AZ = Narrative Project - Statewide Poll

Progress Now Arizona
Narrative Research Project
Statewide Online Poll
Prepared by Ben Lazarus and Lily Siegman
April 2018

Key Findings – What to Emphasize
Findings from the first rounds of qualitative research (1:1 stakeholder interviews, online message boards, and ethnographies) drove many of the questions asked
in this online survey, including the four MaxDiff experiments that are at the heart of this instrument. Throughout the qualitative research, a clear theme emerged -
- Arizonans hold a shared, negative reaction to the current state of our politics and believe the people we elect are fundamentally out for themselves, rather than
the people they represent.
This survey attempts to quantify this theme and plot out how Arizona progressives can position themselves to both diffuse the cynicism that holds back civic
engagement and pivot off the frustration with our politics with a bold and overtly progressive message. Key through-lines from this survey include:
• Corporations as bad actors. In particular, greedy and corrupt corporations emerge as the evocative symbols progressives
would be wise to come back to time and again. Additionally, the top-testing progressive approach for generating new
revenue is requiring corporations to pay more in taxes.
• Negative attitudes about the current state of our politics also set lobbyists and the political establishment apart as uniquely
effective symbols for engaging and activating Arizona voters. Language that proves less effective at defining bad actors
includes: the well-connected, the wealthy, millionaires, and the rich.
• A populist angle that specifically rejects more help for the powerful and instead calls for elected leaders to pursue policies
that level the playing field and provide opportunities for all those who work hard effectively diffuses cynicism and engages.
Cracking down on the influence of big money in politics also surfaces as an effective engagement message.
• Building upon the qualitative research, we find that voters place a premium on candidates who are honest, accountable, and
provide objective facts over political spin. What’s more, the notion of honest and authentic candidates who are willing to
lose an election in defense of their actions and values also resonates and stands in stark contrast to current perceptions of
how politicians behave.

Key Findings – Words of Caution
• There is also a centrist through-line that permeates this survey. The most resonant plan for revenue is a balanced
approach that leans on both raising taxes on the wealthy and big corporations AND cutting spending and identifying
sources of waste, fraud, and abuse. Additionally, a bi-partisan theme that calls on elected leaders to join together
regardless of party labels is also a very effective messaging approach when stacked up against many other, more
overtly progressive alternatives.
• Some of our theories coming out of the qualitative did not pan out in this survey. We see this materialize most acutely
in the MaxDiff exercises around candidate qualities and messaging to diffuse cynicism. On the candidate qualities, we
were particularly surprised by how little voters across the board -- including progressive base voters and mobilization
targets -- prioritize knowing what it’s like to struggle, looking like me/sounding like me, and work in the local community
where they are running. Honesty, accountability, listening, trust, and providing facts over spin are all viewed as more
important qualities.
• Similarly, the concepts of electing new candidates who aren’t corrupted by the political system, marginalized
communities taking back power, and electing younger, more racially diverse candidates all fell flat in this survey
(including among progressive base voters and people of color) when compared to notions of leveling the playing field,
electing honest leaders, creating new rules that prevent big donors from influencing politicians, and stopping the
partisan fighting.

Survey methodology and notes on bias
TargetSmart designed this online survey. The survey reached 814 adults, age 18 or older. Interviews were
conducted online among panelists who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file from six opt-in panel
providers, and among respondents who were served SMS invites through cell phone numbers matched to
the TargetSmart voter file. Quotas were assigned to reflect the demographic and geographic distribution
of registered voters in Arizona. The data were weighted by gender, age, race, party registration, and
county to ensure an accurate reflection of the population. No margins of sampling error are calculated for
this survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not
due to its reliance on non-representative opt-in panels. Percentage totals may not add up precisely due
to rounding.
This is a non-probability survey, meaning not all voters in Arizona had a random, equal, and non-zero
chance to participate. Most respondents were recruited from opt-in, incentivized panels. They are biased
towards being connected online in a way we cannot precisely measure or correct for. Panel surveys also
have a documented bias against the oldest voters in an electorate, who are less connected online than
the average voter. While the demographic composition of the survey sample is largely consistent with the
demographic profile of all Arizona voters, low participation rates in Spanish language suggest the Latino
voters in the sample are biased towards English language. The sample we reached therefore likely carries
a bias towards more acculturated, English-dominant, and engaged Latino voters.

Segment Descriptions
✓Progressive base segment: have at least three
progressive issue stances or negative feelings about
Trump
✓Motivation/mobilization segment: partisanship
score 60+ and midterm turnout <80
✓Conservative base segment: have at least three
conservative issue stances or positive feelings about
Trump
✓Non-conservative segment: all voters without
conservative base segment

Racial Composition of Segments
Progressive Base Motivation/Mobilization Conservative Base Non-Conservative

Age Composition of Segments

Gender Composition of Segments

Most Voters Express Negative Sentiment When Asked to Describe Feelings
About the Future of the United States
Q.5 And if you had to choose ONE word to describe your feelings about the future of the United States, what would
that word be?

