As a journalist, who has covered the fleet industry for over a decade, I spend a lot of time talking with smart people about the intersection of technology and transportation—specifically, the rise of vehicle automation and how that might impact our world in fleet. And that’s what we focus on in this talk, as I share with you what I’ve learned from my conversations and research.

1. Autonomous Vehicles and the Impact on Fleet
Sean M. Lyden—Journalist & Editor

2. Background: Sean Lyden
• Editor, Utility Fleet Professional magazine
• Journalist covering fleet for more than a
decade
• Producer/ Host Utility Fleet Conference
2017 @ ICUEE
• Speaker on topics pertaining to The Future
of Transportation

3. Our Story Begins in 2009 …

4. Our Story Begins in 2009 …
Image: Google
• Google launches self-driving car
program
• One of Google’s “Moonshots”
• Spurred competition from
automakers and tech sector

5. Agenda
1.Why Care? 3 Reasons
2.Key Terms to Know
3.Top 6 Trends
4.The 3 Biggest Hurdles
5.What’s the Impact on Fleet?
6.The Bottom Line
7.Discussion: Q&A

6. Why Care?

7. Reason #1: Safety
Annual Road Crash
Fatalities
• Global—1.25 million
• U.S.—40,200 (2016)
Image: CBS San Francisco
Sources: World Health Organization;
National Safety Council

8. Reason #1: Safety
1.25 million road fatalities…
“That’s equivalent to a 737
[airliner] falling from the sky
every hour of every day all year
long.”
~ John Krafcik, CEO, Waymo
Image: Boeing

9. Reason #1: Safety
The Problem? Us
94% of vehicular crashes tied
to human error—NHTSA
Image: ABC

10. Reason #1: Safety
If humans are the problem…
And removing the human driver is the solution…
Is societal adoption of autonomous vehicles a moral imperative?
THAT’s a powerful argument for spurring regulatory action

11. Reason #2: Productivity
Ave. commute (to-and-
from work) for U.S.
workers = 50.2 minutes
Ford Patents Retractable Table for AVs
U.S. Census Bureau

12. Reason #2: Productivity
Imagine this scenario …
• On-demand service trucks on shared network
• Removable tool and equipment “pods”
• Autonomous parts delivery
• Paperwork completed during commute—no sitting time

13. Reason #2: Productivity
“Yes, your vision of the future service organization is one possible
scenario. It could mean field service companies may no longer
need to own or manage a fleet. The independent vehicle fleet
would have a selection of vehicles that would drop of technicians
and tool pods at the site and deliver parts as needed”
— Dave Alexander, Navigant Research

14. Reason #2: Productivity
“The scenario you suggest is likely to occur. The introduction of
autonomous vehicles means we will see a completely different
vehicle ownership model with users tending to rent out the
vehicles rather than owning one themselves.”
— Sam Barker, Juniper Research

15. Reason #3: It’s Not a Matter of If But When…
“Fleets are going to take their time to learn about the practicality
of self-driving vehicles just as they do with any new technology.
The use of the vehicles will be very closely monitored and limited
to a small number of selected fleet customers in specific
sectors—such as a taxi service. I would say that 2030 is when
autonomous vehicles really become mainstream [in fleets.]”
—Dave Alexander, Navigant Research

16. Reason #3: It’s Not a Matter of If But When…
20 million fully autonomous vehicles will be on the road globally
by 2025, with consumer adoption set to take off in 2021.
—Juniper Research

17. Reason #3: It’s Not a Matter of If But When…

18. Reason #3: It’s Not a Matter of If But When…
“November or December of this year
[2017], we should be able to go from
a parking lot in California to a
parking lot in New York, no controls
touched at any point during the
entire journey.”
— Elon Musk, CEO Tesla
Image: TED

19. Key Terms

20. The Anatomy of Autonomy
• The Eyes: 5 Sensor Technologies
• The Brain: Machine Learning
• The Nervous System: ADAS
Image: discoveryeye.org

