From Leadership Institute Training 7/20/13

1. GET OUT THE VOTE
The Leadership Institute GOTV

2. True or False?
GOTV should be focused on
getting as many voters out
to the polls as possible.
The Leadership Institute GOTV

3. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV
Objective
 Get out YOUR vote of identified supporters.
 Target supporters and swing voters who you
identified through microtargeting and
previous voter identification efforts.

4. GOTV
Low-propensity voters
vs.
High-propensity voters
The Leadership Institute GOTV

5. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV
Know the election laws in your state, and
prepare a timeline based on voting schedule.
 Absentee ballots.
 Early voting.
 Military voting.
 Election day voting.

6. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Absentee ballots
Important considerations.
 When are absentee ballots sent out.
 How quickly absentee ballots are returned.
 Postmarked or returned by Election Day.
Who is casting absentee ballots.
 Low propensity voters are more valuable.

7. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: AB/EV
2012 Election: Analysis of AB/EV in Florida.
Obama Romney
High-propensity voter 58% 71%
Low-propensity voter 27% 22%
Never voted 15% 7%

8. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Absentee ballot chase program
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Contact

9. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Early voting
Important considerations.
 Know satellite voting locations and times.
Early voting program.
 Hold large events near early voting locations.
 Petition to get satellite voting locations at
advantageous locations and times.

10. The Leadership Institute GOTV
Mobilization methods
 Door-to-Door.
 Phone calls.
 Direct mail.
 Robocalls.
 Literature drops.
 Television ads.
 Radio ads.
 Online ads.
 Social media.
 Events.
GOTV

11. The Leadership Institute GOTV
Get Out The Vote:
How to Increase
Voter Turnout
Donald P. Green
Alan S. Gerber
GOTV

12. GOTV: Door-to-door

13. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Door-to-door
Most effective method for GOTV
 Effectiveness: 1 vote per 14 contacts.
 Estimate 6 contacts per hour.
 Mobilizing effect for the entire household.

14. GOTV: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
Advanced data modeling
makes person-to-person
contact more efficient and
effective.
The Leadership Institute GOTV

15. GOTV: Phone calls

16. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Phone calls
Volunteer phone calls
 Effectiveness: 1 vote per 38 contacts.
 Estimate 16 contacts per hour.
Commercial live calls
 No special coaching: 1 vote per 180 contacts.
 With special coaching: 1 vote per 35 contacts.

17. Warning!
From 2008 to 2012, the
contact rate for phone calls
in the Obama campaign
dropped from 23% to 16%.
The Leadership Institute GOTV

18. GOTV: Direct mail

19. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Direct mail
Partisan direct mail
 Large number of studies show the average
effect cannot be large.
 There are exceptions based on the message.
Nonpartisan direct mail
 Effectiveness: 1 vote per 200 contacts.
 Borderline insignificant.

20. Question
Based on current research,
what is the most effective
message to use in a GOTV
appeal?
The Leadership Institute GOTV

21. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV: Social pressure experiment
Field experiment with four treatments
1. Do your civic duty and vote!
2. You are being studied!
3. Who votes is public information!
4. What if your neighbors knew whether you
voted?
Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election
among 344,084 registered voters

22. The Leadership Institute GOTV
Increase in turnout compared to control group
1. Civic duty mailing: 1.8%
2. Hawthorne mailing: 2.6%
3. Self mailing: 4.9%
4. Neighbors mailing: 8.1%
Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election
among 344,084 registered voters
GOTV: Social pressure experiment

23. Most effective GOTV message
Apply social pressure to
motivate people to vote.
The Leadership Institute GOTV

24. The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV
Final Thoughts
 Target GOTV efforts to YOUR supporters.
 Leverage data to make GOTV efforts more
efficient and effective.
 Door-to-door is the most effective
mobilization method.
 Applying social pressure is the most effective
way to drive an unlikely voter to the polls.

25. QUESTIONS
The Leadership Institute GOTV
GOTV