Negative Feelings About The Future of The United States Abounds Among
Progressive Base And Motivation Segment
Q.5 And if you had to choose ONE word to describe your feelings about the future of the United States, what would
that word be?

Voters Are More Mixed About Arizona’s Future
Q.6 And if you had to choose ONE word to describe your feelings about Arizona's future, what would that word be?

Half of Conservative Base Voters Are Optimistic About The State’s Future,
Unlike A Majority of Progressive Base Voters
Q.6 And if you had to choose ONE word to describe your feelings about Arizona's future, what would that word be?

Few Predict Negative Economic Outcomes, Most Expect Status Quo,
About 1-in-3 See Finances and Economy Getting Better in the Future
Q.7 In the next year or so, do you expect the economy in your part of Arizona to get better, get worse, or stay about the
same? Q.8 And in the next year or so do you expect your personal financial situation to get better, get worse, or stay about

Older Voters And Republicans Are Optimistic About The Economy, But Are Less Enthusiastic
About Their Personal Financial Future; Democrats Are Bearish on AZ’s Future
Q.7 In the next year or so, do you expect the economy in your part of Arizona to get better, get worse, or stay about the
same? Q.8 And in the next year or so do you expect your personal financial situation to get better, get worse, or stay about

4-in-10 Believe Everyone Has Access To Equal Opportunities To Get Ahead
Q.9 Please select the statement below that comes closest to your opinion, even if none of them are exactly right.

Progressive Base Segment Is Most Likely To Believe People Like Them Have Access To More
Opportunities
A majority of conservative base segment believe everyone has access to equal opportunities

But Most Think Government Has a Responsibility to Set Everyone Up to Succeed

Majorities of Progressive Base Voters, Latinos Believe Government Has A
Responsibility In Providing Opportunities

Nearly Half Prefer an Activist Role for Government in Helping Working People
When Presented with Conservative, Free-Market Alternative
Q.13 Please select the statement below that comes closest to your opinion, even if neither of them is exactly right.
Government should have an
active role in helping working
people by raising the
minimum wage, expanding
paid sick leave and family
leave, and going after
employers that cheat their
workers.
Government should stay out
of the private sector and not
be allowed to place
burdensome regulations on
small and medium sized
businesses, regulations that
kill jobs and drive down
wages.

Two Thirds of Latinos Prefer That Government Stay Out of The Private Sector
Q.13 Please select the statement below that comes closest to your opinion, even if neither of them is exactly right.

A Plurality Want To Find A Balance Between Tighter Gun Control Laws And
Protecting The Second Amendment
Q.14 Switching gears a bit to the topic of guns and gun control. Please select the statement below that comes closest to
your opinion, even if none of them are exactly right.

Over Half of Progressive Base Voters Want Stricter Gun Laws, While Most
Voters in Mobilization And Conservative Segments Prefer A Balanced Approach
Q.14 Switching gears a bit to the topic of guns and gun control. Please select the statement below that comes closest to
your opinion, even if none of them are exactly right.

Half of Voters Rate Their Neighborhood Public Schools Positively
Q.16 Switching gears a bit, would you rate the quality of your neighborhood public schools as excellent, good, just
fair, or poor?
Excellent/Good
50%
Just fair/Poor
43%

Those Who Attend Religious Services Somewhat Frequently Are Most Likely To Hold Positive Opinions
Of Their Local, Public Schools
Liberals hold most negative views of schools
Q.16 Switching gears a bit, would you rate the quality of your neighborhood public schools as excellent, good, just
fair, or poor?

Among Those Who Give Their Neighborhood Public Schools A Negative Rating,
3-in-5 Blame State Government For Their Quality
Q.17 (IF JUST FAIR OR POOR IN Q.16) Who do you blame for the JUST FAIR/POOR quality of your
neighborhood public schools?

Overwhelming Agreement That Arizona’s Government Needs To Improve ALL
Schools Statewide
se Latino students and other students of color don't get the same opportunities available to white students.
se the kids in those schools don't get the same opportunities available to kids in richer districts.
Government in Arizona needs to do a better job improving ALL schools across the state, because all kids deserve the oppo

Health Care Costs Have At Least Some Impact On Most Voters
Q.19 Please choose from the options below the statement that most closely describes the impact health care related costs
for things like doctors visits, tests, and prescription drugs have on you and your family.
nimal to no impact on me and my family.
y family, but we're able to handle them without too much stress.
Health care related costs have a huge impact on me and my family, and are the biggest source financial s
Health care related costs have a big impact on me and my family, and we have to make sacrifices to p

Health Care Costs Impact Voters In All Segments
Q.19 Please choose from the options below the statement that most closely describes the impact health care related costs
for things like doctors visits, tests, and prescription drugs have on you and your family.

