codes in January 2022, Smartphones previously under Radio & cellular phones
After significant growth, Vietnam accounted for almost a third of global
smartphones air exports in January 2022
80%
Jan-21
Jan-19 Jan-20
6%
66%
27%
Jan-22
China
Vietnam
Other
22
19
21
26
Telephonic
apparatus parts
35%
36%
14%
16%
Jan-22
Smartphones
Line-switching
apparatus
Other
73
-26%
+3%
+165%
YoY growth
Jan’22 vs Jan’21
+19%
+11%
-11%
+2%
YoY growth

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YoY growth in thousand tonnes
Fashion air export growth by origin country, 2020 - 2022
Vietnam fashion air exports more than doubled year-over-year
(+8,600 tonnes) in January 2022
Fashion has been one of the last industries to recover post-
COVID, now showing +18% growth in Jan ’22 (vs Jan ’21)
0
10
-40
20
-20
-30
-10
30
2020 2022
2021
Bangladesh
China
Other
+60%
+15%
+11%
Fashion air exports were hit significantly
by the COVID pandemic…
… only picking
up in Q2 2021
In recent months, Vietnam
shows higher growth than
China in both relative &
absolute terms
Total +18%
YoY growth
Vietnam +105%

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COVID-19
105
0
70
35
140
Jul
Jul
Jan Jan Jan Jul Jan
Automotive air trade decreased -6% YoY in January 2022
(vs Jan’21), after exceptional demand in 2021
Automotive global air trade, 2019 - 2022
Thousand tonnes per month
Automotive air export top & bottom change, Jan’22
Thousand tonnes, YoY growth %
Automotive demand unlikely to equal that of 2021, but expected to remain above 2019 levels
Total
Germany
Taiwan
Vietnam
-6.2
Italy
Japan
India
+0.7
+0.7
+0.2
-1.5
-1.7
-2.7
-6%
+30%
+52%
+9%
-21%
-39%
-15%
2019 2020 2021
Jan’22
vs Jan’21
-6%
YoY growth

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Contents
Air cargo demand
Air cargo capacity

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% growth vs 2019
Total international air cargo capacity growth, March 14-27 vs same weeks in 20191
Transatlantic air cargo capacity (which was heavily impacted post-COVID)
has almost recovered to 2019 levels
Global international air cargo capacity is still down around
-5% versus 2019 levels
Note: 14-27 March 2022 compared to 11–24 March 2019; Direct international flights only; all flows indicate region-to-region capacity; regions indicated by color; dates measured in
UTC;1) Total air cargo capacity includes widebody passenger and all freighter flights; Source: Seabury Cargo Capacity Tracking database, Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
-5
-3
-12
-11
-4
-35
-43 +9
+8
-44
+11
+11
+1
-17
-22
-4
+11
+11
-9
-77
Global capacity growth: -6%
Note: Declines were
around -10% before
Chinese New year
Note: A year ago,
Transatlantic declines
stood at -27%

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vs.
20191
Airline freighters
Passenger belly
+13%
-36%
Thousand tonnes per week
International air cargo capacity, Jan 2020 – Mar 2022
Integrator freighters now account for almost a quarter (24%) of global air cargo capacity
International airline freighter capacity is now “only” 13%
above 2019 levels, after Russian freighters were parked
Note: Direct international capacity only; All freighters and widebody passenger aircraft only; 1) Comparing the weeks of 14-27 March 2022 to 11-24 March 2019;
Source: Seabury Cargo Capacity Tracking database, Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
Total capacity -6%
Widebody aircraft only
Integrator freighters +39%
0
700
500
100
200
300
400
600
800
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
2020 2021
36%
48%
Pre-COVID
16%
33%
43%
Passenger
belly
24%
March 14-27
2.9
2.7
Airline
freighters
Integrator
freighters
Capacity by aircraft type
Million tonnes