21. The Eyes: 5 Sensor Technologies

22. Sensor Technology #1: Lidar
Light Detection And Ranging
Image: Popular Science

23. Sensor Technology #2: Cameras
“Eyes” to Read Signs, Spot Obstacles
Image: Mobileye

24. Sensor Technology #3: Radar
Radio Waves to Measure Speed and Distance
Image: Autobytel

25. Sensor Technology #4: Sonar
Ultrasonic Range Finding
Image: Tesla

26. Sensor Technology #5: V2X
Vehicle-to-(Vehicle/ Pedestrian/ Infrastructure/ Everything)
Image: Denso Global

27. The Brain: Machine Learning

28. Machine Learning
• Type of artificial intelligence
• System “learns” and adapts
on its own
• “Learning” can also occur
across the fleet network
Image: Intel

29. The Nervous System: ADAS

30. ADAS=Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
Faster Than Human Reflexes…
• Adaptive Cruise Control
• Lane Departure Warning
• Collision Avoidance Systems
• Blind Spot Detection
• Part Assist
Image: Freightliner

31. What Exactly Does “Autonomous” Mean?

32. The 6 Levels of Autonomy
Image: NHTSA/ SAE

33. Top 6 Trends

34. Trend #1: OEMs Expanding ADAS Options
2018 Freightliner Cascadia 2018 Ford F-150

35. Trend #1: OEMs Expanding ADAS Options
AV Impact:
• Building-block technologies
• Economies of scale
• Lower system costs
• Better performance
Image: Freightliner

36. Trend #2: Increased Vehicle Connectivity
AV Impact:
• Over-the-air updates
• V2X
• Crowd-sourced mapping
• Platooning
• Remote control
Image: Department of Transportation

37. Trend #3: On-Demand Transportation
AV Impact:
• Shift in attitudes (and behavior):
ownership vs. on-demand
• New OEM business models—Sales
vs. Services
• Early use cases for the networked
autonomous fleet
Image: Uber

38. Trend #4: Cost Break-Throughs
AV Impact:
• Greater system redundancy
• Higher safety performance
• Lower cost, wider market
appeal
Waymo: Proprietary design reduced Lidar cost from $75,000 a few years ago
to around $7,500 today

39. Trend #5: Race to Autonomy
AV Impact:
• Money
• Momentum
• Miles

40. Trend #6: Political Momentum
AV Impact:
• Cooperation—and momentum
• Fed framework vs. state
patchwork
• Guidelines for development
Images: Wired, NHTSA

41. The 3 Biggest Hurdles

42. Hurdle #1: Fear
• 75% of U.S. drivers said they would
be afraid to ride in a self-driving
vehicle
• Generational breakdown:
Millennial (73%), Gen X (75%),
Boomer (85%)
• 54% would feel less safe sharing
the road with fully autonomous
vehicles
Source: AAA Report

43. Hurdle #1: Fear

44. Hurdle #2: Machine Ethics
M.I.T. Study
• 76% say it’s “more
moral” for AV to
sacrifice one passenger
to save 10 pedestrians
• …unless you’re the
passenger

45. Hurdle #3: Politics
• House Bill SELF-DRIVE Act excludes commercial trucks above
10,000 lbs. GVWR
• Senate considering adding commercial trucks—w/ Navistar and
ATA advocating for inclusion
• Teamsters lobbying against commercial truck inclusion—impact
on jobs
• Long-term challenges: Agreement on ethical frameworks,
licensed driver requirement vs. full autonomy, etc.

46. What’s the Impact on Fleet?

47. Potential Fleet Impact…
• Driver training—b/w levels of automation
• Vehicle specification & driver policies
• Risk management
• Fleet vehicle upfits and equipment
• Vehicle lifecycles and ownership vs. on-demand model
• Maintenance operations

48. The Bottom Line
• So much has happened in only 8 years
• Level 3 autonomous vehicles on market by 2021
• Latest trends point to a self-driving future
• Yet, big hurdles, many questions remain
• But one thing’s for sure: There will be impacts on fleet
So…How will you adapt?

49. Discussion: Q & A
Sean M. Lyden
Editor, Utility Fleet Professional
sean@utilityfleetprofessional.com