Over Half of Voters Want More Government Intervention in the Health Care
Market
was a government takeover of health care and it has failed. Fewer regulations and lower taxes are the answer to bringing down health care costs.
of control and government should do everything in its power to make health care more affordable, like making Medicaid and Medicare more accessible and pr
costs too much while leaving too many people without the healthcare they need. We should replace it with a system in which the government provides insura

Latino Residents, Those Under Age 50, And Those Without College Degrees Are
Most Likely To Support Government Health Care For All

Three-in-Five Voters Believe Health Care Is A Human Right
Q.21 Please select the statement below that you agree with more when it comes to health care.
Access to affordable health
care is a fundamental human
right and no one in America
should have to go without
medical treatment because
they cannot afford it.
Health care is a service like
any other that costs money,
not a “human right”. People
need to take personal
responsibility, not bank on the
government to provide health
care.

Progressive Base and Mobilization Targets Overwhelmingly Believe Health Care
Is A Fundamental Human Right, But Conservatives Largely See It As A Service
Q.21 Please select the statement below that you agree with more when it comes to health care.

Over Half Of Voters Support Legal Immigration And Think It Should Be Easier To Do
Just one-eighth of voters say immigrants hurt our economy and we should limit all immigration
Q.22 Changing topics, please select the statement about immigrants in Arizona below that comes closest to your own
opinion, even if none of them are exactly right.
our schools. We should limit all immigration, including legal immigration, but also continue to crack down on illegal immigration to protect our American cultu
s are a cornerstone of Arizona culture. They work hard, boost our economy, and are our friends, neighbors, and co-workers. We should do everything we can t
ould be commended and embraced, they work hard and contribute to our unique culture, and, in general, legal immigration should be easier. But we are a nat

Majorities of Progressive Base, Mobilization Segment, and Latinos Support
Immigrants As A Part of Arizona’s Culture
Q.22 Changing topics, please select the statement about immigrants in Arizona below that comes closest to your own
opinion, even if none of them are exactly right.

A Plurality of Voters Say LGBT People Deserve Same Protections As Other
Arizonans
Q.23 Please select the statement below that you agree with the most when it comes to members of the lesbian, gay,
bisexual, and transgender or LGBT community, even if none of them are exactly right.
ng our elected officials. They should quit trying so hard to make us accept their lifestyle.
ghts of business owners to refuse service to LGBT people based on their religious beliefs.
rizona. LGBT people and their families contribute to our economy, our culture, and our civic institutions. LGBT people deserve to enjoy the same protections as any other
Arizona is a state that doesn’t discriminate. While some people might have different beliefs, we are a place that already values freedom, includ

Progressive Base More Likely than Mobilization Audience to Take the Most
Progressive Stance on the LGBT Community
Q.23 Please select the statement below that you agree with the most when it comes to members of the lesbian, gay,
bisexual, and transgender or LGBT community, even if none of them are exactly right.

Broad Majority Report Following Politics Regularly Or Very Closely
Q.24 OK switching gears again, please select the statement below that best describes how closely you follow
politics and
Follow closely/ regularly:
71%
Follow a little/don’t care
29%
I follow politics very closely and am constantly up to speed on what's going on with
I follow politics regularly and feel pretty well informed about it.
bit, but don't pay very close attention to it.
w politics or care about it at all.

And 4-in-10 Claim to Be Paying More Attention Since the 2016 Elections
Q.25 And in comparison to how closely you followed politics before the 2016 elections, would you say you are
paying MORE
attention to politics these days, paying LESS attention to politics these days, or paying ABOUT THE SAME amount

Progressive Base Segment Is Most Likely To Be Paying More Attention To
Politics Since November 2016
Q.25 And in comparison to how closely you followed politics before the 2016 elections, would you say you are
paying MORE
attention to politics these days, paying LESS attention to politics these days, or paying ABOUT THE SAME amount

Two-Thirds of Voters Use Facebook Regularly
Q.27 From the list below please select all of the social media platforms you use on a regular basis.
Progressive
Base
Motivation/
Mobilization
Conservative
Base
Facebook 69% 72% 60%
Instagram 25% 38% 16%
LinkedIn 15% 17% 19%
Pinterest 18% 26% 15%
Snapchat 14% 23% 11%
Twitter 14% 19% 13%
Reddit 3% 4% 2%
Tumblr 3% 2% 1%
Something
else
2% 1% 3%
None 24% 18% 28%
Social Media Usage By Segment

However, Fewer Than A Third Use Facebook To Get News
Local TV News Is The Most Used Media Source For News
Q.28 From the list below please select all of the media sources you use to get information about the news.
Progressive
Base
Motivation/
Mobilization
Conservativ
e Base
Local TV news 66% 51% 60%
News websites 53% 44% 45%
Internet search 46% 38% 45%
Cable TV news 46% 33% 50%
Newspapers 43% 24% 36%
Facebook 30% 38% 22%
Radio 27% 23% 26%
Twitter 8% 16% 4%
Reddit 2% 3% 2%
Another media
source
4% 2% 5%
Media Sources Used By Segment

Only 1-in-4 Respondents Claim They Mainly Access Internet Via Mobile
Results likely biased by online mode of data collection
Q.29 Do you mostly access the Internet on...
Progressive
Base
Motivation/
Mobilization
Conservative
Base
Mobile
phone
26% 37% 24%
Tablet 11% 10% 12%
Laptop 28% 24% 28%
Desktop 35% 26% 36%
Internet Access By Segment

Seven-In-Ten Voters Have Cable Or Satellite TV In Their Home
Just seven percent watch TV in both English and Spanish
Q.30 Which of the following best describes the television situation in your household?
Q.31 Which of the following best describes the language in which you watch television?