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Deliveries Conversions
(estimated)
Fleet grounding
+2.0
-7.7
+6.8
AirBridgeCargo
fleet
-1.3
Antonov-
124 fleet
B767F
20x
B767F
7x
B777F
20x
B747F
6x
+0.5
+1.4
+1.0
A330F
10x
Total
+2.8
Baseline = 2021
Billion ATKs
High-level Global freighter air cargo capacity change, 2022 vs. 2021
Boeing B777 freighter deliveries result in the largest freighter capacity gain by far
Freighter deliveries and conversions in 2022 are expected
to offset groundings of Russian/Ukrainian freighters
Note: Numbers may not add up to totals due to rounding; Number of conversions are estimated, based on previous Seabury Cargo studies; ATKs of delivered aircraft estimated
based on typical annual ATKs for the aircraft type; Source: Seabury Cargo Capacity Tracking database, Ascend Global Fleet database, Seabury Cargo analysis (April 2022)
Note: Part of fleet
may resume
operations with
different carriers
in future
Note: Most conversions
destined for integrators
Note: Around 1/3 of deliveries
destined for integrators
~1% of global
freighter capacity

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Belly cargo capacity reductions are mostly caused by fewer
in-service aircraft (-25%), rather than lower utilization (-14%)
Global in-service widebody passenger fleet ..
Thousand aircraft
.. and their block hour utilization, 2020-2022
Hours flown per day
Note: Aircraft included in Green: Airbus A330neo & A350, Boeing B787, B777-300ER, B747-8; Orange: Airbus A330-200/300, & A340-300, Boeing B767-300ER, B777-200ER/LR; Red:
Airbus A380 & A340-600, Boeing B747-400; Source: Seabury Cargo Capacity Tracking database, Seabury Cargo analysis (April 2022)
Widebody passenger capacity continues to suffer from lower utilization
1.9
Q2
Q1
2.3
2.0
Q3 Q4
1.8
Q2 Q4 Q1 Q3
1.2
Q1
4.2
1.1
1.8
2.6 2.6
2.8
3.0
3.1
-25%
2020 2021
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Q3
Q3
Q1 Q2 Q2
Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1
-14%
2020 2021
Least cargo-
friendly aircraft
e.g. A380, B747
Medium cargo-
friendly aircraft
e.g. A330, B767
Most cargo-
friendly aircraft
e.g. A350, B787

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Number of aircraft
Change in planned widebody aircraft deliveries, Feb 2022 vs. Apr 2020
Significant additional freighter orders were placed in 2023/2024
Deliveries of widebody passenger aircraft have been
deferred, while freighter orders have increased post-COVID
Note: Snapshot of order book as of the first day of the month; Showing widebody aircraft only; 1) Including aircraft that are already delivered in 2020/2021; 2) Aircraft ordered by
UPS, FedEx and DHL; 3) Difference of total orders as of 1 February 2022 and as of 1 April 2020. Aircraft orders that have been deferred to after 2029 are considered as cancellations;
4) Total planned deliveries from 2020 to 2029, including aircraft already delivered in 2020/2021; Source: Cirium Fleet Database, Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
-121
aircraft
+9
+3
+11 +8
+15 +12
-7
+3
-8
+21 +21
+14
20201 2026
20211 2022 2024
2023 2029
2025 2027 2028
Widebody
airline
freighter
Widebody
integrator
freighter2
Widebody
passenger
+60
aircraft
+44
aircraft
1,474
93
129
-110
-200
-136
-38
+74
+128
+83
+46 +27
+5
Net change3
(‘22 vs. ‘20)
Total orders4
(2020-2029)

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Summer schedules
-28%
2022 vs 2019
Summer 2021:
-49% vs. 2019
1.5
0.0
0.5
2.0
1.0
3.5
2.5
3.0
Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
-22%
-46%
Schedules suggest international widebody belly capacity in
the 2022 summer season will be 28% below 2019 levels
International scheduled widebody belly capacity
Million tonnes per month
Widebody belly capacity on key lanes, summer 2022
Million tonnes scheduled
Note: Summer schedule includes months April through October
Source: Seabury Cargo Capacity Tracking & Scheduled Capacity databases; Seabury Cargo analysis (April 2022)
(Intra-)Asia is the among the worst-performing regions in widebody belly
capacity, both absolute and relative terms
2019
2022
Growth
vs summer 2019
3.2
2.9
5.3
Intra-Asia Pacific
Transatlantic
Asia Pacific - Europe
Transpacific
3.1
1.8
0.9
1.7
1.0
Actual capacity
Apr-Oct 2019
Scheduled capacity
Apr-Oct 2022
-43%
-9%
-49%
-41%

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Contents
Air cargo demand
Air cargo capacity