Half of Voters Read The Mail Most Of The Time
Q.32 Which of the following best describes how you read your physical mail from the United States Postal Service?
Progressive
Base
Motivation/
Mobilization
Conservative
Base
Real all
mail
13% 16% 16%
Read most
mail
56% 51% 49%
Most mail
is junk
31% 29% 30%
Never
receive
important
mail
0% 1% 3%
Level Respondent Reads Mail By Segment

A Majority of Voters Have Negative Feelings Towards Donald Trump
Bare plurality “hates” him
Q.34 Switching gears again, would you say you love, like, dislike, or hate Donald Trump?
Love/Like
35%
Dislike/Hate
56%

Negative Sentiments About Trump Outnumber Positive Sentiments by 3-to-1
Margin
Q.35 And if you could use one word and one word only, to describe Donald Trump, what would it be?

Overwhelming Majority of Progressive Base And Mobilization Segments Use
Negative Words To Describe Trump
Q.35 And if you could use one word and one word only, to describe Donald Trump, what would it be?

A Plurality Of Voters Want Trump To Deliver On His Promises But Believe He
Needs To Be More Professional – Quantifies Findings from Qualitative Research
Q.36 Below are three statements about Donald Trump, please select the one that comes the closest to how you feel about
him, even if none of them are exactly right.
ngerous, and think we need to resist him at every turn, and vote into office people who will oppose him.
I approve of President Trump and what he’s done in office so far. As president he deserves our respect and we need to give him an opportunit
p well and want to see him deliver on his promise to shake things up in Washington. But he needs to be more professional and presidential, and stop

Progressive Base Disagrees With Trump Most, Majority of Conservative Base
Approve of The President
Q.36 Below are three statements about Donald Trump, please select the one that comes the closest to how you feel about
him, even if none of them are exactly right.

MaxDiff/Conjoint Analysis: How it Works and How it’s Different
• It’s very safe
• It looks good
• It gets good gas millage
• It’s got lots of features
• It’s popular
TRADITIONAL
“Please indicate whether
each car feature is very
important, somewhat
important, a little
important or not at all
important to you.”
MAX-DIFF
“Please choose the most
important and least
important car feature to
you from the list below.”

Greedy and Corrupt Corporations, Lobbyists and the Political Establishment Surface As Most
Negative Symbols; Wealthy and Well-Connected Viewed More Positively Relative to Other
Populist Symbols
Most
Positive
Most
Negative
Rank ordered descriptions of types of people or groups of people
The well-connected
The wealthy
Millionaires
The rich
The wealthiest
Big corporations
The richest
Wealthy corporations
Corporate interests
Billionaires
Special interest groups
The top 1 percent
The elite
The political establishment
Lobbyists
Greedy corporations
Corrupt corporations
Q.15 OK, now you’re going to
do something a little different.
On each of the following 11
screens you will find a series
of descriptions of types of
people or groups of people.
For each screen, please
select the description that
brings out the MOST
POSITIVE reaction from you,
and then select the
description that brings out
the MOST NEGATIVE reaction
from you.

Corrupt Corporations Elicit Most Negative Reactions From Voters
Q.15 OK, now you’re going to do something a little different. On each of the following 11 screens you will find a series of
descriptions of types of people or groups of people. For each screen, please select the description that brings out the
MOST POSITIVE reaction from you, and then selectt the description that brings out the MOST NEGATIVE reaction from

Flip Side of Exercise Highlights Peril of “Well Connected” and “Special Interests”
Language
Q.15 OK, now you’re going to do something a little different. On each of the following 11 screens you will find a series of
descriptions of types of people or groups of people. For each screen, please select the description that brings out the
MOST POSITIVE reaction from you, and then selectt the description that brings out the MOST NEGATIVE reaction from

Populist Symbol Language MaxDiff Rank Order Varies Little by Segment; “Political Establishment”
Language Works a Bit Better with Conservatives than Progressives or Mobilization Targets
Most
Positive
Most
Negative
Progressive Base
The well-connected
The wealthy
Millionaires
The rich
The richest
Big corporations
The wealthiest
Corporate interests
Billionaires
The elite
The top 1 percent
Lobbyists
Greedy corporations
Motivation/ Mobilization
The well-connected
The wealthy
Millionaires
The rich
The wealthiest
The richest
Big corporations
Corporate interests
Billionaires
The elite
The top 1 percent
Lobbyists
Greedy corporations
Conservative Base
The wealthy
The well-connected
Millionaires
The rich
The wealthiest
Big corporations
The richest
Corporate interests
Billionaires
The top 1 percent
The elite
Lobbyists
Greedy corporations
Non-Conservatives
The well-connected
The wealthy
Millionaires
The rich
The richest
The wealthiest
Big corporations
Corporate interests
Billionaires
The elite
The top 1 percent
Lobbyists
Greedy corporations

Virtually No Difference in Populist Symbol Rank Order Between Anglo Voters and Latino Voters
Most
Positive
Most
Negative
White Respondents
The well-connected
The wealthy
Millionaires
The rich
Big corporations
The wealthiest
Corporate interests
The richest
Billionaires
The top 1 percent
The elite
Lobbyists
Greedy corporations
Latino Respondents
The well-connected
The wealthy
The rich
Millionaires
Big corporations
The wealthiest
Corporate interests
The richest
Billionaires
The top 1 percent
The elite
Lobbyists
Greedy corporations
Non-white Respondents
The well-connected
The wealthy
Millionaires
The rich
Big corporations
The wealthiest
Corporate interests
The richest
Billionaires
The top 1 percent
The elite
Lobbyists
Greedy corporations

Qualitative Findings Around Honesty, Accountability, Listening and Facts Over Spin
Reinforced in Candidate Quality MaxDiff Experiment
Qualitative findings around knowing struggle and working in local communities don’t quantify
Most
Impor-
tant
Least
Impor-
tant
Rank ordered descriptions of candidate qualities
Honest
Accountable to the people
Provides objective facts, not a bunch of political spin
Listens to the people
Someone you feel like you can trust
Transparent
Doesn’t take money from big corporations and special interest groups
Doesn’t promise things they can’t deliver
Doesn’t only say what they think we want to hear to get votes
Tells it like it is
Has a record of accomplishment
Proves to you they are not bought by big donors
Worked in the local community where they are running
Knows what it’s like to struggle
Independent from either political party
Wants to blow up the political system
Looks like me and sounds like me
Q.26 On each of the following
11 screens you will find as
series of words and phrases
that could be used to describe
people who run for elected
office. For each screen, please
select the word or phrase that
you feel is the MOST
IMPORTANT quality for a
candidate for elected office to
have, and then select the
LEAST IMPORTANT quality for
a candidate for elected office
to have.

Honesty Tops List Of Positive Candidate Descriptions
Q.26 On each of the following 11 screens you will find as series of words and phrases that could be used to describe
people who run for elected office. For each screen, please select the word or phrase that you feel is the MOST
IMPORTANT quality for a candidate for elected office to have, and then select the LEST IMPORTANT quality for a

Wanting To Blow Up The Political System Is The Least Important Candidate
Quality, Closely Followed By Someone Who Looks Like Me & Sounds Like Me

Candidate Quality Importance Only Varies A Bit at the Margin When We Look at
Them by Segment
Most
Impor-
tant
Least
Impor-
tant
Progressive Base
Honest
Provides objective facts, not a bunch of
political spin
Doesn’t take money from big
corporations and special interest groups
Transparent
Doesn’t only say what they think we
want to hear to get votes
Proves to you they are not bought by big
donors
Tells it like it is
Worked in the local community where
they are running
Motivation/Mobilization
Honest
political spin
Transparent
donors
Tells it like it is
they are running
Conservative Base
Honest
political spin
Tells it like it is
Transparent
donors
they are running
Non-Conservatives
Honest
political spin
Transparent
donors
Tells it like it is
they are running

Accountability Pops Among Mobilization Segment
Progressive base Mobilization/ motivation Conservative base Non-conservatives
Honest 20% 13% 22% 24%
Accountable to the people 22% 24% 11% 17%
Provides objective facts, not spin 15% 10% 13% 13%
Someone you feel like you can trust 7% 8% 10% 10%
Listens to the people 6% 11% 9% 7%
Doesn’t take money from big corps or special interest 6% 6% 4% 6%
Doesn’t only say what they think we want to hear 4% 6% 7% 4%
Doesn’t promise things they can’t deliver 3% 2% 5% 4%
Has a record of accomplishment 4% 4% 4% 3%
Proves to you they are not bough by big donors 5% 2% 2% 3%
Tells it like it is 2% 1% 5% 2%
Transparent 4% 6% 3% 3%
Independent from either political party 1% 1% 2% 1%
Wants to blow up the political system 1% 3% 2% 1%
Worked in the local community 1% 2% 1% 1%
Knows what it’s like to struggle 0% 1% 1% 1%
Looks like me and sounds like me 0% 0% 0% 0%
% Most
Important
quality

Few Differences in Candidate Quality Rank Order by Race
Most
Impor-
tant
Least
Impor-
tant
White Respondents
Honest
Transparent
Doesn’t take money from big corporations and
special interest groups
Doesn’t only say what they think we want to hear to
get votes
Tells it like it is
Worked in the local community where they are
running
Latino Respondents
Honest
Transparent
Tells it like it is
get votes
running
Non-White Respondents
Honest
Transparent
Tells it like it is
get votes
running