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Index
Monthly consumer sentiment index, January 2008 - March 2022
Consumer confidence is impacted by the ongoing war and concerns over inflation
Consumer sentiment is down to levels last seen during the
European debt crisis, after strong post-COVID recovery
Source: University of Michigan Consumer Survey, Seabury Cargo analysis (April 2022)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
’08 ’09 ’14
’10 ’15
’11 ’13
’12 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22
Financial
crisis
European
debt crisis
COVID-19
outbreak
War in
Ukraine
Vaccine
rollout
Delta COVID
variant

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OECD forecast
0%
+1%
+2%
+3%
+4%
+5%
+6%
2021
2019 2020 2022 2023
Inflation in Q1 2022 is expected to reach its highest level in
over 20 years, driven by energy prices and shipping costs
OECD countries1 inflation forecast, 2019-2023
Annual growth rate (%)
Notes: 1) Includes the 38 OECD member countries; Source: OECD, How Soaring Shipping Costs Raise Prices Around the World, IMF blog (28 March 2022),
Inflation outlook remains elevated, potentially negatively impacting air cargo demand
“… when freight rates double,
inflation picks up by about 0.7
percentage point.”
“The increase in shipping costs
observed in 2021 could
increase inflation by about 1.5
percentage points in 2022.“
28-03-2022
3-22
How soaring shipping costs
raise prices around the world
By Yan Carrière-Swallow
IMF blog
“… [consumer] prices in the 19
countries that use the Euro
soaring 7.5 percent.”
”Energy prices rocketed nearly
45 percent in March from a
year earlier.“
01-04-2022
Energy prices in EU soar 45%
as inflation hits another record
By Liz Alderman
New York Times
Energy prices in EU soar 45% as inflation hits another record, the New York Times (1 April 2022), Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)

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YoY (%)
Global air trade & PMI growth monthly, Jan 2001 – Feb 2022
Stagnant PMI growth hints at limited year-over-year growth of air cargo demand
The Purchasing Managers Index has reverted back to
neutral in the first two months of 2022
Notes: Air trade values until December 2021 (in weight); PMI values until February 2022; PMI is JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI; 1) A measure of statistical correlation
Source: Market Economics, Seabury Cargo Global Air Trade Database; Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Air weight growth
PMI growth
R-coefficient1: 0.88
3 months
3 months
2 months 4 months 3 months
Note: PMI values through February
2022 do not (fully) account for the
effects of the Russia/Ukraine war yet

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Air trade, YoY (%)
Global air trade & CLI growth monthly, Jan 2001 – Feb 2022
Negative CLI value points at moderating/stagnating future demand for air cargo
The OECD’s Composite Leading Indicator has dipped into
negative territory in February 2022
Notes: Air trade values until December 2021 (in weight); CLI values until February 2022; CLI is OECD Composite Leading Indicator, for OECD countries + six major non-member
countries; 1) A measure of statistical correlation; Source: OECD, Seabury Cargo Global Air Trade Database; Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
+2%
+4%
+6%
+8%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2001 2003 2015
2009
2007
2005 2013
2011 2017 2019 2021
2 months
Air weight growth
CLI (right axis)
3 months
2 months
R-coefficient1: 0.94
2 months
CLI, YoY (%)
Note: CLI values through February
2022 do not (fully) account for the
effects of the Russia/Ukraine war yet

4/4/2022
29
Confidential.
YoY growth (%)
USA inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio and air imports1, 2008 – Jan 2022
Companies are expected to continue to use air freight to restock inventories in the short term
Even as growth of the US’ inventory-to-sales ratio has
reverted to almost zero, air imports have remained strong
Notes: 1) The I/S ratio and air imports growth have a strong statistical correlation of -0.73, which equals an R-Squared of 0.52 for the period of Jan 2008 – Jan 2022;
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Seabury Cargo Air Trade Database, Seabury Cargo analysis (March 2022)
+50%
-20%
-30%
+20%
+30%
-10%
+10%
-30%
+20%
+40%
+50%
+10%
-20%
+30%
+40%
-10%
2009 2021
2011 2017
2013 2015 2019 2022
Whenever the I/S ratio is
down, air freight (import)
is expected to increase
I/S ratio YoY growth
US air imports growth

4/4/2022
30
Confidential.
Email:
Phone:
Website: www.seaburycargo.com
Phone:
Email:
marco.bloemen@accenture.com
Contact us for more information
Marco Bloemen
Managing director
Jonathan Mellink
Commercial manager
Seabury Cargo Seabury Cargo
jonathan.mellink@accenture.com
+31 6 1472 0413 +31 6 2171 1793

Air Cargo Market Dynamics 2022

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