Honesty and Accountability Pop Among Latino Voters, Trust and Objective Facts
Over Spin More Resonant Among Anglo Voters
White Latino Non-white
Honest 22% 31% 29%
Accountable to the people 13% 22% 22%
Provides objective facts, not spin 15% 5% 7%
Someone you feel like you can trust 11% 3% 4%
Listens to the people 7% 11% 10%
Doesn’t take money from big corps or special interest 5% 5% 6%
Doesn’t only say what they think we want to hear 6% 5% 5%
Doesn’t promise things they can’t deliver 4% 1% 2%
Has a record of accomplishment 4% 2% 1%
Proves to you they are not bough by big donors 3% 2% 2%
Tells it like it is 3% 2% 2%
Transparent 2% 4% 4%
Independent from either political party 2% 1% 0%
Wants to blow up the political system 1% 3% 2%
Worked in the local community 1% 1% 1%
Knows what it’s like to struggle 1% 1% 1%
Looks like me and sounds like me 0% 1% 1%
% Most
Important
quality

Corporations Paying More Emerges as the Top Progressive Approach to New
Revenue Centrist approach that calls out waste, fraud, and abuse has more resonance than progressive frames
Q.33 On each of the
following 6 screens you
will find a series of
statements about state
budget priorities around
education, health care,
and taxes in Arizona. For
each screen, please select
the statement that you
agree with the MOST, and
then select the statement
you agree with the
LEAST.
Agree
with
most
Agree
with
least
Rank ordered state budget priority statements
(BALANCED APPROACH) When it comes to Arizona’s finances and ability to invest in core responsibilities like
education and health care, we should take a balanced approach. We should identify instances of waste, fraud, and
abuse, and find innovative ways to cut inefficient state spending, but ALSO raise taxes on the wealthiest Arizonans
and big corporations to make sure they pay their fair share.
(CORPS PAY MORE) Arizona has some of the lowest teacher pay in the country, expensive health care, and a lack of
investment in renewable energy, but we also have big corporations making record profits. Those big corporations
should pay more in taxes than they currently do so that middle class Arizonans can have opportunities to join in that
prosperity.
(CONSERVATIVE) Arizona takes in plenty of money as it is, and we have some of the highest sales taxes in the country.
Government needs to spend our tax dollars more efficiently, and eliminate all of the sources of waste, fraud, and
abuse before they even come close to considering raising taxes on anyone.
(ADMIT TO PROBLEM) Arizona politicians need to admit we have a problem -- we simply do not take in enough tax
money to adequately pay for public schools and making health care more affordable. If you can't admit the problem,
there is no way to solve it, and if we don't raise some taxes on some people, we will continue to shortchange our
children's schools and our ability to make health care more affordable.
(SALES TAXES) Arizona is overly reliant on sales tax receipts to pay for key responsibilities like education, and every
time we need more funding for something some politician argues we should raise the sales tax even more. We need
to stop relying so much on the sales tax, which unfairly hits working families far harder than it hits the wealthy, and
instead prioritize raising taxes on the wealthy and large corporations to pay for key state responsibilities.
(WEALTHY PAY MORE) Arizona has some of the lowest teacher pay in the country, expensive health care, and a lack of
investment in renewable energy, but if you look at Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, we also have some of the
wealthiest communities in America. Those wealthy individuals should pay more in taxes than they currently do so
that middle class Arizonans can have opportunities to join in that prosperity.
(DONORS) As it stands today in Arizona, if you can make a large donation to an elected official, you can get favors,
preferable treatment, and some kind of sweetheart tax deal for your family or business. Preferential treatment
should go to the people who elect our representatives, not their big donors, and we should end those sweetheart tax
deals to help pay for better schools and more affordable health care.

Conservative to Moderate Messaging on Revenue Draws Most Agreement
Overall
Q.33 On each of the following 6 screens you will find a series of statements about state budget priorities around education,
health care, and taxes in Arizona. For each screen, please select the statement that you agree with the MOST, and then
select the statement you agree with the LEAST.

But Conservative Messaging Also Draws Some Opposition

Centrist, Balanced Message on Budget Tops Corporate Angle, Even With Progressive Base and
Mobilization Targets, Conservative Approach only Works with Conservative Segment
Agree
with
most
Agree
with
least
Progressive Base
Balanced approach
Corps pay more
Admit to problem
Sales tax
Wealthy pay more
Donors
Conservative
Motivation/ Mobilization
Balanced approach
Corps pay more
Sales tax
Admit to problem
Wealthy pay more
Conservative
Donors
Conservative Base
Conservative
Balanced approach
Sales tax
Admit to problem
Corps pay more
Donors
Wealthy pay more
Non-Conservatives
Balanced approach
Corps pay more
Admit to problem
Sales tax
Wealthy pay more
Conservative
Donors

Tax Sensitivity Exists Among Mobilization Targets While Progressive Base is More Fully
Leveraged in the “Balanced Approach” and “Corporations Pay More” Options
Progressive
base
Mobilization/
motivation
Conservative
base
Non-
conservatives
Conservative 15% / 7% 24% / 9% 58% / 12% 18% / 9%
Balanced approach 27% / 19% 26% / 18% 16% / 23% 30% / 18%
Corps pay more 23% / 23% 17% / 20% 5% / 16% 20% / 22%
Admit to problem 15% / 13% 12% / 13% 10% / 18% 13% / 14%
Wealthy pay more 11% / 11% 11% / 12% 6% / 7% 10% / 12%
Sales taxes 5% / 19% 6% / 20% 3% / 11% 5% / 16%
Donors 4% / 8% 4% / 8% 2% / 12% 4% / 7%
Agreement With Statements By Segment: Percent Agree Most/Percent Agree Second Most

The Wealthy Paying More Pops Among Latino Voters
Conservative 33% / 11% 25% / 9% 28% / 10%
Balanced approach 25% / 23% 29% / 7% 28% / 8%
Corps pay more 14% / 19% 13% / 27% 14% / 23%
Admit to problem 14% / 16% 7% / 9% 7% / 12%
Wealthy pay more 6% / 9% 21% / 17% 17% / 16%
Sales taxes 4% / 13% 2% / 19% 4% / 20%
Donors 3% / 9% 2% / 10% 2% / 11%
Agreement With Statements By Race: Percent Agree Most/Percent Agree Second Most

Policies that Lead to a Level Playing Field, Honesty from Electeds, Bi-
Partisanship, and Rules on Electeds Emerge as Top Approaches for Addressing
Cynicism
Q.50 Please read the statement
below that summarizes some
negative opinions about the
problems facing our political
system in Arizona and across the
country.
Our political system is broken.
Politicians in Arizona and
Washington, DC only care about
money, themselves, and their own
re-election, so they help and listen
to their big donors, not us, and
just tell us what they think we
want to hear. And there is so
much partisan bickering and
fighting that nothing ever gets
done for our country, our state,
and the next generation.
On the next 8 screens you will see
a series of ideas for how we can
start solving some of these
problems. On each screen, please
choose what you view to be the
BEST idea and WORST idea for
Rank ordered ideas to solve problems facing our political system
(LEVEL FIELD) Elect leaders who are committed to building an economy that works for everyone, and policies that level
the playing field and create opportunities for those who work hard, not policies that help the wealthy and powerful
even more.
(HONESTY) Stop electing people who will say anything and make big promises just to get elected, and instead elect
people who are honest about what can actually be accomplished, clearly state their values, and stand up for those
values with actions, even if it means they might lose an election.
(BI-PARTISAN) Elect leaders who will stop all the partisan fighting and join together to focus on good ideas that help
Arizona families, regardless of party labels.
(RULES) Make it illegal for elected officials to pass laws that financially benefit themselves and their donors and create
new rules that prevent big donors from influencing politicians.
(WORKING PEOPLE) Regular working people need to join together and collectively take power back from the big-
money donors and politicians they support by voting in every election and at every level of the ballot, from local school
board to President of the United States.
(DARK MONEY) Lessen the influence of dark money in campaigns by reforming how campaigns are financed and
requiring more disclosure over who is paying to win an election.
(GOOD THINGS) Make it clear to the people that when we join together and vote in large numbers, good things happen
like in 2016, when we voted to raise the minimum wage, created the right to paid sick time off, and defeated Sheriff
Joe Arpaio.
(NEW CANDIDATES) A wholesale change in leadership in Arizona; vote them all out and bring in a new crop of
candidates who aren't corrupted and tainted by the political system.
(TAKE BACK POWER) Women, young people, people of color, and the working class need to join together and
collectively take power back from the old, rich, white men who influence politicians and rig the system for themselves.
(DIVERSE) Elect younger, more racially diverse leaders who know what it's like to walk a day in our shoes.
Best
idea
Worst
idea

Significant Reach for a Narrative that Successfully Blends Together Progressive Economic
Priorities with Desire for Honesty and Authenticity
Q.50 Please read the statement below that summarizes some negative opinions about the problems facing our political system in Arizona and across the
country. Our political system is broken. Politicians in Arizona and Washington DC only care about money, themselves, and their own re-election, so they
help and listen to their big donors, not us, and just tell us what they think we want to hear. And there is so much partisan bickering and fighting that nothing
ever gets done for our country, our state, and the next generation. On the next 8 screens you will see a series of ideas for how we can start solving some of
these problems. On each screen, please choose what you view to be the BEST idea and WORST idea for solving these problems.

Overt Calls for Specific Types of Candidates (Apart from Honest Ones) Wedge Voters Away
country. Our political system is broken. Politicians in Arizona and Washington DC only care about money, themselves, and their own re-election, so they help
and listen to their big donors, not us, and just tell us what they think we want to hear. And there is so much partisan bickering and fighting that nothing ever
gets done for our country, our state, and the next generation. On the next 8 screens you will see a series of ideas for how we can start solving some of these
problems. On each screen, please choose what you view to be the BEST idea and WORST idea for solving these problems.

Core Cynicism Diffusers Do Not Vary by Segment Though Collective Power “Good Things”
Narrative Has More Reach with Progressives and Mobilization Targets
Progressive Base
Level field
Honest
Bi-partisan
Rules
Working people
Dark money
Good things
Take back power
Diverse
New candidates
Best
idea
Worst
idea
Motivation/Mobilization
Level field
Honest
Bi-partisan
Rules
Dark money
Working people
Good things
Take back power
New candidates
Diverse
Conservative Base
Bi-partisan
Honest
Level field
Rules
Working people
Dark money
New candidates
Good things
Diverse
Take back power
Non-Conservatives
Level field
Honest
Bi-partisan
Rules
Working people
Dark money
Good things
Take back power
Diverse
New candidates

Level Playing Field Has Substantial Impact Among those in Mobilization Segment
Progressive
base
Mobilization/
motivation
Conservative
base
Non-
conservatives
Level field 28% 37% 22% 25%
Bi-partisan 16% 14% 30% 20%
Honest 15% 14% 20% 17%
Rules 9% 10% 10% 9%
Working people 9% 4% 7% 8%
Dark money 10% 8% 3% 8%
Good things 5% 4% 1% 6%
Take back power 6% 4% 2% 4%
New candidates 1% 2% 4% 2%
Diverse 2% 3% 1% 1%
% Best
Idea

Also Little Variance in Cynicism Diffusers Rank Order by Race
White Respondents
Level field
Bi-partisan
Honest
Rules
Working people
Dark money
Good things
New candidates
Take back power
Diverse
Best
idea
Worst
idea
Latino Respondents
Level field
Bi-partisan
Honest
Rules
Working people
Dark money
Good things
Take back power
Diverse
New candidates
Non-white Respondents
Level field
Bi-partisan
Honest
Rules
Working people
Dark money
Good things
Take back power
New candidates
Diverse

Bi-Partisanship Pops More with Anglo Voters While Collective Action Among “Working
People” Has More Reach Among Latinos
Level field 23% 29% 26%
Bi-partisan 26% 18% 17%
Honest 18% 20% 20%
Rules 10% 5% 8%
Working people 5% 14% 13%
Dark money 6% 8% 8%
Good things 5% 1% 3%
Take back power 4% 2% 3%
New candidates 3% 1% 2%
Diverse 1% 1% 1%
% Best
Idea

The Most Popular Phrases To Describe What We Should Do With The Political System In
Arizona Are “Fix It” and “Reform It”
Very few voters want to “maintain it”
Q.51 Which of the following phrases comes closest to your own opinion about what we should do with the political system
in Arizona?

Voters of All Segments Want To Fix Or Reform The Political System in Arizona
Q.51 Which of the following phrases comes closest to your own opinion about what we should do with the political system
in Arizona?
Progressive
Base
Motivation/
Mobilization
Conservative
Base
Non-
conservatives
Fix it 28% 27% 31% 26%
Reform it 22% 20% 19% 22%
Transform it 17% 14% 12% 19%
Modernize it 17% 19% 11% 15%
Change it 13% 12% 5% 13%
Maintain it 0% 2% 10% 2%
None of these 2% 6% 13% 3%
Phrase for Political System in Arizona By Segment

Self-Described Republicans Outnumber Self-Described Democrats
Q.37 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, an Independent, or a Republican?
Q.38 (IF INDEPENDENT IN Q37) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic party or the Republican
party?
Total Democrat
37%
Total Republican
43%

A Plurality Of Self-Described Independent Voters Think Neither Political Party Will Help
People Like Them
However, a narrow plurality of these voters say the Republican party will harm people like them
Q.39 (IF INDEPENDENT IN Q37) If you had to choose, which party do you think is more likely to HELP people like you?
Q.40 (IF INDEPENDENT IN Q37) If you had to choose, which party do you think is more likely to HARM people like you?

Two-Thirds of Democrats Are Proud Democrats, But Only A Quarter Are Excited
About The Future Of The Party
Q.41 (IF DEMOCRAT IN Q37) Would you call yourself a proud Democrat or not?
Q.42 (IF DEMOCRAT IN Q37) Would you say you are most excited or worried about the future of the Democratic party?

Six-in-Ten Republicans Are Proud Republicans, But A Plurality Are Worried
About Their Party’s Future
Q.43 (IF REPUBLICAN IN Q37) Would you call yourself a proud Republican or not?
Q.44 (IF REPUBLICAN IN Q37) Would you say you are most excited or worried about the future of the Republican party?

Three-in-Ten Voters Report Having Changed Their Party Identification
A plurality of those who have switched their party identification have changed to become an independent or third party member
Q.45 At any point in your life have you made the decision to change your political party identification?
Q.46 (IF YES IN Q45) Please select the decision or decisions to change political parties that most closely matches what
you’ve done in the past.
Total changed to Dem:
25%
Total changed to Ind:
39%
Total changed to Rep:
30%

Nearly Half of Voters Describe Themselves As Moderates
Among self-described liberals, opinions split on whether their ideology is best described as liberal or progressive
Q.47 Thinking in political terms, would you say that you are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Q.48 (IF LIBERAL IN Q47) And if you had to choose, would you use the term “liberal” or “progressive” to describe your
political ideology?

AZ = Narrative Project - Statewide Poll

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